+++OLD THREAD+++Oreville officially declares that the boom has begun for the coin hobby in January 2

oreville

Prices appear to be at about 10-15% stronger than just that of two months ago based on my observations.

I would now officially declare that we have officially begun a BOOM period in coins. True, some areas are weak but the other areas are simply performing the shock and awe stuff.

I have not stated until today that we hit the boom cycle. So when I say we are now in a boom cycle, it is for real. I don't sell coins as a dealer so I have no vested interested in saying it like it is.

Better not bargain too hard with the dealers on the really nice coins!

Cam40

It seems to have cooled abit since the year 2000 in my view.
Cooled in respect to the collector activity at shows and on online forums.
Prices may be continueing to rise but i,m not real sure there are MORE buyers
today than there was in 2000 and 2001. 9/11 hurt the hobby along with everything else
in the country so thats one major bump in the road for us.
And with the lackluster designs of SQs people dont seem to be that thrilled
with the hobby like they were early on in the SQ program.
MAYBE with the new commem Jeffs about to come out this will be a much-needed
shot in the arm for the hobby but with the not-so-great design that will be the first
to come out I,m not THAT optimistic about it all.
It, the hobby, just seems to be plodding along and not really takeing off
like it had at the begining of the new century.

Despite saying all this I am confident the hobby WILL continue to grow
and be WORTH being into for the long haul.

coppercoins

It depends completely on what you buy and sell....just as always. Some areas are doing very well, others are not doing so well. Almost everything is increasing a little, which is not all that unusual.

oreville

Cam40: I only wished you were right. The number of foreign buyers of US coins have recently soared and it would shock you how much the push for US coins is coming from abroad. Keep in mind that our coins prices are cheap in Euros, Pound, and Canadian Dollar so they are not paying huge premiums. But foreign persons are clearly worried about our US $1. Commodity prices have lit a fire under this hobby price-wise.

We are beginning to see some investment dollars coming back into the hobby.

This is how booms normally begins.

The collector is starting to lose out on purchases to the investor and new non-collectors unless they step up to the plate NOW because they will miss out on the early part of this boom and then have to wait until prices recede 2-4 years from now.

When I speak of boom it is not necessarily a good thing for the coin buyer like myself who prefers a more calm and orderly coin market.

Don't be surprised to see 50% price increase this year overall. That will force me out after this year.

Prices on even the most basal of our US coins, the wheatie cent is skyrocketing percentage wise already.

relayer

if you speak his name, he will come

tradedollarnut

Top end coins - those that are attractive to foreign collectors and/or investors who are inclined and capable of investing in foreign funds - have and will be increasing dramatically. I agree with Oreville.

Wondrous coins are going to be entering the market - coins that haven't been seen for over a decade. Rising prices are coaxing the coins out of strong hands where they've been held since the end of the last boom. Opportunity is many times more important than price. Opportunity is upon us.......

Cam40

The foreign speculator that thinks the rise in metal prices is absolutly tied to the coin market
and that US coins are A GREAT investment will probably and sadly wake up and smell the coffee
soon and realize what many of us here already know.
Coins as an investment (short term) is a LOUSY investment and they,re al gonna lose
their colloctive shirts.
Then the market will have to readjust to this and then its back to square one.

Damn i,m a big neg guy huh.

oreville

Booms do usually end up in a crash and burn cycle with coins. That is why I am not a big fan of booms. We will ultimately pay for this boom.

I was hoping the boom was going to hold off longer which would have been great for our hobby but it so rarely stays away when the coin market heats up.

But if you are a collector, use the boom to seek out those coins that have eluded you and hope that you don't pay too dearly for that special coins and ride out both the boom and then crash and burn cycle (where prices still end up somewhat higher then they are now).

Coppernicus

Orevile - In my area of interest/semi-expertise (Lincoln wheats), the "boom" began at least 12 months ago. The prices on the low pop, MS RD pieces are running away from me! Makes me think about selling some of mine that I bought 2+ years ago and then wait for the bubble to burst.

