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What's hot and what's not in gold?
RYK
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Below is latest newsletter from Doug Winter (www.raregoldcoins.com):
Many readers of this newsletter find our annual "What's Hot/What's Not" to be their favorite feature. In a few of the earlier editions, it was hard to select three or four areas of the U.S. gold coin market that were truly classifiable as "hot." In late 2003/early 2004, it's hard to think of any areas that are "cold." This year, we could almost call this feature "What's Really Hot and What's Just Pretty Hot."
2003 was an excellent year for the United States gold coin market. The price of gold rose close to $100 per ounce, making most generic issues worth considerably more than they have been in some time. A number of new collectors came into the market and many high quality coins were sold as these individuals flexed their buying muscles.
To me, one of the most startling trends of 2003 was the lack of fresh material. Unlike recent years, when such great collections as Bass, Pittman, North Georgia and Lang were sold, the auctions of 2003 did not contain any truly great gold holdings. There were certainly some very interesting single coins or smaller collections sold but nothing memorable.
The lack of good material coupled with a strong level of demand led to a rise in prices in 2003. Not including bullion-related and/or generic issues, the typical rare date gold coin rose an estimated 10-20% in 2003. Compared to some other areas in the market, this is not all that strong but compared with the slow years of 2000-2001, these figures are very impressive. My gut feeling is that both Trends and the Greysheet will see some strong price increases in 2004.
WHAT'S HOT
Early Gold, Especially pre-1800 Issues: There's really never a time that early gold isn't a strong performer. But the level of demand for nearly any gold coin dated prior to 1834 is as strong as I can ever remember it. This is especially true for pre-1800 issues.
In the past year, popular 18th century coins such as 1796 No Stars quarter eagles, 1795 half eagles and 1795 eagles have shown dramatic increases in value. I still think they are fairly priced, due to their age, attractive designs and history. But I'm starting to wonder a little bit about coins like the 1799 eagle (the 18th century gold equivalent of an 1881-S silver dollar). Just two years ago, you could buy a nice AU 1799 eagle for $8,000-10,000. Today, the same quality coin might cost you $12,000-14,000. At what point is this coin officially "pricey?"
There are still plenty of great values in the early gold series. Large Size and Reduced Size Capped Head quarter eagles (struck from 1821 to 1827 and 1829 to 1834, respectively) are overlooked and very underpriced. Common dates Large Size Capped Head Left half eagles (dates such as the 1813, 1814/3, 1818 and 1820) are wonderful values in the About Uncirculated-50 to Mint State-62 grade range.
Stand Alone One-Year Types: As I have discussed in previous newsletters and articles, a new trend in rare date gold collecting is towards assembling type sets as opposed to complete date sets. This means that one-year issues such as 1855-C and 1855-D gold dollars, 1854-O and 1854-D three dollar gold pieces and 1879-O double eagles (plus many others) have experienced an extremely strong surge in demand.
I see no reason why these coins will not continue to be very strong performers in the coming years. When you stop and think about it, why shouldn't any low mintage coin that is significant as the only issue of its design be held in very high regard?
Generally speaking, many of these stand alone issues are less rare than their mintage figures suggest due to the fact that they were saved as souvenirs. But the strong level of demand associated with them means that any nice example that comes onto the market will sell quickly, provided it is properly priced.
While I do not tout buying any coin as an investment, I will say that even if you do not specialize in 19th century gold, it would be wise to purchase a few coins like an 1839-O quarter eagle or an 1838-C half eagle to "put away" for a while as I personally see a very bright future for these items.
Better Date St. Gaudens Double Eagles: After a number of years of dormancy, the market for scarce and rare date St. Gaudens double eagles has picked up considerably. When you consider that Saints have been the backbone of the 20th century gold market for many years, it is no surprise that demand is up.
I first started noticing an increased level of demand for dated Saints about six to nine months ago. I had to fill an order for a few of the tough late date issues (specifically the 1929, 1930, 1931 and 1932 Philadelphia coins). These are expensive coins ($20,000-30,000+ for average quality Mint State pieces) but you could generally find them at any major show. Suddenly, none of the dealers who usually stocked them had any available. And the few coins that appeared at auction brought well over published Bid levels.
I have noticed a particularly high degree of interest in Saints in two areas: finest known/highest graded pieces and "sensible" grades of the better dates. The first area is pretty self-explanatory. People are putting together Registry Sets of nearly everything else so why not Saints? There have not been many truly special pieces available in the past year but the few that were sold did bring extremely strong prices, both at auction and via private treaty sale. The second area refers to dates like the 1924-D. An MS-64 is currently worth $10,000 or so while an MS-65 (if you can find one) is worth well over $50,000. To many people, a properly graded MS-64 seems like very good value at current levels.
