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A dilemma-----tell me how you feel about it.
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
I attended an auction Saturday and then traveled to help the local dealer at a show on Sunday. Though I'll give a show recap later, I wanted to pose a question or line of thought concerning a dilemma that some others may have encountered.
With the coin market, and subsequently prices, heating up seemingly by the day, it provides a tough decision for someone like myself who doesn't have deep pockets and needs to perhaps be a bit more judicious when deciding exactly how much is "too much" when making a purchse. Strangely, while traveling from the auction to the hotel for the show on Saturday evening, we discussed how quickly coins can vanish from inventory and how short supplies of PQ can be. When a collector finds something nice, should he snap it up?? The same goes for a dealer who needs inventory. So, the dilemma unfolds----how much is too much??
Where I find myself is trying to buy close to sheet but willing to pay more if the coin is solid and not average in appearance. I realize that overpaying too much today could be a problem down the road when prices slip and ordinary coins will be hurt the most. Not necessarily "non-highest grade" coins, but coins that just look ordinary. Nice, eye appealing pieces will always be easier to get rid of and harder to acquire. By the same token, when prices slip they should be cheaper, right??
So, how do you decide when it might be best to wait??
Al H.
With the coin market, and subsequently prices, heating up seemingly by the day, it provides a tough decision for someone like myself who doesn't have deep pockets and needs to perhaps be a bit more judicious when deciding exactly how much is "too much" when making a purchse. Strangely, while traveling from the auction to the hotel for the show on Saturday evening, we discussed how quickly coins can vanish from inventory and how short supplies of PQ can be. When a collector finds something nice, should he snap it up?? The same goes for a dealer who needs inventory. So, the dilemma unfolds----how much is too much??
Where I find myself is trying to buy close to sheet but willing to pay more if the coin is solid and not average in appearance. I realize that overpaying too much today could be a problem down the road when prices slip and ordinary coins will be hurt the most. Not necessarily "non-highest grade" coins, but coins that just look ordinary. Nice, eye appealing pieces will always be easier to get rid of and harder to acquire. By the same token, when prices slip they should be cheaper, right??
So, how do you decide when it might be best to wait??
Al H.
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Comments
Sheets work for common stuff. Tough to make money on that type of material. Collect it if you like, but don't expect huge dividends on say, ms/63 common date Morgans. It may make a nice, pleasing collection, but probably won't make you rich.
Don't assume that the coin market is going to falter. I honestly think things will only go up from where we are now, and don't see too much of a downside to most aspects of the market right now.
LSCC#1864
Ebay Stuff
The all there ones seem like a steal even at 10% over ask. Remember, these are equivalent to MS65 pieces from the 1989 era.
Those coins were 2-3x higher then. Yet the pseudo MS65 Barbers (low end) currently in the holders, are no bargain at bid as they are currently worth the same as they were in 1989. Back then they were 64's. I like the leverage for solid to PQ pieces that would still fit the MS65 label of yesteryear. Same goes for other grades. For 20% more, you get a coin at 40% of it's former high, rather 100% of its former high.
I'll step out for the real deal in series that are not blistering hot and have experienced solid run ups already.
roadrunner
you both kind of cut right to the meat of my position, that being that i'm not a dealer or someone who hopes to flip a coin in the short term for profit. all the same, i understand that the time may come when i choose to sell, either for need of money or perhaps for an upgrade. paying a big premium ends me as a loser to buy/sell spreads every time------in the short term.
with that said, i understand what you both mean, that buying PQ coins is always a winning choice.
al h.
In this type of market, with prices advancing, your supposed premium may be paid up in a few months or weeks. Paying 10% extra is starting to mean very little for nice nice coins. That becomes the base wholesale level in the very near future...often a few weeks later.
The price guides have such a wide range and it is hard, unless you are in the market every day, to know what a coin is really worth for the exact quality it is. It's why an MS65 Barber half can be worth $1900, $2100, $2300, $2500, $2700, and $3000. To get the best value you have to know which of these 6 yours is. I'd personally stay away from the first 3 levels for long term purposes. If you want to speculate short term that's fine for the lower levels. If you have a good eye, or a buyer with a good eye, you can get into your coins at no more than 5-10% over wholesale levels. If you buy the $2700 Barber for $2500 (happens all the time), then you make it up right away. Specialize, specialize, specialize. Then go out and find those pieces.
roadrunner
I use the "queasy" rule. When the price makes me queasy, I pass. I don't HAVE to purchase any coins. You have that feeling already. Take your shots where they count.
A friend.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
I can think of a dozen reasons not to have high capacity magazines, but it's the reasons I haven't thought about that I need them.
today. DON'T buy a coin that is being purchased primarily by speculators unless you
simply have to have it and then remember that you may never be able to get your
money back. When you here talk about what great investments such and such coins
are then it may well be a good time to start getting out. There are always underval-
ued and underappreciated coins and it will be a good time to get into them.
<< <i>So, how do you decide when it might be best to wait?? >>
The ones that don't jump out at you and say "buy me at any price" can wait.
Live Long and Prospect.
Short of getting into money to pay bills and finance your retirement spend what you can comfortably afford with an eye towards what other coins are available today with the same look and eye appeal. Even if you sell at a financial loss later that loss will be the price you've paid to have experienced the fun, enjoyment and privilege of owning the coin for however many years you own it. Then again if you have some knowledge and experience your willingness to pay a premium for a really nice coin will probably be reflected in the demand for the coin when it does become time to sell.
If an item is fairly generic and easily located, I will shop around for a good price, and can wait it out. For example if I want a gem common date Walker or Morgan or Buffalo for my type set, I can be selective and price-sensitive, because they are everywhere. But if I find a "special" coin, I will snap it up even if it costs a premium. e.g.:
On the other hand, if I have been looking for an item for a year or more without being able to locate even a single nice example, and then one comes along, I will pay up for it, even if the price is quite a bit higher than "list" One example is my icon half eagle, which I have still not seen it's equal offered for less.
Another example is this reeded edge half dollar with luster, again, have not seen it's equal, and she cost a big premium because, c'mon, where can you find another one that looks like this?
bottom line is, I'm proudest of the coins I had to pony up for, and my "bargains" are usually cheap for a reason.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry