I use a little cooler to bring my lunch. Think of all the money I am saving on brown bags too. I could never see buying lunch everyday. I liked it even more when I lived closer to work so I could just go home for lunch.
Collector and Researcher of Liberty Head Nickels. ANA LM-6053
Dorkkarl my friend, who have you been listening to? Coin markets like all other markets go up and go DOWN. These pricey key coins will not keep just going up. In the Red book in 1990 a 1797 VF Bust halve was quoted at $26,000 in the 2004 edition the quote is $24,000 a decline of $2,000 in 14 years.Now don't come back and say, YA but you could not buy one for that. I know that, but these are legitimate reflections of what this well known publisher believed at the time of printing.
As far as people thinking about their coins as investment rather than a pure hobby. I would venture to say that over 50% of all the peole in this market think first of the money and second of the hole that is being filled. Please keep in mind that the thousands of dealers in the U.S. think only of the money, most are not big collectors. As far as I know most all of these dealers are making money each month and many have become rich from this.
Then there are the thousands of people like Coinlieutenant that posted this today,
"And I also recall that the only way that my family has ever made any money was through land and numismatics. The farm I talk about was bought with coins. It was sold for cash and part of that money went back into coins. So, indirectly, coins kept our family afloat through hard times. I believe in coins and I have done well with them the same way my dad did."
I am sure that even Donald Trump does not keep millions of dollars in a bank account doing nothing. His fortune is in assets.
hey Edson
there is a perfectly simple way to explain your wonderful post. go and play Monopoly sometime and see who wins the game. odds are it will always be the one who invests in property wisely and then puts up Houses and Hotels!! the sucker with his fortune in money tucked under the board will watch it slowly disappear.
hey GoldSaint
to further your point, look at some RedBook pricing a year before and a year after the major price runs of 1980 and 1989 as well as 1994. many coins still haven't caught up to where they were in 1989.
To add one more comment ot this thread, I spent an hour today in Austin Texas with a medium sized rare coin dealer, who sells by appointment only. His comment was this, "the market is very strange, lots of good coins have gone into strong hands. I am not seeing many people that are coming to sell, and I am not seeing many people that are coming to buy, its like the calm before some type of storm" My theory is, and its only a theory, many buyers of the rarer coins, and keys, are moving into a holding pattern, a wait and see attitude if you will.That does not mean good coins won't sell, but I think many will stop their very rapid price increases. As a Bust half collector I personally have just decided not to go looking for those top 4 big coins. The prices have just reach a place where I am afraid of this large of an investment.
Gold Saint, you are likely correct on a large number of strong buyers backing down. Personally, I have backed down quite a bit in the past 6 months, trying to buy only the most problem free and exacting specimens for long term keeping. But it is still near impossible to find any quantity of properly graded and desireable coins. For those of us who bought coins in the 1990 market and earlier, we take a big gulp everytime we buy one of the so-called newly graded coins of today.
Keets, you're basically saying that the training ground for all of those aspiring in business is to play monopoly...the world of business is as simple as that right? So if you don't buy houses and then hotels you lose. Sure, but what other way can you win in Monopoly? Nada. You can't be a coin dealers, or currency trader or entertainer or even a CEO. I think the game of "LIFE" (parker brothers?) is a better model than Funopoly!
