My 6 month Set Registry Analysis
Virtualizard
Posts: 1,936 ✭✭
The question was brought up in this thread about the 1975 set:
<< <i>...Any thoughts on what might be the next most popular baseball set ?? >>
I had wondered that myself, so back in July, I started following updates to a select group of Baseball sets on the Registry. Each week (usually Saturday), I check the number of updated Current Finest sets. I believe this provides a better analysis of what sets are the most collected than the total number of sets registered because of all the sets at the bottom of the list with 1 or 2 cards that will never be updated. It obviously leaves out the 100% complete sets that aren't being updated, but it does provide insight into the current market for each set (and in some cases, probably the availability of cards).
I think there are some interesting results and I'll leave any more discussion about them up to you guys.
JEB.
<< <i>...Any thoughts on what might be the next most popular baseball set ?? >>
I had wondered that myself, so back in July, I started following updates to a select group of Baseball sets on the Registry. Each week (usually Saturday), I check the number of updated Current Finest sets. I believe this provides a better analysis of what sets are the most collected than the total number of sets registered because of all the sets at the bottom of the list with 1 or 2 cards that will never be updated. It obviously leaves out the 100% complete sets that aren't being updated, but it does provide insight into the current market for each set (and in some cases, probably the availability of cards).
I think there are some interesting results and I'll leave any more discussion about them up to you guys.
JEB.
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Comments
What does this mean to you. I look at it and say the sets at the bottom are less competitive and now may be the time to buy. The market may be bringing below smr on these. I look at the top and think it may get dicey there with the low pops. Let me know if I am reading this correct. By the way thanks for the data it could prove to save some collectors money. I an getting down to a few cards in my 65 and 75 sets and was looking to start two more this year. I believe I may choose 64 and 66
Dave
Dave - If you decide to go 66' I would be interested in all your mistakes :-) I am building that set in mostly PSA 7 grade. You can find me on the registry.
RayB69Topps
I think it's safe to say that you won't have as much competition with sets at the bottom of the list, at least with commons. Now might be a good time to start them. Remember, it only takes 1 or 2 other collectors to make it as tough to get a card as a set with 15 collectors going after the cards. At least it will take less time to get any given card with only a few others needing it.
JEB.
I recall the #1 set ('68) and #3 set ('61) have had plenty of cards graded. The prices are soft on both of these, generally speaking.
I do wonder if some guys share my lazy method of putting off updates until they reach a certain volume or cut-off ??
No need to enter a few cards, wait until at least five, six, or more are new or upgrades. Wait until ALL auctions are finaly shipped and in hand before updating the registry. Wait for a bid war type of deal to complete before entering cards. I know of one instance where I sold a 10 to a registry participant about six months ago, and he still has not upgraded his corresponding nine ??? I think most of us might agree that the data entry for an upate to the registry is not a very greatly looked forward to event.
My point is really that updates do not ALWAYS indicate set activity/popularity. Is my set more active if I enter three groups every two weeks, or if I enter a larger total combined group every two months ?
In agreement with a prior note about supply, I am willing to suggest that there will be much more "activity" in Feb. thru about April on the 1975 set rather than the 1968 one, due to the current PSA grading special, this factor does not, in itself, make the 75 set more popular or active.
JEB,
You stated that you check on the updates once a week.How are you coming up with the total updated numbers for the week? I think that when I update my sets,the update notation does not stay up for a week.If there is a page or search that lets you see that data,I would be interested in that information. This update is greatly appreciated and helps immensly.I would have to agree with Dave and Ray for the most part,although with the 53 Bowman B&W,that set might not have many updates due to the dollar requirements to build the set.Also,one must factor the cost of the older sets vs the newer sets as far as participants in building those sets.Financially,the older vintage sets should have less people trying to put them together.Lastly,you must factor in collectors that throw a new set into the mix at a high % completion rate.You might want to track how many new sets hit the registry.I continually see graded cards bought on e-bay that are not registered for quite a while.
Vic
Chris
• I never said this was a 100% accurate or reliable tool to measure any specific trends in set registry activity. It is basically a "snapshot" of each set at one given moment each week, which I keep the same (Saturday) to make it a little more valid. Take what you will from it, I just thought it provided some insight into what sets were actively collected the most/least.
• The
• As for people holding off on updating their sets until they accumulate cards, I have not noticed too much of this. It appears that the regulars in each set update frequently, many of them are updated every single week. This leads to another problem that has not been mentioned - deleting a card, adding a scan, adding comments, or changing the name of the set will also cause that set to be shown as "updated". There is no way to determine what has been updated without going through every individual card in every set each week. If someone would like to volunteer for that service, I'd be happy to include the data.
• I agree that it will be interesting to see what happens with the 1975 set (as well as the rest of the 1972 and up sets) with the current special. I'll post results again in a few months.
OK, I hope that answered some questions and made you think of a few more.
JEB.
Chris
Jeb,
Thanks for the reply.I was not trying to step on your toes if that is the way I came across.I really do appreciate the information.I was not sure if the update tag stayed on for a week.I should have known better than to question one that does research as throughly as you do.My mistake!!
You have made me think!!I think that I will not be questioning your analysis anymore
Thanks Again,
Vic
That is not the way you came across at all. I just wanted to correct you and point out that the tags do stay there for a week.
But, you are right on one point, you never should question me!
JEB.
JEB,
Vic