Has this market peaked?
291fifth
Posts: 24,323 ✭✭✭✭✭
I just returned from a visit to one of the local store dealers. He had attended a local show on Sunday and his comments on what he saw happening seem to mirror my own observations. COLLECTORS were out in force and were prepared to buy. However, they were being VERY picky and, as a result, business at the show was actually very soft.
All glory is fleeting.
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If I had it my way, stupidity would be painful!
However, when I find the quality I am looking for , I buy.
Being picky when you buy is the best protection against big losses,
when ever the market should turn lower. At the L.B. Show I saw the
majority of dealers with mounds of the same old, dull, scrubbed, dipped out
type coins and commems. They were stacked in large piles and looked like they
had been in stock for a long time. What was selling ,was the fresh, origonal ,clean
coins and there seemed no price resistance for that type of PQ material.
Camelot
There are many different segments and they rarely, if ever move together at the same time or in the same direction.
Some segments are bringing record prices, while others have already dropped off from previous highs and still others haven't even really participated recently.
As for the rest of the market, I think it's premature to say that the market has peaked. I haven't seen any significant weakness.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>291fifth and others - before such questions can be answered, you first need to define and agree upon what constitutes "this market".
There are many different segments and they rarely, if ever move together at the same time or in the same direction.
Some segments are bringing record prices, while others have already dropped off from previous highs and still others haven't even really participated recently. >>
Mark-
Since you are a major player in the market I'd like to hear your comments on just what is currently HOT, NOT, and JUST PLAIN DEAD.
Tom
He just might have to kill you to keep the secret.
Camelot
Over $50,000,000.00 worth of coins just sold at HUGE premiums via all the auctions in January. Just about EVERY retail dealer I know (of my calibre) is STILL reporting record sales. THIS IS NOT HYPE, THIS IS FACT.
To those of you who think the market is peaking, SELL ME YOUR COINS!!!!!PLEASE!
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
No, according to HRH
Camelot
I generally agree. Caveat: The quality of the material being offered at this point is also significantly poorer I believe. In other words, the few great coins continue to get plucked off when offered (and for solid prices) and the "dogs" continue to multiply. Lately, I can look at a pattern offering in an auction and rule out 80%+ of the coins simply on horrible quality grounds alone. These coins drift from auction to auction diluting the quality of the next auction and on and on. The collector base has not grown in equal proportions to the "dogs" multiplying I believe - perhaps this has to do with the promises of a Registry not materializing as of yet. Indeed, the "new pattern book" didn't set the world on fire as some had predicted.
The bottom line is if you are building a particular pattern collection, these are once again becoming fairly good times as prices come down to earth. If you are "investing" in patterns, intending to flip them and have 4-5 turns of inventory per year - I suspect these may be difficult times and one might think the market has indeed "peaked".
Wondercoin
P.S. Andy - I intentionally went into the show Saturday around noon to pay you, ran into Rick K. who said you had left already and then proceeded to take a pattern from Rick on approval. I tried
<< <i>Over $50,000,000.00 worth of coins just sold at HUGE premiums via all the auctions in January. Just about EVERY retail dealer I know (of my calibre) is STILL reporting record sales. >>
Laura, while I don't think the market has peaked as a whole, your comment above could have just as easily applied in some ways, to other times in history, just before the market crashed.
Remember how wild and crazy things were before previous crashes? Don't get me wrong - I'm not predicting a crash -I prefer not to make predictions, because I KNOW that I don't KNOW the future. But, part of your reasoning/evidence that the market is far from having peaked, is faulty/suspect in my opinion.
Tom - I will try to address your question later today.
As of now the bear is still buying. But being verrrry selective.
Camelot
<< <i>Too many people don't understand the power of the internet or how huge our marketplace has become. >>
This one sentence says it all. Not to say that the market has stopped being cyclical in nature, but many factors have changed more than most people realize.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
Some words of advice......
1) If you are trying to time the market and get out at the top.... don't, you'll never do it....
2) If you are uncomfortable at the levels now, sell your collection and be happy.....
3) If you are not comfortable with the amount of risk involved now, don't collect/trade....
Just enjoy the hobby..... prices are going to go up... and down... and up again.......
<< <i>Too many people don't understand the power of the internet or how huge our marketplace has become. >>
...Says the hot shot would be dotcom millionaire to a salivating VC circa 1999.
Russ, NCNE
<< <i>
<< <i>Too many people don't understand the power of the internet or how huge our marketplace has become. >>
This one sentence says it all. Not to say that the market has stopped being cyclical in nature, but many factors have changed more than most people realize.
RELLA >>
Not only are there more participants seeking coins but there are more participants at every level
of sophistication from eagerly buying rare coins for esoteric collections to still apprehensive to spend
much over face value. This is having an effect on all facets of the hobby. Even darkside coins have been
becoming quite firm in recent months and substantial increases appear to be at hand.
