options are not always better than straight futures contracts (in fact usually not)
depends on price which depends on recent volatility, trend and current
one advantage of options is that if you buy one, you know what your downside loss will be maxed at - if you sell one, you are getting a little premium with alot of risk
I think any wise investor should use a diversification strategy. Dont put all your investing eggs in one (gold) basket. The issue is risk. If gold begins to decline, when do you sell? I can understand supporting your view of the future, but to bet it all on one type of investment is incredibly risky.
As with many who post here, I have credentials in this area. I am not telling you not to buy gold, just councilling that any strategy that puts all your money into one area is unsound.
Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
I would challenge you to interview 5 self-made millionaires. Ask them what they invest in.
I'll take that bet provided we also interview 5 people who lost at least 40% and $100,000 of their retirement. He11 I know 4 off the top of my head..... Anyone heard the "my 401k turned into a 101k" joke?
The guy who used to sit across from me at work had a Financial Advisor who used Growth Stocks to turn $1 million into $500,000. The idiot Advisor had him convinced they would come back........and they will, but John was 63 and ready to retire today, not 20 years from now.
Why do you think gold is "dirt cheap" at $400/oz when there are many mines throughout the world producing at under $200/oz? There is no shortage of gold as anyone who has done any prospecting knows. Mines will continue to increase production as prices rise.
The largest physical buyer of gold in the world, India, has reduced imports into Ahmedabad from 300-400 kg per day to 50 to 60 kg per day. Recent increases in gold prices are speculative and NOT from physical demand. Short term prices will increase from the falling dollar and futures speculation, we could see another 1980 but remember this was very short term. In the long term the small players investing in bullion will lose.
Robert Scot: Engraving Liberty - biography of US Mint's first chief engraver
No! While both are leveraged plays, there are very important differences.
Buying an Option gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy some gold at a certain price. That's a great thing. The bad part is that you a premium to do that, and your option expires at some point. Thus the value of your option generally decays with time and can expire worthless if things don't go your way before expiration.
When you buy a futures contract, someone is selling you a future delivery of gold. There is nothing optional about a futures contract, and its value will fluctuate almost identically in proportion with the current metal price.
In reality, very few futures holders take delivery of the actual metal, instead you would sell your contract at a profit or loss, or roll it over into a new contract if you want to continue your position.
The beauty of a futures contract is the leverage it provides. If you have $100,000 you want to invest in gold, you could control equivalent futures contracts for perhaps $10,000. The remaining $90,000 can stay in the bank earning interest. Or of course you could buy $1,000,000 of gold with your $100,000 if you're a wild horse.
The other huge advantage is the exceptionally low transaction costs compared to physical metal. Through my broker I can buy/sell an electronically traded gold future that represents 33.2 troy oz for only $2.40 each way. Right now FEB 04 Gold futures are bid/ask at 404.80/405.40.
So for example, the total costs on buying/selling 100 oz of gold would be:
Buy 3 YG FEB04 @ 405.40 Sell 3 YG FEB04 @ 404.80 Net loss 0.60 per contract (x 33.2) = 59.76 Commissions 3 x 2.40 each way = 14.40 Total round trip cost: 74.16
So to buy/sell 100 ounces -- that's over $40,000 in gold -- costs you under $75 ROUND-TRIP with a futures contract. And in fact you can reduce that even further buy cutting the buy/sell spread with limit orders.
There is no way physical gold can begin to compare to that in terms of transaction costs or in speed of execution.
If you are trading gold short-term in quantity I think futures are definitely the way to go. The only reason not to is if you are buying gold for an armaggedon scenario. And if that's happening short-term, you might want to think about canned goods instead.
The other big advantage of futures for those who aren't quite so bullish is that they go both ways with equal facility. You can short 100 oz of gold as easily as you can buy it.
<< <i>I'm not anti-bullion but you have to understand what gold is - a commodity. Commodities are ALWAYS traded in the short term. If you tie up large amounts of physical gold or silver for long-term investment (actually holding commodities is "speculation" not investment) purposes you are invariably making a mistake. >>
Gold is both a "commodity" and a "currency". In many parts of the world, gold is still used as the MOST favored currency available. And I think that the US is going to become more like the rest of the world (that's what "globalization" really is after all - lower standards of living in the US and higher standards in developing countries like China).
I agree, though, that gold really isn't an "investment". If you buy it on margin, or with short term goals, then you are speculating. If you just buy gold to save, then it is a hedge (a relatively stable asset that maintains it's purchasing power over the long term).
Putting money into a startup business is true "investing", so long as you have intimate knowledge of the company and it's potential.
I would argue, however, that "investing" in stocks of established companies, that don't pay significant dividends, run by people you don't personally know, is really a foolish "speculation".
Here's an update... Gold FELL today, while the stock market RALLIED. The NASDAQ briefly surpassed the 2000 mark, while the DOW is nearing 10000!
Also, I would NOT borrow money -- especially on your house -- to invest in ANYTHING. PERIOD. Not even in options or contracts. Too risky -- look at what happened in 1929 when the stock market crashed. If anyone insists on investing in gold, PLEASE do so with CASH.
My re-financed house is on an 8 year note, very low simple interest mortgage.
If worse came to worse, I could pay it off easily in 8 years from my salary and still live well. I have job security as well(family business and long-term signed contracts).
My diversification strategy is silver-gold-platinum-a few high end numismatic pieces, in that order. In large purchases, I will be paying a very small premium over spot.
I fully intend to bail in no more than 3-5 years tops and if things go as my studies have indicated, them I'm retired early, happy and growing tomatos somewhere out in the country.
If not, I work 10 more years and still retire early, just not quite as soon nor as financially comfortable.
Sometimes you just have to go with what your gut and intellilect tell you to do. I don't want to be kicking myself 3 years from now, and for the rest of my life, because I didn't act when I could have.
I'm a big boy, I can take my lumps if I have to. But for me this is the ONLY thing I feel I have to do at this time. I didn't get where I am today by being stupid, I'm in no danger of living under a bridge and I'm not risking anything that I can't afford to.
