What sets would you drop from SMR?
NickM
Posts: 4,895 ✭✭✭
I would start by dropping the '60 Bell Brand set. There have been a TOTAL of 63 cards graded from the 20-card set. 39 of those cards are in the 3 registered sets. The players depicted in the set have from 2 to 10 cards graded each. There are a total of 4 9's, and no player has 2 9s. Seven of the players don't exist in 8 or 9, including Snider - and no Maury Wills is higher than a 6. There is one Koufax 9 (in a registered set) and no Koufax 7s or 8s. Only 3 players have 2 8s.
There simply is very little trading activity going on for PSA graded cards from this set, and no way to accurately predict what these cards will sell for. The prices were simply pulled out of the air.
Pricing on some of the other Bell Brand sets ia also a joke, but not as extreme as this set - although to give PSA 5 through PSA 9 prices for the '62 Bell Brand Alston, when no Alston from that year has been graded higher than a PSA 4, is pretty absurd.
I like these sets. I collect them. I just don't think that they should be listed in anything that purports to be a Market Report.
Nick
There simply is very little trading activity going on for PSA graded cards from this set, and no way to accurately predict what these cards will sell for. The prices were simply pulled out of the air.
Pricing on some of the other Bell Brand sets ia also a joke, but not as extreme as this set - although to give PSA 5 through PSA 9 prices for the '62 Bell Brand Alston, when no Alston from that year has been graded higher than a PSA 4, is pretty absurd.
I like these sets. I collect them. I just don't think that they should be listed in anything that purports to be a Market Report.
Nick
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Bottom line is that I think SMR could reduce costs and improve performance by eliminating many of the sets throughout SMR and employe a rolling "spotlight set" or two ever month to highlight SMR prices for those sets. Online they can continue to keep all the set prices -- I just don't see the value added given the costs for many of the smaller and regional sets to be published on a monthly basis.
I dont see the value on have a monthy game-used and autograph section. These sections accounted for total of 16 pages in the November 2003 issue. Do we really need to have the price of a Tony Amonte signed photo each month? The "how-to" section is nice but the information is the same month after month after month. Okay..you read it once.....but not every month. Maybe this information could be included on a quarterly rather than a monthly basis.
Why is this set (or any of the other Kahn's, which seem to average less than 2 of each card graded) listed in SMR in the first place? Surely PSA doesn't think that it can give accurate prices on cards that have never been graded.
Nick
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But wait, there's more. 1956 Kahn's Wieners is listed, with PSA 5 through PSA 9 prices given for Gus Bell, Joe Black, Smokey Burgess, Ted Kluszewski, and Frank Robinson. Yet PSA's Population Report does not even have a listing for 1956 Kahn's Wieners! The same is true of the 1955 Kahn's Wieners set (although that one only lists Bell and Kluszewski as singles) - the set is in SMR, but the Population Report shows none have ever been graded.
What exactly is going on here? Is this part of some plot to trap other price guides for copyright infringement if they copy PSA's price listings?
I would love to know who asked for pricing on the '55 and '56 Kahn's Wieners sets.
Nick
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Also, drop prices for any card that doesn't exist- it is all conjecture, and if a card is ever graded that high (the recent '55 Clemente comes to mind) do you really think anyone will be going by SMR? I wonder if some prices in SMR serve only to limit liability in case PSA loses or damages a submission in its possesion?
Lastly, I don't see the point in SMR pricing on any cards of players currently playing. This is dictated by the current pop and current playing statistics, and it's too volatile for print media.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
Of course I would like to see a special SMR edition for Kellogg's only. It deserves it! I can see that 3-D cover of the SMR now .
Secondly, get rid of the articles not only about the above topic but most articles in general.
Third, keep all the vintage regional sets--I am sending in all my Kahn's sets--the population of these will sharply increase.
SMR would be more useful to vintage collectors if it was an accurate comprehensive price guide for vintage cards.
I completely forgot about the T3s. I agree with Marc that PSA is trying to lead the market there (and probably on the Kahn's as well). That, however, seems wrong to me. PSA is supposed to be reporting on a market, not trying to make one. Putting aside questions like conflict of interest and whether they could do a favor for a dealer who submits a large quantity of a set for grading by pricing those cards in advance, when they come up with prices independent of actual regular deals, they run a substantial chance that they will in no way reflect the actual market.
