How does Heritage come up with its auction lot price "estimates"?

shirohniichan

Every Heritage lot I bid on had a hammer price far above the estimates printed in the catalog. Is there any benefit to underestimating prices? For example, are there bragging rights for saying the auction brought in $xxx,xxx more than estimated?

I would think the estimates would be high to entice bidders to pony up more money when bidding.

MrEureka

For most coins, low estimates attract bidders and lead to higher prices.

JamminJ

Does anyone know is the estimate is realted to the reserve in any way?

Sorry you got shut out, Shiroh.

-JamminJ

shirohniichan

<< <i>For most coins, low estimates attract bidders and lead to higher prices. >>



The psychology behind that is probably more complicated than I expect. I know that starting eBay auctions at $9.99 for a $300 coin attracts more bidders, but it attracts a lot of low-ball offers. Setting a low reserve attracts more people, also. But I would think estimating a $500 coin's worth at $300 would lead to a lot of bids around $325 instead of $525.

There has to be some correlation to the reserve. Last year I was high bidder on a South African proof set with an estimate of $1,250 and I was only at $700 or so. Needless to say, I didn't make the reserve.

ccrdragon

S.W.A.G.

Scientific
Wild
A..
Guess

(at least for most of the ones that I've looked at...)

291fifth

A nearby auction house, no longer in business, used to grossly underestimate some coins in order to build up attendance. The would describe a coin as VG when the photo showed it was an easy XF. The ploy apparently worked, at least for awhile. This was back in the 1980's.

shirohniichan

<< <i>A nearby auction house, no longer in business, used to grossly underestimate some coins in order to build up attendance. The would describe a coin as VG when the photo showed it was an easy XF. The ploy apparently worked, at least for awhile. This was back in the 1980's. >>



Wouldn't they drive away consignors that way?

satootoko

My bid on this one is definitely closer to the low end of the estimate

I'd make a small wager that the other bidder's is too.

They have the same estimate range on all the Japanese coins in the auction.

SYRACUSIAN

That's a very good question shiroh and I really have no answer for it. All I know, is that all four (4) auction cats that I'm looking at these days, Ponterio, Stack's, UBS and Heritage have grossly undervalued items. Some Darkside rare coins are not very easy to determine a precise value,but we all know that there's no way that a choice-gem 100 Swiss francs gold 1925 will sell for only $5000 to give an academic example .