DATELINE 2039: An article about the booming late 80's card market
jrinck
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Looking a bit ahead in time, here's an article from MODERN ANTIQUE magazine, dated February 17, 2039:
ONCE WORTHLESS CARDS NOW PRICELESS TREASURES
Back at the turn of the century, the baseball card market was a battleground. The Vintage folks, who collected cards from the 1970's and before, squared off against the Modern folks, who collected cards from the 1980's on up. The battles were sometimes heated, but very little blood was spilled, and both markets experienced modest growth through the beginning portion of the century, with the Vintage folks seeing slightly more gains throughout the time period.
The main argument that the Vintage folks used against the Modern folks was in the area of overproduction, which, according to production numbers obtained from the 80's and 90's, clearly showed that the market was saturated with new cards--cards that were either never removed from their original packaging or carefully cared for. As such, there was never a problem in finding mint examples of any card you were looking for. This was a far cry from vintage cards, who were played with an mangled by children of the 50's and 60's, leaving a very high percentage of them in poor condition. The Modern folks could never dispute this charge by the Vintage folks. There were, say, thousands of 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. cards in GEM MINT 10 condition versus only two for 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle.
A basic rule for any object's value is that old pillar of capitalism: SUPPLY AND DEMAND. And oh how times have changed!
In the early part of the century, as the Modern folks slowly realized that their hoards of 1980's and 1990's "common" cards were most likely never going to produce a positive return-on-investment, many of them simply abandoned the cards. Some were sent to charities where fun loving children mangled them just like their grandfathers had done to their own cards fifty years earlier. Still, many were simply thrown away, or left unprotected in warehouses, garages, closets, and attics, where the ravages of time destroyed them. The billions and billions of Modern cards slowly became the millions and millions, and now, in many cases, in the thousands and thousands. A study that began in 2025, and just completed this year, estimates that there are less that one thousand 1989 Ken Griffey Upper Deck cards in existence, down from over 10,000 in 2008. Submissions of the Griffey cards to professional grading companies have been on a downward slide since 2009. In fact, only ONE Griffey card was submitted for professional grading in 2038, and it received a lackluster grade of "5"!
Sportscard conventions, once a dying breed, are now thriving again, and the demand for post-1980 cards are completely equal to pre-1980 cards. Some dealers even report MORE interest in 1980's and 1990's material-- a demand that they cannot keep up with. Rick Fox, owner of "MODERN MASTERPIECES", sums it up this way: "Back in the year 2000, who would have ever thought that the billions of modern cards would ever become valuable? Too many people cared for them, so they never shot up in value. But because they never rose in value, many people eventually abandoned them. If you were smart enough to hold on to your 80's and 90's stuff, you are likely to be a pretty rich person right about now. But hey, hindsight is, as they say, 20-20. I'm guilty as charged regarding throwing the modern stuff away. In 2010 I remember having a card burning party. I must have burned at least 100,000 1990 Donruss cards, and that was just in one day! Ask an old-timer about card burning parties and you're likely to be met with a scowl."
Well, those who refrained from burning their cards are far from scowling these days, so it just goes to show you once again that the things you think will never be valuable down the road are precisely the things that will be.
ONCE WORTHLESS CARDS NOW PRICELESS TREASURES
Back at the turn of the century, the baseball card market was a battleground. The Vintage folks, who collected cards from the 1970's and before, squared off against the Modern folks, who collected cards from the 1980's on up. The battles were sometimes heated, but very little blood was spilled, and both markets experienced modest growth through the beginning portion of the century, with the Vintage folks seeing slightly more gains throughout the time period.
The main argument that the Vintage folks used against the Modern folks was in the area of overproduction, which, according to production numbers obtained from the 80's and 90's, clearly showed that the market was saturated with new cards--cards that were either never removed from their original packaging or carefully cared for. As such, there was never a problem in finding mint examples of any card you were looking for. This was a far cry from vintage cards, who were played with an mangled by children of the 50's and 60's, leaving a very high percentage of them in poor condition. The Modern folks could never dispute this charge by the Vintage folks. There were, say, thousands of 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. cards in GEM MINT 10 condition versus only two for 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle.
A basic rule for any object's value is that old pillar of capitalism: SUPPLY AND DEMAND. And oh how times have changed!
In the early part of the century, as the Modern folks slowly realized that their hoards of 1980's and 1990's "common" cards were most likely never going to produce a positive return-on-investment, many of them simply abandoned the cards. Some were sent to charities where fun loving children mangled them just like their grandfathers had done to their own cards fifty years earlier. Still, many were simply thrown away, or left unprotected in warehouses, garages, closets, and attics, where the ravages of time destroyed them. The billions and billions of Modern cards slowly became the millions and millions, and now, in many cases, in the thousands and thousands. A study that began in 2025, and just completed this year, estimates that there are less that one thousand 1989 Ken Griffey Upper Deck cards in existence, down from over 10,000 in 2008. Submissions of the Griffey cards to professional grading companies have been on a downward slide since 2009. In fact, only ONE Griffey card was submitted for professional grading in 2038, and it received a lackluster grade of "5"!
Sportscard conventions, once a dying breed, are now thriving again, and the demand for post-1980 cards are completely equal to pre-1980 cards. Some dealers even report MORE interest in 1980's and 1990's material-- a demand that they cannot keep up with. Rick Fox, owner of "MODERN MASTERPIECES", sums it up this way: "Back in the year 2000, who would have ever thought that the billions of modern cards would ever become valuable? Too many people cared for them, so they never shot up in value. But because they never rose in value, many people eventually abandoned them. If you were smart enough to hold on to your 80's and 90's stuff, you are likely to be a pretty rich person right about now. But hey, hindsight is, as they say, 20-20. I'm guilty as charged regarding throwing the modern stuff away. In 2010 I remember having a card burning party. I must have burned at least 100,000 1990 Donruss cards, and that was just in one day! Ask an old-timer about card burning parties and you're likely to be met with a scowl."
Well, those who refrained from burning their cards are far from scowling these days, so it just goes to show you once again that the things you think will never be valuable down the road are precisely the things that will be.
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Comments
I'm back from the past and going back to the future...
Interesting theory from a 2004 collector.
My future self will bump this up in 2039