Forget LeBron vs. Carmelo debate: Delmon or Rickie?
KallMaloneSay
Posts: 390 ✭
I went with Rickie Weeks, more proven at a higher level.
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I do not know much about Delmon Young, but I did read that he is projected to be a guy that should hammer out about 35-40 homers once he settles in. Now that = big Ebay $$$$. I picked up a Delmon Young SP Auhentic rookie and that will be it. Once the hype settles down on these guys, you will be able to pick up their rookies for about 40% less than you currently are. Just wait. Neither of these guys are going into the Hall Of Fame soon or going to pass up Aaron on the HR list just yet. But then again, by their current rookie price tags, you'd think they will be...
More overpriced rookies. Just what fuels the hobby...
TheRoach
02 SPA USA
or all the 03 releases?
wait someone explain to me why mac's 85 topps USA has RC next to it but the 2002 weeks doesn't?
Thanks
JS
Just like Pujols and Prior, right? Boy don't those idiot buyers that paid $150 for a Prior Ultimate Collection RC or $200 for a Pujols Bowman Chrome AUTO feel really stupid right now. Man, let's go back to ended ebay auctions from a year or two ago and make fun of all those buyers and really rub it in. C'Mon Roach, let's do it, it'll be fun to see just how retarded they feel.
Rickie Weeks will be a glorified Kenny Lofton at best
Or the next Ty Cobb with a career .350 average and eight batting titles. The guy only hit .495 with 20 HR's in his Sophomore season and .493 wth 17 HR's in his Junior season in about 54 games each year. Aluminum bat or not, that's impressive!
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The Weeks USA card is from an insert set, there are no regular MLB set releases with Weeks in it. I thought you were better than that Joey.
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Whether it be Bowman Chrome or Ultimate, I would stock up on both as far as your $$$ permit you.
I agree with Jason that these cards are potentially the next Pujols/Prior cards. What would someone pay for a Pujols #ed to only 50 as an auto like you could with a Weeks or Young card today ?
I'll go in with you Jason and we can buy all the cards on Ebay...lol
what someone from beckett told you?
JS
The sarcasm was noted. Remember this - hindsight is 20/20. It's really easy to point out 2 guys out of the last 10 years that have made a big increase in their rookie cards value, but I have a challenge for you since your sarcasm seemed to indicate you know so much.
Why stop with Pujols and Prior? Go ahead and make a list of the others that have made such a "great profit" since their rookie card was released. Let's compare your great investments with my list of rookies that have probably cost collectors tons of $$$$ because they were supposed to be "the next big thing". Trust me, I will definitely dig up this post to call you out again when the Rickie Weeks and Delmon Young cards are selling for 40% of what they are right now about 6-8 months from now.
I understand your apparent anger towards my comments because it is also apparent that you are one of the guys shelling out tons of $$$ on these guys right now, or you are trying to unload them on Ebay and you don't want the bad publicity on these players. It's cool though. I have the right to my opinion just as you do.
Your opinion on Rickie Weeks is based on hype that Beckett created or Ebay. The guy has hit minor league pitching well. Big deal. Do you know how many guys over the years have done this and then were never heard from again because they just couldn't hit Majr League pitchers? The list goes on forever.
Anyway, here is a quick 8 players that collectors easily could have lost a ton of $$$ on when the same hype was created for their rookie cards much like the hype from the Weeks/Young rookie cards. I will be waiting for your 8 players.
1. Rick Ankiel
2. Josh Hamilton
3. Hideki Matsui
4. Ichiro (only sells well because of the Asian activity )
5. Adrian Gonzalez
6. Lance Berkman ( his cards were a hell of alot higher not long ago )
7. Rafael Furcal ( Bowman Chrome rookie went nuts )
8. Travis Hafner ( Cards went nuts once Thome left and he didn't pan out )
Boy, my fingers are getting tired...
9. Travis Lee
10. Ching Fen-Chen
11. Hee Seop Choi
12. Carlos Pena
13. Francisco Rodriguez ( Angels )
The list goes on and on. Imagine what the loss would have been on some of these guys if they had low numbered, autographed rookie like the Ultimate Collection cards from 2001. Geez.
I wasn't bashing anything other than the hype that surrounds new rookie cards. You guys are TOTALLY on the bandwagon as if you were new to the hobby. Anybody will tell you to just wait and see. Waitinga year will not be too late. Why shell out the HUGE $$$$ on their cards now? I guess that is the real question. Do you really think if you buy one of their rookies right now for $200-$300 that you will make a profit on their cards sometime soon?