I cannot opine on other series since I don't follow them.

Mike

darktone

The prices in the areas I buy in have been moving up pretty fast since about September but the last couple of weeks it really seems to be moving. mike

Placid

Who is this Oreville?

BAJJERFAN

Dunno, but I hope he is Wright.

JoyofCollecting

<< <i>The prices in the areas I buy in have been moving up pretty fast since about September but the last couple of weeks it really seems to be moving. mike >>




Exactly the same for the nicer seated dimes.

razorface1027

Who is this Oreville?

A gentleman, that possesses specimens "Far beyond those of mortal men."...

darktone

<< <i>A gentleman, that possesses specimens "Far beyond those of mortal men."... >>

Maybe if were real nice we can see that MS67 $20 liberty again! mike

nwcs

Good thing I'm selling just about every valuable coin I have and concentrating on the 50 cent to $10 per coin items. Make money on selling, save on buying, wait till market dips, and buy better.

razorface1027

Good thing I'm selling just about every valuable coin I have and concentrating on the 50 cent to $10 per coin items. Make money on selling, save on buying, wait till market dips, and buy better

Since a high majority of folk about this forum possess a dergree of knowledge that far surpasses mine, can someone give me a little insight as to how the market will be regarding my munckins' futures? I collect for them. Also, to screw around in a hobby that has intrigued me for years. Will the value of my trivial collection be strong in the event I "Kick the bucket," let's say 10 years down the line; wherein, they can benefit from the sale of this trivial collection?....Opinions are appreciated!...

oreville

When you have admittedly strange and crazy posts from a poster called ocstockpicker looking for Palladium coins, you have to know that the investor is just beginning to return to this hobby. Not in large numbers yet as this is still a collector driven cycle but the early wave of investors have landed.

Boom

<< <i>if you speak his name, he will come >>



How prophetic..You called? I am here!

DrWho

it might also be termed a: bubble.

one of the symptoms of the 'bubble', is irrational buying. read:

Dotcons : Con games, Fraud & Deceit on the Internet by James T. Thomes (Author) (Paperback)

you'd be surprised on how the current coin 'market' fits the bubble 'diagnostics'. just like the internet bubble, when it pops, large losses are realized. would be a good time to pick up coins at better pricing. too bad its going to take a 'while'.

oreville

DrWho: It will take a while for the boom to develop into a bubble. It may or may not happen depending on whether external or internal can cool down the coin market just enough. If the boom stays too strong too long then the bubble will be there indeed.

The internet/dotcom bubble saw price increases as evidenced in the NASDAQ from 500 to 5000, then a collapse back to 1500 a drop of around 70%. We have seen this in coins as well, too often but prices never go lower than the beginning of the cycle. In NASDAQ's case, the "boom" began, I believe when the NASDAQ hit 1000 and fell back to 1500 at the end of the bust.

Coins are probably at around the 1000 relatively speaking to the NASDAQ. It has a ways to go before irrational buying sets in.

When does that bubble become evident? When collectors throw up their hands and pull back completely and investors take over. We are at least 2 years away from that.

I see that the 1856 FE cent in MS-66 just sold for $172,000. That is a boom price. Investor or collector at that price?

mgoodm3

Hope it doesn't take too long to pop the "bubble". I prefer lower prices.

oreville

Keep in mind that the end of a boom usually sees prices around 50% higher than the beginning of a boom. So cheaper prices are not in the cards. You need to see at least one big year of "boom" before the "future" holds cheaper prices than the current "prices."

Some say the boom began a year ago. Indeed the market was very warm. But it was still too much of a rotating areas of strength and weaknesses which is great for the hobby. Now most areas are bullish which just a few overlooked areas. When too many sectors of the coin hobby move in tandem with each other then that is the signal I look for.

Our biggest hope is that gold and silver drops back down significantly and the US $1 regains its strength with some significant interest rate rise. That will cool down our hobby just enough to sustain a "warm fuzzy and active" market for many years to come.

