Opinions on Lebron James Rookie Cards -- Lunacy?

Sequitur

Hello all. I am a coin collector and normally participate in the U.S. coin forum, but wanted to pose a couple questions and seek advice from the knowledgeable people in the sport card forum.

A favorite pasttime of the coin folk is to rabidly attack the infomercial coin hustlers -- the ones who tell you, for example, "buy now! These gold-plated quarters are priceless!" Or, "limited time -- through the roof and to the moon!" Of course, the coins are worthless pieces of fecal matter, are offered week after week after week, and exist solely to lift dollars from the uninformed. (Hint: never, ever buy coins from a cable tv show or infomercial. They are dishonest, one and all. Another hint: when you see them pawing the coins with their greasy paws, guess what: they are destroying the value of the coins!)

So it is with some skepticism I watched an infomercial the other night, and I drew parallels to the coin infomercial hucksters. I swear the whole hour was devoted to one player and a dozen or more of his cards. Yup. Lebron James. "KING JAMES HAS TAKEN THE COURT!" this guy exclaimed. "Don't miss out like you did with JORDAN!" I was warned. "I've INVESTED MILLIONS IN THESE CARDS." I thought he was going to blow my center-channel speaker.

And the star piece of this collection, apparently, was some card he "carefully" removed from a "SI for kids" magazine, and as a bonus, he also sent you the actual magazine "WITH THE CARD UNCUT. I CAN'T BELIEVE WE'RE DOING THIS!" His head was about to explode.

I ask you, if you've seen this commercial, or ones similar to it, is this more hype for people, like me, who are uninformed about sport cards? Are millions of sets flooding the market, ensuring oversaturation for the next 100 years? Are the cards in these $59.99 or $99.99 "deals" worth anything?

Or, perhaps, many of you are snapping up all things Lebron. Is that the case? Can you trust anything these infomerciallers say?

Finally, if there was one Lebron card -- just one card -- that is available now and where a novice collector like me could place some money and acquire a few cards to stick in a shoebox for a couple decades, what would you reccommend?

Thank you.

brianwintersfan

That would be Ken Goldin.
Run as far away as you can from him!!!

2323

He was on last night yelling into the tv about lebron. He wanted like $79.99 for three cheap cards graded 10 by some hack grading company, and some stupid porcelain figurine. I was thinking to myself that I wouldn't order that lot if everything was free, but I had to pay the shipping.

I know nothing about coins, but I see those coins on tv, like the colored quarters, and I think, "you know, maybe that would be kinda cool to have."

So I think since you don't like the coins on tv, and I don't like the cards on tv, maybe we should agree to not buy any of that stuff on tv. If you want a Lebron James card that is actually worth something, I could look on ebay for you and post a link. But my advice would be to wait a year or two, you'll get his cards a lot cheaper then, because the next hot rookie is less than a year away.

NickM

I agree with 2323's advice to wait until next year on Lebron James cards. As more and more sets come out this year, the prices on the existing ones decrease. If I had to pick which Lebron card would best hold its value, I would say that you should look for a rookie (meaning numbered as part of the base set) that is an autographed card or autographed game jersey card. SP Authentic is the most likely set for that to happen this year.

If you want to try to pull a Lebron card yourself from a pack, buy a hobby box of Upper Deck MVP. Unless you get really lucky and pull a gold or black parallel of Lebron, you won't have found a very expensive card, but you should get at least one, with the possibility of getting other inserts, parallels, or jersey cards of him as well. It's also among the cheapest products in price per pack.

Nick

koby

I agree with all that has been said about irrational initial feeding frenzies for new and hot rookie cards. As a general rule, they will not hold up in value. History has taught us the prices will fall in the next twelve months and over the next years prices will drop further. For basketball, let's loo at the last ten years: Harold Miner, Anfernee Hardaway, Grant Hill all turned out to be busts after intital excitement. Even players living up to expectations are less valuable than the first year of realease. Kevin Gernett and Yao Ming come to mind. Yao is having a season comparable to last year, but there is far less demand for his cards. As far as Lebron, he sure is fun to watch, but I think we cannot reasonably expect his card prices to hold up.

TheRoach

Well said Kobe. Lebron is ok to watch, but he will just be another scorer in the league next year. I know it took Jordan some time also, but the Cavs have a long way to go. These days players chase $$$ and are not loyal to their teams like the whole Bulls team was for awhile. I really think that Lebron will not win a championship until he goes to another team and we know that may be awhile.