Roadrunner, I don't think we are alone in this. I have had several PM'S an emails from other collectors all telling me the same thing. They are not sellers, but they have lost their aggression looking for the higher dollar items. It is not like any of us are truely out of the market, its just that everyone has become very picky, and your right everyone that has been in this for a long time has seen big corrections at just about the place we are at. Here is another interesting story my private dealer friend told me yesterday. " During the late seventies and early 80's one his clients was one of the few big money Bust half collectors in the U.S. This guy had my friend Larry buying every 1796 and 1797 Bust half he could find in fine to XF. he bought 12 of them trying to shorten supply and increase overall prices. At the end of his accumulation he paid neary $40,000 for a high VF. He held as long as he could but over the next ten years he ended up selling them all at an averae net of $15,000." I am sure someone will buy that 1797 Half that is currently $39,500 but how many buyers can there be in this market for these type grades. Truly rich people with 25 million up net worths want really high grade material they generally dont buy F, VF, XF, or low AU'S
KEYS notwithstanding, anything that has been promoted up will fall. I can state her with near certainty that MS65 09s-VDBs and the like will fall dramatically as this market finally turns long term. All this new and "long haul" collector money will head for the exits when they see their babies starting to fall or have less liquidity. Don't be naive and think that the $500 BILLION dollars of LIQUIDITY pumped into our system for each of the past 2 years hasn't had a dramatic effect on the coin market. When that liquidity rug is pulled out, coin prices are going to find it hard to stay up, collector coins or not. The overseas money has come to our shores to bring our coins back home with them because their currency buys more today then yesterday. The major thing keeping housing prices and coin prices pumped up right now is tons of newly created assets out of thin air.
Probably the best place to be is in coins that have experienced little to no price appreciation. I would have picked wheat cents not too long ago but even those have been run up. Maybe common date circ walkers or mercs are a good choice. It may well be that there will be almost no place to hide down the road.
Very Good Roadrunner, There have been several points here made about how many of our brothers and sisters are collectors and not investors, and I am sure that is true, but most coin collectors are also very conservative with their money. I think we tend to be more of the saver types than than big spenders. This is not to say we won't open our wallets if we can see that the price of a coin is fair, or a bargain. I don't know about the rest of you but I have a little place in my head that gets very nervous when I set down to look at a coin that I think may be over priced, or about to drop in value. In 2003 that nervousness did not go off much but in the last few months it seems to go off every time I start looking. I am sure this is my conservative side sending out a warning. How many others are getting a little nervous?
In all probability the loose money today will be replaced by lots more inflated dollars soon enough. This is no reason to put money into coins, stock, or real estate since there are no gaurantees that anything will necessarily keep up with inflation, but it seems likely that prices will continue to increase in an in- flationary enviroment with soaring demand.
While one day's action or one month's numbers hardly defines a trend, note that the CPI came in up .5 % last month and they're admitting the core rate is up to .2%!
What coins might hold their value in a downturn may well be a moot question for a few years yet.
roadrunner: If inflation rears its ugly head in the US and if our currency resumes its downward trend, then our coin prices will continue to rise (even if more costly to us, meaning a slow down in demand which will be far more than offset by increased demand from abroad since our coin prices will look like bargains to foreigners).
Hey Cladking and Oreville, As you both know we are all in agreement on the coming inflation. I just see no way around this, but what I think we might see as part of this is "stagflation". Remeber that, prices of everything go up, but peoples incomes stay the same. I still remember old Carter and his group doing everything they could to put in rent and price controls. The other thing I wonder about is when we will see the news stirring everyone up? it might be a year or two. In the mean time how many dealers can just sit and wait? As to the comment about Europeans and others coming in to buy up all the U.S. coins I will have to think about that one. I have been reading, and having a few discussions on the Darkside, and the feeling there is that many people overseas are just not as interested in this hobby as Americans. I think this is very evident by the lack of interest, and price increases, in their own material which contains many very cheap rarities.In a way I hate to say this, but if I still had plenty of money that's where I would be buying for inflation and not in the over priced U.S. market. I am not sure they want to come here and gamble that we might buy back what they bought for HIGH prices.
Most coin collectors even of world coins are in the US. There are many reasons for this but one of he biggest is that we developed a tradition of collecting back in the days that most countries had very small middle or upper classes. The Europeans are starting to get a little more of an interest in coins on a mass scale and it's largely an out growth of their switch to the Euro. They are collecting the euros and the recently obsolete coins. This may prove interesting since they set aside even fewer "moderns" than Americans in many cases.
