Options
Do you ever fear that some new grading service or philosophy like "tightening" might...
ANACONDA
Posts: 4,692 ✭
severely adversely affect the value of your coins??
Remember what happened to the folks who bought raw coins, as everyone had to do before the grading services came along.......?
They bought gems many of which landed in 63 holders or worse.
For example, what if some new grading company came along that was even more conservative the PCGS and NGC.....wouldn't everyone want coins in those holders
OR
say a grading company came along that simply graded coins more consistently....wouldn't everyone want coins in those holders
OR
say PCGS and NGC got together (not likely) and agreed and did tighten grading standards.....wouldn't you lose out to coins in the new tighter standard holders?
Just curious. The reason I ask is it seems to me that ugly and just made it coins must always be owned by someone....people on this board???.......and it seems to me that bluesheet prices are too close to greysheet prices....that there should be a larger spread.....that PQ coins are worth far more than the ugliest coins.
Do you ever worry that some of your coins might not survive the next change in grading standards....?
Remember what happened to the folks who bought raw coins, as everyone had to do before the grading services came along.......?
They bought gems many of which landed in 63 holders or worse.
For example, what if some new grading company came along that was even more conservative the PCGS and NGC.....wouldn't everyone want coins in those holders
OR
say a grading company came along that simply graded coins more consistently....wouldn't everyone want coins in those holders
OR
say PCGS and NGC got together (not likely) and agreed and did tighten grading standards.....wouldn't you lose out to coins in the new tighter standard holders?
Just curious. The reason I ask is it seems to me that ugly and just made it coins must always be owned by someone....people on this board???.......and it seems to me that bluesheet prices are too close to greysheet prices....that there should be a larger spread.....that PQ coins are worth far more than the ugliest coins.
Do you ever worry that some of your coins might not survive the next change in grading standards....?
0
Comments
I pretty much stick to true Key date coins with some occasional "type" stuff here and there. I have Key date coins in various grades all over the spectrum and they are all problem free.
I do not buy moderns (other than the Matte Proof Jeffs/Kennedy that I own an example of each)and do not buy "top pop" coins. I do not buy coins that I would not be able to "crack out" and sell for what I've got in them or Darn close.
Change down the right is almost a certainty. If the market goes up or down too far, expect a reaction from the FED (oops, I mean PCGS) to adjust grading accordingly. In a strong down market, BUYERS of coins will get fussier, and reject the lower 2/3 of the
current slabs. Heck, they may even reject all of the grade and expect one extra grade (or 2!) for their money. Hey, that's deflation! The fact that the SHEET says something different won't mean anything. Supply and Demand will set the price and what quality brings that price, not the grading services. This is what happened from 1981-1982 and there were no slab services then.
roadrunner
Adrian
Do what my PM said!
It would suck for pcgs and ngd if a new company came into the forefront and people used them more than the current grading co's.....
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
Goose - There are some Modern condition rarities that make lots of sense, but I see the problem Adrian asked about magnified in that market. Many of the purchasers of those coins trust the holder some much they never look below the label. This week I found a few 69 Jeffs I thought were very nice, so I did a few comps to see what the premium coins should look like. The coin in the link below is a PCGS coin. I'm not singling them out, as there are mistakes in EVERYONE's holder. Some quick background. C/U price guide puts this coin at $800. They routinely sell for less than ½ that. The coin is likely a dipper, with haze in the fields noted in the auction description. There is chatter visible on the jaw. The buyer paid enough money for a premium coin. Link Let's suppose they hold it well into a down market. What do you guess their compensation would be if they resubmitted it for review? Does it happen in the classic market? In a down market, the remaining buyers aren't the crowd that doesn't look below the label. JMO
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
The services have the ability to grade consistently tight all the time.
They just either don't utilize it, don't care, or purposely invoke variability to get coins to come back for more fees or to enrich those (i.e. dealers) who can see the variability.
If one consistently grades somewhat tighter than services on average, you have no problem no or in the future.
roadrunner
Simple isn't it.
Takes a discipline that most don't adhere to.
Adrian, that is a good post - you know those that are fussy or very grade conscious will survive that - like that bust dime we quarralled over last week I personally would never pay AU-58 money for it regardless of pedigree, plastic or whatever - I'd hate to think what would happen to that dime if your scenario materialized.
