I don't understand darkside prices

hoardmonster · January 30, 2004 7:58PM

How can a coin with a mintage of 6,000 catalog for $0.75 while a coin with a mintage of 10 million catalog for $125?

sumnom · January 30, 2004 8:04PM

Demand.

hoardmonster · January 30, 2004 8:10PM

<< Demand. >>

Impressive! A one word answer that actually does answer it. I guess I need to rethink my question. Something like why on earth is demand higher for the common one over the rare one.

newsman · January 30, 2004 8:12PM

<< How can a coin with a mintage of 6,000 catalog for $0.75 while a coin with a mintage of 10 million catalog for $125? >>

Which coin are we talking about?

JoesMaName · January 30, 2004 8:12PM

Yep - Demand.
The one word answer that poped into my head too.
For whatever reason no one wants the 6000 coins made.
Maybe they're ugly?

hoardmonster · January 30, 2004 8:17PM

<< 

<< How can a coin with a mintage of 6,000 catalog for $0.75 while a coin with a mintage of 10 million catalog for $125? >>

Which coin are we talking about? >>

I don't know now. I remember looking through my Krause and noticing it. Those aren't even the exact figures, but pretty close to it I'm quite sure.

hoardmonster · January 30, 2004 8:28PM

Here's one exmple that's pretty close:

Mozambique, 1975 5 cent, 14.9 million minted, $110.00

Belize, 1980 10 cent, 761 pcs. minted, $1.50

newsman · January 30, 2004 8:29PM

That's why I like the darkside -- it's a collector's market. There are a lot of low-mintage darkside bargains out there, especially on coins that are (at least theoretically) intended for circulation, though I doubt most of them are good investments. For example, I recently bought a gold coin with a mintage of 14,000 for about 5 percent above melt -- it'll increase in value along with the price of gold, but I don't expect to see a sudden jump in collector demand.

newsman · January 30, 2004 8:32PM

<< Here's one exmple that's pretty close:

Mozambique, 1975 5 cent, 14.9 million minted, $110.00

Belize, 1980 10 cent, 761 pcs. minted, $1.50 >>

Mintage isn't the only indicator of rarity. Coins -- especially aluminum ones -- don't survive very long in nice condition in tropical countries like Mozambique, and that's not even taking into account war and currency devaluation.

The Belize issue, if I'm not mistaken, was made for a set by the Franklin mint, which means most of them probably already are in the hands of collectors.

hoardmonster · January 30, 2004 8:34PM

<< 
Mintage isn't the only indicator of rarity. Coins -- especially aluminum ones -- don't survive very long in nice condition in tropical countries like Mozambique, and that's not even taking into account war and currency devaluation.

The Belize issue, if I'm not mistaken, was made for a set by the Franklin mint, which means most of them probably already are in the hands of collectors. >>

Yeah, makes sense.

cladking · January 31, 2004 2:01AM

There are other complicating factors with world moderns. Many coins from the latter
half of the 20th century were ignored or held in disdain. They were often not collect-
ed and allowed to circulate extensively. In many cases they were recalled after many
years and then melted. These recalls generally will miss a lot of coins but most of these
will be lost or damaged and most of the rest will be in low grade. The reason that
prices aren't higher is that there are still few collectors for late date coins. Very low
mintage coins often have very high survival rates and very little true demand so prices
can be surprisingly low. Some countries have very little domestic demand so it's mostly
US collectors who comprise the demand for these. If the coin is uninteresting, modern,
NCLT, or overly difficult to locate then it might not get much attention from US collectors.

Another major consideration is Krause pricing practices. One should take all their prices
with a grain of salt and this goes double for coins with tiny mintages or survivorship with
prices under $2. Many of these prices have never really been updated, especially those
for third world countries.

tbirde56 · January 31, 2004 2:14AM

Another reason is that those Mozambique coins, I believe, were withdrawn (inflation?) and may be sitting in bank vaults or melted down. You can find a trickle of the 1975 1c on Ebay at about 1/10 catalog value. People see the trickle and expect the dam to bust and that prices will fall to a rediculously low level. Maybe they will, maybe they won't, equals to less demand while Krause doesn't take that into account.

hoardmonster · January 31, 2004 2:38AM

Good posts cladking and tbirde56.

tbirde56, I've snagged some those real cheap on eBay myself. Never understood why they went like that until your post.

Askari · January 31, 2004 2:47AM

Demand and survival, especially in higher grades. Low demand for scarce items can keep prices down as well as high demand. Silver coins, especially were prone to be melted down and base-metal coins do poorly in most climates.

Bruce · January 31, 2004 3:23AM

I was also thinking as well as demand, the survival rate, but it has been covered so I will not add to it.

XpipedreamR · January 31, 2004 3:26AM

<< How can a coin with a mintage of 6,000 catalog for $0.75 while a coin with a mintage of 10 million catalog for $125? >>

Shhhhh...Don't tell anybody!

SYRACUSIAN · January 31, 2004 5:24AM

<< I don't understand darkside prices >>

Me neither: Ponterio results

lot 1293 Greece 1L 1842 NGC MS64BN KM 13 ($400 in unc) my bid $ 1060 , realized $2600

lot 1302 Greece 2L 1834 NGC MS64BN KM 14 ($500 in unc) my bid $ 860, realized $1700

lot 1373 Ionian islands 30L 1834 NGC MS63 KM34 ($65 in unc) my bid $ 310, realized $575

<-------- not happy about it

hoardmonster · January 31, 2004 5:50AM

Please excuse my ignorance SYRACUSIAN, but what is Ponterio?

SYRACUSIAN · January 31, 2004 6:17AM

It's an auction house. These are some of the results of their latest auction. You'll all be very surprised ,if you compare Krause to realized prices. Still, I thought I had a better than average knowledge of this particular world section and I was very surprised to see my bids so low, compared to realized prices. After all, we're talking about BN examples here, not RB or RD although they both had some slight red traces. Tough dates, very tough market.

hoardmonster · January 31, 2004 6:22AM

Sorry to hear you didn't do well. Those are some pretty damn strong prices there.

cladking · January 31, 2004 7:03AM

There are many base metal world coins from the last half of the 20th century which are
distressingly common too. When exchange rates were favorable some of these would
be purchased by the million and shipped to the US to be added to poundage or sold as
singles, rolls, and hordes. Most of these still exist in huge numbers even where the do-
mestic coins ended up being melted. It seems as though these come in only two ways;
extremely common or quite scarce.

While my interests include many other world coins I rarely mention the older coins which
are also scarce or scarce only in high grade. There are many base metal issues dating back
into the 19th century that were also ignored. There are several Greek coins that are rarely
seen in nice condition.

Silver coin generally are less prone to official meltings because they are less likely to be
recalled and people are much less likely to turn in coins made of good silver. There are
numerous exceptions like the Spanish 100P melt a few years back where they got over
90% of mintage. Considering the amount of circulation these got and their expected at-
trition this is remarkable.

There are many world silver coins being destroyed for the silver content but generally
this occurs just a few at a time in many private meltings.

The base metal coins are being used to constitute the alloy for industrial operations. The
day could come that poundage represents much of the available supply of many modern
world coins.

I don't understand darkside prices

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