Nick
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<< <i>I completely forgot about the T3s. I agree with Marc that PSA is trying to lead the market there (and probably on the Kahn's as well). That, however, seems wrong to me. PSA is supposed to be reporting on a market, not trying to make one. Putting aside questions like conflict of interest and whether they could do a favor for a dealer who submits a large quantity of a set for grading by pricing those cards in advance, when they come up with prices independent of actual regular deals, they run a substantial chance that they will in no way reflect the actual market.
Nick >>
I think it is appropriate for PSA to lead the market with pricing for new regional and other sets that it grades. It helps provide a guideline for dealers about where the breakeven points/prices may be. We often criticize SMR for inaccurate pricing (and they do have tons of room for improvement....), however SMR still lists prices for PSA 9 cards that do not exist -- and many modern PSA 10 cards that do not exist, either. However, I do not necessarily think that that is a bad or inappropriate thing. Though there has never been a 1982 Topps #100 Mike Schmidt graded PSA 10 GEM MINT -- that does not necessarily mean that it's value in undetermined. I could tell you within a fairly tight range what the card would likely sell for in a given situation. Also -- PSA does not want to "lead" prices too much on cards that have been graded for a while. Remember, it was not too long ago that the "prevailing market price" for a 1952 Topps Herm Wehmeier PSA 8 card was well into the four figures. The one or two sales that led that increase in valuation led to a subsequent increase in population and eventual settling down in price of that card. However, on the other hand, I think PSA is perhaps too conservative in this regard. There are few "tough" 1950s era PSA 8 commons that will have a huge spike in population going forward. Though the commons that sell for $5,000 - $10,000+ will likely settle down -- they will never settle down to anything close to the regular SMR common price.
MS
I would drop all that autograph, equipment and memorabilia stuff from the magazine. I never look at it.
Skycap
Davalillo - when you get your Kahn's sets graded, that will dramatically increase the population of those cards, but it will not introduce any into trading circulation (unless you sell your sets). There is no way that you can have an accurate price guide unless there have been transactions of the item you wish to assign a price to.
Marc - I don't believe it is comparable to assign a price in the abstract on one card in one grade and to assign prices on all the key cards in a set (in multiple grades) when they have never been graded. The latter is sheer guesswork. There needs to have been a substantial enough transaction base in the same or comparable cards to make any reasonable estimate. Where is that base for Kahn's cards?
Nick
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<< <i>Marc - I don't believe it is comparable to assign a price in the abstract on one card in one grade and to assign prices on all the key cards in a set (in multiple grades) when they have never been graded. The latter is sheer guesswork. There needs to have been a substantial enough transaction base in the same or comparable cards to make any reasonable estimate. Where is that base for Kahn's cards?
Nick >>
Nick:
Where is the basis? Two places:
A) Price guides and auction results from the past few years of these sets in raw form provide an excellent basis for establishing a projected range of what these cards will eventually settle in at in PSA holders. Believe it or not -- most PSA graded cards tend to have a fairly similar multiplier ratio for nearly all PSA grades within the set. There are some exceptions to that (for example -- 1968 Topps PSA 9's are relatively cheap)...but there are some general rules of thumb. The hobby as a whole has been buying and selling Kahn's sets actively for the past 10-20 years (AT LEAST). People have been paying premiums for these cards based upon relative condition of the sets. I don't think it's that hard.
The best example of this is T3s. There has LONG been a very active market in T3 cards. The Ty Cobb T3, for example, often reaches five figures in even many lesser conditions. PSA has NEVER graded T3s before now -- and all of a sudden there is a PSA 8 NM/MT T3 Cobb in the December Mastro auction. I absolutely guarantee you that there are numerous vintage collectors out there who have been in the hobby for a very long time, who have collections worth hundreds of thousands of dollars -- experienced collectors who can tell you how much a NM/MT T3 Cobb is worth -- independent of what the grading companies say.
Especially with many vintage, pre-war issues, grading is more of a tool for describing the subtle differences between grades and for (hopefully) ensuring that a card has not been altered in any way. Though PSA and SGC bring value propositions to the market -- the market has not historically been too inefficient at pricing these vintage beauties even with the absence of third party grading.
MS
I find it ironic that you want to get rid of Dodgers Bell Brand sets from the SMR even though you collect these cards. I detect a bit of frustration. Believe me: they're not coming out of the SMR.
Make the SMR a quarterly publication. Prices do not change that much - especially for autos and game used bats. That could be a once a year issue.
The other two issues during the quarter could be filled with articles, collector profiles and the like. I would also like to see affordably priced "classified" for small collectors.
