investment question: opinions wanted

fab4 · February 19, 2004 8:52PM

my sister came to my hotel in florida for a visit at christmas. during this time i had cards going to psa for grading , i had auctions ending on ebay plus i had a few off line sales going. it was a good time where i was making money off all the cards.

yesterday she calls and wants to send me $50,000 to invest in cards. now the question is: what is a good investment. do you take a chance at 1 big card. do you buy sets and grade them and ebay them. (i have 3 businesses already and do not want to open another)also if i found something that great why wouldn't i put my own $50,000, up to make a profit. she is looking short term. the reason i am asking here is it worth the effort to buy registry sets and break them up and sell individual cards

anything helpful.

.......fab4.........

brianwintersfan · February 19, 2004 9:04PM

As much as I love this hobby I don't think I would invest $50,000 in the hopes of making money.
I think her money could be put to better use in something that would guarantee her some sort of return.
Just my 2 cents

fab4 · February 19, 2004 9:30PM

this is play money as she calls it. she has all the solid investments. she has a 177 rental houses, she has commercial property, everything her financial planner can think of. she is looking for something fun but i know her too well she doesn't want to loose 1 cent. i can't think of anything that i would invest 50,000. into in the hobby (if someone can show me i would put my own money into it) .

.....fab4.......

she is the one that gave me my first cards. she collected in the early 60's. i was born in 59 and i remember when i was 6 she would give us cards when we were good when she was the babysitter. i had 2 older brothers and she would take the 63 rookies and cut them into fourths so every one could have one. no telling how many rose and stargell rookies were cut up.

CDC4 · February 19, 2004 9:39PM

I wouldn't "invest" 50K with hope that you could make a return in a "short term" period. I think it's so risky to TRY to invest in cards. You could make money but then again you could just as quickly lose money. I think there are better areas to invest 50K for a short term period than baseball cards.

1420sports · February 19, 2004 9:52PM

It sounds as if this is sorta experimental for her, as she obviously has assets and financials to allow such an investment. That being said, I would invest in Arod for the short term

Vargha · February 19, 2004 9:54PM

Firstly, I wouldn't put it into a single card. The market is too narrow and therefore more volatile for them. Secondly, how much effort are you going to put into acquiring and handling them? Buying large lots and splitting them up would offer the best upside IMO.

fab4 · February 19, 2004 10:18PM

the problem on my end is i have no time. even though she is family i don't put my time and effort into making someone else money. it is a fun thing for her but as i tell her you are playing with real dollars.

on her end she would have the time but the knowledge is something she would have to learn. my opinion is that she will find out the auctions, the packaging, the going to the post office, the non-paying customers and when you get finished for your 1st month and make $100. profit is it worth it.

i am asking for opinions as i am going to send her the responses, good bad or ugly. i want her to know the down side or the up side..

.........fab4........

1954 · February 19, 2004 10:21PM

Fab4- I think it would be a conflict of interest in my opinion. You purchase something that you like that has potential for financial gains. This is only natural because you are buying what you would want. You then get it graded and score a great card. Now what do you do with the card? The only thing that I would do if I had someones money is purchase items that I know to be great investments....ie, unopened boxes from the early 70's and 60's. Give those items to her and let her dispose of those when she is ready. I think this would be very hard to do for anyone.

1954

carew4me · February 19, 2004 10:26PM

Fab4, Probably been asked before...
Where's your hotel in FL?

fab4 · February 19, 2004 10:38PM

<< . I think this would be very hard to do for anyone. >>

i agree as if i see a potential for making money on a card or cards i would do it for me.it's only human nature. this why the opinions are so great. i don't want her to lose her money and i don't want to be held accountable for it either. a lot of people (my sister included) think you buy cards send them to psa collect a bunch of 10's and make a killing when you sell them. we all need to look at our first submission,and remember how disappointed we were. i think in the graded card world it is a whole lot easier to lose money than make it. you have to take into acoount the trimmed cards, the fake cards, the doctored or recolored cards. and the time included is not a little, to me you have to invest your time and money. one watches after the other.

thanks again everybody.

