Are you a collector or an investor? Think about it..

TheRoach

Ok, here is the deal. I have been calling myself a collector for many years ( 15 to be exact ), but my urge to make a quick buck has gotten much stronger each year. I started picking up several nice rookie cards and putting them away for my future kids about 10 years ago or so.

I had a nice lock box with tons of cards in screw down holders. I remember a bunch of '93-94 Hoops Draft Redemption Jamal Mashburn and Chris Weber cards, Shaq rookies, Eric Lindros '90 Score RC, a off centered John Elway RC ( maybe the best card in the box ), a '89 Score Barry Sanders, '93 Jerome Bettis RC, and a few other similiar cards.

As the years went on and I realized that these cards weren't holding their value, I went ahead and sold them for some cash in order to buy some of the newer stuff. I did this each year and it has since become a vicious cycle for me. If I had every card that crossed my hands at one time or another, I'd be pretty wealthy.

Now I find myself with better quality, and much higher valued cards because I have evolved and consolidated my collection into higher end rookies. By doing this, I also compacted my collection down to about 40-50 cards, all rookies for the most part.

I still find myself with several lots of rookies who I think will make it one day. I have no rhyme or reason why I jump all over a guy at this point, but I will say that it is not because Beckett said to. I have several autographed rookies of Nic Jackson ( Cubs ), Jorge Padilla ( Phillies ), Jesus Cota ( Diamondbacks ), and Bill Hall ( Brewers ). I can not pass up a rookie of theirs for the most part because they are usually between $1 and $5 topps. I pick up BGS 9.5's or PSA 10's for like $10-$15.

Now, I am not sure if any of these guys will ever get called up, but when I initially flipped their cards over, they seemed to have impressive numbers ( power, RBI's, and avg. ) I am addicted to these players now and I hope to cash in on at least one or two of them one day. This leads me to believe that I have become a investor ( probably a bad one at that ) rather than a collector. My whole motive is to immediately sell the cards once one of these guys hits his first major League homer. The return on my $$$ would be phenomenal with any of these guys.

I still have my '87 Fleer Barry Bonds BGS 9.5, '98 SPx Finite Peyton Manning RC, Clinton Portis Playoff Prime Signatures Proof/25, and other cards that I plan on holding onto until my kids get older, but in the meantime I find myself spending alot of $$$ on rookies that I think will make it one day. Prospecting if you will. It's fun for me and a very low initial investment that actually has a HUGE return if any of these guys make it.

After all my blabber, I guess what I am trying to say is that you should invest in whomever you did research on and try to pick the diamonds in the rough that Beckett or lots of others have not yet even heard of. If you wait until Beckett puts them as one of their Top Prospects, it is way too late for the most part. Plus, the odds aren't much better that their guy ( Beckett's ) pans out any better than your choice.

If I listened to what Beckett said right now, I would have to spend a ton of $$$ on any Adam Loewen, Prince Fielder, B.J Upton, Joe Mauer, Jose Reyes, Hank Blalock, Rickie Weeks, or Delmon Young higher end rookie card to name a few. Out of the whole group, I would bet that only Hank Blalock, Prince Fielder and maybe Delmon Young become something worth talking about. But in the meantime, I would have to spend between $60-$120 for ONE, COUNT IT, ONE of their better rookies. If I decide to pick one of those players and pick up let's say 5 of their rookies, it would cost around $400-$500 give or take. I could spend about 15% of that $$$ instead on about 100 or so rookies of the guys I have decide to collect. If I lose out, it's not that bad financially. If the "Big Stud" that Beckett picked out can't hit that major league curveball, I'm $hit out of luck and about $400!!


Let's take a favorite of mine, Doug Waechter ( Tampa Bay, pitcher ). This guy came up late last year and looked phenomenal from what I saw. He had 2 tough losses to the Yanks but he didn't allow more than 2-3 runs in either game. He's only 23 and has already showed alot of promise. Not on the greatest team, but neither is Adam Loewen. That brings me to my next point. You could currently buy about 50-60 Bowman Chrome Doug Waechter rookies for the cost of ONE '03 Leaf Limited Adam Loewen rookie. Yes, the Adam Loewen rookie is autographed, but is it really that much better than 50-60 of the best rookies of Doug Waechter? Waechter has already showed promise against some of the better teams last year. Loewen is still in the minors. Go figure?? It's not like Baltimore is that much better than Tampa.

