Mintage rarity vs. actual rarity

clackamas

To this day I am still puzzled by what seems like a a simple matter. It should not matter how many were struck, it should matter how many survive. I just purchased a 1926-D Lincoln in PCGS MS64RD for a little over $500. An expensive coin for the grade. However there are only 105 graded in this grade with 34 in 65 and 1 in 66RD (105/34/1). A coin with a similar surviving population is the 1914-D (116/51/3). These coins probably don't have too many in raw condition still out there so in the end the final POP totals will be very similar to what is exhibited today. So why is a coin that in all probability rarer still much cheaper. $500 vs. $4,000? I suppose I don't need to know I just should take it at fact and live with it.

Coppernicus

clack - I would think that a very large percentage of the 14-D that have MS64-66 potential have been slabbed, whereas the percentage of the 26-D is probably smaller. So even though the pops are similar, there may be many more 26-Ds lurking out there than there are 14-Ds. Mintage of 28 mil. on the 26-D, 1.1 mil. on the 14-D. The price difference is a reflection of the relative mintages, rather than the number of graded pieces. As we both know, this is not always the case but I think it is here.

Mike

cladking

This has always puzzled me too.

Why do collectors think nothing of putting down an extra $5,000 on a $5,000 coin because
it has some incredible attribute but won't pay an extra $100 on a $10 dollar coin with the same
attribute even when it's rarer? There are many such anomalies in collectibles and this is one of
the reasons that they make poor investments.

In the case of the 26-D it is likely that it's a simple matter of perception. Many collectors only de-
sire the key dates and the 26-D isn't considered key because it had a high mintage.

clackamas

Mike,

I see what you are saying but I honestly don't think there are very many 26-D's left raw. This was before the roll craze started, hence the rarity of the 26-S in MSRD. I think 20 years from now the POPs will be very similar.

BTW - You are Mensa0! I have run into you on Ebay.

Brian

Coppernicus

Brian - Good points. So, if there are very few raw 26-Ds in 64-66 that have survived, then it has to be the "key" versus what is to be perceived as a non-key, or semi-key. If what you say is true, then the 26-D should be in a similar class as the 14-D - maybe the 14-D prices will come down to the 26-D rather than the other way around!! We can only hope!

Mike

kranky

The 1914-D is a long-established key coin and pricey in all grades. The 1926-D is a common coin and becomes expensive only in the highest grades. Factor in supply-and-demand and the situation seems normal to me. I quibble with the term "actual rarity" - to me, it's "grade rarity".

Any collector who wants a 26-D can get one for a couple of bucks if it doesn't have to be Unc. Only those who want a very high grade specimen will need to pay over $100. If there aren't that many collectors who want a Gem, the price will never approach that of the 14-D.

I wonder if the situation with the 26-D is related to the fact that it's not even a tough coin in Unc, only in Gem. If the coin was rare in ANY Unc grade, I think it would make a big difference. Look at the 1884-S Morgan - a relatively common coin even in high circulated grades. But once you hit the Unc threshold, prices really jump with each grade point.

RYK

Clack,

Though I do not know/collect Lincolns I see appreciate your point and am often puzzeld/fascinated by what appear to be similar price dislocations in rare date gold. I think there are at least three factors that go into determining rarity and ultimately the price one will pay per degree of rarity:
1. Overall rarity in all grades. As pointed out by kranky, the 14-D is relatively scarce in all grades and a key date, and this is reflected in its pricing in all grades.
2. Conditional rarity. Obviously, issues that are conditionally rare are deserving of a higher price, but only if there is demand for such a rarity.
3. Knowledge of relative rarity. Population reports are notoriously unreliable, particularly in the upper grades where there are repeated efforts made mostly by sellers to get the coin into the highest possible grade holder in order to maximize the price they can get for the coin. In the series that I collect, there are books in which the author estimates the overall number of survivors in the various grades, provides condition census information, etc. This, while not 100% accurate, is better than population guides for the grading services, and certainly influences pricing in these series. I am not sure what information is available about the actual surviving population of 26-D Lincolns.
4. Key date cache. There are people who collect only key dates and will buy the 14-D because it is one. Period. The same cannot be said about the 26-D. This raises the demand and price for the issue.

In the gold series in which I collect (say, Dahlonega $5's), I see that coins that are more rare in overall population but of similar rarity in high grade to another date, routinely selling for a much higher price than the overall more common coin. I also see interesting price dislocations in which coins that are more scarce in all grades than another issue selling for less.

Interesting topic!

Fairlaneman

For a collector that confines himself to basically one series I believe this question comes up quite often. When looking at the Pop reports, which are all messed up anyway, it is quite hard to justify the price some of the Key Coins command compared to the Not So key Coins that have a Pop of about the same or lower. The chance of many new examples coming into the system that were minted before 1930 is fairly slim in my opinion. Sure a few will show up but certainly I do not think roll quantity additions will be added.

Of course the Key Dates are in demand from not only series collectors but also in demand from Type Collectors and Key Date Collectors so I guess the price differences boils down to the old supply and demand ratio. Somewhere down the road these lower Pop not so key coins will see their day when the supply of key date coins has dried up completely.

In the mean time please be quite about these lower Pop not so key coins. Some of us do seek these and want the prices to stay at the very low levels that they are at right now.

Ken

elwood

As someone else mentioned the 26-D in Gem would be considered a condition rarity and not an absolute
rarity. While not rare, the 14-D is a much tougher coin in all grades and a very popular key-date. And that is when demand drives up the price, like 09-S VDB's.

You also have to remember that some dates saw heavy circulation and were not saved. This is especially true with S minted coins. These coins almost all went into circulation and were not saved.

Then there is the melt factor. A coin may have a high mintage but many of the coins were melted leaving very few for collectors. This is were research and knowing a series pays off.