There still appears to be a couple years left in this bull and longer is not impossible. When tokens
and medals start participating there may be a little fall off or some rotation in coins.
<< <i>Tom.....
Some words of advice......
1) If you are trying to time the market and get out at the top.... don't, you'll never do it....
2) If you are uncomfortable at the levels now, sell your collection and be happy.....
3) If you are not comfortable with the amount of risk involved now, don't collect/trade....
Just enjoy the hobby..... prices are going to go up... and down... and up again....... >>
Peaceman,
While I am going to be selling a significant portion of my collection in the near future my concern here is to try and get an accurate feel for what is really happening out there in coin land. I have found that the numismatic press is largely useless as they usually just reprint the glowing press releases they receive.
When was the last time you ever hear of a numismatic auction that was reported to be a failure?
My own collection consists of nice collector coins, none of which are valued at over $2500, most much less, which will probably do well when the are sold, probably on eBay.
I just hunger for accurate, non-hyped market information.
Tom
<< <i>Since you are a major player in the market I'd like to hear your comments on just what is currently HOT, NOT, and JUST PLAIN DEAD. >>
Tom, before I answer your question, let me say, that I'm not revealing any secrets here - many people could just as easily tell you the same things I'm about to, even if we don't agree in each and every case....
"HOT": much of the "registry set" material, though, even that is subject to the whims of collectors who decide to sell their sets and, to new super high grade coins being "made" and their populations increasing.
If/when you have a very small group of collectors chasing after a very small group of coins, if one or more of the collectors exits the chase and/or more coins are added to the available supply, prices can drop. For example, some of the MS68FB Mercury dimes and Proof 68 (1938-1942) Jefferson nickel prices have dropped recently, due to population increases.
"HOT": beautifully toned and/or extra eye-appealing coins - no surprise there.
"HOT" : "short set" (1941-1947) Walkers graded MS65 and higher.
"HOT" : recently, classic commemorative gold coins have perked up noticeably.
"JUST PLAIN DEAD" - ugly, unappealing coins and/or those which can easily be located in LARGE quantities - no surprise there, either. This comprises a very large group!
"NOT" - MANY coins and coin types - in the areas in which we often deal rather heavily, I would again mention Mint State and Proof copper, nickel and silver type coins, classic silver commemoratives, pre-short-set date Walkers and Peace dollars, among others.
Yes, amazing coins within these groups bring BIG bucks but many perfectly nice, highly attractive and desirable coins can be had at levels similar to those of two or more years ago. Please don't tell anyone, though.
NEVER LET HIPPO MOUTH OVERLOAD HUMMINGBIRD BUTT!!!
WORK HARDER!!!!
Millions on WELFARE depend on you!
Glenn
Laura - If it's not hype, why are you screaming?
Seriously, I'm hugely bullish on rare coins in the long term, in large part for the reasons Laura cited. But I assure you that we are not on a straightline path to fame and fortune. Do not be surprised if reports of the death of the coin market's "business cycle" are somewhat exaggerated.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The internet has affected the coin market, but from what I see that's available on ebay, the types of coins generally offered there are NOT the coins that are selling for record levels. I think what has occurred is that the internet is making buying rare coins more available to those that can't travel 2500 miles to go to say a LB show, and where there are more collectors, there is more demand. But, like chain letters, there is not an infinite suppluy of new buyers, so there will likely be either a slow-down (good) or a meltdown (bad).
As the dot come craze - and the FL land craze and the Tulip craze before - have shown us, an infinitely increasing market is not possible.
JMHO
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
any signs of a market peak.
The half-dozen Morgans I need to finish my set ( key dates, naturally )
are going up faster than I can save up to buy 'em !
A peak in the market would give me a chance to breath !!!
"Laura, while I don't think the market has peaked as a whole, your comment above could have just as easily applied in some ways, to other times in history, just before the market crashed."
In response to Marks comments, sorry, I disagree! Simple reasons why, the BULK of the buying you'll find is from REAL collectors. In tha past (1980+1989) the market was driven primarily by DEALER speculation. This time, we don't have phoney banks in CA pumping out loans to shady dealers who drove Morgans up $500.00 in MS65 (something they never should have been). Also, we now have such monster marketing techniques as the Registry concept. That has made more people WANT to collect. While you draw the comparison that the markets peak when massive activty takes place, its not so this time.
People are STILL collecting. Want Lists are STILL expanding. Coins are NOT trading dealer to dealer. They are really going OFF the market.
One example I can give is what happening to PR gold (that we are aware of). High end stuff is going off the market to a group of well heeled collectors. They have been buying for about 6-8 years now (probably about $15-25 million a year). They have NEVER sold anything. They are building sets. They feel so good about the market that they're spending is INCREASING. They have no immediate plans on selling, they are comitted to put the stuff away for as long as possible (they say forever, but I'm hedging). Think about it, save for an old time collection, how many GEM Proof $20 Libs have you seen in the past few years? Not many.
