@West22 said:
I’m not too worried about demographics as far as its effect on whether card values rise over time by attracting new participants. I would classify sports cards as an “alternative asset” with cultural appeal, similar to art. They will always be investible even if the market shrinks a bit as participants die off. I’d be more worried about something like say, the fact that the MLB has the greatest athlete on the planet right now Shohei Ohtani, and barely anyone outside of baseball knows or appreciates him. That is a massive failure on MLB’s part to market the greatest talent of this generation. He should be as big as MJ. It’s kind of sad how bad they are at this.
You don't think Shohei is getting enough exposure? LOL
Don't tell the Japanese that nobody knows or appreciates him.
Besides, MLB is doing their part when they implemented the 'no-shift' rule for Shohei. Just like the NBA had the 'Jordan rules', turning an already great player into an icon. Sports Illustrated showed Shohei as the biggest benefactor of the new rule.
We're only 5 years into his career and he should be in his prime. If he can keep pace and win a few more MVPs. It took 7 years for MJ to win his first championship. Maybe if Shohei's team can win a World Series or 2 or 3, then we can compare and talk GOAT. Wasn't it just a few years ago Trout was considered the greatest talent of this generation?
So much has changed significantly and fundamentally with card collecting over the last 30+ years that I think card collecting as many of us knew it will eventually die off.
When I started in the late 70s, cards were in all the small grocery stores. It seemed like a lot of kids in my neighborhood collected, as did many at school. They were not valuable or cherished as future holdings, at least not to kids buying packs in 1978. Others were already picking up on the old and rare stuff that was going up in demand and price, but kids were clueless. It was something fun to do.
This was slowly building into the late 80s/early 90s when it just exploded. Hobby magazines on national news stands, TV exposure...everyone was collecting something then and most figured they were going to get rich. The market corrected and sent a lot of people packing.
The 90s insert trend took cards into a direction that it won't be able to come back from in my opinion. It became a way for kids to legally gamble. Packs were still relatively affordable for the youth, but that was changing too as the potential lottery value increased, so did pack prices. I realized that it was a fools game by the late 90s and stopped buying packs myself after 20 years. They were too expensive to just be something fun and if you didn't beat the odds, you felt cheated when all you had left was a pile of worthless junk nobody wanted or everyone already had.
Collecting online was growing, but the kids were being outnumbered by adults with disposable income, many who were blinded by the thrill of the gamble. Kids were still in the game, but shrinking, as they couldn't afford to play the way a kid in 1978 could. Covid brought a lot of 80s/90s collectors back into the fold and they had money and nothing to do, spiking prices and making everyone think that cards were a sure thing again. Record auctions on super high end stuff helps fuel the frenzy, but most figure out that their old collections are overproduced crap and the stuff that is good is now too expensive to buy. Covid ends, people go back to their lives, have other stuff to buy and cards start to soften again.
In the end the cost of entry, lack of interest in kids (neither of my 2 boys had interest despite playing sports and my best efforts to get them into cards + they don't seem to want to own anything in general, do hoarding pack rats still exist today?) and the older collectors aging and dying at a greater quantity than new blood into the game, leaves me thinking who will be left to buy all the cards the oldies hoarded if we can't keep kids coming into the hobby?
Its extreme, but there is some truth to it all. I'm sure there will always be people interested in collecting cards, but could it be a dying hobby. I think it could be. I plan on getting out before I regret holding my stuff too long with nobody to will it to upon my death. I just hope i don't wait too long...because i still love this stuff!
I collect Steve Garvey, Dodgers and signed cards. Collector since 1978.
@West22 said:
I’ve been trying to focus on low pop stuff that has decent reach in the market. As an error collector for years I’m all too familiar with the problem of something being too rare - if I have the only one and no one else knows about it then there is little to no market. When you hit that sweet spot of low circulating supply and strong demand you know you have something that will outperform most assets going forward.
Just based on what I’ve been watching recently, I’ve been surprised at the relative ease with which you can find a box of 1980-‘84 Topps BB, 1987 OPC BB, 1993 SP BB and ‘93-‘94 Finest basketball. There’s at least 5-10 of each of them on eBay at this moment. That makes me think prices on these will continue to flatline for a bit before making their way back up sometime next year.
In another category altogether, there is a glut of stuff like 1990 leaf, 1989 UD baseball and 1990s Fleer bkb on eBay right now. Prices on these should drop for some time while supply is redistributed, then I see a period of underwhelming growth that generally mirrors inflation.
With singles, for investment purposes I would stick to high quality names with staying power (Jeter/Griffey/Jordan etc) or niche markets you know well. It’s a buyers market so a lot of cheap stuff is being moved at bargain prices if you’re patient.