I wish one hundred thousand people would do this same thing today, there isn't enough physical silver and gold available to meet the demand. The house of cards would fold up and bullion would rise 5 to 10 fold in the short term.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Sounds like you have put alot of thought in to this BEST OF LUCK the metal will always be worth something more then can be said about alot of things these days or in the near future
<< <i>Sounds like you have put alot of thought in to this BEST OF LUCK the metal will always be worth something more then can be said about alot of things these days or in the near future >>
Wayneme,
Thanks. Yes I have put alot of study and thought into this move, a lot. A little prayer too.
I couldn't agree more with your opinion about the fact bullion will always have some value as opposed to other investments.
The downside is low, the upside is tremendous. I'll either lose a little, break even or come out looking like a genius. I've decided to take that risk.
It's not a decision that I've rashly rushed into and it wasn't an easy one by any means. But it's a done deal now.
I'm about to take possesion of a nice batch of 1 ounce Pandas and I have placed a buy order for 5,000 ounces of silver.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
you really think this is the end?? gold was like $800 ounce in the late 1970`s i think and america survived. Personally, i`m all for armagedon, I dont want to become old. Gold coins are addictive, thats for sure. I bought a PCGS saint yesterday, and i`m ready to buy another one.This time im gona go for a MS65 I think !!!When i save up enough money ,LOL.
First of all, gold did not go down today it went up. Anyone can look at kitco and see the market. Second, it has climbed above 400 an oz while the stock market has been climbing. That alone is enough to make anyone with an unbiased opinion realize that the gold market is real, not to mention the climb from 243 an oz to over 400 in a year and a half. Dollardude is fighting a rising market with the same tired arguments people used against the rising stock market for years. Well the market did make a correction after seven or eight years of going up. And gold might do so as well. But it has about five and a half years to go. Why does everyone always want to fight a rising market until it is almost ready to go down and then they jump on and buy. Just human nature I guess!
In an insane society, a sane person will appear to be insane.
<< First of all, gold did not go down today it went up. Anyone can look at kitco and see the market. Second, it has climbed above 400 an oz while the stock market has been climbing. That alone is enough to make anyone with an unbiased opinion realize that the gold market is real, not to mention the climb from 243 an oz to over 400 in a year and a half. Dollardude is fighting a rising market with the same tired arguments people used against the rising stock market for years. Well the market did make a correction after seven or eight years of going up. And gold might do so as well. But it has about five and a half years to go. Why does everyone always want to fight a rising market until it is almost ready to go down and then they jump on and buy. Just human nature I guess! >>
I stand corrected. Gold did close slightly up today, after being slightly down. Also, the S&P 500 did close slightly down, after being up.
I'll stick with my basic old-fashioned investment strategy that most financial experts agree with. I still say gold is a horrible investment (or commodity), but, I will repeat my advice. PLEASE INVEST USING CASH ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT BORROW TO INVEST IN ANYTHING!!!!!
For all you Christians out there, the bible ONLY mentions debt as a CURSE. It never mentions debt as a blessing. Read it if you don't believe me!
<< <i>I need some advice. If I mortgage my house and buy, say, $100,000 of gold and silver, where do I keep it?
A bank safe box would be OK, but will banks be open if our electronic securities system is down? >>
I am fortunate in that I have a bank vault that I have access to and the cost is next to nothing. This won't apply in most people's cases.
I don't think this is Armageddon, not even close. I do believe that after next year's presidential election we will see further weakening of the dollar, I actually see major weakening.
I also see inflation and perhaps a deflation/devaluation in real estate, a correction might be a better description. I'm not looking at a depression, nothing like that at all.
I do see war in our future, I see a resumption of the draft and a long series of wars all over the globe. If America gets hit with another major terrorist strike we are going to mop up the Middle East desert with Muslim blood.
The things I see all point to an increase in real currency, ie; gold , silver, etc. Dollars will still have value and I intend to convert back to them, hopefully at a highly increased rate.
I am just of the opinion that these things have been kept artificially low for far too long. We all know the Clinton Administration cooked the books for years and government continues to do so, though not quite as deceptively.
I did what I did because I could afford to, not everyone has that opportunity. Those that are fairly wealthy right now wouldn't take the risk, others can't afford to. Me, I'm in the middle, comfortable but not wealthy and I'm fortunate that I don't really have many worries about my future income and I have already raised all my dependants. I just have to feed and care for 3 cats besides myself.
Like I said earlier, I may lose a little(aren't all financial investments like that?), I may break even, and I may look like a genius and retire early as a multi-millionaire. I'm committed to taking that risk, but I wouldn't want anyone else to do it based on my recommendation. Study, research and then decide. That was my approach.
I came to the conclusion that I would need 250K as a base at today's values to get the return that would allow me to retire early and comfortably. I had only one way to get that and it meant my life savings and my home equity combined. There are some on this board who already have that knid of money to invest and there are some who can't imagine that much money. Like I said, I am in the middle and I see a bull run coming.
The herd mentality is still years away and by then I will have cashed out.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
For Christians out there, let me say one more thing regarding borrowing money to invest. Take heed of the following verses:
Proverbs 22:7 (NIV): "The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender." (the borrower is slave to the lender) 2 Kings 4:7 (NIV): "She went and told the man of God, and he said, "Go, sell the oil and pay your debts. You and your sons can live on what is left."" (you must pay off your debts if you have the means to do do) Habakkuk 2:7 (NIV): "Will not your debtors [creditors] suddenly arise? Will they not wake up and make you tremble? Then you will become their victim." (what God says will happen for he who extorts or steals)
Yes, I am old fashioned. But, I am not broke either.