My point is that the INTERNET brought all these new people to the hobby. I do NOT get phones calls (like I did in 1989) discussing the "investment" aspect of coins. People talk to me about building sets. Also, the profile of the affluent collector has totally changed. Now I deal with BILLIONARES who think coins are neat and just want to build the sets-pricing is not really an object nor is a down turn inthe econmy. In the 30 years I've been inthis hobby, I have NEVER seen more people with that much money floating around at the same time. A gazllionre used to be a rarity-only one or two biggies floating around. Heck, just look at the 1933 $20-rumor has it that the coin was purchased by a mutilmillionare newcomer to the hobby. What the public is unaware of, was the 4-5 others like him who were the underbidders.
So I repeat to those of you who think the market is peakingL PLEASE SELL ME YOUR COINS!
Now, talk to me in another 3-5 years. Then I'm sure my feelings might be changed.
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
<< <i>Coins are NOT trading dealer to dealer >>
Sorry, Laura, that is (at least part) BOLOGNA. There is a great deal of dealer to dealer trading taking place and most people are well aware of it.
Maybe its just my little fantasy world.
I will certianly argue that the MAJORITY of ALL auction coins are going either to dealers and THEN off the market, or just directly off the market. I sit and attend the sales, so I see whos buying for the most part (and don't think we can't figure out a dealers book bid).
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
With regard to the original question, i hope the market crashes and then stabilizes. A stable even market. That's what I want.
adrian
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
Good luck to all, and have fun with your sample slabs, er, I mean coins!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Neil
al h.
<< <i>From MY pearch, I see all the GREAT coins selling to "retail" dealers and going right off the market. >>
Laura, perhaps if you define "all the great coins" as a relatively small percentage of those out there and/or change your quote to "many great coins", we can come to an agreement of some sort?
PS - not sure if you meant "from my peach" or "from my perch", rather than "from my pearch" but either way, I disagree.
Poor statement.
Everything cycles. New collectors will always enter, just as old ones will stop. If I were to believe by the above statement, then the coin market won't exist in 10-20 years.
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
Mark, didn't you guys sell the Trompeter (sp) $20 lib proof late last year?
Those who say this market is only about dealers or investors are ABSOLUTELY wrong [
Certainly dealer's stocks tend to inflate in the good times and deflate in the bad - that's only natural. But to say the great coins are just trading back and forth between dealers and not coming to roost in collector's hands is pretty farfetched....
hey Laura
consider the scenario you've laid out. a group of wealthy investors---though you did call them a "group of well-heeled collectors---has been amassing Proof Gold at the rate of 15-25 million dollars a year for the past 6-8 years. now they are increasing that rate of purchase with the intention of keeping that material off the market for an indefinite period. who exactly will be able to purchase that from them after they have---if they don't already have---a controlling interest which allows them to set the price??
your examples sometimes highlight the different caliber of customer that you cater to. nothing wrong with that, there are plenty of collectors that need/want high end/high priced material. but you always try to equate what happens in that special segment of the hobby with what goes on with the overall majority of collectors. i beleive TDN and dorkkarl had this discussion a few days ago.
al h.
I do feel it is important though for EVERYONE to know when the "big boys" are playing hard. Why? becuase when they have confidence in the market, they are spending the big $$-and that should be a good sign across the board. And believe me, they don't spend if they think things are going south (the vulture buyers usually come in AFTER a crash). What they do DOES effect all levels (mostly by freeing up dealers cash flows at the very least).
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
often comes light. A most enjoyable thread, both the pro and the con.
Camelot
I am willing to put my money where my yapper is. I sell to RETAIL-NOT dealers. I am willing to "risk" as much money as I can get my hands to buy and INVENTORY coins.
I will do this because I know what I can sell and to whom. If I felt the market was peaking (which I actually thought was happening to Bust Dollars at the end of 2001-which I was wrong about), I would NOT be so stupid. When my orders do dry up, then I would retreat. Until then, I need HIGH GRADE Ultra cameo Proof gold, the wildest colorered Commems, ALL better DMPL Morgans (NO ONE WILL PAY MORE THAN FOR PCGS COINS-ESPECIALLY CC's), the finest MS+PR Type coins, I still need about 5 Flat Rim GEM MS 65 High Reliefs (this order is from ONE collector who wants his kids to each have one-noble huh?), etc. And this isn't near everything I have immediately sold!
JUST SAY NO TO WANNABES! They lurk and prey on unwitting collectors in chatrooms!
Laura - That doesn't make you a bull. It makes you a business person.
Edited to add that Art Kagin has often said to me that the most dangerous thing a coin dealer can do is to start believing his own BS. Not that that applies to anyone on this forum, of course.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
a green and healthy lawn in the spring.
Excessive and dour ruminations, can sometimes
become a self forfilling future ,rather then a prudent
warning of historical as well as hysterical note.
Camelot