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16 days in 1979....or....the Last time gold hit 430

topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
skimmed off Kitco this AM

What next?

Who knows? But I am NOT gonna short gold.

Especially with about 50 times the money available to chase it than there was in '79

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    cladkingcladking Posts: 28,454 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There are a lot of differences between now and 1979. This is not so much
    a bull market in gold as a correction in the dollar. When this correction ends
    the price of gold will probably stabilize. This will not occur soon, though.
    Tempus fugit.
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Cladking, I agree with you and it appears most everyone on wall street does now too. Lots of strong buyers showing up now will likely propel gold towards the $460 mark sooner rather than later.
    I hope that gold falls back $30 so I can re-establish another oversold position, but I'm almost certain such an opportunity will not come again very soon.

    got gold? you mean that barbarous relic from ancient times that has no current role in today's hi-tech world economy? yes, that gold.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    michaelmichael Posts: 9,524 ✭✭
    the best gold to buy??

    choice to gem generic saints pcgs/ngc something that is in my opinion getting more numismatic everyday

    but coins with great eye appeal and little to no roll friction as usually seen on these coins in ms64 holders pcgs/ngc

    an ms 64 pcgs/ngc coin that is a really nice or close to ms65 coin and with great eye appeal and no copper spots and little to no roll friction no problems basically an ms64 coin with great lustre too and evne if a 1924 with subdued lustre as long as it has all the other positive attributes mentioned as per the above!
    coin when you tilt it in the light there is not the black rub spots on the knee a huge flattened nose the black rub on the tops of the eagles wings etc etc an ms64 that looks better when placed next to many ms65 generic coins and currently you can get two of these ms64 coins for around the same price for an ms65


    but time will tell as per the above

    michael
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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Michael, gold has gotten very close to fully generic again. Other than copper spots, as long as it is in the holder and looks ok from a foot away, it sells. I've picked out some real monster 64's and have been able to get say a 10% premium on them. But that's all. For all the effort involved, I'm just as happy to get decent 64's and leave it at that. The 64's started drying up as gold went over $390 the last time. You could get 62's and 63's but the 64's were very tough to find. I concur that those are like the IBM of generic gold....and at only 2x face value. What other 75 year old antiques in mint condition can you buy for 2x face value.

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    StuartStuart Posts: 9,761 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have always loved collecting both $20 Libs and Saints. Many feel (and I agree) that the $20 Saint is the most beautiful coin ever minted by the U.S. (large size, gold color, gorgeous design). I have accumulated some over the past 30 years, and wish that I had more of them.

    I have heard that there are alot more Saints available from European Bank Vaults than Libs. I think that the Libs are underappreciated and undervalued because they are overshadowed by the Saints.

    Eventually the Libs will break out and become more expensive than the Saints in lower grade Unc (perhaps except for the most common 1904-P). I am especially bullish on PL Libs.

    It was only a couple of years ago when I was buying all the $20's that could want at between $290 (AU/UNC) & $350 (MS-62/63). Today all of those purchases look pretty cheap, and I feel that gold will continue to increase in value as the dollar continues to decline, and as the U.S. inflates ourselves to decrease our national debt payments.

    It's nice when you can collect large beautiful gold coins that also provide you with a hedge against inflation and some real tangible asset security.

    Stuart

    Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal

    "Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
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    krankykranky Posts: 8,709 ✭✭✭


    << <i>What other 75 year old antiques in mint condition can you buy for 2x face value. >>


    From what I'm finding out, the answer is US stamps. I am helping a friend sell her late husband's collection. My goodness, I'm shocked at how little they sell for. Plenty of seventy-year-old stamps in mint condition sell for just about face value! Had he just put the same money into newly-issued US coins at face...

    New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.

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    roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Kranky, good point about stamps...but than again does a piece of paper have intrinsic value? The paper and glue may be worth 1/1000 of a cent. A wheatback penny has about 0.8 cents of copper in it at today's prices.

    Stuart, don't let the anti-gold, pro-paper crowd hear you talking about gold like that....or we'll have to listen to another diatribe on the merits of the DOW and S&P stocks in a long term retirement plan.
    If I hear one more of those arguments I'll be forced to buy some myself just to keep them quiet. I can't take it anymore!

    roadrunner
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sorry, no link but I did not know until now that ALL the guarantees on Japan bank accts expire in 2005. I knew about the dropping of coverage on CD's there but not ALL deposits. whew.

    Gotta ask what YOU would buy if you suddenly got a letter from your bank that said:
    "Hi, we ain't insuring NONE of your money. Have a nice day."

    ...................................................................................................................................................

    Japan gold rush seen ahead of bank deposit reform
    Fri January 9, 2004 03:48 AM ET
    By Miho Yoshikawa
    TOKYO, Jan 9 ( Reuters ) - All that glitters is gold.

    From cuff links to a bonsai tree with finely crafted spiky leaves, virtually everything on display at the store in Tokyo's ritzy Ginza district is made of the shiny metal.

    The store, run by Japan's top bullion house Tanaka Kikinzoku, was doing a brisk business at the start of the year with more than a dozen customers filling the room, most queuing at a counter to buy or sell gold bars and coins.

    Osamu Ikeda, general manager of the bullion house, said private investors continue to see gold as a way to diversify their investments.

    "There is more buying than selling taking place...because most private investors see gold as a long-term asset rather than a way to make a quick profit," Ikeda said.

    As evidence of how good business has been, he said Tanaka Kikinzoku has sold about 300 wooden chests filled with 10 kg of gold bars, at a price tag of about 15 million yen ( $141,300 ) , in the three months since it began offering them.

    Though few might buy a miniature potted pine tree or a statue of Buddha -- both of which cost several times the market value of their weight in gold -- as an investment, Ikeda said gold coins and bars continue to sell well.

    Other Japanese bullion houses and industry officials also testify to private investors' appetite for gold, which many expect to intensify this year.

    INVESTMENT TOOL

    Against the background of worries over Japan's economy and sagging real estate values, the idea of buying gold as an investment tool has taken root, industry officials say.

    They say buying this year will be fuelled by the planned end of a full state guarantee on bank deposits in April 2005.

    They point to a precedent. Gold buying skyrocketed in the January-March quarter of 2002, just before the government ended state guarantees on term deposits in April of that year.
    Buying of gold bars and coins by Japanese in that quarter alone amounted to 45 tonnes, or almost 46 percent of the total bought in 2002, data from the World Gold Council ( WGC ) showed.

    WGC regional director Itsuo Toshima sees purchases of gold bars and coins gaining momentum in the latter half of this year.

    "I believe the market will become nervous as the date ( of the end to state guarantees ) approaches, leading to a significant shift in funds to gold in the latter half of this year," he said.

    "There will be what you could call a flight to quality."

    Sales petered out in 2002 after ballooning in the first quarter, Toshima said. But purchases of gold coins and bars were likely to be brisk for a longer period this year, he said.

    This year's purchases of gold coins and bars are seen possibly larger than the 98.1 tonnes reported for 2002.

    Spot gold futures rose to a 15-year peak of $430.50 an ounce this week, as a weak dollar prompted investors to move to alternative currencies and precious metals.

    The yellow metal, also favoured as a safe haven due to continuing concerns about geopolitical instability and terror attacks, rose 20 percent in value in 2003.

    Many in the market believe gold will move higher this year.

    "If the U.S. dollar's weakness continues, the price of gold will go up more," Tanaka Kikinzoku's Ikeda said, predicting it could hit $450 an ounce in the first half.


    They say buying this year will be fuelled by the planned end of a full state guarantee on bank deposits in April 2005.

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