THE SUPERIOR AND GOLDBERG AUCTIONS - A BRIEF PERSPECTIVE

wondercoin

I posted this on the other board, but thought it might be of interest here as well:



I took off today after spending 3 days at Superior/Goldberg's pre-Long Beach auctions. Heritage starts tomorrow.

To sum up the auctions from my perspective, "shot" coins were selling for huge bucks (upwards of 75%-80% of the potential upgrade value!!) This involved Morgans, Peace Dollars, Liberty Nickels, SLQ's, Wash quarters, Commems and a host of other series I was following. For example, if you thought a 27(s) Peace Dollar had a decent shot to upgrade from MS64 to MS65, you needed to spend close to $5,000 to buy the PCGS-MS64 holdered coin (that is what a buddy of mine had to pay in the Superior sale to win the PCGS-MS64 coin). Over at the Goldberg sale, a PCGS-MS65 SLQ upgrade coin would sell for well over the NGC-MS67 coin (same date next lot in the sale). If you wanted to buy a beautiful Iowa Commem grading PCGS-MS67 you needed to spend close to $7,500 to do so (lock MS68 so this was more an example of super color coins commanding huge bucks as well). There was a nice run of colorful Wisconsins in the Superior sale in PCGS-MS67 and nearly all the coins cost between $2,000 - $3,000 to own one (upwards of 3x sheet). I tried to buy a nice Lafayette in PCGS-MS65 and got outbid at more than $10k. I watched coins selling where the final hammer price required the coin to upgrade TWO POINTS to make any money on the purchase (a 1 point upgrade probably resulted in a loss)!! This was very surprising - the upgraders were basically putting up nearly 80% of the money betting they were right in many cases. If you want to play the "upgrade game" at these stakes, you had better be right most of the time. The pressure to make these coins work is huge. Few can play at these levels.

As I mentioned, preminum quality coins sold for BIG MONEY at the pre-Long Beach auctions as well. Both Superior and Goldberg did a fine job with their auctions and went out of their way to treat the dealers right with nice lunches and dinners served throughouts the sessions.

Wondercoin

RegistryCoin

Interesting Mitch, especially concerning the nicer commems and the upgrade "percentages".... probably also a good reply to Fairlaneman's most recent thread ("Seriously...Man...").

braddick

Nice report and perpsective Mitch. I would think though, even if a coin didn't work on the second, third, or forth attempt at the upgrade, it could always be recycled back into the auction curcuit, down the road, and resold as a premium peice, allowing the owner to recoup most of his funds back. That is, if the market remains moving forward (as I suspect it will).

No, upside is still tremendous and the downside is still somewhat protected.

RegistryCoin

downside is always zero and upside is always infinity if not shorting...
But, seriously, the auction "circuit" evidently is seeing much "recycled" coins.

Bear

RC, was that Columbia Half yours too?

RegistryCoin

My stuff went to the recent Heritage Fun. I will have a few at the Heritage ANA in Portland, but that's it guys...
After that, I'm a buyer again. (Which is a heck of a lot more fun!)

Bear

True, buying is always more fun then selling.

Keeps the adrenalin flowing.

RegistryCoin

Both keep the adreline flowing for me, but I sleep when buying, not selling. (Can't seem to get the hang of "hibernation")

Bear

Well, it helps to keep a supply of jelly donuts

near the bed. A little sticky , but tasty.

tradedollarnut

Mitch: the basic flaw in your premise is that the sheets mean anything at all. When a PQ coin comes along, they are being completely ignored. And the coin isn't having to go up for the dealer to make money.

wondercoin

"Mitch: the basic flaw in your premise is that the sheets mean anything at all. When a PQ coin comes along, they are being completely ignored. And the coin isn't having to go up for the dealer to make money."

TDN: Yes and no. I think we can at least agree that a 27(s) dollar in MS64 doesn't often sell for ariound $5,000 with a sheet of around $500.

One more thing, I sat next to a dealer at Superior (a very successful upgrader) who had a number of coins consigned in the sale. I had notes on a few lots I was interested in bidding on. Turns out (3) of them were this dealer's own consignment coins. In all (3) cases, the dealer told me the coins were consigned to the auction at significantly less money than what the coins cost in the firstplace at auction (he told me what he had to pay for the coins and how many times he tried them). Unfortunately, he had paid so much in the first instance that even though he reserved them at upwards of 1/2 his original cost, I could not play on them at those levels. All (3) coins failed to meet reserve in the auction (so he hasn't lost anything yet!)