There is no need for pop reports in the SMR. They can be viewed online.
As far as what the Cobb would trade for, I predict that it will probably reach double the SMR listing ($130,000 or more hammer price). But the issue is not one card; it is the entire set and all the cards listed, in the various grades. I doubt there is any collector or dealer, even the most experienced hand in Kahn's, who can confidently predict what sort of premium would attach from having a '56 Kahn's Gus Bell in any condition graded. That is not the sort of card which features in auctions, and the universe of people searching for it at one time is rather small (and many of them could not care less about graded cards).
Yes, there has been an active market for Kahn's as complete sets. However, there is very little high-profile activity of these cards as singles (Robinson, Clemente, et al. being exceptions). Will they react like '50s Topps, with a healthy premium for 7s and large premiums above that, like Wilson Wieners or Stahl-Meyer, with huge premiums in most grades, like most T-cards, with a healthy premium for grades 3-5 and large premiums for higher grades, or like '60s Topps, with a healthy premium for 8s and huge premiums above that? When these cards are sold as sets, the key condition is that of the main star(s), not of all the commons, which were significantly devalued in set sales. Ad far as what Beckett lists, is there any informed seller who actually offers tough popular regional issues at Beckett prices?
Also, looking at some other recently added sets gives me little confidence that PSA has chosen good forecasts. the '72 Kellogg's All Time Baseball Greats set is a prime example here. These cards were selling at shows at 1/3 of the price they were first listed in SMR for (and even lower on eBay).
Skycap - I don't even recall seeing a graded '60 Bell Brand (and maybe only 2 or 3 between '61 and '62 combined) on eBay. Granted, it's not one of my more common searches, but I check it occasionally. I only thought about this set being in SMR after I checked the pop. report after picking up a pair of low-grade '60s raw (including an Alston) very cheaply.
Nick
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Funny, I have "met" people on these very boards who have said the same thing in regards to getting rid of the monthly "pricing" and start with quarterly. Most of the SMR's that are in circulation are the ones that are part of the member benefits of PSA. The SMR is not TIME or PEOPLE Dav, and many (if not most) of graded card collectors do not go out every month and buy the SMR. There is not a need to, as SMR is the same virtually each and every month. I have seen the same number of SMR's for sale at the newstand basically every month. They do not sell, at least at the newstand I go to almost every day. Why don't the prices ever change in the SMR? Maybe because the graded card market does not change all that much in a 30 day period Dav.
Joe
Thanks for the feedback.
Here are a couple of quick comments:
1) When issues like Kahns and T3's are listed - they are listed ultra-conservatively to begin because we do not want to lead the market. For example, we started the T3 Cobb at $65k in PSA 8. I know that the owner of that card would get $100k plus for it easily right now. We merely list them to make people aware of the checklists and the fact that we do grade the issue. Over time they are corrected and adjusted. Some of you would very surprised how much "listing" an issue can affect that issue's profile. Even some of the top collectors refused to consider buying certain cards because they felt, if it was not listed, it must not be that important. Obviously, we could never list everything but the goal is centered on issue awareness - not leading the prices.
2) As far as the memorabilia sections are concerned, I think it is important to remember that PSA/DNA is a big part of our business and the fastest growing part by far. There are a ton of people out there who collect autographs and autographs only. Some of you like cards - that's fine but we are trying to appeal to more than just card people. Obviously the vast majority of SMR is devoted to cards - and it should be.
3) The most important point to remember is that our boards are primarily made up of advanced or semi-advanced collectors. The overwhelming majority of collectors out there are not - 99% of the hobby is not. So, you must understand that some of you assume that all collectors share your knowledge. If we were trying to cater to the top 1% of collectors with everything we did, we would have no business. We try to satisfy all types of collectors. Some articles are written for the advanced - some are not. Our message boards are made up, in reality, of hardcore collectors - a group that is very, very small in comparison to the majority of PSA supporters and potential supporters.
4) Also understand that, as SMR reaches more people, there are a lot of people who are picking it up for the very first time. There is absolutely no harm in having guide sections or lots of listings because we are trying to educate the masses about the hobby, what we do, etc.
In the end, I really do appreciate all your feedback - it does help a great deal. I can't promise that we will always agree or that certain requests will necessarily be met but, in the end, your feedback does have an impact.
Take care and back to the Chicago show!