Hey Dollardude, someone should tell our president,who is a Christian, that debt is a curse. I never though a new president could take a record surplus and turn it into a record deficit overnight. Worker productivity is at an all-time high which is keeping the economy strong. Workers (people) can only work at red-line for so long. Bush's continued spending will eventually force Greenspan to raise interest rates in order to curb spending. Gold, like the stock market, is fueled as much by emotions as by true market conditions. When people see the government no longer able to sustain spending or control interest rates, they will seek safer paths. Gold has usually been a safe , though not spectacular , path.
By the way, all of my stock index funds, including S&P index , have been flat for the year.
Yes, but every president -- Republican and Democrat alike -- has made our national debt worse.
If you want to invest in gold, fine, but I think it is best to do so with cash. If you think the dollar will continue to fall against other currencies, if you think inflation is a problem, if you think other investments will not yield good returns, or if you think the world's economic condition is a problem, then, fine, put some money in gold.
You and I seem to think a lot alike (on this and other posts).
PS: For silver, I think 90% bags would be the way to go right now. Or, Canadian 80% bags - you can get silver slightly cheaper (per ounce) thay way, and there is a slight added benefit from a rising Canadian dollar.
I don't think banks will be open after a terrorist event,
after 9/11 did your bank close that type of event is all that would need to happen for this guy to cash in big time if you look back and he did it after 9/11 how would he look now even with out any things happening how do you think you will pay off the 44000.00 dollars each person in this country owes on the national debt if you look at the past most countries have devalued the money to pay it off we are the biggest debtor nation in history and were exporting our jobs at 50000 plus a month how would you solve this problem
You and I seem to think a lot alike (on this and other posts). >>
Dcarr,
I've already done it. I have a new mortgage and a bunch of pretty Pandas and lots of silver on the way.
As far as thinking alike, while I hope that's a good thing, I'm sure there are a few around here that think we are both crazy.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
[qI've already done it. I have a new mortgage and a bunch of pretty Pandas and lots of silver on the way. As far as thinking alike, while I hope that's a good thing, I'm sure there are a few around here that think we are both crazy. >>
Lately I've been thinking that demand for some of those older (scarcer) Pandas might increase due to more collectors emerging in a wealthier China. So collector/bullion Pandas might be a good way to go all around.
PS: I'd be doing the same sort of thing if I wasn't a "starving artist" at the moment.
Deadhorse, I just called you crazy because you asked to be called that. You gotta bet big to win big, and I wish you luck.
I also don't have any gold position (liquidated my massive 1.75 oz hoard a few weeks ago to a board member), but have considered trading it.
So I'm not trying to make you second-guess your decision, but would like to hear your thoughts, as someone who's lettin' it all hang out...
Aren't many of the scenarios where gold goes up wildly in price due to the dollar devaluing? And in those cases, while you make a lot of dollars, all your dollars are worth less. So then really all you have accomplished is to preserve your wealth (which is certainly better than losing it) but you don't get rich and retire, right?
I'd also be curious to know what your price target is for gold (assuming the dollar doesn't tank) and how you reconcile that against the $200/oz mining cost prevously mentioned (if that's accurate).
Supercoin, I wasn't specifically referring to you. Please don't take my comment as such.
Over the many bullion threads on this board I have been called alot of things, not derogatory nor personally, just that some folks think my bullion stance is, shall we say, "optimistic".
Many folks have given me and others alot of advice against my move, so after getting to the point I am now at, no one can make me second guess my decision.
There are many scenarios as you describe where inflated dollars are actually the same as the bullion when cashed out.
First, the $200 mining cost isn't accurate. It's like saying a CD only cost 5 cents to produce. That's only the final cost, when you figure in all that goes into producing the contents of that 5 cent CD, the picture changes drastically.
If anyone with the bucks to do it could actually mine, refine, etc. gold at $200, don't you think we'd be having a modern gold rush right now. It takes years to develop and set up the neccessary structure to actually mine gold. I have heard and read 8 years as an average time frame.
My beliefs are based on a year or more of deep study, thousands of hours of reading, talking with experts, politicians, bankers, anyone who I feel could help me form an opinion. Remember I also put as much if not more stock into silver bullion here as well. Percentage wise, silver is and will be a better per dollar return.
Today's world isn't the same as it once was, no surprise, I know. I have said before I see war on a global scale. Not WWIII, but an ongoing battle that is between the East and the West. I see gold bullion as real money in a world where currencies are going to fluctuate wildly in the near future.
I do believe that bullion prices have been manipulated artificially and that that jig is about to be up. There is talk of the oil producing states only accepting gold or the Euro as an exchange. The Chinese governement very likely controls the mojority of the world's gold supply and they are still buying it up.
It's also a gut feeling, something that I feel so strongly about that I almost feel I have no choice. I would hate to look back in 3-5 years and think "what could have been". I haven't borrowed anything to do this, it's my equity and my savings. I am in no danger of suffering over this. My life style isn't going to change.
I don't have a target price, I'm in it for the long run, by that I mean 3 to 8 years. If you want to hear my outlandish conclusions, here they are: Gold will be trading at $1400 or more in 3+ years and silver around $14 to $18. Inflation isn't going to be anywhere near that 350% amount.
Some so called experts think gold will trade at $3200 in 5 years and silver at $40. I don't believe it will go that high, not that I would mind one bit.
Letting it all hang out is one way to put it, I prefer to think I have made a serious studied decision that I will look back on as the most significant positive choice I have ever made.
Look, if bullion dropped to zero tomorrow, I'd just start out again like I did 12 years ago after a nasty divorce when she got everything and I got the kids. Actually, I was in deep debt after that, today I have no debt to speak of. I am very fortunate to have a well paying job with security and I consider myself very lucky to be able to do what I am doing.
I have also been pleasantly surprised at the supportive PMs I have gotten recently.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>There is talk of the oil producing states only accepting gold or the Euro as an exchange. >>
Not if they want any F-16's. That stuff is pure posturing by OPEC. They still understand which of the world's economies impacts all others.
Deadhorse, your decision is definitely bold and I wish you well. The momentum is definitley upward and I think you will do well in 2004. All markets are cyclical. All of them. Those who attempt to fight the momentum usually have their head handed to them. The riskiest aspect of any market, is attempting to "call" the top or the bottom. Riding the momentum is the easier route. Good luck!
<< <i>Aren't many of the scenarios where gold goes up wildly in price due to the dollar devaluing? And in those cases, while you make a lot of dollars, all your dollars are worth less. So then really all you have accomplished is to preserve your wealth (which is certainly better than losing it) but you don't get rich and retire, right? >>
Yes, but look at it this way:
Suppose someone borrowed $100,000 and invested it in something that has stable purchasing power (like gold, an inflation "hedge"). Over a two year span, the dollar loses half it's value (compared to other world currencies and commodities). The gold is now worth $200,000. That person could sell half of it, pay off the debt, and still have $100,000 worth of gold. If interest rates were high, this wouldn't be a very good move. But they are very low right now, of course.
It is not so much investing in gold as it is "shorting" the US dollar. If you borrow money and pay it back later with a devalued currency, then you are way ahead. Basially, you are selling the dollar high (shorting), and buying it back later when it is low to close out your position at a net profit.
<< <i>I'm still not clear, is that $1400 gold in today's dollars, or some global-strife-devalued dollar?
In other words, compared to your next-door neighbor who left his money in his house (another "real" asset)... do you come out two houses ahead? >>
In today's dollars, minus perhaps 3 to 5 % inflation over that time. I hope to come out three or four houses ahead.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< If you want to hear my outlandish conclusions, here they are: Gold will be trading at $1400 or more in 3+ years and silver around $14 to $18. Inflation isn't going to be anywhere near that 350% amount. >>
I'm sorry, I just had to laugh at this absurd claim!
<< <i><< If you want to hear my outlandish conclusions, here they are: Gold will be trading at $1400 or more in 3+ years and silver around $14 to $18. Inflation isn't going to be anywhere near that 350% amount. >>
I'm sorry, I just had to laugh at this absurd claim! >>
I don't think any of us believe you are at all sorry.
It's not a claim, it's my very high side outlook, hence I labeled it outlandish.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Where will equities be in 3-5 years? Is a 20,000 Dow possible. How long will Nasdaq take to return to 5000? 1400 gold may be absurd. Maybe not. 18 silver would still be 60% below it's former (manipulated) top. There is certainly room for opinion here. It is all speculation. A well diversified portfolio including some or all of what has been talked about will serve anyone well. Mortgage the house and put it all in metals? Not for me. Include metals along with many other forms of investments? Sounds good.
I approve of Deadhorse's bold move. I'd do the same but don't tend to get off my butt fast enough for anything. I'd like to get out of my house, rent until housing prices fall bunch over the next 10 years then buy back in. In the meantime stay invested in gold and rare coins....maybe a stock bear fund or too banking against the S&P.
If I had to bet $10,000 on the DOW going above 12,000 during the next 5 years or gold reaching $1000, I'd bet on the gold in a heartbeat. We are in fool's bear rally in stocks....sucking in the last of the bulls while all the fat cats have been bailing out for the past several months. Pension funds, mutual funds and 401K's will be the last one's holding this "bag" of paper.
Forget the trends and the 100 years of history. Just look at the current stats and valuations. I wish I had more of my assets in silver though as I think it has slingshot potential. There are no real silver reserves on the market. And to those who think the gold producers can gear up production in a year or less to meet a rising speculative gold demand, forget it. It takes years to really move up on the gold production...not months. This is a once or twice in a lifetime move in the price of gold....just like the 1990's NASDAQ was a lifetime move than many of us will never again see in our lifetimes.
<< <i>If I had to bet $10,000 on the DOW going above 12,000 during the next 5 years or gold reaching $1000, I'd bet on the gold in a heartbeat. We are in fool's bear rally in stocks....sucking in the last of the bulls while all the fat cats have been bailing out for the past several months. Pension funds, mutual funds and 401K's will be the last one's holding this "bag" of paper. >>
<< <i>If I had to bet $10,000 on the DOW going above 12,000 during the next 5 years or gold reaching $1000, I'd bet on the gold in a heartbeat. We are in fool's bear rally in stocks....sucking in the last of the bulls while all the fat cats have been bailing out for the past several months. Pension funds, mutual funds and 401K's will be the last one's holding this "bag" of paper. >>
>>
I'll take that bet. Dow 12,000 is easy. I'd even be willing to bet we see it within 3 years. I do, however, believe silver to have good upward potential as well.
The central banks still have enormous reserves of gold. There was very little actually distributed in the '80's and '90's. They used the threat of sales and the availability of the metal to hold the price down more than an actual increase in supplies. These people are not going to allow all the worlds currencies to be trashed as real wealth shifts into gold. They will begin selling again when it reaches a point that they believe can be held. This new point can be "held" for years though may drift higher to reflect inflation.
Deadhorse - Its your old buddy Tyler, Hey how are you doing? I will be in town soon, got some business to do. What was your address again? Are you still in Nevada or California...hell you'll have to refresh me on which state you live in now.
Hey, I want to make sure I don't miss you when I swing by your place so please tell me what times you WON'T be home that way I can make sure to come by when you are home!
Thanks for that link. I was about to respond to Cladking's statement.
The Western Central banks have only 25 to 40% of the gold reserves they report they have. They are about to run out of the product they claim to have bunches of and they don't have too many more times to sell off in attempts to manipulate the price downward.
The chickens are indeed about to come home and do what chickens do besides roost. Anybody here ever clean out the henhouse in the spring and see what's under the roost?
I have and if you have then you know the true meaning of chickens**t. In massive quantities it can be more than overwhelming.
I have no wish for others to suffer financially, but those who have been shorting and lying for all this time are about to get what they deserve.
I'm only a little guy but I'll take all I can when this mess finally comes to a head. Frankly, If I had a million $$ I'd put in all into silver and gold bullion tomorrow.