.....fab4....

my hotel is in the panhandle of florida about 30 miles from destin and about 45 minutes from panama city

BobS · February 19, 2004 11:44PM

I'll go out on a limb here, but how could you go wrong buying 50-60's un-opened material? Even on the short term, if you could find a source with multi-pack lots (mastro?), you could prob. get them at a reduced per-pack rate. It seems that every year, the price for these goes up and up and up, NEVER down. I challenge anyone to point out a specific situation in which they LOST money buying and re-selling 50's-60's un-opened material (of coarse, opening them to grade out/sell is a different story).

fab4 · February 19, 2004 11:51PM

i agree with 1954 and bob s. the unopened packs seem to be the best bet. less chance of losing money and no upkeep. it's not like graded cards when a few new 10's pop and the value of your 1/1 goes down in half. thanks for all the help. i think a decision has been made. let the hunt begin.

thanks................fab4

BobS · February 19, 2004 11:58PM

Fab4 -

Also forgot to mention, if she is realy interested in a short term/high gain potential investment, I'm looking for someone to "stake" my entry into this years World Series of Poker. It's "only" 10G. I'll pay back 75% of my winnings. She cant lose

Basilone · February 20, 2004 12:06AM

BobS-

I was thinking the same thing! She could hire 5 of us to take it to the final table!

Fab4-

I you must invest in sports collectibles with the money...I say go straight to the Mastro Auction this spring and do not pass go!

Heck..maybe she will let you bust one of those packs!

John

BobS · February 20, 2004 12:16AM

John - do you have some sort of poker radar?

Hmmmmm, five people, at 10G a pop does=50G. This "investment" sounds better and better. Any takers?

fab4 · February 20, 2004 12:16AM

<< Also forgot to mention, if she is realy interested in a short term/high gain potential investment, I'm looking for someone to "stake" my entry into this years World Series of Poker. It's "only" 10G. I'll pay back 75% of my winnings >>

how do you think she made her money. you have to watch her bet on the river card

.......fab4........

Fuzz · February 20, 2004 12:28AM

A pack find has the same chance of bursting the bubble that a few new 10's would have. I believe that you can make money in cards. But regardless of what you buy, it will take some time, energy and a lot of thought. It will also result in sleepless nights down the road as events materialize. None of which you seem to have the time for.
The best investment you can make is to send her money back..

GoSoxBoSox · February 20, 2004 12:35AM

If she's gonna do it I'd look for good deals on mid-grade cards from this list.

I would keep it to cards pre-ww II. Never under estimate the future value of these cards in mid-grade. I strongly believe they will continue to grow.

fab4 · February 20, 2004 12:38AM

<< But regardless of what you buy, it will take some time, energy and a lot of thought. It will also result in sleepless nights down the road as events materialize >>

no such thing as sleepless nights. we are talking about buying boxes of 50's and 60's cards and we are only talking about 50 grand. i have been collecting since 77, had the card shop in the late 80's been to many shows, set up at many shows, the same as 75% of the people that collect. if the bottom fall out you can easily re-coup 50% of your money. if it hits another hot streak you can make 50% on your money. i track every registry set that comes up for sale and weigh the break-up potential compared to investment compared to time spent to the actual return that goes in my pocket. and after putting a pen and paper to it my time would be better spent at walmart making 5.25 an hour on most. i think wax is a no brainer.

.....fab4......

dstudeba · February 20, 2004 1:03AM

I agree with fuzz. There are few places to make money without risk. No offense to anyone, but the baseball card market isn't an especially hard market to understand. Therefore there are planty of other knowledgeable investors/collectors out there who are looking for deals also. Take lmayer for instance. Looking at his auction wins he gets plenty of good deals that other people just miss that he can flip for a nice profit. The problem is he wins a couple of auctions per day (at great prices) but he has to take the time to bid on tons of auctions to get those few great deals. My guess is he really enjoys looking at the cards and getting those few 'steals' so it is worth it to him. That is one thing if you enjoy it, but if you are doing it for someone else..... Like I said before, there are plenty of knowledgeable people on this board alone with the capital to invest. In my opinion there are more overpriced lots than deals in the Mastro auction.

Send the money back. If she still wants to invest, tell her to look for the things she thinks are good and ask your advice when she wants to buy, but make her do the leg work.

Just my opinions, no offense ment to anyone.