Hey Cladking and Oreville, These are both very good points. Oreville, I dont know why I did not think about the Chinese buying American coins in mass. This is very interesting and I think you might be right. They actually have very little to collect there and there are so many fakes, of even Fat Man dollars etc. They would certainly be interested in our slabbed stuff and sophisticated U.S. market. If they love our McDonalds and Rock& Roll they are going to love our coins! What is your estimate on the timeing on this?
Goldsaint: The Chinese have one incredible connection with our coin collecting mania. The trade dollar.
I have heard that they are going nuts over trying to find chopmarked trade dollars in all grades especially mint state. I suspect that the collecting mania may generalize. The Japansese are no slouches in collecting US coins either, especially our gold. They crave very costly $4 stellas most of all.
I read the comment about feeling a little nervous currently in buying the higher dollar coins. Last year I purchased two 5 figure coins that I dearly wanted and hadn't regretted it in the slightest. In fact, Im glad to have bought them and happy to own them, and dont plan on selling even if the market down turns.
But, I am looking at one more coin that I really want, that will cost me in the 11-12k range. But for the first time I am feeling a little uneasy about going ahead and buying. The buy price is currently elevated substantially higher than it should be because of the super demand on this specific coin. It's not really a "rare" coin as they are available from time to time, but I question my self is is too risky to buy in at that elevated price, if it were to downturn, as I believe this coin would be affected substantially. At the same time this coin has experienced strong price gains each month for the last year and if I dont pick up one now, could it be even more costly in the short term?
For those curious, It is not a modern era coin or a piece of plastic with a high grade on it.
Comments
As far as people thinking about their coins as investment rather than a pure hobby. I would venture to say that over 50% of all the peole in this market think first of the money and second of the hole that is being filled. Please keep in mind that the thousands of dealers in the U.S. think only of the money, most are not big collectors.
As far as I know most all of these dealers are making money each month and many have become rich from this.
Then there are the thousands of people like Coinlieutenant that posted this today,
"And I also recall that the only way that my family has ever made any money was through land and numismatics. The farm I talk about was bought with coins. It was sold for cash and part of that money went back into coins. So, indirectly, coins kept our family afloat through hard times. I believe in coins and I have done well with them the same way my dad did."
hey Edson
there is a perfectly simple way to explain your wonderful post. go and play Monopoly sometime and see who wins the game. odds are it will always be the one who invests in property wisely and then puts up Houses and Hotels!! the sucker with his fortune in money tucked under the board will watch it slowly disappear.
hey GoldSaint
to further your point, look at some RedBook pricing a year before and a year after the major price runs of 1980 and 1989 as well as 1994. many coins still haven't caught up to where they were in 1989.
al h.
NEVER LET HIPPO MOUTH OVERLOAD HUMMINGBIRD BUTT!!!
WORK HARDER!!!!
Millions on WELFARE depend on you!
Keets, you're basically saying that the training ground for all of those aspiring in business is to play monopoly...the world of business is as simple as that right? So if you don't buy houses and then hotels you lose. Sure, but what other way can you win in Monopoly? Nada. You can't be a coin dealers, or currency trader or entertainer or even a CEO. I think the game of "LIFE" (parker brothers?) is a better model than Funopoly!
roadrunner
Here is another interesting story my private dealer friend told me yesterday. " During the late seventies and early 80's one his clients was one of the few big money Bust half collectors in the U.S. This guy had my friend Larry buying every 1796 and 1797 Bust half he could find in fine to XF. he bought 12 of them trying to shorten supply and increase overall prices. At the end of his accumulation he paid neary $40,000 for a high VF. He held as long as he could but over the next ten years he ended up selling them all at an averae net of $15,000."
