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Where are prices for commons headed?
Buckwheat
Posts: 644 ✭
The recent auction for the pop 10 #128 1961 Repulski PSA 8 for $585 brings up this question. Repulski Auction
Certainly, for cards from the 50's to the 70's, the populations have been expanding rapidly the past 2 years. But the number os set collectors has kept the lower pop cards at high prices. In the 61 set, the higher pop cards have drifted from over SMR to maybe 2/3 of SMR in PSA 8 over the past year, while the PSA 9 cards have gone from 1-2X SMR to 2-4X SMR as they are now the low pop cards.
Demand for low pop cards can be very thin, and once the big bidders get them, the prices can fall rapidly. Then again, in sets like the 55, the cards seem to keep going fror much more than SMR.
Where do you think common prices are going to be in 1 yr and why?
Certainly, for cards from the 50's to the 70's, the populations have been expanding rapidly the past 2 years. But the number os set collectors has kept the lower pop cards at high prices. In the 61 set, the higher pop cards have drifted from over SMR to maybe 2/3 of SMR in PSA 8 over the past year, while the PSA 9 cards have gone from 1-2X SMR to 2-4X SMR as they are now the low pop cards.
Demand for low pop cards can be very thin, and once the big bidders get them, the prices can fall rapidly. Then again, in sets like the 55, the cards seem to keep going fror much more than SMR.
Where do you think common prices are going to be in 1 yr and why?
Ole Doctor Buck of the Popes of Hell
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I think the commons in higher pop will continue to soften in price over the next year and after. You can already see that on ebay auctions. I think, relatively speaking, the current low pops will stay fairly low and will continue to fetch well above SMR as long as there are set registry collectors continuing to fill out their sets. I would hope to see more new sets in vintage card years pop up on the registry. I don't think I have seen too many new sets lately. If the number of collectors pursuing registry sets stays static, then eventually all the cards will probably soften in price since the pops will continue to increase....law of supply and demand.
I hope all this rambling makes sense?!??
Collect primarily 1959-1963 Topps Baseball
set registry id Don Johnson Collection
ebay id truecollector14
meaning that many popular sets have a floor price..
i would guess that if a set gets "cold" the floor for many easy commons will be the grading fee and since PSA might charge more in the future it might even inflate the overall value of the set.
the prices of commons might go down or up but usually spending power in the hobby as a whole remains the same....so while 55 are hot right now and 72 are cold ..it might only be a matter of time when the opposite happens.
prices of commons unlike prices for stars will always be unpredictable long term.
Groucho Marx
1) The populations aren't that high to start with, average pop for the 53 set in PSA 8 might be 20-24. With maybe 25-30% of those tucked away in the big collector's(Fogel, Branca, etc) sets for good. That leaves very few cards to get recirculated out to new collector's.
2) There just aren't many good raw 50's cards out there that would grade an 8. For a year and a half I have combed many binders at big and small shows, and I have produced 1 1953 Topps PSA 8. And even the bid dealers who buy many personal collections, don't produce consistent 8's . They may buy 200 commons and get 30 8's. Certainly not enough supply for the demand.
3) Popularity. The 50's sets continue to be very popular with all age groups. 52 Topps will never go out of style. 53, 55, 56, 57 all have cult followings.
With that said, I want to add that 53 Topps PSA 8's are a horrible investment, you would be wise to just sell them all to me!!!
1953 Topps in PSA 8
1941 Playball in PSA 8.
1952-1955 Red Man cards in 7 and 8
1950 Bowman in PSA 8
With respect to the Repulski card, I tried to put in a bid of $1,001 and EBAY wouldn't let me. Just curious why that happened. It said "Continue with your bid" and I clicked on the box and it brought me back to the bid box. Never saw that happen before. Never got to place the bid. Had a feeling that Prime Eagle was at $1,000.
Remember that a lot of guys putting together high grade pre 1972 sets had a large amount of raw cards to begin with. What did those cards cost us? From pennies to a dollar in most cases. So when I need to buy or bid on a low pop card, I juts consider it as a dollar cost average transaction to complete the set.
Also, many long time collectors have been wondering when the prices are going to crash, and they haven't. I know a lot of collectors are putting together nice raw ex ex-mt sets, but those prices have gone nowheres in the past 5-10 years. My Dad always told me to buy quality and I have tried to do that.
Back in 1980, I used to attend a once a month Wednesday night club show in Syracuse NY. An older gentleman (God rest his soul) had the most amazing raw cards for sale every show. Right out of the pack and razor sharp. So one month he had five (5) 1958 Mantles for sale at $25 per. I asked him if he would take $100 for the lot and he agreed. When I got home my wife kicked my butt for buying ball cards when we had a 2 year old still in diapers! Well, about 4 years ago, they all graded PSA 9 and I sold them all for a hefty price each. Ask my wife now and she says "Why didn't you buy more cards from him, honey?"
We can't win, can we?????????????????? *LMAO*
So timing is a factor as well. But I also think the education of the people pursuing a given set is a factor. You can have people actively pursuing a set, but if they don't know what the really tough cards are then they'll treat them as just another common and bid accordingly. As people learn more about the issue they're collecting, they'll realize which are the tougher cards and bid more aggressively for those.
This summer when there was less competition, I picked up lots of low-pop stuff for a LOT less than I'd expected. Ken Henderson, Rob Gardner, Fred Kendall, and Expos Team all were bargains. The best example, I think, is the Jerry Grote. The PSA8 population on this card has been 6 for a long time. About 4-5 months ago, I picked one up on eBay for $67. This past weekend, another PSA8 example (the 7th PSA8) closed on eBay for $158.