GoSoxBoSox · February 20, 2004 1:05AM

<< Send the money back. If she still wants to invest, tell her to look for the things she thinks are good and ask your advice when she wants to buy, but make her do the leg work. >>

To be honest...it's hard to argue your point.

onegaucho · February 20, 2004 1:15AM

I'd agree with the sentiment that cards aren't the place to 'invest' money. Sure, I hope to turn a profit on a few cards here and there, but my 'safe' money is in retirment and stock/fund accounts.

If you get into this hobby, it should be for the fun of it. $50k is some serious change. I'd consider going the route of getting something in the upcoming Mastro or Superior auction. There are usually high end 'lots' of material that, when broken up, yield more money sold separately, than as a single lot.

Back in 99, my 'small' investment of $1000 into a lot of 1300 1973 NRMT/MINT singles is still paying off well into the black.

fab4 · February 20, 2004 1:33AM

<< f you get into this hobby, it should be for the fun of it. >>

, everything i put money into, be it cards,land or even a slot machine i expect a return on.

<< Send the money back. If she still wants to invest, tell her to look for the things she thinks are good and ask your advice when she wants to buy, but make her do the leg work. >> >>

even better i am going to set her up with a dealer from texas i have known for years. he owes me a few favors let him do the leg work and run it by us. if it craps out i'm off the hook if it hits i am a genius and again a no lose situation for me.

.....fab4.......

onegaucho · February 20, 2004 1:39AM

In any case, keep us posted.

It's always neat to watch the spending habits of others, especially when we're talking relatively high dollar amounts... similar to watching high end rollers play blackjack in Vegas.

Good Luck!

scottsusor · February 20, 2004 1:52AM

Funny thing -- My wife and I were just discussing this EXACT thing the other day. Last year I decided to retire from the computer career I had for 22 years and we're both doing our own business ventures now -- one of mine is baseball memorabilia buying/selling and I've done pretty well at it. My wife's reaction was like your sister's -- she said I should go "bigger and better." I told her that in order for me to go "bigger and better" I'd need a silent investor that would split the profits 50/50 -- their money and my leg work.

Hey, I'm in Texas!

Scott

purelyPSA · February 20, 2004 5:09AM

Better make sure that silent partner is indeed "silent". Take it from someone who found out for himself.

And if indeed the equation is as follows: 1 silent partner reluctant to lose money + 1 active trader with no time to spare, then I think it has an overwhelming chance of failure. No half measures can be taken, because - ask any dealer on the boards here - it's a jungle out there in card land.

JMHO

Steve

jmullen · February 20, 2004 5:27AM

If she is into basketball, I know some truly rare basketball cards that are for sale. Problem is, they are very expensive. For example, I know of a 1950 Royal Dessert Mikan, Blue Variation, still on the box for sale at $23,000. I would say buy 5 really rare, and old, $10,000 cards. That is the only way to invest in sportscards.

Jeff

TheCARDKid · February 20, 2004 5:34AM

If I had $50 k to invest, I'd look to 3 areas:

Large lots at Mastro and Superior which could be broken up.

Unopened wax from the 1950's, 1960's and possibly the 70's (rare 70's packs such as 71/72 Topps basketball for example).

Rare Mint 9 pre WWII cards. There is less risk of new Mint 9's coming on the market. This is assuming you can buy them for a reasonable price.

RobE · February 20, 2004 5:35AM

Too bad you have no time.

If someone handed me 50K and said go shopping for sports cards I think I'd figure out a way to make something happen if the time was available.Too bad you can't do it in smaller bites and not 50K in a week, then in a month have to sell umpteen cards to either break even or earn some type of return off 50K.

Maybe go and put a few ads out in the paper,locate collections should be factored in as an option.

You are going to have to sit down and make some serious plans with your sister because it sounds like she wants to drop all that money in one shot and get it back the next day and you know flipping cards doesn't happen over night.Just tell her the risks involved and hopefully you'll be able to go build a nice collection for her where some of which you can flip for some sort of return.