I am sure someone will buy that 1797 Half that is currently $39,500 but how many buyers can there be in this market for these type grades. Truly rich people with 25 million up net worths want really high grade material they generally dont buy F, VF, XF, or low AU'S
karlgoetzmedals.com
secessionistmedals.com
I can state her with near certainty that MS65 09s-VDBs and the like will fall dramatically as this market finally turns long term. All this new and "long haul" collector money will head for the exits when they see their babies starting to fall or have less liquidity. Don't be naive and think that the $500 BILLION dollars of LIQUIDITY pumped into our system for each of the past 2 years hasn't had a dramatic effect on the coin market. When that liquidity rug is pulled out, coin prices are going to find it hard to stay up, collector coins or not. The overseas money has come to our shores to bring our coins back home with them because their currency buys more today then yesterday. The major thing keeping housing prices and coin prices pumped up right now is tons of newly created assets out of thin air.
Probably the best place to be is in coins that have experienced little to no price appreciation. I would have picked wheat cents not too long ago but even those have been run up. Maybe common date circ walkers or mercs are a good choice. It may well be that there will be almost no place to hide down the road.
roadrunner
dollars soon enough. This is no reason to put money into coins, stock, or real
estate since there are no gaurantees that anything will necessarily keep up
with inflation, but it seems likely that prices will continue to increase in an in-
flationary enviroment with soaring demand.
While one day's action or one month's numbers hardly defines a trend, note that
the CPI came in up .5 % last month and they're admitting the core rate is up to
.2%!
What coins might hold their value in a downturn may well be a moot question for
a few years yet.
True, using many IF's here.
As you both know we are all in agreement on the coming inflation. I just see no way around this, but what I think we might see as part of this is "stagflation". Remeber that, prices of everything go up, but peoples incomes stay the same. I still remember old Carter and his group doing everything they could to put in rent and price controls. The other thing I wonder about is when we will see the news stirring everyone up? it might be a year or two. In the mean time how many dealers can just sit and wait? As to the comment about Europeans and others coming in to buy up all the U.S. coins I will have to think about that one. I have been reading, and having a few discussions on the Darkside, and the feeling there is that many people overseas are just not as interested in this hobby as Americans. I think this is very evident by the lack of interest, and price increases, in their own material which contains many very cheap rarities.In a way I hate to say this, but if I still had plenty of money that's where I would be buying for inflation and not in the over priced U.S. market. I am not sure they want to come here and gamble that we might buy back what they bought for HIGH prices.
but one of he biggest is that we developed a tradition of collecting back in the days that
most countries had very small middle or upper classes. The Europeans are starting to
get a little more of an interest in coins on a mass scale and it's largely an out growth of
their switch to the Euro. They are collecting the euros and the recently obsolete coins.
This may prove interesting since they set aside even fewer "moderns" than Americans in
many cases.
These are both very good points.
Oreville, I dont know why I did not think about the Chinese buying American coins in mass.
This is very interesting and I think you might be right. They actually have very little to collect there and there are so many fakes, of even Fat Man dollars etc. They would certainly be interested in our slabbed stuff and sophisticated U.S. market. If they love our McDonalds and Rock& Roll they are going to love our coins! What is your estimate on the timeing on this?
I have heard that they are going nuts over trying to find chopmarked trade dollars in all grades especially mint state. I suspect that the collecting mania may generalize. The Japansese are no slouches in collecting US coins either, especially our gold. They crave very costly $4 stellas most of all.
But, I am looking at one more coin that I really want, that will cost me in the 11-12k range. But for the first time I am feeling a little uneasy about going ahead and buying. The buy price is currently elevated substantially higher than it should be because of the super demand on this specific coin. It's not really a "rare" coin as they are available from time to time, but I question my self is is too risky to buy in at that elevated price, if it were to downturn, as I believe this coin would be affected substantially. At the same time this coin has experienced strong price gains each month for the last year and if I dont pick up one now, could it be even more costly in the short term?
For those curious, It is not a modern era coin or a piece of plastic with a high grade on it.