I'm doing my part and as I said, I wish 100,000 others would do the same and hold the physical metal, not paper. I'll bet that those with paper silver probably share that silver with 20 other people who also believe they own it too.
When/if the demand for actual possession becomes standard, the prices will skyrocket and it will take years for actual production to even begin to catch up.
I wonder how many people know that all those pictures they used to see of the 1000 ounce bars supposedly stacked up high and wide in Fort Knox were looking at plated lead?
The government put severe round the clock military guards around that place for years and they were only protecting an illusion. Right now the bullion market is just as illusionary.
Time will tell, of course. But I feel better and better about my decision every hour of each day.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Deadhorse - Its your old buddy Tyler, Hey how are you doing? I will be in town soon, got some business to do. What was your address again? Are you still in Nevada or California...hell you'll have to refresh me on which state you live in now.
Hey, I want to make sure I don't miss you when I swing by your place so please tell me what times you WON'T be home that way I can make sure to come by when you are home!
Tyler >>
Uh, you have me at a disadvantage here. Perhaps you have me confused with someone else. I have never lived in either Nevada nor California.
"Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Rumors have abounded for years that the gold is gone from depositories, but there is no evidence of this. If this gold were actually gone the repercussions would be severe and immediate. The veracity of the claims here are highly sus- pect.
If it were true it might be more appropriate to buy canned foods and gasoline.
Comments
depends on price which depends on recent volatility, trend and current
one advantage of options is that if you buy one, you know what your downside loss will be maxed at - if you sell one, you are getting a little premium with alot of risk
As with many who post here, I have credentials in this area. I am not telling you not to buy gold, just councilling that any strategy that puts all your money into one area is unsound.
I'll take that bet provided we also interview 5 people who lost at least 40% and $100,000 of their retirement. He11 I know 4 off the top of my head..... Anyone heard the "my 401k turned into a 101k" joke?
The guy who used to sit across from me at work had a Financial Advisor who used Growth Stocks to turn $1 million into $500,000. The idiot Advisor had him convinced they would come back........and they will, but John was 63 and ready to retire today, not 20 years from now.
The largest physical buyer of gold in the world, India, has reduced imports into Ahmedabad from 300-400 kg per day to 50 to 60 kg per day. Recent increases in gold prices are speculative and NOT from physical demand. Short term prices will increase from the falling dollar and futures speculation, we could see another 1980 but remember this was very short term. In the long term the small players investing in bullion will lose.
<< <i>Holding a piece of paper rather than the actual metal kind of goes against everything a person believes in who would buy gold anyway. >>
Very true !
<< <i>I think any wise investor should use a diversification strategy. Dont put all your investing eggs in one (gold) basket. The issue is risk. >>
Here is a diversification strategy:
Put your money into four different types of assets -
Silver Palladium Gold Platinum
(in that order)
No! While both are leveraged plays, there are very important differences.
Buying an Option gives you the right, but not the obligation, to buy some gold at a certain price. That's a great thing. The bad part is that you a premium to do that, and your option expires at some point. Thus the value of your option generally decays with time and can expire worthless if things don't go your way before expiration.
When you buy a futures contract, someone is selling you a future delivery of gold. There is nothing optional about a futures contract, and its value will fluctuate almost identically in proportion with the current metal price.
In reality, very few futures holders take delivery of the actual metal, instead you would sell your contract at a profit or loss, or roll it over into a new contract if you want to continue your position.
The beauty of a futures contract is the leverage it provides. If you have $100,000 you want to invest in gold, you could control equivalent futures contracts for perhaps $10,000. The remaining $90,000 can stay in the bank earning interest. Or of course you could buy $1,000,000 of gold with your $100,000 if you're a wild horse.
The other huge advantage is the exceptionally low transaction costs compared to physical metal. Through my broker I can buy/sell an electronically traded gold future that represents 33.2 troy oz for only $2.40 each way. Right now FEB 04 Gold futures are bid/ask at 404.80/405.40.
So for example, the total costs on buying/selling 100 oz of gold would be:
Buy 3 YG FEB04 @ 405.40
Sell 3 YG FEB04 @ 404.80
Net loss 0.60 per contract (x 33.2) = 59.76
Commissions 3 x 2.40 each way = 14.40
Total round trip cost: 74.16
So to buy/sell 100 ounces -- that's over $40,000 in gold -- costs you under $75 ROUND-TRIP with a futures contract. And in fact you can reduce that even further buy cutting the buy/sell spread with limit orders.
There is no way physical gold can begin to compare to that in terms of transaction costs or in speed of execution.
If you are trading gold short-term in quantity I think futures are definitely the way to go. The only reason not to is if you are buying gold for an armaggedon scenario. And if that's happening short-term, you might want to think about canned goods instead.
The other big advantage of futures for those who aren't quite so bullish is that they go both ways with equal facility. You can short 100 oz of gold as easily as you can buy it.
<< <i>I'm not anti-bullion but you have to understand what gold is - a commodity. Commodities are ALWAYS traded in the short term. If you tie up large amounts of physical gold or silver for long-term investment (actually holding commodities is "speculation" not investment) purposes you are invariably making a mistake. >>
Gold is both a "commodity" and a "currency". In many parts of the world, gold is still used as the MOST favored currency available. And I think that the US is going to become more like the rest of the world (that's what "globalization" really is after all - lower standards of living in the US and higher standards in developing countries like China).
I agree, though, that gold really isn't an "investment". If you buy it on margin, or with short term goals, then you are speculating. If you just buy gold to save, then it is a hedge (a relatively stable asset that maintains it's purchasing power over the long term).
Putting money into a startup business is true "investing", so long as you have intimate knowledge of the company and it's potential.
I would argue, however, that "investing" in stocks of established companies, that don't pay significant dividends, run by people you don't personally know, is really a foolish "speculation".