Runners-Up: Other areas that are currently very hot include New Orleans gold, all Charlotte and Dahlonega gold priced below $10,000, Type One double eagles, Stellas and Indian Head quarter eagles.
WHAT'S NOT
Better Date Indian Head Eagles: In the 1980's and early 1990's, there were many collectors assembling sets of high quality Indian Head eagles. Unfortunately, many of these collectors either stopped acquiring coins or decided to sell at around the same. As a result, this is an area of the market that has been dormant for some time.
This is starting to change somewhat and the most recent CDN Monthly Summary (October 2003) shows some price increases for better date Indian Head eagles in Mint State-63 through Mint State-65 grades.
Given the great beauty of the Indian Head eagle design, it seems highly possible that this series could be "rediscovered" as Saint Gaudens double eagles have been in the last year.
High Grade No Motto Philadelphia Issues: By all rights, high grade (in this case Mint State-60 and better) Philadelphia half eagles and eagles from the 1840's should be reasonably popular. They are scarce, attractive and essential for a type set. But for a variety of reasons, these coins, with selected exceptions, remain unloved by collectors.
Why does no one care? For many of these dates, collectors have the option of buying nice AU coins for very reasonable price levels. There has never been a book written specifically on Philadelphia No Motto gold and it has never really been pushed by any of the larger marketing or retail firms.
The more I look at this series, the more I think that it is an interesting "play" for the contrarian. Unlike the branch mint issues from this era, the quality seen on many of these Philadelphia issues is excellent and it is possible to find attractive, original coins with much greater ease than for, say, Charlotte or Dahlonega coinage.
Classic Head Gold Coinage: Here's another area that isn't really unpopular so much as it seems to have somehow fallen through the cracks. Given the fact that these coins have a nice design, are affordable and have numerous major varieties, I find it very surprising that there is not a legion of dedicated Classic Head gold collectors.
Not all Classic Heads are overlooked. The mintmarked issues are exceptionally popular and have risen in value in the past year. But nice type coin Classic Head gold coinage in higher grades has stayed flat.
As an example, a nice Mint State-63 Classic Head half eagle can be purchased in the $6,000-7,000 range which I think is very good value. A similarly graded quarter eagle of this design is currently worth $5,000-6,000.
An interesting variety set of Classic Head coinage can be assembled in Extremely Fine and About Uncirculated grades for very reasonable price levels. I would recommend that the collector interested in these varieties purchase the Bass catalogs, which contained many of them and which described these in detail.
Many readers of this newsletter find our annual "What's Hot/What's Not" to be their favorite feature. In a few of the earlier editions, it was hard to select three or four areas of the U.S. gold coin market that were truly classifiable as "hot." In late 2003/early 2004, it's hard to think of any areas that are "cold." This year, we could almost call this feature "What's Really Hot and What's Just Pretty Hot."
2003 was an excellent year for the United States gold coin market. The price of gold rose close to $100 per ounce, making most generic issues worth considerably more than they have been in some time. A number of new collectors came into the market and many high quality coins were sold as these individuals flexed their buying muscles.
To me, one of the most startling trends of 2003 was the lack of fresh material. Unlike recent years, when such great collections as Bass, Pittman, North Georgia and Lang were sold, the auctions of 2003 did not contain any truly great gold holdings. There were certainly some very interesting single coins or smaller collections sold but nothing memorable.
The lack of good material coupled with a strong level of demand led to a rise in prices in 2003. Not including bullion-related and/or generic issues, the typical rare date gold coin rose an estimated 10-20% in 2003. Compared to some other areas in the market, this is not all that strong but compared with the slow years of 2000-2001, these figures are very impressive. My gut feeling is that both Trends and the Greysheet will see some strong price increases in 2004.
WHAT'S HOT
Early Gold, Especially pre-1800 Issues: There's really never a time that early gold isn't a strong performer. But the level of demand for nearly any gold coin dated prior to 1834 is as strong as I can ever remember it. This is especially true for pre-1800 issues.
In the past year, popular 18th century coins such as 1796 No Stars quarter eagles, 1795 half eagles and 1795 eagles have shown dramatic increases in value. I still think they are fairly priced, due to their age, attractive designs and history. But I'm starting to wonder a little bit about coins like the 1799 eagle (the 18th century gold equivalent of an 1881-S silver dollar). Just two years ago, you could buy a nice AU 1799 eagle for $8,000-10,000. Today, the same quality coin might cost you $12,000-14,000. At what point is this coin officially "pricey?"
There are still plenty of great values in the early gold series. Large Size and Reduced Size Capped Head quarter eagles (struck from 1821 to 1827 and 1829 to 1834, respectively) are overlooked and very underpriced. Common dates Large Size Capped Head Left half eagles (dates such as the 1813, 1814/3, 1818 and 1820) are wonderful values in the About Uncirculated-50 to Mint State-62 grade range.