I totally agree with the "too rare" to generate demand logic you mentioned. A few collectors on here that I have interacted with collect rarer lesser known non-big name manufacturer cards from about the 70's to the 90's and made ourselves aware of what was out there via searching catalogues, TCDB, beckett online searches, PSA pop report, etc. and have some rare ecletic items, some of which your jaw would drop as to what low amounts we paid for them compared to what they list for now and others that remain criminally low value, but to us are priceless because they rarely come up for sale in any condition. I find it interesting that the item with a total pop of like 6 or less will usually not generate demand. but the item with say a 25-200 total graded pop usually will.
@mrmopar said:
So much has changed significantly and fundamentally with card collecting over the last 30+ years that I think card collecting as many of us knew it will eventually die off.
When I started in the late 70s, cards were in all the small grocery stores. It seemed like a lot of kids in my neighborhood collected, as did many at school. They were not valuable or cherished as future holdings, at least not to kids buying packs in 1978. Others were already picking up on the old and rare stuff that was going up in demand and price, but kids were clueless. It was something fun to do.
This was slowly building into the late 80s/early 90s when it just exploded. Hobby magazines on national news stands, TV exposure...everyone was collecting something then and most figured they were going to get rich. The market corrected and sent a lot of people packing.
The 90s insert trend took cards into a direction that it won't be able to come back from in my opinion. It became a way for kids to legally gamble. Packs were still relatively affordable for the youth, but that was changing too as the potential lottery value increased, so did pack prices. I realized that it was a fools game by the late 90s and stopped buying packs myself after 20 years. They were too expensive to just be something fun and if you didn't beat the odds, you felt cheated when all you had left was a pile of worthless junk nobody wanted or everyone already had.
Collecting online was growing, but the kids were being outnumbered by adults with disposable income, many who were blinded by the thrill of the gamble. Kids were still in the game, but shrinking, as they couldn't afford to play the way a kid in 1978 could. Covid brought a lot of 80s/90s collectors back into the fold and they had money and nothing to do, spiking prices and making everyone think that cards were a sure thing again. Record auctions on super high end stuff helps fuel the frenzy, but most figure out that their old collections are overproduced crap and the stuff that is good is now too expensive to buy. Covid ends, people go back to their lives, have other stuff to buy and cards start to soften again.
In the end the cost of entry, lack of interest in kids (neither of my 2 boys had interest despite playing sports and my best efforts to get them into cards + they don't seem to want to own anything in general, do hoarding pack rats still exist today?) and the older collectors aging and dying at a greater quantity than new blood into the game, leaves me thinking who will be left to buy all the cards the oldies hoarded if we can't keep kids coming into the hobby?
Its extreme, but there is some truth to it all. I'm sure there will always be people interested in collecting cards, but could it be a dying hobby. I think it could be. I plan on getting out before I regret holding my stuff too long with nobody to will it to upon my death. I just hope i don't wait too long...because i still love this stuff!
Enjoyed reading this.
I think war collectors will collect anything WWII back to the Civil War.
Even back to the revolutionary war.
I think Sports collectors in the year 2100 will go back to the 1900’s also.
Collecting is in our genes from generation to generation.
Anyway, I hope to leave my cards to my sons.
Forum members on ignore
Erba - coolstanley-dallasactuary-SDsportsfan
daltex
@mrmopar said:
So much has changed significantly and fundamentally with card collecting over the last 30+ years that I think card collecting as many of us knew it will eventually die off.
When I started in the late 70s, cards were in all the small grocery stores. It seemed like a lot of kids in my neighborhood collected, as did many at school. They were not valuable or cherished as future holdings, at least not to kids buying packs in 1978. Others were already picking up on the old and rare stuff that was going up in demand and price, but kids were clueless. It was something fun to do.
This was slowly building into the late 80s/early 90s when it just exploded. Hobby magazines on national news stands, TV exposure...everyone was collecting something then and most figured they were going to get rich. The market corrected and sent a lot of people packing.
The 90s insert trend took cards into a direction that it won't be able to come back from in my opinion. It became a way for kids to legally gamble. Packs were still relatively affordable for the youth, but that was changing too as the potential lottery value increased, so did pack prices. I realized that it was a fools game by the late 90s and stopped buying packs myself after 20 years. They were too expensive to just be something fun and if you didn't beat the odds, you felt cheated when all you had left was a pile of worthless junk nobody wanted or everyone already had.
Collecting online was growing, but the kids were being outnumbered by adults with disposable income, many who were blinded by the thrill of the gamble. Kids were still in the game, but shrinking, as they couldn't afford to play the way a kid in 1978 could. Covid brought a lot of 80s/90s collectors back into the fold and they had money and nothing to do, spiking prices and making everyone think that cards were a sure thing again. Record auctions on super high end stuff helps fuel the frenzy, but most figure out that their old collections are overproduced crap and the stuff that is good is now too expensive to buy. Covid ends, people go back to their lives, have other stuff to buy and cards start to soften again.
In the end the cost of entry, lack of interest in kids (neither of my 2 boys had interest despite playing sports and my best efforts to get them into cards + they don't seem to want to own anything in general, do hoarding pack rats still exist today?) and the older collectors aging and dying at a greater quantity than new blood into the game, leaves me thinking who will be left to buy all the cards the oldies hoarded if we can't keep kids coming into the hobby?
