Thoughts on one year of building two sets
AlanAllen
Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭
Shortly after discovering the set registry in late 2002, I chose two "true" football sets to pursue: 1962 Fleer in PSA 8, and 1989 Score in PSA 10. This was a departure for me as I generally collect player sets and theme sets. I started each set about a year ago per my records - 12/11/02 for 1962 Fleer and 1/29/03 for 1989 Score. Today I'm between 75% and 80% on both sets.
The 1962 Fleer PSA 8+ population has doubled in that time (from about 400 to about 800). Still, prices keep going up and competition keeps getting stiffer. I look back on prices realized on auctions I passed on in early 2003, and cringe that I did not bid. The vast majority of the set I've built card-by-card on eBay, with one offline deal with a fellow collector and one 6-card purchase from a dealer. I've won less than half of the auctions I've bid on for this set, despite some pretty aggressive bidding.
The 1989 Score PSA 10 population has exploded in the past year. At the start of 2003, the vast majority of the set had never seen an example submitted, and an average of only 1 in 36 cards submitted came back a 10. Today that ratio is 1 in 11, and every card has been submitted 10+ times, with less than 1% of the set yet to see a 10 slabbed. Are dealers pickier about submitting commons? Are PSA's standards becoming more lax? Does PSA scrutinize stars more closely than commons? Based on my review of the common 10's I've bought, dealers are just more careful about selecting commons for submission. I have not noticed a significant difference between early graded and recent graded cards from this set, and only a few of my 10's are sliders. Anyway, getting this set to 75%+ has been painfully easy. I've won more than three quarters of the auctions I've chosen to bid on, and have been offered numerous offline deals. Most of my set has come from bulk offline offers from dealers, and all have been very reasonably priced.
Do my experiences mean that vintage 8 sets are tougher to build than modern 10 sets? Draw your own conclusions, but I'm certainly of that opinion now. Most on this board would probably agree and would have told me that a year ago, but I'm a "prove it to myself" kind of guy.
On a personal level, building my first vintage set has me more stoked about vintage singles than I have been in 23 years of collecting. I'm looking at pre-war football, which I NEVER cared about before, and my interest is growing in 50's and 60's too. That said, I don't think I'll build another vintage set any time soon. I am much more interested in stars and rookies from various sets than I am about a bunch of commons from one set. To each his own.
Also from a historical perspective, only two categories of cards have never seen a major relative value decline since I started collecting in 1980: high grade vintage RC's, and quality unopened material. Set building is a staple of the hobby, but its popularity has waxed and waned over the years and I'm not convinced graded sets are here to stay. Although I am a collector first and not an investor, I can't ignore historic trends and all else equal, I'll buy the stronger performing asset.
Joe
The 1962 Fleer PSA 8+ population has doubled in that time (from about 400 to about 800). Still, prices keep going up and competition keeps getting stiffer. I look back on prices realized on auctions I passed on in early 2003, and cringe that I did not bid. The vast majority of the set I've built card-by-card on eBay, with one offline deal with a fellow collector and one 6-card purchase from a dealer. I've won less than half of the auctions I've bid on for this set, despite some pretty aggressive bidding.
The 1989 Score PSA 10 population has exploded in the past year. At the start of 2003, the vast majority of the set had never seen an example submitted, and an average of only 1 in 36 cards submitted came back a 10. Today that ratio is 1 in 11, and every card has been submitted 10+ times, with less than 1% of the set yet to see a 10 slabbed. Are dealers pickier about submitting commons? Are PSA's standards becoming more lax? Does PSA scrutinize stars more closely than commons? Based on my review of the common 10's I've bought, dealers are just more careful about selecting commons for submission. I have not noticed a significant difference between early graded and recent graded cards from this set, and only a few of my 10's are sliders. Anyway, getting this set to 75%+ has been painfully easy. I've won more than three quarters of the auctions I've chosen to bid on, and have been offered numerous offline deals. Most of my set has come from bulk offline offers from dealers, and all have been very reasonably priced.
Do my experiences mean that vintage 8 sets are tougher to build than modern 10 sets? Draw your own conclusions, but I'm certainly of that opinion now. Most on this board would probably agree and would have told me that a year ago, but I'm a "prove it to myself" kind of guy.
On a personal level, building my first vintage set has me more stoked about vintage singles than I have been in 23 years of collecting. I'm looking at pre-war football, which I NEVER cared about before, and my interest is growing in 50's and 60's too. That said, I don't think I'll build another vintage set any time soon. I am much more interested in stars and rookies from various sets than I am about a bunch of commons from one set. To each his own.
Also from a historical perspective, only two categories of cards have never seen a major relative value decline since I started collecting in 1980: high grade vintage RC's, and quality unopened material. Set building is a staple of the hobby, but its popularity has waxed and waned over the years and I'm not convinced graded sets are here to stay. Although I am a collector first and not an investor, I can't ignore historic trends and all else equal, I'll buy the stronger performing asset.
Joe
No such details will spoil my plans...
0
Comments
Chris
<< <i>Are PSA's standards becoming more lax? Does PSA scrutinize stars more closely than commons? Based on my review of the common 10's I've bought, dealers are just more careful about selecting commons for submission. I have not noticed a significant difference between early graded and recent graded cards from this set, and only a few of my 10's are sliders. Anyway, getting this set to 75%+ has been painfully easy. >>
Joe:
Certain dealers who submit in bulk may also be submitting under a "slab only if the card gets a 9 or 10" deal -- realizing that they may have limited payback potential if a card only 8s. These types of deals are typically only offered to those who submit in massive bulks -- and oftentimes they are dependant on a certain critical mass combined with negotiated pricing deals.
That was very interesting. I think the set registry has brought out more collectors and their desire to be number one. It is funny how you look back at Ebay sales one year ago and see cards that went so cheaply, or even better cards that you passed on that you wish you now owned. I collect 1934 batter ups. I began this set back in August of 2002. I remember passing on PSA 4's and 5's because they were not good enough. Two years later I am kicking myself for not buying them. Over the past two years I have seen this set go from the ugly step sister to the fox of the family, two people making a graded set to 9 people aggressively buying these up, and the value of a PSA 4-8 triple in value.
1954
On the vintage front I've been working on the Philly football sets (64-67). I became interested in these sets after reading an article in Beckett Vintage (Yes, some of us do still buy Becketts). My observation on these sets have been that prices started out reasonable, but as pops rose prices started to rise also. It seemed as the cards became more readily available, more people opted to build the set. I am now starting to see prices stabilize and drop a little as pops catch up to the demand.
Overall, building these sets (as well as my SP Authentic Football sets) as been challenging as well as satisfying. You sometimes can't put a price on your collecting enjoyment. At the end of the day, they are still only just pieces of cardboard.