DrWho

Agree. Irrational buying might be a signal of boom to bubble. Much like the olde tulip scandal, folks were buying tulip bulbs, driving up the price, for investment. The end-User, the guy who planted them, bought them to.....be like the others buying them. For the dotcon bubble, take RedHat Linux. The hype had this going to $400/share at IPO. You only bought this for short term profit taking. Long term, how could one justify the earnings from a product in the Public domain? The business model can not support that earnings/share price. IMHO.

toothpuller

Just watched the MS IHCs and they went pretty weak. The Richard Collection #3 in the Registry was available and many of the keys [72, 77 etc ] probably didn't hit the reserve. A few of the 66s were bid up, but in general prices seemed soft.

KollectorKing

Go CC Morgans

Coin Finder

Bajjerfan that was a crack up!!

Thanks!

1jester

"Damn i,m a big neg guy huh." --Cam40

Yeah, dude, don't be such a buzz-kill!!!

dollardude

<< The collector is starting to lose out on purchases to the investor and new non-collectors unless they step up to the plate NOW because they will miss out on the early part of this boom and then have to wait until prices recede 2-4 years from now. >>

As everyone knows, I'm a collector. I agree we are in a boom, and have been for at least a year already. I also agree with the above statement. I am completing my Morgan PCGS registry set. I got 90% of the way through fairly easily. I've noticed that my final 10% is considerably more difficult in finding quality pieces, more expensive, and is taking me more time than I expected to complete. Sometimes I wish those darned investors would stay the heck out of the market, as they are just making things more difficult for us collectors. Thanks for giving me a place for my frustration!

perro

If you have some coins that you are waiting for the right time to sell (Helvitia Swiss Francs Gold-BU & PCGS graded MS64 1908 "no motto's" $20 gold piece--I think I have 11 of the Gaudens & 112 of the Francs, some Misc. Gold, and a bunch of silver Binion Peace dollars). I much more knowledgeable in the stock market than with coins and you always want to sell early rather than squeeze it out and lose big time. What think ye?

cladking

The dollar is still higher than it was in the early '90's though barely. It is not going
to cease its fall anytime soon and is likely to accelerate slightly.

Coin booms in the past few generations have been followed by crashes primarily be-
cause they were fueled by speculation among collectors. Since there was a static
number of collectors a market had to crash when the participants rotated out of it.
This boom is being caused by a dramatically increasing number of collectors. We will
probably retain significantly more of these collectors than there are at the current
time so a crash at the end of the boom is not a foregone conclusion. Sure, there will
be speculators who jump aboard looking for easy profits who will push prices up beyond
their true demand, but this won't necessarily happen. If it does it will be marked by
prices which are multiples of current ones.

The hobby and market will be in a state of extreme flux for a decade, and prices will
rise.

dollardude

<< If you have some coins that you are waiting for the right time to sell (Helvitia Swiss Francs Gold-BU & PCGS graded MS64 1908 "no motto's" $20 gold piece--I think I have 11 of the Gaudens & 112 of the Francs, some Misc. Gold, and a bunch of silver Binion Peace dollars). I much more knowledgeable in the stock market than with coins and you always want to sell early rather than squeeze it out and lose big time. What think ye? >>

IMO, I'd hold on for a little while longer. I think you're likely to see additional short-term gains. As long-term investments, both rare coins and precious metals have horrible track records. But, if you're already in the soup, you might as well let it simmer a bit more before cashing out and buying good growth-stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate. This is from a collector's perspective, and not everyone will agree with me.

poptopsRus

I agree, things are hot. 3 months ago I thought the market had flattened out but come late December it kicked in again and you can't keep good coins in stock.

oreville

ttt

You guys and gals are living through this boom for 5 1/2 months now.

Scary, huh? Booms are not all peaches and cream!