Also, I would NOT borrow money -- especially on your house -- to invest in ANYTHING. PERIOD. Not even in options or contracts. Too risky -- look at what happened in 1929 when the stock market crashed. If anyone insists on investing in gold, PLEASE do so with CASH.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
whoops, I mean Supercoin. I was reading Dollardude's post.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
If worse came to worse, I could pay it off easily in 8 years from my salary and still live well. I have job security as well(family business and long-term signed contracts).
My diversification strategy is silver-gold-platinum-a few high end numismatic pieces, in that order. In large purchases, I will be paying a very small premium over spot.
I fully intend to bail in no more than 3-5 years tops and if things go as my studies have indicated, them I'm retired early, happy and growing tomatos somewhere out in the country.
If not, I work 10 more years and still retire early, just not quite as soon nor as financially comfortable.
Sometimes you just have to go with what your gut and intellilect tell you to do. I don't want to be kicking myself 3 years from now, and for the rest of my life, because I didn't act when I could have.
I'm a big boy, I can take my lumps if I have to. But for me this is the ONLY thing I feel I have to do at this time. I didn't get where I am today by being stupid, I'm in no danger of living under a bridge and I'm not risking anything that I can't afford to.
I wish one hundred thousand people would do this same thing today, there isn't enough physical silver and gold available to meet the demand. The house of cards would fold up and bullion would rise 5 to 10 fold in the short term.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
BEST OF LUCK
the metal will always be worth something more then can be said about alot
of things these days or in the near future
<< <i>Sounds like you have put alot of thought in to this
BEST OF LUCK
the metal will always be worth something more then can be said about alot
of things these days or in the near future >>
Wayneme,
Thanks. Yes I have put alot of study and thought into this move, a lot. A little prayer too.
I couldn't agree more with your opinion about the fact bullion will always have some value as opposed to other investments.
The downside is low, the upside is tremendous. I'll either lose a little, break even or come out looking like a genius. I've decided to take that risk.
It's not a decision that I've rashly rushed into and it wasn't an easy one by any means. But it's a done deal now.
I'm about to take possesion of a nice batch of 1 ounce Pandas and I have placed a buy order for 5,000 ounces of silver.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I need some advice. If I mortgage my house and buy, say, $100,000 of gold and silver, where do I keep it?
A bank safe box would be OK, but will banks be open if our electronic securities system is down?
The herd is when Fortune Magazine has a front page tease that reads: "$10,000 gold in this decade? See what five experts have to say."
We're not even close to the herd yet.
I stand corrected. Gold did close slightly up today, after being slightly down. Also, the S&P 500 did close slightly down, after being up.
I'll stick with my basic old-fashioned investment strategy that most financial experts agree with. I still say gold is a horrible investment (or commodity), but, I will repeat my advice. PLEASE INVEST USING CASH ONLY. PLEASE DO NOT BORROW TO INVEST IN ANYTHING!!!!!
For all you Christians out there, the bible ONLY mentions debt as a CURSE. It never mentions debt as a blessing. Read it if you don't believe me!
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
<< <i>I need some advice. If I mortgage my house and buy, say, $100,000 of gold and silver, where do I keep it?
A bank safe box would be OK, but will banks be open if our electronic securities system is down? >>
I am fortunate in that I have a bank vault that I have access to and the cost is next to nothing. This won't apply in most people's cases.
I don't think this is Armageddon, not even close. I do believe that after next year's presidential election we will see further weakening of the dollar, I actually see major weakening.
I also see inflation and perhaps a deflation/devaluation in real estate, a correction might be a better description. I'm not looking at a depression, nothing like that at all.
I do see war in our future, I see a resumption of the draft and a long series of wars all over the globe. If America gets hit with another major terrorist strike we are going to mop up the Middle East desert with Muslim blood.
The things I see all point to an increase in real currency, ie; gold , silver, etc. Dollars will still have value and I intend to convert back to them, hopefully at a highly increased rate.
I am just of the opinion that these things have been kept artificially low for far too long. We all know the Clinton Administration cooked the books for years and government continues to do so, though not quite as deceptively.
I did what I did because I could afford to, not everyone has that opportunity. Those that are fairly wealthy right now wouldn't take the risk, others can't afford to. Me, I'm in the middle, comfortable but not wealthy and I'm fortunate that I don't really have many worries about my future income and I have already raised all my dependants. I just have to feed and care for 3 cats besides myself.
Like I said earlier, I may lose a little(aren't all financial investments like that?), I may break even, and I may look like a genius and retire early as a multi-millionaire. I'm committed to taking that risk, but I wouldn't want anyone else to do it based on my recommendation. Study, research and then decide. That was my approach.
I came to the conclusion that I would need 250K as a base at today's values to get the return that would allow me to retire early and comfortably. I had only one way to get that and it meant my life savings and my home equity combined. There are some on this board who already have that knid of money to invest and there are some who can't imagine that much money. Like I said, I am in the middle and I see a bull run coming.
The herd mentality is still years away and by then I will have cashed out.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Proverbs 22:7 (NIV): "The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender." (the borrower is slave to the lender)
2 Kings 4:7 (NIV): "She went and told the man of God, and he said, "Go, sell the oil and pay your debts. You and your sons can live on what is left."" (you must pay off your debts if you have the means to do do)
Habakkuk 2:7 (NIV): "Will not your debtors [creditors] suddenly arise? Will they not wake up and make you tremble? Then you will become their victim." (what God says will happen for he who extorts or steals)
Yes, I am old fashioned. But, I am not broke either.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
I never though a new president could take a record surplus and turn it into a record deficit
overnight. Worker productivity is at an all-time high which is keeping the economy strong.
Workers (people) can only work at red-line for so long.
Bush's continued spending will eventually force Greenspan to raise interest rates in order
to curb spending.
Gold, like the stock market, is fueled as much by emotions as by true market conditions.
When people see the government no longer able to sustain spending or control interest
rates, they will seek safer paths. Gold has usually been a safe , though not spectacular , path.
By the way, all of my stock index funds, including S&P index , have been flat for the year.