I don't have a crystal ball, but I can tell you exactly what will happen because it has happened to me before. You'll shell out a ton of $$$ right now for these guys during the worst time possible, when they are over-hyped. About 6 months will go by and you will realize that they have not been called up and probably won't be for another year or 2. their cards will really cool off because a new crop of players will come around and they will be kicked to the back seat. Their rookie values will drop by at least 30% or more. Eventually, they will get called up and if you are lucky - start hitting the ball well. Now you will decide to list your rookies but you will only make back the money you lost from what you originally paid for the card at it's inflated price months ago. And that is if you are lucky. Personally, I'd rather be on the flip side of that story. Buying low and selling high for a profit.
When you shell out $300 or more for one rookie card, you had better be damn sure that this guy is the next Pujols if you are looking for any kind of profit down the road. That's insane $$$ to be dishing out for a guy/guys that hasn't even seen the big show yet. It's just my opinion.
You gave the examples of Pujols and Prior. Great examples, but I can live with the fact that I missed these 2 guys knowing that I have saved a ton more by dodging all the "can't miss" superstars that are still in the minors or out of baseball period over the last several years. I may just use the money I have saved to buy myself a Pujols Bowman Chrome Auto or Prior Ultimate Collection RC.
TheRoach
1. Rick Ankiel: 99 Ultimate Victory came out at $50 and went to $125 (I think) Profit = 250%
2. Josh Hamilton: 99 Bowman Chrome came out at $15 and went for $40 Profit = 266%
3. Hideki Matsui: He's no prospect, no room for Japanese Hall of Famers that are "Rookies"
4. Ichiro: (See Matsui) will still make the Hall of Fame and a .400 season would create a nice spike
5. Adrian Gonzalez: You might have me here, although don't give up on a 23 year old still doing relatively well
6. Lance Berkman: 97 Bowman Chrome came out at $10 and hit $40 Profit = 400%
7: Rafael Furcal: 99 Bowman Chrome came out at $6 and hit $50 Profit = 833% (Making it too easy one me)
8. Travis Hafner: (Dude, I made so much money on this guy last year, thanks for this gift of one)
9. Travis Lee: 97 Bowman Chrome came out at $25 and was an easy sell at $50 Profit = 200%
10. Chin Feng Chen: Alright now this guy just sucks, you win here
11. Hee Seop Choi: 01 Donruss Elite Xtra came out at $30 (?) and went up to $150 Profit = 500%
12. Carlos pena: (another guy I made a ton on) 99 Bowman Chrome came out at $4 and went up to $40 Profit = 100%
13. Francisco Rodriguez: (I guess you saved your worst example for last, great job) 00 Bowman Chrome came out at $1 and hit $15 Profit = 1500%
Thanks for that list, hope that helps. You don't think I realize these guys are all down now? If you want to use the "Hold onto Every Card You Own for Eternity!" approach then eventually you die and your cards are worth nothing to you anyways, and poor Marshall Fogel won't be able to sell them to the casket that will one day sit next to his. I guarantee you that the best way to make money on the hobby for the average collector through ebay/shows is to buy prospects and sell them when they hit a potential peak. Everyone who has played this game correctly has to know that. I probably had 80 Dontrelle Willis Chrome pass through my hands at an average buy of $4 and an average sell (with all the PSA 10's I got) at $50. I don't really care what he does after that. All of your 50's and 60's cards will go down in value as more people that watched those players die off, because nobody will remember them, they will recall the guys they saw play. Thanks for the 13 players you picked, that was extremely easy. What's next? Fourth order derivatives or Particle Physics?
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i wish.
i paid up to $876.00 for his rookie cards.
fleer updates.spx autos you name it.
the good news is i still give him 3 years
and i have 80% of the psa 10s in the cards
that count.of course i figure to drop 20 large
but thems the breaks.fwiw he is still the best (L)
ive seen since koufax zito included.
You totally dodged my question for you. I wanted another 8 players with the same impact that Pujols and Prior have had on the hobby in terms of current value. Your answers to my list of guys was ridiculous. Sure, alot of players went up initially, most will. But are you going to sit here and lie and tell me that you had a boatload of Francisco Rodriguez rookies for $1 a piece, and then sold them the following month after they went to $15? Bull$hit. Just because Beckett has the cards at $1 and you have to wait until the following month to see a jump in value if a particular guy is tearing it up, that doesn't apply to Ebay. Once Francisco Rodriguez started tearing up the playoffs, his cards were selling for alot on Ebay well before the Beckett jump.
