Early warning of a top in the Lincoln wheat market?

Coppernicus

Just a quick observation: I've noticed that some of the more common Lincoln wheats (PCGS graded) have begun to top out in price. In the last couple of months, average realized prices on ebay have flattened out or declined slightly. Also, a few semi-key prices peaked in December/January with the same coin going for less this month. Not a substantial decline, but not the straight up pattern of a few months ago.

This is not true of the key dates in higher/highest grades, but I'm sensing a cooling in the more common, even some semi-key dates in mid to lower grades. My database goes back over two years, and this is the first time I've seen a change in trend on some of these.

Anyone else see this?

Mike

indianabyron

Hey Coppernicus whats a 1925D going for it grades AU MS area. Ive actually managed to come into possession of 8 of them.


Byron

Coppernicus

Only data I have on the 25-D. Average prices in ebay auctions over the last 2 years or so.

1925 D 63 RB $76.10
1925 D 64 RB $160.00
1925 D 64 RD $303.00

Mike

merz2

Coppernicus
That is a very interesting observation.I started to collect a new series for me,and was less than pleased with the results.So I decided to go back to what I know.The Lincoln series is best for me.It might be at the right time.

LincolnCentMan

I have noticed that some of the more traditional semikeys in the short set have taken a real dive bomb as of late. Although I dont keep auction data, I know I used to get $175 for 36-S's in 66. They dropped to about $100 for a while and are now back up to around $140. The 1951P was around $150 a year+ or so. They dropped to about $100 for a while... I put a low ball bid in on one yesterday and won it for less than $70. The same is true of the 50-P. One just went for just under $70 on e-bay this morning. 52-P's are bringing right around $100 where they used to bring about $150. 48-P's are holding their own at around $140, although I just sold a screamer for about $60 over that. 47-P's have held their value at around $110 for some time. 46-P's, well, I havent seen any of those in 66 sell for a while. 53-P's are, to me, the most undervalued 66RD in the shortset. They're only bringing around $160 when they have pops below 200. The 49-P has been selling for over $400 consistantly and isnt even the toughest coin... this is most likely because of the PCGS price guide. That coin should, imho, carry less of a premium. The 54-P is holding it's own, but not going up. The weird part about that one is that it is hands-down, the toughest coin in the shortset to find in a PQ 66RD. One might argue the 35-S is as tough, or tougher. On that date, the quality of the grade rules the price. I have personally sold them for as little as $350 to as much as $750 (with a 90% buy back that I'd be happy to pay) for a screamer.

When it comes down to it, the average stuff seems to be going down. The screamers are at least holding their own, some is moving up. I would concider the mint marked pre-1928 red coins below $500 to be a good investment at this time. The low number top pops will also most likely continue to improve. The problem with those is getting them. Between Andy, Stewart, Wayne, Gerry, Billybee, and a few others.... geeez....

Well, that's my cent's worth.

David

dpoole

I essentially agree. I think the market is taking a breather in Lincoln wheats, rather than topping. There remains too much popularity, too much interest, too many Lincoln collectors and too much money around.