Regardless of the difficulties and risk involed,I'd like to have your problem right now.

scottsusor · February 20, 2004 6:22AM

The key to any partnership venture like this is a strong and detailed business plan, in writing up front, agreed upon and signed off on by both partners. In other words, we can speculate all we want on the best places to invest, what to buy, where to get it, what to do with it once you have it, etc. etc. etc. but unless there is a concrete formula in place, the risks far outweigh the benefits. If we're talking $50,000 in initial capital, the silent partner would have to understand that it won't/can't be all spent at once -- and it shouldn't. The working partner must seek out the investment vehicles outlined in the business plan, as opposed to throwing the money around willy-nilly. There also MUST be a payback schedule in the plan -- meaning, the silent partner (investor) must be aware of how much to expect to get paid, how often, etc. And the execution of the plan must be exact, or at least as exact as reasonably possible.

Partnerships can be risky things, but if done correctly, they can also pay off in a big way for both partners.

Scott

toppsgun · February 20, 2004 9:09AM

Here the ticket for her and I'm holding it (shameless plug):

A run of 100% complete raw vintage sets, strictly ExMt++ to NrMt to NrMt+, 1964, 65, 66, 67, 68. Book value $20,000. Break up value around $35,000. Sale price $25,000. Cherry pick the gradable cards and/or bust the sets, selling singles on ebay or private transactions. No way I have the time for it and I'm too cheap to hire some college kid to do it as a summer intern project.

Or just do what I'm doing now with them. Holding on until the vintage graded market drys up/subsides. Raw, complete, collectible-grade sets are always a good investment.

Take the other $25,000 and go crazy on raw vintage in the aforementioned auctions.

That divides the $50k half into rock solid safe stuff and half into speculative, go for broke stuff. PM me if she's interested.

shouldabeena10 · February 20, 2004 9:31AM

Hey Fab

After reading this post... I want those cards back I sold you so cheap last month

Actually, I'd decline her offer... nothing good usually comes out of relatives and investments. Even if they are just for fun .... money is money, and bad things could happen. (What if the box turns up searched wax or it gets lost in the mail, etc?). Just a thought.

Mike

PS - Notice how no one is mentioning newer cards? I always thought the quick flip big money was in the newer stuff. (I don't mess with it... but it intrigues me). I'd like to hear how someone like Joe Stalin would approach a scenario like this.

I also think this could make a cool little virtual game.... we all get $50,000 in play money to buy cards with at todays prices.... we meet back here in a year and see who made out the best (or something like that). It could be fun.

fab4 · February 20, 2004 8:52PM

i turned her over to my friend in texas. i am trying to get him to talk her out of it. she read the reponses yesterday and i even showed her the pm's i received with offers from new cards, wax , vintage sets and even had 2 people to invest for us, just send the money and i guarantee i can double it in 6 months.

i told her if i find a deal to invest 50 grand into and can make a good return on the money in short term, i would do it for me because that is business. i told her i would look for something that is a little more stable, such as a subway or domino's franchise. we will see.

thanks again everybody

FB · February 20, 2004 9:28PM

I think that shouldabeena10 hit the nail right on the head...

If you want to keep talking to the relatives - especially one who "doesn't want to lose a cent" - then definitely STAY OUT OF THE MIDDLE!!!!!! Turning her over to your dealer friend is probably the best thing that you can do... It won't get personal... and she can still call you for advice without YOU making the final decision for her.

But the most important thing to remember is that the baseball card, like the stock market is not easy for large, short-term gains. It can be done, but usually its a matter of grunt work breaking up large lots. Beyond that - you're dealing with luck, changes in attitude towards different cards and a host of other things that you have no control over.

pc · February 20, 2004 10:17PM

1934 batter ups psa 8

shouldabeena10 · February 21, 2004 12:03AM

Fab4

OK.... I figured it out for you.

I've got 50,000 cards worth $2 each that I will sell you for a buck a piece. She will double her money overnight! yeeehaaa (wouldn't it be nice if it were that simple).

As for the franchises, Subway sounds like a good move ... I hear the Storage USA's and the likes are doing well nowadays too. I think the Dominoe's boom days have past, although I guess it all still comes down to the same thing .... location, location, location.

Good Luck

Mike

jerster · February 21, 2004 12:11AM

Have her forward the money on to me, I welcome the challenge to turn the $50k around and provide a nice return on her investment in the sports card market.