Let me guess, you bought all your cards at opening Beckett values and ONLY SOLD THEM WHEN THEY WERE AT THEIR HIGHEST VALUE?
Wow, that is an amazing trick!! You could make tons of money on Ebay if you sell your trick or auction off your crystal ball. Don't feed me bull$hit about "when to sell". I never said you had to hold onto these guys forever. Heck, most of the cards I mentioned aren't much older than 5 years old. I made alot on Travis Hafner also, but my whole point is that there isn't a modern day rookie card ( other than Prior or Pujols ), who is significantly more valuable than his initial opening Beckett value. The ratio is like 2:1500 when you are comparing success stories to losses as far as moder rookies are concerned.
Here is how we can clear this up. Let me know who you are collecting now and your current "buy" prices. I will follow these guys and actually watch to see if you make any money. You already show interest in Weeks and Young. Have you bought any Ultimate Collection rookies of these guys? If they don't come up this year, when would be a good time to sell those guys? Why buy them now at all? Won't the lack of Major League exposure hurt their values? Prior and Pujols cards did not move until they displayed Major League success.
I am waiting to hear your few players who have enjoyed a great deal of profit on their rookie issues. Your looking at it from a true investor standpoint. I am asking on behalf of someone looking to put cards away for their kids. Not spend every waking minute on Ebay or ESPN trying to find the next big rookie card that they can buy now and then sell tomorrow for a profit. Who is a good investment in this case. Who is a good shot at going up from their current price and then at least holding, if not increasing, their value down the road?
Thanks.
TheRoach
from a pop standpoint probably no one.
however for an inside track @ who might
be a sleeper read MONEYBALL and then
head over to baseballamerica.com.
in fact right now they have complete stats
of last year's minor leaguers and particular
attention to OBP and OPS might help.
Michael Hinckley
Adam Wainwright
Guillermo Quiroz
Dustin McGowan
Aaron Hill
Jamie D'Antona
Jeff Mathis
Edwin Encarnacion
Matthew Peterson
Jo Jo Reyes
JJ Hardy
David DeJesus
How do you want to play this game? Check back on Opening Day? Check back at the All Star Break, or in a year? You've got 12 names, I'd be willing to bet that at the very least six of them have their Bowman Chrome RC (except Mathis has an 01 Topps Chrome Traded and Encarnacion 01 Topps Chrome) double in price at some point in the next year. Their current Chrome RC prices are $40, let's say I have 10 of each for a $400 price tag (I have way more than that and I paid way less).
And now you're calling me a liar. Hmmm. So I must be lying that this was my PSA order (order 4084333 zip 89121) and that I paid an average of $4 each for those Dontrelle's on the submission form and that I sold the PSA 10 Dontrelle's for an average of $200 each and the PSA 9's on thepit.com at an average of $65 each. I must also be lying that I bought the Rich Harden Xfractor that got a PSA 10 on that invoice for $12 raw, submitted it and sold it for $365 on ebay right after his first start. Man, I am a terrible liar then I guess guys.
I must also be lying when I say that I had a ton of Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, and Jeremy Reed Bowman Chrome regulars and parallels that I paid about $3 each for and with grading probably got about $18 each average.
Let me continue my lying you guys, this must not be another one of MY SUBMISSIONS (order 8040293 zip 89121) and those aren't the first PSA 10's in existance on both the Reed Refractor and Xfractor. I also am lying that I got $180 for the Xfractor and $150 for the Refractor and lying when I say that I got them from griffey3 (ebay id) in huge lots of Xfractors and Refractors that I won for about 30% of book when the Reeds were $25 for the Refractor and $30 for the Xfractor.
Shall I go on? Sure, I'll go on with my lies you worthless little scuzzball. These are not my BGS cards that I got from a Raw Card Review submission at the Labor Day San Francisco Tristar, the dates must not match up, right? I got $235 for that BGS 9.5 Reed Xfractor that I probably paid $30 for raw (must be lying again).