One star on one team doesn't cut it anymore. Look how long Kevin Garnett has been struggling. The whole team has to gel and become one awesome force. Personal statistics need to be put aside. That is how the Bulls won so many championships. Role players. Now, everyone wants to be the star and if they can't... "Then trade me". Lebron is another good player on another NBA team. Most every team has one. Nothing new. Lebron James cards are WAY OVERPRICED AT THIS TIME.

I have always said that I would never spend anything near what I could pick up a Jordan RC for, on a modern day card. For some of the Lebron cards out now, you could literally buy a PSA 9 '86 Fleer Jordan RC!!! This is the guy that everyone is compared to and strives to be, why spend the same amount of $$$$ on a guy that is "supposed to be" the next Michael, when you can just get the REAL Michael Jordan rookie for the same $$$$???

I know that this is the wya the hobby works, but not for me. I don't like spending my hard earned money on players rookie cards that I find to only lose significant money down the road. That's not fun for me. As far as a investing standpoint, Lebron is just like a Dot Com company several years ago when it was the hot, new thing. Anyone who was looking for a significant return on that type of stock and held on to it too long, lost their a$$es. YOU WILL BE OVERPAYING FOR ANY LEBRON JAMES ROOKIE YOU PURCHASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS OR SO. Take the others advice, wait at least another year if you really must get some of his cards.

Here's another comparison. The most recent hype that can be related to what is going on with Lebron now, is back in 1992-93 when Shaq came out. This was even before serial numbered cards, jeresy cards, the autograph rage, etc.. and his cards were still selling for close to $100 for his Stadium Club Rc and like $75 for his Fleer Ultra. I probably even purchased some of these. Now, Shaquille O'Neal has done pretty much what people were expecting him to do. He came into the league, dominates down low, power dunks, multiple championships, etc.. and yet his cards are worth 1/10 of what they were going for back when he came out. You can get that same Stadium Club Shaq rookie that was selling for $100 at it's peak, for like $5 on Ebay. And that would be in great condition!

Grant Hill, Harold Miner, Alonzo Mourning, Christain Laettner, Danny Ferry, David Robinson, Chris Weber, Anfernee Hardaway, Jamal Mashburn, Shawn Kemp, Wang Zhizhi, Eddy Curry, Derrick Coleman, and Glenn Robinson to name a few of the "Can't miss" future NBA superstars at one point. You can get one rookie card each of the players listed for under $15 on Ebay right now. That is liek 14 rookies for like $1 each. My rule is to always wait off the hype. You will make tons more $$$ that way. Lebron isn't going to take Cleveland anywhere anytime soon, so just sit back and wait.


I hope this helps you in your decision to invest. Just my opinion though.


TheRoach

Sequitur

Thank you. These posts were informative, esp. the parallel to modern players (e.g. O'Neal, Hill, etc.) and the rapid fall in their rookie card prices. I thought as much when I watched that infomercial -- all hype, no substance. But I like a little gamble now and then, so maybe I'll pick up one of those Upper Deck MVP boxes and rip it to shreds!

Thanks again, and I will continue to look for responses to this topic.


(Oh, and 2323, those "colored quarters" -- for the love of the Virgin Mother stay away from those. The hucksters claim these quarters have been plated in gold and in platinum, and thus will bring a premium. It is a whopping LIE. The instant the hucksters plate a foreign metal (like gold) to the surface of an original coin, the value of that coin is utterly DESTROYED. Why? Because the United States government does not mint gold quarters, or platinum quarters, or any of these other baloney quarters. Collectors want original, pristine minted quarters -- or any other coin -- as they are issued from the U.S. Mint. Even *cleaning* a coin can obliterate its value. In any event, the amount of gold or platinum is so ridiculously thin that it adds nothing to the melt value. So stay far away.)

ctsoxfan

What the Roach said in his post is pretty much my feelings exactly on modern RC investments like Lebron, even though I admit I am guilty of chasing some of these type of cards myself. Having said that, I will be into Lebron and Carmelo cards in the next few months, but only as a seller. I got lucky and pulled some nice ones from the many wax boxes I go through, but I am not hanging onto these. Seems like now is a great time to sell them.

joestalin

Does anyone notice what these guys ARN"T ever selling:

Certified Autographs
Cards that you had to pull from packs that were say 1:500 packs to pull
Brands with a proven track record of success (SPA, SPx, Contenders...)

It seems like its all graded junk....hmmmm.....ever wonder why?

because its not rare and will never be. Chances are if they aren't blowing it out on the tv it will be
rare. Can someone honestly tell me of a card that carries a high value that you didn't have to
pull from a pack?

JS