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Predictions for 2004
koby
Posts: 1,699 ✭✭
Happy new year everyone! 2003 was an interesting year for the world and an interesting year for the hobby. No doubt, 2004 will be equally eventful....elections, olympics, security alerts, etc. There will be changes in the hobby as well, some good and some bad. Here are some of my predictions for the upcoming year:
MORE NON-SPORT INSERTS
In the latter part of 2003, we saw a number of presidential autograph cut cards sell for extraordinary amounts. It turned out that some of these bids were not legitimate but nevertheless, these cards created more excitement in the hobby than any one of one Lebron James card.
If we have learned one thing about card companies over the years, it is that when a product is successful, they will keep flooding the market with similar products until there is no longer any interest. This was done with parallel inserts, refractors, game used, limited edition, autograph cards, etc. Initially they were novel and intriguing, but when there are a hundred different variations, collectors will lost interest and values will drop.
This has not yet happened with the President autographs, so card companies will make sure it does. There will be no less than a dozen products with President autographs inserted in baseball card products.
CONSUMER PROTECTION
Currently, there are over fifty different grading companies. Most of these companies are not even worth mentioning as they grade reprint cards, counterfeits, altered cards, trimmed cards, and newspaper clippings that are not even cards. In 2004 ebay will play a larger role in protecting consumers.
We saw an example of this in 2003 when ebay banned cards in FGA holders after FGA encapsulated a number of fake bazooka cards. I predict in 2004 ebay will do this with other dubious grading companies as well.
CONSOLIDATION OF GRADING COMPANIES
At the beginning of the year, PSA had a large lead over its competitors as far as the number of cards encapsulated. Now PSA has increased its lead and the other grading comanies are having difficulty staying afloat. PSA's marketshare dominance is evident in the number of ebay auctions with PSA encapsulated cards versus cards in other companies' holders.
Already SCDA which was backed by a strong Krause publications, decided that it could no longer compete with PSA. Instead SCDA will concentrate on publishing and other ventures. Other grading companies will follow.
Beckett has captured some of the business for newer cards, but consumer are unhappy with the numerous brands and numerous standards and this has caused a backlash. PSA has never waivered; one holder, one standard, one grading system and modern card collectors are returning to PSA.
As far as old cards, PSA continues to own this segment of the hobby with no legitimate challengers. Beckett is irrelevant and only SGC and GAI are even attempting to capture some of PSA's market share. The main problem for both of these companies is that they are fighting for the same business.....the very minute population of collector who wish to be different for the sake of being different. GAI and SGC unfortunately are both learning that this niche market is just too small. Last year, there were rumors that GAI was ready to buy out SGC. SGC collectors at the time were elated only to have their hopes dashed when GAI decided the merger was not worthwhile. This year one of these companies will fold.
My prediction is that by the end of 2004, there will only be three legititmate companies standing: PSA, Beckett, and perhaps GAI.
MORE NON-SPORT INSERTS
In the latter part of 2003, we saw a number of presidential autograph cut cards sell for extraordinary amounts. It turned out that some of these bids were not legitimate but nevertheless, these cards created more excitement in the hobby than any one of one Lebron James card.
If we have learned one thing about card companies over the years, it is that when a product is successful, they will keep flooding the market with similar products until there is no longer any interest. This was done with parallel inserts, refractors, game used, limited edition, autograph cards, etc. Initially they were novel and intriguing, but when there are a hundred different variations, collectors will lost interest and values will drop.
This has not yet happened with the President autographs, so card companies will make sure it does. There will be no less than a dozen products with President autographs inserted in baseball card products.
CONSUMER PROTECTION
Currently, there are over fifty different grading companies. Most of these companies are not even worth mentioning as they grade reprint cards, counterfeits, altered cards, trimmed cards, and newspaper clippings that are not even cards. In 2004 ebay will play a larger role in protecting consumers.
We saw an example of this in 2003 when ebay banned cards in FGA holders after FGA encapsulated a number of fake bazooka cards. I predict in 2004 ebay will do this with other dubious grading companies as well.
CONSOLIDATION OF GRADING COMPANIES
At the beginning of the year, PSA had a large lead over its competitors as far as the number of cards encapsulated. Now PSA has increased its lead and the other grading comanies are having difficulty staying afloat. PSA's marketshare dominance is evident in the number of ebay auctions with PSA encapsulated cards versus cards in other companies' holders.
Already SCDA which was backed by a strong Krause publications, decided that it could no longer compete with PSA. Instead SCDA will concentrate on publishing and other ventures. Other grading companies will follow.
Beckett has captured some of the business for newer cards, but consumer are unhappy with the numerous brands and numerous standards and this has caused a backlash. PSA has never waivered; one holder, one standard, one grading system and modern card collectors are returning to PSA.
As far as old cards, PSA continues to own this segment of the hobby with no legitimate challengers. Beckett is irrelevant and only SGC and GAI are even attempting to capture some of PSA's market share. The main problem for both of these companies is that they are fighting for the same business.....the very minute population of collector who wish to be different for the sake of being different. GAI and SGC unfortunately are both learning that this niche market is just too small. Last year, there were rumors that GAI was ready to buy out SGC. SGC collectors at the time were elated only to have their hopes dashed when GAI decided the merger was not worthwhile. This year one of these companies will fold.
My prediction is that by the end of 2004, there will only be three legititmate companies standing: PSA, Beckett, and perhaps GAI.
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Comments
I predict a worldwide pandemic for.....say....the year 2020. I also predict that said pandemic will spur on hobby growth unlike anything we've ever seen!
I wonder what 2021 will bring?
Shane
Seventeen years and this post finally gets a response. Make that two. What am I missing?
His prediction about GAI was slightly off. SGC is still a powerhouse in prewar.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.