In closing Roach (a fitting name for you), I own a card store now because I do know what I'm doing in this industry. Ask any major prospect collectors on ebay, I am the best dealer on the planet when it comes to buying and selling prospects. That might sound arrogant, but it's also true. My store was turning a profit by its third month despite not being listed in the phone book, which every business owner tells me is phenomenal, especially since things are picking up more by the day. Have I taken losses on some prospects? Sure. It's rare, but I do. I know when to buy cheap, sell when near maxed out, and how to get an extremely high percentage of PSA 10's as my numbers show. So go crawl back under the rock from whence you came, because you're not worth my time anymore. You can catch me at the Hollywood Park or San Fran Tristar in February, at my current store, or my second store which will be opening in November or December.
Sincerely,
Jason C. Adkins
owner of Baseball Card Heaven and clearly a much smarter man than Roach
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You win. You got your point across and at the same time hyped up you and your little store that will be closed down within a year or so like all of the others. It's obvious that you get good grades because of your large submissions. We all know that. Most of your cards are probably bought cheap because you rip off the little kids that come in and buy packs, pull something good, and you offer them dirt for it. I've seen that too many times.
Do you feel better now that you bragged up yourself and your store? Good. Let me know when you come around to the Chicago shows ( Sportsfest or Tri-Star show ), and I'd love to meet you and your "greatest sportscards in the world". Furthermore, after all those self accolades, I would be more interested in meeting such a god like yourself.
This was just some stupid opinions on a message board that you apparently spend too much time on. How do you do that with such a great store to run? You turned this into a personal attack. I did imply that you lied, but big deal. If that's the worst you have been called, let's get on the phone. I started my opinion on this post by giving my feeling on Rickie Weeks and Delmon Young. You tried to play "funny guy" and ridicule my thoughts on their cards. I took offense and here is where we are.
You obviously take this board way too serious man. Chill out. Seriously, let me know when you are in town for one of our big shows. I'd like to meet such a calm and cool guy. I have learned a ton from you. Thank you!
TheRoach
Michael Hinckley - Expos pitcher in Class A. Perhaps they will have some offensive players left by the time he's ready for the majors. Even better, maybe they will have moved out of Quebec.
Adam Wainwright - Braves pitcher in Class AA. Excellent prospect.
Guillermo Quiroz - Blue Jays catcher and one of their top prospects. Should start the season in the majors. You can find some of his other serial numbered rookies in dollar bins or cheaper (I've picked up 3 this way).
Dustin McGowan - Blue Jays pitcher in Class AA. I have a hard time getting excited about a starter who is averaging 5 1/2 innings a start in the minors. Either he gets more stamina or he becomes a reliever.
Aaron Hill - Blue Jays prospect in Class A. Probably several years away from the majors at best.
Jamie D'Antona - Diamondbacks 3B prospect in low Class A. Don't expect him to even be called up before 2006 - at best.
Jeff Mathis - Angels catching prospect in Class AA. Unless he's good enough to beat out Bengi Molina, he'll need to move positions or teams. At this point, I don't see him behind the plate in Anaheim as more than a backup.
Edwin Encarnacion - Reds 3B prospect in Class AA without much power or speed but a good bat. Could make the majors before this year is over. Will disappoint those people who buy and hold, but could be a decent short-term moneymaker.
Matthew Peterson - Mets pitching prospect who dominated in Class A but had serious control issues in Class AA last year. He's probably at least 2 years away from seeing Shea Stadium without a ticket in hand.
Jo Jo Reyes - Braves pitching prospect in rookie league last year. Yawn. This one will not move much for a while.
JJ Hardy - Brewers SS prospect in Class AA. If he starts playing well, look for him to be traded before he can actually command a decent salary. Bud Selig won't pay for more than one hot prospect.
David DeJesus - Royals OF prospect in Class AAA. This guy must ask for Carlos Beltran's trade in his prayers every night. He looks to be a future solid major leaguer. Unfortunately, if he becomes one in Kansas City, no one will care.
I would be willing to bet that at least half of these players flop miserably on the field (i.e., never become regular major leaguers for a full season). That people are willing to pay these kinds of prices for one particular one of their rookie cards shows that the rookie card market is in a tulip bubble phase.
Dealers can make money playing musical chairs with rookie cards. Collectors will take huge losses overall doing so. This will not continue indefinitely.
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Shhhh. Keep my little secret quiet. That's exactly how I do it. I have seven year old kids dish out $100 for a pack of Ultimate Collection, and when they pull the Delmon RC AUTO I give them twenty five cents for it so they can go buy a stick of gum. It's a beautiful system that I pull twenty times per day.
