Does anyone have actual numerical guesses to vintage rookie production?

KallMaloneSay

Not trying to start a modern vs. vintage debate here, just wondering if anyone has some insider typed knowledge on what production figures were like for vintage. I'll make my own little estimates with limited knowledge, please tell me your guesses.

1968 Topps Nolan Ryan/Koosman: PSA shows 3452 graded, granted some are regrades (maybe 50-200), but the majority have to be out there raw and probably not worth grading. I would estimate there are about 10,000 still in existance that made it through you old guys tearing them up and throwing them away.

1952 Topps Mickey Mantle: First of all, this is his best card, so we don't need JoeStalin's debate back up here that was under last week's thread. PSA shows 590 graded and I would imagine this is a more heavily regraded card and most have been graded by one of the companies. Maybe 1200 total in existance?

1963 Topps Pete Rose: PSA graded 1477 of them, seems like one that would be slabbed in high percentages. Maybe 4,000 out there?

1975 Topps George Brett: PSA has graded 2791 of the regular version (mini not included) and I would say a small percentage of these have been graded. Are there about 15,000 of these still out there?

1980 Topps Rickey Henderson: PSA graded 5904 of them (hmmm, no PSA 10's out of the first 3000 submitted and now 5 out of the last 3000). I run across a ton of raw ones, there have to be around 40,000 of these out there.

Let me know how far off my estimates are, like I said, I'm no expert on these cards. As a modern collector I can't really compare the numbers to the Pujols Bowman Chrome AUTO numbered to 500 since there are probably 50,000 other Pujols true RC's in existance. But with the 2002 Donruss Elite Extra Edition there are only 1000 true RC's of Alexis Rios, Adam LaRoche, Jose Castillo, and Garrett Atkins, all of whom look pretty good in the minors. I would imagine one or two of these guys becomes a borderline star and it would be interesting to see the potential of these cards. Second year cards of these guys really aren't a substitute for a true RC.

goodriddance189

Topps made enough cards each year to block out the sun. how many of those cards still survive today, much less in decent condition, is really the question

mikeschmidt

<< <i>Not trying to start a modern vs. vintage debate here, just wondering if anyone has some insider typed knowledge on what production figures were like for vintage. I'll make my own little estimates with limited knowledge, please tell me your guesses.
>>



I think that most of your guesses are extremely conservative. There are still MANY people out there who do not buy into the grading game (old-time collectors), and there are thousands of collector-grade examples that do not necessarily make sense to even get graded.

MS

NickM

I would double your numbers on the Mantle, and guess that the numbers on all the other cards should be increased severalfold (3 to 4 times at least on most).

Nick

joestalin

Im sure that someone inside the topps company has access to this kind of info but for whatever
reason they would never tell us something like that. One only has to imagine the presses rolling
for weeks, churning out sheets and sheets, and that doesn't include the cards that were included
twice or more on each sheet.

I have often wondered why this aspect of the hobby has really never been exposed. There have been
many book written about vintage cards and even about topps vintage cards but never, from what
I have seen, a book on HOW cards were made. Even today we know very little about the company
that prints cards (remember topps doesn't do this anymore!)

I often wondered why topps was never able to print centered cards...it doesn't seem like that much
of a big deal to print all the cards they same way and have the blades set the same way.

Im sure once discovered, this would be a very interesting topic for discussion. Should we send Arthur
Shorin an email?

JS

AlanAllen

I agree that your estimates are conservative. If there are about 4 dozen T206 Wagners known and PSA has graded only 20, I think it's safe to say no more than 1 in 5 '52 Mantles has been slabbed. Raw ones are still a pretty common sight at major shows. I'm sure the ratio goes down from there. I bet there are more than 100,000 Hendersons.

Joe

helionaut

I read somewhere, I think in a book called The Baseball Catalog, that in 1975 the production was about 375,000 of each card. I figure you can knock off about 10-15% every 5 years you go back thourgh the 60s (at least for the most common series each year that had them) and add a similar amount every 5 years forward, up to around the mid-80s, when production really exploded. For the 50s, it's probably reduced by at least 10% per year. Maybe even less, because the packs were much smaller.

Even though that seems like a lot of cards, especially in light of today's sets where every single card might be numbered to 4 digits or much less, I'm sure that at least half simply don't exist today except in landfills. But from the 70s on up, when the general public knew that these cards would be "worth something someday" I think the number saved is more generous. I'd say that there are probably at least 50,000 Brett RCs out there. 40,000 would probably grade PSA 3 or less, but there's quite a few worthy ones out there I'm sure. Much more for Henderson. I wouldn't be surprised if by the time he gets to the HOF (has he retired yet?), there are 10,000 PSA 8-10s of his 1980.

By comparison, people have speculated that 1993 Upper Deck SP had 6000-7000 cases made. IIRC, there were 12 boxes per case, 24 packs of 12 cards. That's about 12 Jeters per case, give or take, so there might be upwards of 80,000 Jeter RCs.

NickM

helionaut - Upper Deck had production issues that '50s through '70s Topps did not. Upper Deck's back door was legendary as a distribution method. Remember what happened with the "500 cases" of French hockey high series from '90-'91?

Nick

TheCARDKid

I've always wondered about basketball card production numbers. I remember reading somewhere that Fleer made about 50,000 of each card in 1986. Whether that's accurate or not, I don't know.

The rule of thumb use to be 1/10 of baseball production for football, basketball or hockey cards. Thus for the 1970's, that would come out to about 25,000 to maybe 50,000 per card. 1957 Topps basketball was scarce even in 1957, so you could estimate perhaps no more than 10,000 of each card.

67standup

I'm not here to debate the merits of vintage vs. modern either, but rather rarity versus commonality. It's too bad that O-pee-chees, Topps Test Issues, Venezuelans, etc. take a deep back seat to cards in which 1000(0)'s were produced. The 1980 Henderson, modern PSA 9/10s, refractors, mass produced Mantles, etc. will far generate more interest than more obscure cards. The 1975 Topps Brett PSA 10 just sold for $7600+, but you can purchase an entire NM-MT 1975 Topps set for the fraction of the price. Think there's not at least one PSA 10 star in such a set? Yes, the market drives this game, but the graded card phenomena has gotten way out of hand. Do I sound bitter? I have a few vintage PSA 9s that will fetch $1000+, so I may not like the reality, but am a part of it.

TheCARDKid

67Standup,

Many obscure cards have only gotten more popular in recent years. Whether it's the '68 Topps Test basketball find from SportsCardsPlus or '61 Topps Dice Game, '68 Topps 3-D, etc.

Some seem incredibly undervalued though. Many turn of the century sets featuring Wagner, Cobb, Young, etc seem to completely fall under the radar. They may be very similar to T 206's, but the cache isn't there.