ANother reason to buy the coin always first. Study pricing, scarcity, pops, preservation and do stick to a limited circle of chosen dealers to maintain some consistancy.
Your joining the ranks of contributing dealers here hmm do we have it made here on these boards or what
Marc
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
I don't believe that the strength of the market has anything to do with the services' grading standards.
On the other hand, the market has a subconscious influence on dealers' grading standards.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>For example, what if some new grading company came along that was even more conservative the PCGS and NGC.....wouldn't everyone want coins in those holders >>
No, But I would want to buy coins already in this holders, crack them out and resubmit to PCGS and NGC.
Andy, you know far more than I do about the services (and the market in general). Do you believe the graders are unaware of and uninfluenced by the community standard of holder acceptability? Maybe they are, it's an honest question. If the community were to decide most holdered coins were overgraded, would the TPG's react? Would graders who were recently hired from the dealer community grade to the looser TPG standard, or would they grade like the mainstream? I guess I'm asking who really owns the standard.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
or large cent varieties, or Morgan dollars this is what collectors do. They've been
collecting all these coins since long before the grading services arose and they will
likely be collecting them long after the services are gone. Just as a slab doesn't
create a rare large cent neither does a slab create a very high grade coin. The ser-
vices can tighten, loosen, or even totally redefine the entire grading spectra and it
will have no more effect on the Morgan dollar than the rare variety. Some people
apparently don't seem to understand the concept, but ask yourself this- - If the
services tightened up a great deal will your 16-D dime become a 17-S?
Perception plays a much larger role in pricing than it should. There are many key date
coins which sell for multiples of what an equally scarce "common" date coin sells.
There are gold coins with similar supply/demand to silver coins which sell for substant-
ially more. This can be true even where the premium is so great as to render melt
value inconsequential. There are numerous rare modern coins which bring much
smaller premiums than older coins of similar scarcity.
So, yes, there would be some change in the market price of a collection if the grading
services suddenly changed the way they graded coins but this change in prices would
not be as dramatic as the change in standards. No service with competition will make
any such change in their business anyway unless customers demand it. It appears
that most collectors prefer the status quo and are unlikely to clamor for any major
changes in the near future.
value reasonably well, especially if they have a real degree of true rarity value.
Freedom from surface marks, deep luster, good strike, pleasing or spectacular color
will be desireable and valuable in any kind of market.
Camelot
Camelot
Well said. I agree totally !!
2 Obervations:
1) Most collectors purchase based on emotion or long-term investment potential, whaeas I believe that most dealers purchase based on inventory or want list business needs & short-term investment potential to turn a quick profit.
2) Collectors have the advantage of not having to continually turn their inventory to be successful -- as do dealers to make money on transactions.
We collectors therefore can afford to be more patient and selective to wait for the right coin, at the right price. And for most of us, at least half of the fun is in the hunt for that "right coin", which makes it more gratifying when we find our latest "trophy", and helps us to appreciate it more.
I'm not concerned about grading standards tightening or loosening because I do not play the "Grading Game". None of us (individually) have control over the market valuation of coins -- it's based upon supply & demand. But we do control this supply & demand equation on a collective basis.
What we do have control over individually is the type of coin and the quality of coin that we purchase, and at what price we pull the trigger. I prefer to focus on what I can control, rather than postulate over what I do not have control over.
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
As long as the new 'standard' is accepted industry-wide, then it won't make a difference on the relative value of the piece. A coin is, what it is, whether you call it MS 65 or MS63.....those are just labels.
Think back (not too far back either) when there were MS60, 63, and 65 designations....and that was it. Well, I can assure you that the best of the best, even though they still were called MS65, brought multiples of sheet price for that designation because they were recognized as being far better than anything else.
I guess it's why I've got no problem cracking out MS66 and 67 toned Morgans and putting them in Captial Plastics holders for display. They are what they are.
GSAGUY
For a new service to come along and gain the level of market recognition it would need to make a presence that matter it is most likely only to occur if one of the top two services tank or make a colassal mistake that serverly shakes everyones confidence in then to the extent they can't recover. We are actually very fortunate to have two top grading services rather than one because it keeps each on their toes (competition can be good for competitors), including providing more incentives for further innovation.