Our current ebay auctions, and of course BaseBallCardHeaven.com
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
Need to buy something for the wife or girlfriend? Check out Vintage Designer Clothing.
Now that has some partial truth to it. If you want to be a buyer, this is the best town on earth as far as people desperately needing money. Still, I pay a higher percentage than any other card shop in this town, so I'm the least guilty of exploiting this. You got to know how to play the game. Many of my non-prospect ebay auctions are Auto's and jersey cards that I picked up from people selling in my shop. A fair amount of decent vintage comes in as well. Just passed on an EX 50/50 centered Mantle 53 Bowman because the seller and I were a little off on price.
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So, knowing the Hobby as you do, have a desperate customer who needs to get back home, what % do you pay on the B.C. Gold or Ultimate ??
If you were aware of past threads I am usually in agreemant with Jason ( KallMalone) and my question was a bona fide one as I was curious as to the % card shops were paying for single cards or lots.
Card dealers ususally pay highest on small lots and less on large because of the work involved.
I haven't sold to card shops in years due to Ebay, where I find I make more money.
Just curious as to what Jason would pay on a good current single...% wise.
The "war" between Roach & Jason is just Standard Operating Procedure when you have two different viewpoints. This board should never be squeamish about examining all points of view; everyone here can defend themselves well and usually don't need a referee.
Your kindly intervention is noted, but not needed.
My intent was not to referee but as you said about speaking - I was expressing MY opinion - it's one thing to state your case and another to reach a point of characterizing something - there's nothing wrong with being civil at the same time you are expressing an empassioned opinion. As I said, this will be enlightening and entertaining.
As for what I pay percentage wise, I never make an offer first. I have every item that I own priced, and I expect the same from someone trying to sell their own merchandise. If I think their price is too high, I give them a number back that I feel is worth it to me.
I have no ill will to anyone on these boards and I don't go around calling people liars, so don't do it to me.
Jason
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Jason is right that he has been a long-time poster and his opinions are valued because he has substantial things to say; you will find people who post with outrageously prolific post numbers, but this isn't any indication of expertise and can sometimes be the converse.
I'm fairly new here too, but I quickly gleaned the issues and the "players" on the board as far as temperament etc.
It is always a good idea to maintain civility, no matter the disagreement; sometimes this cornerstone of respect gets neglected in the heat of the moment, but I can honestly say there is little "real" bad blood here, though I can see some members are certainly antagonistic for the "fun" of it, while others are being true to their sense of right or wrong....you will find out for yourself who these people are or not...its not up to me to color anyone's impressions.
We are all here for fun, diversion and to trade valid hobby information with each other; for the most part this can be done in a congenial atmosphere, but there will always be moments of tension and friction when you do have divergent passionate opinions.
The intermittent flash points are well worth the value of dialogue and free speech, which exists in limited form on a private run board.
Kick back, have fun and don't be afraid to show your own voice !
Mike T.
Beachbum
I respect those words of encouragement - I would rather sit here and listen to the radio and talk about sports and related topics - I found myself watching too much TV and eating - this has been very uplifting and entertaining, not to mention eye opening - you guys know a lot about the market!
I have no ill will to anyone on these boards and I don't go around calling people liars, so don't do it to me.
Jason >>
Just remember, I wasn't the one who was sarcastic with his reply. Go look at the top of the thread if you don't remember. You made remarks of how we should go and prove the others wrong after giving a good example of a success story on the Pujols and Prior rookies.
I have no ill feelings towards anyone either. But keep in mind one thing. I really could care less how many posts one has on this board when it comes to respect. A new guy to the boards with 30 years of collecting experience will still only start at his 1st post. Post counts will just tell you how much time someone has to sit on their computer each night.
If I don't like someone's opinion, I give them mine. If they turn on me, I retaliate. It's only natural.
I will try to keep my posts geared towards Sports Talk and not bickering going forward. I have been collecting for several years, and I feel I still have some stuff to learn, but at the same time, I have alot more to offer.
TheRoach
but at the same time, I have alot more to offer
I'm here and always enjoy learning and listening - by the way, what do like for lunch?
Mike
There is a RIGHT and a WRONG way. You obviously have to determine which is which because it usually only comes down to opinions. Welcome aboard and be sure to buckle up.
TheRoach