Been doing it for years, why couldn't I do it now..?

fab4 · February 21, 2004 12:39AM

<< As for the franchises, Subway sounds like a good move >>

i have done quite a bit of research on subway and domino's they are both solid investments. as with anything being at the right place at the right time and investing money you are not afraid to lose is a good combination.

now it is up to her to make her mind up. i think i will go to subway for a horseradish melt. you can't do that with cards

.....fab4.......

BugOnTheRug · February 21, 2004 2:29PM

here's the facts:

1) she has 177 houses........good grief Charlie Brown!
2) she wants short-term for-sure profits.
3) you have no time to invest in breaking sets, etc.
4) it's family and we all know how money can alter friendships, family, etc.

Have her use part of the $50,000 and take flying lessons. Use the remaider, add $100,000 more, buy a nice mid 80's plane with up-to-date instrumentation and have the thrill of a lifetime. She won't make any money but she'll sure have fun! If she already flies, try the poker suggested above.

BOTR

ps. 177 houses? you gotta be kidding me! How the heII do you acquire 177 houses?!?!?!?

toppsgun · February 21, 2004 10:58PM

"177 houses? you gotta be kidding me! How the heII do you acquire 177 houses?!?!?!?"

The same way we acquire cards...one deal at a time.

CW · February 22, 2004 4:44AM

<< I also think this could make a cool little virtual game.... we all get $50,000 in play money to buy cards with at todays prices.... we meet back here in a year and see who made out the best (or something like that). It could be fun. >>

That could be fun, Mike. I was thinking about starting a thread like
that back in January, but I wasn't sure how you could include both modern
& vintage cards. You'd have to come up with an agreed upon price source,
like SMR, and that really wouldn't be accurate. It could be fun, though,
with the right setup. $50k to spend, maximum of maybe 100 cards, give
everyone a week to post their "portfolio" by a certain deadline, then
check back in a year. The winner should get some sort of prize, too...

Wabittwax · February 22, 2004 8:44PM

First off, I like the WSOP idea, I'm a big hold em player. Just kidding, don't invest in that.

Also I think unopened wax is way too risky. If you aren't an expert at spotting bad stuff, you will get bad stuff and lose a ton of money.

I would suggested spending a few months tracking $2,000 to $20,000 cards. About 100 or 200 of them. Make yourself extremely knowedgable in those cards only. When they come up for auction, low ball them for about 20% less than their average selling price. Whatever you win is almost a guaranteed money maker. Look at LMayer. I'm sure he's making a good profit at it. I've done it before and it has always worked. The problem is you spend a lot of time searching for them. But when it hits, it hits consistently in your favor.

1954 · February 22, 2004 10:25PM

PC-please don't let anyone else know about those 34 batter ups. We have enough competition on those as is. I do agree with you, but hope it remains quiet for another year or two.

Shane

Basilone · February 22, 2004 11:50PM

<< subway and domino's >>

Try Quizno's or open a California Pizza Kitchen franchise.

fab4 · February 22, 2004 11:56PM

<< Try Quizno's or open a California Pizza Kitchen franchise. >>

the Quizno's commercials scare me

.....fab4..........

scottsusor · February 23, 2004 4:31AM

Re: Those new Quizno's TV commercials. I don't know what the guy got for coming up with those ... But he should've got LIFE!

Scott

67standup · February 23, 2004 8:10AM

First, Quiznos strategy of connecting a singing rat with food is simply wrong. Carls Jr. equating food on your face with their product at least made some sense.

Anyway, if the way you look has anything to do with ROI, then investing in memorabilia/cards isn't the way to go based on the appearance and manners of many dealers/shop owners. Many have mentioned Mastro, but to be at that level were talking great timing and much more than $50K.

But if it's an exact buy list you seek, purchase a high grade Goudey Lajoi or T206 Plank. Or gather an extra $25K and buy a low end Wagner. Key is to combine rarity, market value and grade. That is, no PSA 10 Brett Rookie for 1000s of dollars. The guy who recommended PSA 9 pre-WWII cards has the right idea.

AlanAllen · February 23, 2004 8:32AM

<< 

<< Try Quizno's or open a California Pizza Kitchen franchise. >>

the Quizno's commercials scare me

.....fab4.......... >>

THEY GOT A PEPPER BAR!!

I love those commercials

investment question: opinions wanted

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