DeepCoin

I would suggest there are at a minimum 3 different coin markets, depending upon the value of the coin. The middle range is somewhere around $200 to $1000/1500 and the other ranges are above and below. For example, Tradedollarnut collects in a whole different world than I do, as I tend to buy coins a tad more expensive than some younger collectors who are on a strict limited budget.

We are all experiencing the boom to a degree, but IMHO the more zeros on your average purchase, the more the boom is affecting your desire to buy or sell.

JrGMan2004

Good point from Deepcoin... Most I've spent thus far on a coin was $65... though I'm buying another for $125, just gotta get the money together for it...

razorface1027

Scary, huh? Booms are not all peaches and cream!

...and to think, I was forced to SELL.

MacCrimmon

Coming out of the woodwork???

Where is the Zimmerman Wreath Cent?

I predict it will be the first $1 million plus copper........PCGS MS68RD........TOTAL FREAK COIN!!

Will Laura step to the plate to make history?

The Oracle of Scotland has spoken.

GalaxyOfCoins

Deepcoin/JrGMan, I do not agree.
Most I have ever spent is less than $45 on each coin or roll. However, each roll has tripled or more in price in the last few years.

tjkillian

<< <i>Coming out of the woodwork??? Where is the Zimmerman Wreath Cent?........PCGS MS68RD........TOTAL FREAK COIN!! . >>



Does anyone have a picture of this coin? I would love to see it, if it really exists.

Tom

LAWMAN

Too much moon money (stupid money, according to some - but, hey, it's your money and you can spend it any way you want and far be it from me to insult you -- I don't always spend mine wisely either) being thrown around. I have periodicals and catalogs from the 80/81 crash and the 89/91 crash (which, some would say, we are only just coming out of).

It's beginning to look the same way.

Do't fret, amigos. There will be mondo buying opportunities when prices start their inveitable downward slide.

roadrunner

Most MS and PF type coinage, better date Morgans and Peace dollars, classic commems, nickel coinage, 3c silvers, etc. have hardly touched the surface as far as price increases go. These are starting to move into the next wave. Serious/new investor money tends to gravitate to rare date/type gold and rare date/type silver. The fact that these areas haven't been affected much indicates that what Oreville is saying is correct. But the speculators are arriving now.
The collectors and dealers drove up the prices in the registry sets.
Watch as the dealers start to push up 18th and 19th century type.

It's anyone's guess how long this lasts. Economic circumstances have never quite been like this, that is the majority of Americans are debt leveraged to the hilt with little savings. The affect on $200 TRILLION in mostly interest rate related derivatives is not understood yet. This market didn't exist like this in 1990 nor in 1980.

roadrunner

Bear

Laura will not only step up to the plate. she will take the bat to the pitcher,

the catcher and the umpire.

coingame2000

Hi Abe,

Although our sales were awesome -- Long Beach was the WORST buying show I've been to in years. The only thing of significance I brought back with me was a bad cold -- that's why I haven't returned any calls yet. If I feel better tomorrow I'll give you a buzz.

Mikey

Tonekiller

I agree with mike. Great Long Beach as far as sales but nothing to buy.

jbsteven

<< <i>The only thing of significance I brought back with me was a bad cold >>



I talked to Mike for a little while a couple of times at the show and can say I got to bring home some good old fashioned coin stories from the 70's.

thanks Mike.


I bought a few cool coins at the show. Some of them sold at the show also!

ms700

Any updates?

oreville

One year has passed. So how is my January 2004 commentary looking at this point?

Boom

You have had and continue to have my utmost respect Oh, sagacious one!

ER

When is it going to be over, master?

oreville

Hey, I didn't say I was an expert in predicting. I merely observed the scene in January 2004 and it looked like that old classic collector's boom. i merely reported what I saw.

Now as far as predicting the future, that is anyone's guess! I took a stab at it in another thread and though it might take a breather/correction in the summer or 2005. But it easily could be 2006, 2007.

But when it happens, I will hopefully be one of the first to report what i see.

As I said before, we all seem to wish for boomtimes but then when it happens the inconveniences of paying more for coins among other negatives are equally annoying.