Its extreme, but there is some truth to it all. I'm sure there will always be people interested in collecting cards, but could it be a dying hobby. I think it could be. I plan on getting out before I regret holding my stuff too long with nobody to will it to upon my death. I just hope i don't wait too long...because i still love this stuff!
Well said! This is also my collecting experience. My boys have no interest in cards and I’ll glad they don’t with the gambling aspect of chase cards. Kids going to the National and buying $500-2000 cards is all funded by mom and dad. This is a ridiculous part of the hobby.
Comments
You don't think Shohei is getting enough exposure? LOL
Don't tell the Japanese that nobody knows or appreciates him.
Besides, MLB is doing their part when they implemented the 'no-shift' rule for Shohei. Just like the NBA had the 'Jordan rules', turning an already great player into an icon. Sports Illustrated showed Shohei as the biggest benefactor of the new rule.
We're only 5 years into his career and he should be in his prime. If he can keep pace and win a few more MVPs. It took 7 years for MJ to win his first championship. Maybe if Shohei's team can win a World Series or 2 or 3, then we can compare and talk GOAT. Wasn't it just a few years ago Trout was considered the greatest talent of this generation?
It all changed once they stopped selling bubble gum. But they did start with cigarettes.
So much has changed significantly and fundamentally with card collecting over the last 30+ years that I think card collecting as many of us knew it will eventually die off.
When I started in the late 70s, cards were in all the small grocery stores. It seemed like a lot of kids in my neighborhood collected, as did many at school. They were not valuable or cherished as future holdings, at least not to kids buying packs in 1978. Others were already picking up on the old and rare stuff that was going up in demand and price, but kids were clueless. It was something fun to do.
This was slowly building into the late 80s/early 90s when it just exploded. Hobby magazines on national news stands, TV exposure...everyone was collecting something then and most figured they were going to get rich. The market corrected and sent a lot of people packing.
The 90s insert trend took cards into a direction that it won't be able to come back from in my opinion. It became a way for kids to legally gamble. Packs were still relatively affordable for the youth, but that was changing too as the potential lottery value increased, so did pack prices. I realized that it was a fools game by the late 90s and stopped buying packs myself after 20 years. They were too expensive to just be something fun and if you didn't beat the odds, you felt cheated when all you had left was a pile of worthless junk nobody wanted or everyone already had.
Collecting online was growing, but the kids were being outnumbered by adults with disposable income, many who were blinded by the thrill of the gamble. Kids were still in the game, but shrinking, as they couldn't afford to play the way a kid in 1978 could. Covid brought a lot of 80s/90s collectors back into the fold and they had money and nothing to do, spiking prices and making everyone think that cards were a sure thing again. Record auctions on super high end stuff helps fuel the frenzy, but most figure out that their old collections are overproduced crap and the stuff that is good is now too expensive to buy. Covid ends, people go back to their lives, have other stuff to buy and cards start to soften again.
In the end the cost of entry, lack of interest in kids (neither of my 2 boys had interest despite playing sports and my best efforts to get them into cards + they don't seem to want to own anything in general, do hoarding pack rats still exist today?) and the older collectors aging and dying at a greater quantity than new blood into the game, leaves me thinking who will be left to buy all the cards the oldies hoarded if we can't keep kids coming into the hobby?
Its extreme, but there is some truth to it all. I'm sure there will always be people interested in collecting cards, but could it be a dying hobby. I think it could be. I plan on getting out before I regret holding my stuff too long with nobody to will it to upon my death. I just hope i don't wait too long...because i still love this stuff!
I totally agree with the "too rare" to generate demand logic you mentioned. A few collectors on here that I have interacted with collect rarer lesser known non-big name manufacturer cards from about the 70's to the 90's and made ourselves aware of what was out there via searching catalogues, TCDB, beckett online searches, PSA pop report, etc. and have some rare ecletic items, some of which your jaw would drop as to what low amounts we paid for them compared to what they list for now and others that remain criminally low value, but to us are priceless because they rarely come up for sale in any condition. I find it interesting that the item with a total pop of like 6 or less will usually not generate demand. but the item with say a 25-200 total graded pop usually will.
Enjoyed reading this.
I think war collectors will collect anything WWII back to the Civil War.
Even back to the revolutionary war.
I think Sports collectors in the year 2100 will go back to the 1900’s also.
Collecting is in our genes from generation to generation.
Anyway, I hope to leave my cards to my sons.
Forum members on ignore
Erba - coolstanley-dallasactuary-SDsportsfan
daltex
Well said! This is also my collecting experience. My boys have no interest in cards and I’ll glad they don’t with the gambling aspect of chase cards. Kids going to the National and buying $500-2000 cards is all funded by mom and dad. This is a ridiculous part of the hobby.
Well it's nice to see this thread getting some traction. FINALLY!
Love Mrmopars post.