Joe Orlando
PSA President
CEO, Collectors Universe, Inc.
why did pre-war hockey not get the ultra-conservative launch ??
edited to add: and I still can't seem to locate any PSA 9 1971 Greatest Moments for $150
Heck, I'll post a standing offer for any/all cards from this set in PSA 9 for $450 and it's good for 12 months. I will bond this offer if you like.
<< <i> Some of you would very surprised how much "listing" an issue can affect that issue's profile. Even some of the top collectors refused to consider buying certain cards because they felt, if it was not listed, it must not be that important.
..............remember that our boards are primarily made up of advanced or semi-advanced collectors. The overwhelming majority of collectors out there are not - 99% of the hobby is not.
Joe Orlando
PSA President >>
I completely agree with your first point and am thankful of all the recent SMR expansions for that very reason.
I don't really agree that 99% of the PSA consumer base and sportscard hobbyists are not fairly well versed. 40% maybe , but you'd be amazed at how many "advanced" collectors are out there.
nonetheless, I understand your point.
All in all I think the you are doing a fine job with the SMR.
A few sets need to be adjusted, but that's easy enough.
Pre-War hockey has been a mixed bag - admitted. We always ask around first before listing prices and that was the feedback we received. In the next few months, if nothing changes - Like I said earlier - we will make adjustments to reflect a more accurate market. If we made a mistake, it will be corrected.
Also, we try to adjust prices as best we can overall but can always use more feedback - please feel free to email me directly about any concerns - up or down - and I will do my best to make changes.
Take care,
Joe Orlando
CEO, Collectors Universe, Inc.
Joe, quarterly bat and auto info would be fine, and feel free to increase the coverage of Kellogg's cards!
Do I think the prices are way off at times? Definitely. But God knows keeping up with a market in such flux is a daunting task.
The real reason I like the SMR is because it gives me a great deal of insight into other sets and areas of the hobby I'm not as well versed. While I'm not an autograph or game-used bat collector...I enjoy learning about them just the same. In my opinion, the articles on topics that are a little different from the norm are the best part of the SMR.
Just my 2 cents.
Tom Papa
Tom, I like the SMR as well and enjoy reading the articles. I think there is a lot more potential however as a "collector mag" rather than focusing mainly on pricing every month. The SMR is a pricing guide and I see it as such. If there is a card that I want on eBay, Superior, or at a dealer's table/website that is selling for $150 and the SMR lists it at $100 I may still buy the card. I am not a collector who views the SMR as the final say on what dealers should sell the card for or what the eBay price is - there is one or two dealers that I buy from several times a year and the prices are usually 25-30 percent over the SMR "MSRP".
Answer: Based on the current format and content, I personally would not buy SMR on a monthly basis. I would, however, purchase the SMR a few times a year.
As a simple and generic example, here is what I would think would make the SMR better and more attractive to people that do not buy it on a monthly basis or are not getting it monthly from PSA:
Jan issue - PRICE GUIDE
Feb - collector profiles, market trends, cards to watch, etc
March - career of Joe Jay, Topps interview, shows, "remember when", etc
April - PRICE GUIDE
May - Dealer profiles, etc
and so on and so on ...
I believe that this would be successful financially for PSA, as there would still be advertising (maybe more) and it may encourage more people to either join PSA or purchase the SMR on a more regular basis.
I heard these all came from the "husband-of-tammy" collection.
<< <i>Tom, I like the SMR as well and enjoy reading the articles. I think there is a lot more potential however as a "collector mag" rather than focusing mainly on pricing every month. The SMR is a pricing guide and I see it as such. >>
1420sports,
Don't get me wrong, I agree with just about everything you've stated. I understand the SMR is a price guide to you. However, in my eyes the SMR is not strictly a price guide. Mainly? Maybe. But, I also see it as a collectors mag. It brings different views of the hobby, collectors, collections, etc to the table for some of us that are otherwise pigeon-holed in our own little collecting world.
Sometimes I find the articles interesting, other times I don't. I realize the ones I don't care for are probably interesting to someone else and I assume the articles I like maybe unimportant to others. The important part is the SMR is a forum to see other points of view/expert opinions in good detail (much like this board). That tells me it's also a collectors mag.
If any changes were to be made I would hope to see more "collector" articles and less pricing info since the prices changes are relatively insignificant from month to month. It would be great to see a monthly "collectors mag" from PSA, and a seperate quarterly price guide only mag. More articles and insight Joe!!!
Tom Papa
As far as making the SMR better, do what Alan Cowart did, as he had his 1967 set article published, and eMail Joe Orlando with any card prices that are off the mark...jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com