If you want to invest in gold, fine, but I think it is best to do so with cash. If you think the dollar will continue to fall against other currencies, if you think inflation is a problem, if you think other investments will not yield good returns, or if you think the world's economic condition is a problem, then, fine, put some money in gold.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
Sounds like a wild plan - I say go for it.
You and I seem to think a lot alike (on this and other posts).
PS: For silver, I think 90% bags would be the way to go right now.
Or, Canadian 80% bags - you can get silver slightly cheaper (per ounce)
thay way, and there is a slight added benefit from a rising Canadian dollar.
Well, looks like I'm stumped until I can figure out where to pile up $100,000 worth of gold.......
I don't think banks will be open after a terrorist event, and I don't want to keep it in the freezer (need room for catfish
100000/ 400 = 250 ozs about 15 pounds any shoe box will work
it's not that big of pile
I catch big fish!
after 9/11 did your bank close that type of event is all that would need to happen for this guy to cash in big time if you look back and he did it after 9/11 how would he look now
even with out any things happening
how do you think you will pay off the 44000.00 dollars each person in this country owes
on the national debt
if you look at the past most countries have devalued the money to pay it off
we are the biggest debtor nation in history and were exporting our jobs at 50000 plus a month
how would you solve this problem
<< <i>Deadhorse -
Sounds like a wild plan - I say go for it.
You and I seem to think a lot alike (on this and other posts). >>
Dcarr,
I've already done it. I have a new mortgage and a bunch of pretty Pandas and lots of silver on the way.
As far as thinking alike, while I hope that's a good thing, I'm sure there are a few around here that think we are both crazy.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
As far as thinking alike, while I hope that's a good thing, I'm sure there are a few around here that think we are both crazy.
Lately I've been thinking that demand for some of those older (scarcer) Pandas might increase due to more collectors emerging in a wealthier China. So collector/bullion Pandas might be a good way to go all around.
PS: I'd be doing the same sort of thing if I wasn't a "starving artist" at the moment.
I also don't have any gold position (liquidated my massive 1.75 oz hoard a few weeks ago to a board member), but have considered trading it.
So I'm not trying to make you second-guess your decision, but would like to hear your thoughts, as someone who's lettin' it all hang out...
Aren't many of the scenarios where gold goes up wildly in price due to the dollar devaluing? And in those cases, while you make a lot of dollars, all your dollars are worth less. So then really all you have accomplished is to preserve your wealth (which is certainly better than losing it) but you don't get rich and retire, right?
I'd also be curious to know what your price target is for gold (assuming the dollar doesn't tank) and how you reconcile that against the $200/oz mining cost prevously mentioned (if that's accurate).
Over the many bullion threads on this board I have been called alot of things, not derogatory nor personally, just that some folks think my bullion stance is, shall we say, "optimistic".
Many folks have given me and others alot of advice against my move, so after getting to the point I am now at, no one can make me second guess my decision.
There are many scenarios as you describe where inflated dollars are actually the same as the bullion when cashed out.
First, the $200 mining cost isn't accurate. It's like saying a CD only cost 5 cents to produce. That's only the final cost, when you figure in all that goes into producing the contents of that 5 cent CD, the picture changes drastically.
If anyone with the bucks to do it could actually mine, refine, etc. gold at $200, don't you think we'd be having a modern gold rush right now. It takes years to develop and set up the neccessary structure to actually mine gold. I have heard and read 8 years as an average time frame.
My beliefs are based on a year or more of deep study, thousands of hours of reading, talking with experts, politicians, bankers, anyone who I feel could help me form an opinion. Remember I also put as much if not more stock into silver bullion here as well. Percentage wise, silver is and will be a better per dollar return.
Today's world isn't the same as it once was, no surprise, I know. I have said before I see war on a global scale. Not WWIII, but an ongoing battle that is between the East and the West. I see gold bullion as real money in a world where currencies are going to fluctuate wildly in the near future.
I do believe that bullion prices have been manipulated artificially and that that jig is about to be up. There is talk of the oil producing states only accepting gold or the Euro as an exchange. The Chinese governement very likely controls the mojority of the world's gold supply and they are still buying it up.
It's also a gut feeling, something that I feel so strongly about that I almost feel I have no choice. I would hate to look back in 3-5 years and think "what could have been". I haven't borrowed anything to do this, it's my equity and my savings. I am in no danger of suffering over this. My life style isn't going to change.
I don't have a target price, I'm in it for the long run, by that I mean 3 to 8 years. If you want to hear my outlandish conclusions, here they are: Gold will be trading at $1400 or more in 3+ years and silver around $14 to $18. Inflation isn't going to be anywhere near that 350% amount.
Some so called experts think gold will trade at $3200 in 5 years and silver at $40. I don't believe it will go that high, not that I would mind one bit.
Letting it all hang out is one way to put it, I prefer to think I have made a serious studied decision that I will look back on as the most significant positive choice I have ever made.
Look, if bullion dropped to zero tomorrow, I'd just start out again like I did 12 years ago after a nasty divorce when she got everything and I got the kids. Actually, I was in deep debt after that, today I have no debt to speak of. I am very fortunate to have a well paying job with security and I consider myself very lucky to be able to do what I am doing.
I have also been pleasantly surprised at the supportive PMs I have gotten recently.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
In other words, compared to your next-door neighbor who left his money in his house (another "real" asset)... do you come out two houses ahead?
<< <i>There is talk of the oil producing states only accepting gold or the Euro as an exchange. >>
Not if they want any F-16's. That stuff is pure posturing by OPEC. They still understand which of the world's economies impacts all others.
Deadhorse, your decision is definitely bold and I wish you well. The momentum is definitley upward and I think you will do well in 2004. All markets are cyclical. All of them. Those who attempt to fight the momentum usually have their head handed to them. The riskiest aspect of any market, is attempting to "call" the top or the bottom. Riding the momentum is the easier route. Good luck!