But, I do appreciate the possibiity (and agree in some cases) that a decent portion of the upgrade risk amount can be recouped later in a future auction.

Wondercoin

Wondercoin

roadrunner

Believe me that there is plenty to lose when the upgrader's coins don't work. IF not well capitalized, and most aren't, they simply cannot afford to be sitting on $5,000-$20,000 coins for months at a time while the market moves away from them. This is money that would be spent for buying other upgrade shots and making them work. A few poor purchases and the upgrader is heading out of business. That's where most upgraders eventually end up...out of money.

roadrunner

lava

I really enjoyed this thread, and it helped me understand why some of the coins I have been bidding on are going for money at the next grade.

WalkerGuy

Okay, so a coin has a shot. We all get excited when a coin makes a next grade, and if it makes it, are we talking a just barely made it coin, lower 25% within the grade? How many of us are collecting just barely in the grade coins? Does it become the holder then or is it the coin? That's a topic that has been shared around here many times!
Upgrades are terrific, and I've been happy to make a few, but I have also sold every one of the upgrades I've made and not kept a single one in my collection. I do have to say none of them have been pop 3 or less coins though.
So, upgrades seem to be a lot about making money in my opinion, and watch what happens when the market is not on an upturn and maybe goes flat even, no down turn, just flat. A lot of folks are out of business, just like buying on margin.
As a collector, not a dealer, I've turned down most of these just made coins, they didn't make their grade originally for a good reason.
Just my humble opinion.
Dick

roadrunner

Walker Guy is correct. The high end coins will help protect you much better when things fall apart. Those are the coins that will trade and bring substantially more money than their low-end brethren.
Low end coins will not trade unless you discount to most of the next grade down. That time is coming again....actually it is still with us in certain unpopular series.

During the 1981-1982 bear market (and this was a real bear too) dealers consistently required more and more "coin" for their dollar.
Decent MS65's only a year earlier just couldn't bring 65 money any more. It now took a superb 65. And eventually it took a 66 or even a 67 coin to fetch 65 money. The sheets didn't keep up with the drop in prices, but dealers compensated by getting ultra strict with the grading.

If you are gonna sit tight during the next downturn, you want to be into only higher end coins.

roadrunner

oreville

Now I have a real problem with this thread. No one has even dared to comment on it.

I kept staring at wondercoin's posting is total disbelief. In shock, in dismay.

Now wondercoin, I must ask you this one little question.

I hope you can handle it like a man just like those men handle themselves in tomorrow's game.

Now here goes:

What in the heck is a preminum quality coin?????????

wondercoin

Oreville: That spelling wasn't so good was it?

Wondercoin

wondercoin

Craig - There were a couple decent looking common date Washington quarters in the Heritage sale, but, I had seen the coins before and was loaded up in those dates (heck, I have about (7) 52(s) quarters in MS67 all with different color patterns - it's enough already!), so I simply went home early and passed even sticking around to see where the bidding closed.

Incidently, there was a 54(s) quarter in the sale in PCGS-MS67 as well. I have no idea how it closed - perhaps "cheap". But, the coin had an extremely, extremely weak strike. PCGS has consistenly required a solid strike for this date to grade MS67 (compare the PCGS pop vs. NGC pop for this date in MS67 and IMHO it has everything to do with PCGS' requirement of exceptionally strong strike - not saying whether NGC or PCGS is right or wrong on the grading standard of this date) - I am not sure what I was missing as to why this particular coin graded PCGS-MS67 under their standard of 16 years? Perhaps if anyone bought the coin, they could comment on this once they receive it.

Wash quarters were few and far apart in these sales, which wasn't such a bad thing after 3 or 4 major collections have sold off here within the last 6-12 months.

Wondercoin

Whitewashqtr

FYI - The 1954-S PCGS MS67 quarter went for $1600 + juice. Considering this to be a weakly struck coin as mitch mentioned it did go "cheap". This coin was a pop 3 coin not too long ago and now its a pop 10 coin. $1920 for a pop 10 coin still seems cheap to me. But what worries me more is that there were seven newly made coins in the past few months and the pops will eventually go higher.

I could tell from the picture if it was a nice coin or not. Did anyone see it?

WWQ

washvarieties

roadrunner

Oreville, a PQ is simply a coin of increased quality such that it is worth more than the plastic surrounding it (assuming published values for said coin are 100% accurate to start with). Of all the coins surviving on average for each grade assigned, maybe 5-15% are PQ.

roadrunner