Stand Alone One-Year Types: As I have discussed in previous newsletters and articles, a new trend in rare date gold collecting is towards assembling type sets as opposed to complete date sets. This means that one-year issues such as 1855-C and 1855-D gold dollars, 1854-O and 1854-D three dollar gold pieces and 1879-O double eagles (plus many others) have experienced an extremely strong surge in demand.
I see no reason why these coins will not continue to be very strong performers in the coming years. When you stop and think about it, why shouldn't any low mintage coin that is significant as the only issue of its design be held in very high regard?
Generally speaking, many of these stand alone issues are less rare than their mintage figures suggest due to the fact that they were saved as souvenirs. But the strong level of demand associated with them means that any nice example that comes onto the market will sell quickly, provided it is properly priced.
While I do not tout buying any coin as an investment, I will say that even if you do not specialize in 19th century gold, it would be wise to purchase a few coins like an 1839-O quarter eagle or an 1838-C half eagle to "put away" for a while as I personally see a very bright future for these items.
Better Date St. Gaudens Double Eagles: After a number of years of dormancy, the market for scarce and rare date St. Gaudens double eagles has picked up considerably. When you consider that Saints have been the backbone of the 20th century gold market for many years, it is no surprise that demand is up.
I first started noticing an increased level of demand for dated Saints about six to nine months ago. I had to fill an order for a few of the tough late date issues (specifically the 1929, 1930, 1931 and 1932 Philadelphia coins). These are expensive coins ($20,000-30,000+ for average quality Mint State pieces) but you could generally find them at any major show. Suddenly, none of the dealers who usually stocked them had any available. And the few coins that appeared at auction brought well over published Bid levels.
I have noticed a particularly high degree of interest in Saints in two areas: finest known/highest graded pieces and "sensible" grades of the better dates. The first area is pretty self-explanatory. People are putting together Registry Sets of nearly everything else so why not Saints? There have not been many truly special pieces available in the past year but the few that were sold did bring extremely strong prices, both at auction and via private treaty sale. The second area refers to dates like the 1924-D. An MS-64 is currently worth $10,000 or so while an MS-65 (if you can find one) is worth well over $50,000. To many people, a properly graded MS-64 seems like very good value at current levels.
Runners-Up: Other areas that are currently very hot include New Orleans gold, all Charlotte and Dahlonega gold priced below $10,000, Type One double eagles, Stellas and Indian Head quarter eagles.
WHAT'S NOT
Better Date Indian Head Eagles: In the 1980's and early 1990's, there were many collectors assembling sets of high quality Indian Head eagles. Unfortunately, many of these collectors either stopped acquiring coins or decided to sell at around the same. As a result, this is an area of the market that has been dormant for some time.
This is starting to change somewhat and the most recent CDN Monthly Summary (October 2003) shows some price increases for better date Indian Head eagles in Mint State-63 through Mint State-65 grades.
Given the great beauty of the Indian Head eagle design, it seems highly possible that this series could be "rediscovered" as Saint Gaudens double eagles have been in the last year.
High Grade No Motto Philadelphia Issues: By all rights, high grade (in this case Mint State-60 and better) Philadelphia half eagles and eagles from the 1840's should be reasonably popular. They are scarce, attractive and essential for a type set. But for a variety of reasons, these coins, with selected exceptions, remain unloved by collectors.
Why does no one care? For many of these dates, collectors have the option of buying nice AU coins for very reasonable price levels. There has never been a book written specifically on Philadelphia No Motto gold and it has never really been pushed by any of the larger marketing or retail firms.
The more I look at this series, the more I think that it is an interesting "play" for the contrarian. Unlike the branch mint issues from this era, the quality seen on many of these Philadelphia issues is excellent and it is possible to find attractive, original coins with much greater ease than for, say, Charlotte or Dahlonega coinage.
Classic Head Gold Coinage: Here's another area that isn't really unpopular so much as it seems to have somehow fallen through the cracks. Given the fact that these coins have a nice design, are affordable and have numerous major varieties, I find it very surprising that there is not a legion of dedicated Classic Head gold collectors.
Not all Classic Heads are overlooked. The mintmarked issues are exceptionally popular and have risen in value in the past year. But nice type coin Classic Head gold coinage in higher grades has stayed flat.
As an example, a nice Mint State-63 Classic Head half eagle can be purchased in the $6,000-7,000 range which I think is very good value. A similarly graded quarter eagle of this design is currently worth $5,000-6,000.
An interesting variety set of Classic Head coinage can be assembled in Extremely Fine and About Uncirculated grades for very reasonable price levels. I would recommend that the collector interested in these varieties purchase the Bass catalogs, which contained many of them and which described these in detail.
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