<< <i>Aren't many of the scenarios where gold goes up wildly in price due to the dollar devaluing? And in those cases, while you make a lot of dollars, all your dollars are worth less. So then really all you have accomplished is to preserve your wealth (which is certainly better than losing it) but you don't get rich and retire, right? >>
Yes, but look at it this way:
Suppose someone borrowed $100,000 and invested it in something that has stable purchasing power (like gold, an inflation "hedge"). Over a two year span, the dollar loses half it's value (compared to other world currencies and commodities). The gold is now worth $200,000. That person could sell half of it, pay off the debt, and still have $100,000 worth of gold. If interest rates were high, this wouldn't be a very good move. But they are very low right now, of course.
It is not so much investing in gold as it is "shorting" the US dollar. If you borrow money and pay it back later with a devalued currency, then you are way ahead. Basially, you are selling the dollar high (shorting), and buying it back later when it is low to close out your position at a net profit.
<< <i>I'm still not clear, is that $1400 gold in today's dollars, or some global-strife-devalued dollar?
In other words, compared to your next-door neighbor who left his money in his house (another "real" asset)... do you come out two houses ahead? >>
In today's dollars, minus perhaps 3 to 5 % inflation over that time. I hope to come out three or four houses ahead.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
I'm sorry, I just had to laugh at this absurd claim!
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
<< <i><< If you want to hear my outlandish conclusions, here they are: Gold will be trading at $1400 or more in 3+ years and silver around $14 to $18. Inflation isn't going to be anywhere near that 350% amount. >>
I'm sorry, I just had to laugh at this absurd claim! >>
I don't think any of us believe you are at all sorry.
It's not a claim, it's my very high side outlook, hence I labeled it outlandish.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Live Long and Prospect.
If I had to bet $10,000 on the DOW going above 12,000 during the next 5 years or gold reaching $1000, I'd bet on the gold in a heartbeat. We are in fool's bear rally in stocks....sucking in the last of the bulls while all the fat cats have been bailing out for the past several months. Pension funds, mutual funds and 401K's will be the last one's holding this "bag" of paper.
Forget the trends and the 100 years of history. Just look at the current stats and valuations. I wish I had more of my assets in silver though as I think it has slingshot potential. There are no real silver reserves on the market. And to those who think the gold producers can gear up production in a year or less to meet a rising speculative gold demand, forget it. It takes years to really move up on the gold production...not months. This is a once or twice in a lifetime move in the price of gold....just like the 1990's NASDAQ was a lifetime move than many of us will never again see in our lifetimes.
roadrunner
<< <i>If I had to bet $10,000 on the DOW going above 12,000 during the next 5 years or gold reaching $1000, I'd bet on the gold in a heartbeat. We are in fool's bear rally in stocks....sucking in the last of the bulls while all the fat cats have been bailing out for the past several months. Pension funds, mutual funds and 401K's will be the last one's holding this "bag" of paper. >>
Silver American Eagles ROCK
<< <i>
<< <i>If I had to bet $10,000 on the DOW going above 12,000 during the next 5 years or gold reaching $1000, I'd bet on the gold in a heartbeat. We are in fool's bear rally in stocks....sucking in the last of the bulls while all the fat cats have been bailing out for the past several months. Pension funds, mutual funds and 401K's will be the last one's holding this "bag" of paper. >>
>>
I'll take that bet. Dow 12,000 is easy. I'd even be willing to bet we see it within 3 years. I do, however, believe silver to have good upward potential as well.
Silver American Eagles ROCK
distributed in the '80's and '90's. They used the threat of sales and the availability of
the metal to hold the price down more than an actual increase in supplies. These people
are not going to allow all the worlds currencies to be trashed as real wealth shifts into
gold. They will begin selling again when it reaches a point that they believe can be held.
This new point can be "held" for years though may drift higher to reflect inflation.
Hey, I want to make sure I don't miss you when I swing by your place so please tell me what times you WON'T be home that way I can make sure to come by when you are home!
Tyler
Thanks for that link. I was about to respond to Cladking's statement.
The Western Central banks have only 25 to 40% of the gold reserves they report they have. They are about to run out of the product they claim to have bunches of and they don't have too many more times to sell off in attempts to manipulate the price downward.
The chickens are indeed about to come home and do what chickens do besides roost. Anybody here ever clean out the henhouse in the spring and see what's under the roost?
I have and if you have then you know the true meaning of chickens**t. In massive quantities it can be more than overwhelming.
I have no wish for others to suffer financially, but those who have been shorting and lying for all this time are about to get what they deserve.
I'm only a little guy but I'll take all I can when this mess finally comes to a head. Frankly, If I had a million $$ I'd put in all into silver and gold bullion tomorrow.
I'm doing my part and as I said, I wish 100,000 others would do the same and hold the physical metal, not paper. I'll bet that those with paper silver probably share that silver with 20 other people who also believe they own it too.
When/if the demand for actual possession becomes standard, the prices will skyrocket and it will take years for actual production to even begin to catch up.
I wonder how many people know that all those pictures they used to see of the 1000 ounce bars supposedly stacked up high and wide in Fort Knox were looking at plated lead?
The government put severe round the clock military guards around that place for years and they were only protecting an illusion. Right now the bullion market is just as illusionary.
Time will tell, of course. But I feel better and better about my decision every hour of each day.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>Deadhorse - Its your old buddy Tyler, Hey how are you doing? I will be in town soon, got some business to do. What was your address again? Are you still in Nevada or California...hell you'll have to refresh me on which state you live in now.
Hey, I want to make sure I don't miss you when I swing by your place so please tell me what times you WON'T be home that way I can make sure to come by when you are home!
Tyler >>
Uh, you have me at a disadvantage here. Perhaps you have me confused with someone else. I have never lived in either Nevada nor California.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Rumors have abounded for years that the gold is gone from depositories, but
there is no evidence of this. If this gold were actually gone the repercussions
would be severe and immediate. The veracity of the claims here are highly sus-
pect.
If it were true it might be more appropriate to buy canned foods and gasoline.