Mike
If I knew the answer to the initial question posed in this thread, well....
It's all based upon supply and demand. The Registry gives us a good idea of the demand, but not all buyers are on the Registry, so ebay trends are a better gauge. Problem with ebay is 10 day auctions don't pick up all the demand either. I saw a 1963 #148-WS Game 7 card go for $169 last month. A week later, I bought a better one for $36. Go figure.
The supply side gets updated as the population reports get updated. Some overstatements occur with crackouts, but not as bad as the star cards that are resubmitted.
My guess is common prices have peaked for a while (except for the very low pops...'61 Repulski, '63 Schofield, '65 Smith, '67 Sims come to mind). Until a huge wave of new Registry entrants come on board, and they will someday, common prices are going to be soft. It's way cheaper to buy already graded 8's than to scour commons bins and submit to the grader of death. But I still do it and so do most of you.
Rob, as you know, I've recently passed on buying my next slew from you, hoping to find cheaper prices via ebay and the submission route. If your prices were 30-40% lower, I'd be drawn back to your site. If the ebay and submission route doesn't pan out for me, I'll be back anyway, but that will take a few months.
Nice topic though. We all like to speculate.
Billy
There are definitely reasons we scour card bins
While I'll definitely agree that in most cases it's cheaper to buy already-slabbed 8s, I've found that when I submit my own the quality is more consistent. Obviously this won't be a big concern for those who buy only cert numbers, but to me it's worth it sitting in front of card bins for hours at a time. The other thing is that when you buy an already-slabbed 8 you're getting only an 8. Sure when you submit your own, you're risking getting a 7 back - but at the same time, you're allowing yourself the potential to get 9s back.
Mike
I was referring to pre 1972. There is a ton of unopened post 1972 still out there in dealer inventory and collectors' hands. Both in wax, racks and cellos. Grading by GAI is starting to bring it out of the woodwork.
Hard today to find unopened 1950-1960's unopened material. It just isn't out there any more.
What we are now seeing is the high prices causing people to break and grade raw sets that previously they would never have considered doing. Even I am getting graded and breaking a high grade 1957 set. I just don't have the time to concentrate on more than 2 sets. And I still have a high grade 54 and 65 sets in the wings. Maybe when I retire I will concentrate on grading and listing them.
Please point me to the ton (or even half-ton) of unopened 72T and 75T (regular issue, not minis). I must be missing it at every show I go to or I must be talking to the wrong dealers.
Mike
Nick
Reap the whirlwind.
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I don't think I've submitted many potential 9's that come back 7. Maybe a 5 due to a surface wrinkle I missed. Not many potential raw 9's out there in the years I collect and the bins I search. I've noticed a HUGE dropoff in "sweet raw" between the Anaheim National ('00) and Chicago National ('02). I didn't even go to Atlantic City; why bother?
And I know I've never submtted a potential 7 that surprised me by coming back 9. Closest I came was a 1959 #399-Jackson PSA 7 I crossed to a SGC 92. That was a surprise. I posted the result on these boards and someone suggested I cross it back to PSA in hopes of a 9. [Not likely.]
And what are you going to do? Open it???? *laugh*
I have a guy right down the road from me who has 1958 and 1971 (series unknown) unopened Topps BB wax cases. I have tried to get them for years. He won't budge. He also lots of late 70's wax cases, racks, cellos, etc. He owns a conveneience store and is a 1951 Bowman collector. Will sell it when he feels like it. The fact that he could retire many times over on those cases has no impact on him.
In fact, there is a dealer in Schenectady NY who had so much late 70s and 80s wax, etc that his cellar floor sunk 4 inches! I knew about it becuz he called my best friend (a mason) to fix the cellar floor. I saw it with my own eyes. Granted, a lot of it was 1987 Topps, but there was 1977-1987 Topps/Fleer/Donruss. He bought it every year, kept what didn't sell, and could care less if he sold it or not. Haven't seen him in a couple of years, but bet my bottom dollar he still has a good chunk of it.
I have met many collectors and speculators who over the years have bought up old store inventory and are sitting on it. If you watch SCD (well, not so anymore), you can tell what years are out there from the buy ads for guys like Murphy. They have a good feel for what's in hiding. Recently, there have been sales of 1972 wax and 1975 vending runs. Mastro had some 1972s in their auction (were displayed at Atlantic City). Another dealer had piles of raw 75 commons on his table for $2 or $3 each. They were being bought up by set guys or dealers specualting on getting PSA 9s or 10s.
They are out there. You just have to be at the right place at the right time to get the deal.
Your post generally agrees with what I've seen in unopened stuff -
- Anything from 1978 to present is generally really available.
- 1976 and 1977s are available, but definitely much harder - and presumably almost entirely in wax or vending. If you find 77 rack packs, I'm sure downgoesfrazier will be in touch.
- Anything 1975 and earlier is a lot tougher. Certainly there's some out there, but I would question whether one could say "tons".
Mike
The secret Ive found to raw stuff is the smaller weekend shows. Sometimes there will be 1 or 2 dealers who have vintage along with their modern offerings. They are thrilled to sell you commons and you can find some PSA 8 quality or better 60's material. These dealers mostly deal in modern...so they are not in the business of submitting the cant miss commons to PSA and leaving the sliders in the binders.
<< <i>I've noticed a HUGE dropoff in "sweet raw" between the Anaheim National ('00) and Chicago National ('02). I didn't even go to Atlantic City; why bother? >>
The sweet raw is out there TG...but not in the binders for guys like us to cherry-pick anymore. Those bad boys are going straight to eBay.