If you MUST HAVE an autographed rookie, then buy some '03 Leaf Certified Doug Waechter's for about $5-$6 a pop. They are serial numbered out of only 400 and you could probably pick up about 25 or so for the cost of the Loewen. Think about it.....


As usual, just an opinion for some of the newer collectors or investors.


TheRoach

calleocho

after shipping those great $1 to 5 cards become $5 to 10 cards...so even if they went up 100% in value from their original 1 to 5 bucks each you would only come out even and then you have factor in the cost of selling them on ebay 5% plus opening cost ..plus a lot of time packaging and going to the bank, post office, dealing with deadbeat bidders, taking pictures, listing items , feedbacks and the many unexpected little things that will come out............is it worth it?


it would seem like stocks might be the thrill of investing that you should try instead of plastic refractors with shiny pics of ball players..

stocks are more liquid than cards and require very little physical work.

stocks , real state and precious metals all make decent investments...if you want to leave something for your kids ..leave them those.

if you want to enjoy a good hobby, learn about the game of baseball and its history ...then card collecting might be for you.

Boopotts

Great post, calleocho-

To me, hearing anyone say how much they make speculating on rookie cards is like hearing someone boast about their consistent wins in the dice pit. The fact is, the market for RC's trends sharply downward-- nobody can change that, and it's almost impossible to make money under those conditions.

If someone wants to make money in cards, I would think the best way would be to take Joe Orlando's advice, and buy hi-end collectibles that have a history of appreciation. NM-MT pre-war stuff, '68 Topps test, '61 Fleer basketball-- I think all these will perform nicely over time.

toppsgun

Three words of advice, make it four:

1986 Donruss Kal Daniels




But wait, Jose Conseco was also in that set!

Never mind.

1420sports

buy hi-end collectibles that have a history of appreciation

I also recommend the mid grade cards of Mantle, lower grade cards of Ruth, Cobb, etc. These are the cards that most people can afford and there will always be a demand.

theBobs

<< <i>NM-MT pre-war stuff >>



Did Nm-Mt pre-war stuff exist before 1970? I am sticking with collector grade just in case...

estang

I consider myself a collector, not an investor. A good indicator for me is getting just as much satisfaction on filling a gap in one of my sets with a common than a star. I enjoy the hunt in finding and filling these gaps.

Now I will sell or trade doubles of raw or graded cards, in order to supplement the gaps in my collection.

It sounds from your post that you're a collector that places a large emphasis on the value or future value of a card that you purchase. Sounds like you keep only a few top cards to collect and speculate on new cards, while always being cognitive of their present and potential vaule. Sounds like you treat this as a hobby (fun), but act more like an investor.

I just don't believe cards printed in the late 80s to present will be good investments to go after. If you look at 83 to 85 rookies of Boggs, Clemens, Puckett and Gwynn, I think you'll find that they trade/sell at fairly disappointing prices in graded NM/MT or Mint condition. These are proven HOFers. They were printed when condition wasn't AS prelevant or detailed and when manufacturing techniques were not advanced to produce the % of Mint cards today.

As someone else mentioned, if you want to invest, you're better off going for stocks, bonds and real estate.

I believe the vast amount of brands and parallels/inserts are confusing for the collector today and be confusing for those in the future looking to purchase a card from this era that we're in. I think this will inhibit the investment of most all cards printed from late 80s until present. IMHO, The sooner the major leagues limit the licenses, printing and proliferation of brands, the better the hobby will be. Although this may hurt short-term revenues, I think it will benefit our hobby and leagues in the long-term.

toppsgun

No one knows what the future will hold, but raw vintage, subsequently graded 8 & 9 seems to be the best investment I've made in the last 5 years.

Not that there's anything wrong with stocks and real estate over the long haul. What was it Will Rogers said about real estate? "They ain't making none of that stuff anymore."

He also said he prefers the return OF his money rather than return ON his money.

Ruthfan

I hope most modern card collectors are just that collectors, because I really don't see any value in investing in these cards in the long run.

They way I see it, the reason modern graded cards are not holding any true value, current or future, is for a couple of reasons.

1. There are just way too many cards produced today. The numbers are astronomical. The card companies have killed the industry. They have run out of gimicks and the kids that do purchase these packs are spoiled and only want the high dollar chase cards. I have seen kids these days give the the regular cards back and just take the high dollar cards. They don't care about the regular star cards in the packs. I'm not sure what the card companies can do now since I believe they have reached the point of no return with these young kids and gimick card collectors. Game used and #'d cards have been way overdone, the only real thing left to do is keep up the autographed cards.

2. The big reason. The top condition modern cards are being slabbed right after they are pulled from
the packs so there is always going to be an over supply of high graded modern cards. The supply
outweighs the demand driving down the value of the cards. Since these cards are being slabbed,
they will always remain in high grade form. You can only have a certain amount of mint Arod cards
before the bottom falls out. I can remember PSA 10 1998 SP Vince Carter cards selling for $2,500 and up just 2-3 years ago and now those same cards sell for under $200. I sold a PSA Mint 9 SP Vince Carter rookie a couple of years ago to Dave & Adams for $1,100 and now that same card sells for under a $100.00. At the time Dave & Adams were buying Carter rookies in PSA 9 and 10 for some pretty nice prices. I'm sure they were being bought for a collector who is now stuck with a bunch of those cards that are barely worth a fraction of what they paid for them.

3. Collectible value comes from the supply versus the demand and the condition of the items in demand.
That is why vintage cards hold their value. When these vintage cards were produced and originally
purchased there wasn't really any monetary value placed on them as the people purchased them
for collecting, trading and more importanly the gum that was inside the packs. There was no
value in them with the kids that were buying them then. The cards would be traded, played with,
marked on and thrown away over time. There numbers of high grade or collectible grade vintage
cards far away outweigh the supply.

I believe that the only way a dealer or collector can make money on modern cards is to sell them when the player is hot or when a product is newly introduced on the market. It would be very difficult to purchase an already graded modern card and wait a couple of years to sell it and still make a profit.

That is why I stick to the vintage. You can go back and compare and yes some have dropped a little over time, but the majority of the cards have gained value or at least their value has been sustained over the past 3-5 years.

Todd

RayBShotz

Collector.
The commons are most satisfying in the set building process.
I have always viewed the money that I spend on cards as disposable. It never impacts my family finances or their standard of living. Instead of applying my weekly allowance to booze and cigarettes it is diverted to cards. Who would of thought that card collecting could be good for your health.
In this way my card collecting is sort of self supporting. If I want to start a new venture, I divest one I'm bored with. That resource and the steady flow of allowance keeps me in the regular loop of enjoying the hobby as a collector. The money, in and of itself is just not that important.
It's all cardboard; you cant take it with you and unless your collection values in 6 figures (or 7 for that matter) it's not going to make anyone else rich after your gone.
That's why a collector is not just an accumulator. Collectors focus on the fun they extract from what they collect. That's me.
RayB69Topps

koby

<< <i> I can remember PSA 10 1998 SP Vince Carter cards selling for $2,500 and up just 2-3 years ago and now those same cards sell for under $200. I sold a PSA Mint 9 SP Vince Carter rookie a couple of years ago to Dave & Adams for $1,100 and now that same card sells for under a $100.00. >>



Ouch. That is an extreme example, but I can't remember the last time red hot modern rookies sold for more down the road.

Stone193

Collector vs. investor - I think they are inter-related probably since the beginning of time - I have seen really old references to collecting and the concept of resale, investment, profit etc. were there. What may also be of interest is the "phases" that a collector goes through from the opening of the first pack of cards to an overstuffed closet and a wife complaining that this stuff needs to go! I'm a natural pack rat and never throw anything away - I like collecting things. But I would be lying if I didn't say that I can't help but consider the value of something in my collection. I guess it would be hypocritical of the collector to look down on the investor and complain how they killed the hobby.