Cracking Packs for cards

robr1967

Hey All:

I was wondering about this topic, and wanted to post it to see what you guys thought.

I am slowing starting work on a 1975 Topps BB set. This is going to be a very long drawn out process for me. I don't really feel like fighting the big guys, for the low pops commons yet, since I am just starting out.

My question is this.

Do you think it would be worth it, to buy packs from 1975 in my case to crack open and submit. In hopes of getting low pop commons, or even stars?

Wanted your thoughts, before I do something drastic that I might regret later.

Thanks
Rob Ruth

helionaut

Unless you can be absolutely positive the packs aren't tampered with, and they are in great condition on the outside, I'd stick with searching out raw stuff or buying cards already slabbed. Packs go for, I think, $40-60 each, more for cellos and racks. That's about $4 per card already invested. The best rate you might get is $6 or so for grading, so each card you get graded already cost you $10. You might get 9s or star cards in 8s or 9s, but I don't think the odds are in your favor. There really aren't any low pop commons anymore, and the ones that do draw heavy bidding will come down as the people who are willing to pay $30 or more acquire them. At least 80% of the cards in the set sell for less than $10 in 8, including former bidding-war-fodder cards like #266 Alomar, #402 Tolan, #405 Montague, #499 Perez, and a lot of HOFers, too.

That isn't to say there aren't any tough cards. A #481 McEnaney sold for $50 a few months ago with a pop of 14, IIRC. A #601 Beniquez sold for $50 a while ago, and another sold for $20 last week. The first #133 Driessen I can remember seeing in a long time sold for $18.50 last week. But now that those winners, all big players, have their cards, the next ones will be lower. A #649 Heidemann or a #647 Washington will still draw strong bids, but nowhere near what they once were. Pick up the first 600 cards as cheaply as you can, and I'm sure by the time you are down to the toughest cards, they won't seem so tough anymore.

Right now there's an interesting gap in the current set rankings between #10 and #11, about a quarter of the set. The guys at #11-20 seem to be the guys who won't go over a certain amount for common cards. Plus, 9s are becoming a little cheaper and more plentiful, so some people are forgoing 8s and moving up. So I think prices for almost all 8s will be pretty stable-to-soft for a while.

onegaucho

If you're willing to be patient, I'd wait on the sidelines for singles. Big auction houses sometimes sell raw cards in huge lots.

Buying packs/cases can be risky, unless you know who you're buying from. I won 1300 raw NRMT/MINT singles from a Superior auction several years ago. Man, that was one of the best things I've done since I started collecting.

packCollector

1975 topps regular issue packs sell for more than the mini's and it doesn't seem to be a cost affective approach. I have opened several cellos and regular issue packs over the past year for fun . even when I did get some good pulls , centering and print issues keep the cards from grading high. It's probably much cheaper to search for already opened raw and grade them out. Unless you pull a psa 10 of the big cards , I can't see it being cost effective. 1 other note , if you still want to open them , try to buy a full box as your odds should be better on getting a good dispersion. Steve Hart has cello boxes straight from a case for around $2000, it's a good bargain and they are selling cheaper due to alot of product showing up in the last year. Don't bother with wax or racks, the boxes sell for a premium due to their relative scarcity.

1954

Rob-
If it were me I would go hunt these cards down at shows and shops. There are many ways to find raw material of this year without breaking wax packs. I remember 4 years ago Gaspipe would sell me lots of 100 cards from 1974-75 that would garnish many PSA 8's and 9's. The lot cost me $35 many times. I would also buy complete sets to find those mint cards.
best of luck
1954

Fuzz

Rob,
Have played this game with mixed results seems right on. If you are going to open you need to open quantity to insure that you have a reasonable chance of getting something good. Thetimes that I have done well have been in hundreds of cards. The not so well times in the ten or so card range.
Anyway, the math is pretty easy.
Let's assume $4 a card and 500 cards in a box. These numbers I believe are about correct. If you use $10 for an average PSA 8 including stars and $40 for a PSA 9 on average. Real 75 guys can correct these numbers and the math is easy to change. Lastly, let say we will submit the best 100 cards. At $6 per card for submission as an average, you are out $2600 for the deal in expenses. The four hundred leftover cards I will value at 50c per (and again guys, I am not a 75 guy so these numbers may be off a bit but the process I think is sound). That is $200 leaving the 100 graded slabs being worth $2400 to break even. At $24 a piece, you need about 50% 9's and the rest 8's to break even on the deal. If you can garner even one 10, then the numbers will be much better but I suspect that 10's are few and far between and I certainly wouldn't count on one.
So, if you think you can get 50 9's from a box or take a shot at a few 9's being stars that could help the average, then give it a try. Sounds a bit high based on my experience. I'd put my money on the pass line for a better bet.
I think the only way to manage these risks are to buy guarenteed clean bargains. If you can manage the card price it can work. My last "buy for break" was a 64 t BB vending box of high numbers. I paid just under $18 a card. If I recall at the time, Beckett NM raw was $17. I had a test submission and so far so good. The 9's are over $100 so that helps off set any mistakes pretty fast. So far I think it is about 10% 9's but I pulled only about five card numbers. The major problem was centering.
Control the cost of the cards and I think it will work out well. 75 material is relatively plentiful so I would bargain shop the major auctions till you get something more manageable.
Fuzz

Ripken

Rob,
A lot of '75s --even in PSA 9--can still be had cheaply. And here's a shameless plug--I have some closing tomorrow night as well as some nice SCD graded 9 cards that will probably cross to 8.

Opening pre -80 packs is really a crap shoot. I've seen too many that have been tampered with, even though the current seller may not be aware of it. I bought a '74 pack from a guy with a very good feedback record but I was convinced the pack had been gone through based on several factors. He claimed innocence--pointed to his lack of complaints and reputation and wasn't about to refund my money. I'd agree your best bet is to avoid that unless you're just opening the pack for fun and consider anything gradeable a bonus.

GoSoxBoSox

In my experience the boxes you can buy cost much more than they are worth after you open them. Centering is usually too bad to find enough cards to grade 8 or higher. Then add grading fees on top.