General question about Set Registry

Buccaneer

I am a relative newcomber in the graded card market and I have a general question about set registries. I studied many of the registries listed at this site and I am curious about the cost involved (and return on investment). For example, take my favorite set - 1970 Topps baseball. There are at least 2 completed sets of all graded cards (PSA 8+), if I recall. Now assuming the collector had a real nice set and got each of the cards graded or had to acquire previously graded cards. Either way, a quick calculation shows 720 x $8 = $5,760 just to get all of the cards graded plus the costs of acquiring needed cards. I know full well the joy of trying to complete a set and can imagine the thrill of doing something as extraordinary as this. But that is still a great deal of money to achieve that goal. What now? Can a set like this be sold for $10,000+? Can these be investments or are they just elite collections?

I am not disparging any of these sets, I truly find them amazing and awesome. But I also look at the difficulty for someone like me to try to do the same with any vintage sets.

Thanks,
Steve

Tipem

Steve,

Welcome to the boards.If your PM is turned on,send this question to Virtualizard.He is the resident expert on the 70 set.I am sure that he can give you a complete breakdown on this set as well as sell you some cards if you want.


vic

Vargha

For many sets of the 1970's you are better off buying as much as 50% or more of the set in PSA 8 holders than taking the risk yourself. Your return on investment will be heavily dependent upon what you paid for the cards and what you get from selling them.(market timing is a key factor in both). Now this answer is so basic, it really merits a "duh" response. But, insistence on having the best set and all of the 1/1's and 1/2's as they hit the market will likely net you a loss. A super keen eye and lots of time in submitting raw cards can net you a good return as well as a "bottom-feeding" approach for the 50-60% of cards that might be purchased for less than grading fees. Purchases of larger lots tend to net the best gains. Onesey-twosey purchasing of cards, including the associated shipping fees will kill you on a 500-700 card set.

Finally, selling soon after you have made a purchase or selling in chunks rather than individual cards will typically net you a lower return. This is true, especially in vintage sets. The bottom line is to never spend more than you can afford to lose and to treat it as a hobby first and an investment second.

braves72078

Vargha

the best advice i have seen in awhile

Buccaneer

Thanks, vargha. I don't know the following terminology

<< <i>all of the 1/1's and 1/2's >>

Vargha

"One of only one" or "one of only two". It refers to the scarcity on the PSA Population (Pop.) Report. A card that is the highest known graded example of a certain card # is typically highly desirable if there are only one or two (or maybe ten if there is enough demand) known examples for that grade. High-end collectors, particularly set collectors, will usually pay a significant premium to own the card. The danger in such purchases when there is a large amount of raw cards still unsubmitted is that the high $ value of that card may be at the point that the first one hits the market.

Buccaneer

<< <i>For many sets of the 1970's you are better off buying as much as 50% or more of the set in PSA 8 holders than taking the risk yourself. >>



I'm beginning to see this myself, as I try to judge which I cards I have that can be graded an 8. How does this hold for sets in the 1960s or even 1950s?

Also, can you expand upon the "bottom feeding" approach?

Thanks.

Vargha

Bottom feeding means placing fairly low bids on high pop. commoms and even superstars. This coupled with an agressive (but educated) approach towards acquiring the more difficult cards will give you the best results in a gradual building of a set. It requires patience, time and an independent tracking of sales results and frequency (i.e. you). That is why so few people are able to maintain a consistent approach like this.

If money allows, there is something to be said for judicious purchases of complete sets and even large lots, with upgrading as the reasoned approach listed above allows for. The system is not perfect and new bidders, team and player collectors as well as crazy people with no regard for money spent can throw many a wrench into it. Emotionalism cannot be a factor in such an approach. The exception being that when you are down to your last few cards, sometimes it is best to bid or pay high just to get the darned thing over with.

The53Kid

Steve,

Welcome. I'd like to answer the first of your questions, and Vargha can talk about bottom feeding.

As you move back into the 50's material you can't apply the same concepts. The reasons are multifold. First commons in the 50's go for alot more than commons in the 70's. For example 53 Topps commons start at $85, in PSA 8, and 56's are around $50. So you are well above the average price for grading fees. In this case you are going to get a better rate of return by buying a card raw for $15-20, and add in the grading fee $8-10. If you get a 7 you are a little ahead, if you get an 8, sell it to me.

Also the population of 50's material that is graded is less than 70's sets, especially if you look at pop stats for the stars. So you are in the whole supply demand battle with other collectors. These leads to very few commons in the sets to bottom feed off of. Or in other terms very few cards that don't get bid up to the book value. It is almost impossible to get a 53 Topps PSA 8 for less than 80% of book.

I do think the 70's sets are daunting tasks, but at least you have plenty of material out there to work with. By watching the ebay trends and following the Q&A here you should quickly gain a vast amount of knowledge on your choosen set.

Enjoy the ride,
Bruce

Vargha

Just to clarify, "bottom feeding" is relative. While I might be able to purchase 300 out of 660 1975 Topps PSA 8 cards at an average of 65% of SMR, I might be able to get 60-90 out of 324 1951 Bowman cards at an average of 80% of SMR. Remember, research is the key. Certainly, between the pop. reports and the missing cards of the top collectors, you can get an initial idea of what the playing field will be like. In building sets, there have been many times when I rued not winning a card only to win it for much less at a later date as well as times when I thought that somebody severely "overpaid" for a card only later to wish that it had been me.

PSAtan

There are a few things you can be sure of -

1) You will spend more than you plan to.
2) You will never know how your set will sell. It is always hindsight.
3) 700 card sets in PSA 8 are mammoth endeavors.
4) Buying slabbed cards may cost extra but over the long run it's cost effective. Purchasing raw cards means taking the chance of alterations, PSA grading inconsistencies and grading costs.


Pick the year you like best because it has to be a labor of love. As others have said, this is a hobby. It is not an investment. You might come out ahead but the chances are you won't.

There are a lot of people on this site that will help you. Collectors admire other purists. They will be your greatest resource. Formulate a plan before you start haphazardly buying. I've spent unnecessary money because I had no idea how to go about achieving my goal. There's a thought process behind set building. The more you talk to people that have done it, the more enjoyable the process. Also, sets don't have to be finished in two weeks. This might be something you do over four years. Always track pop reports to see if certain card values might be coming down due to new slabs.

Best of luck,

Satan

Buccaneer

vic, David, Bruce, Satan: Thank you all for your welcome and your thoughtful replies. I have been out of the hobby/business for 15 years and there is so much to learn. It feels like 1983 again when I got back into the business after my first hiatus. The cards and packs that I saw at shows in SoCal and Cincy during that period makes my head spin knowing what I could have done with them now. Back then, the supplies (and bargains) were high but my money was low. Now it's the opposite. Oh well.

shouldabeena10

Buccaneer,

The above posts sound great, but the honest truth is.... it will never work. 6 months from now, you will be sitting at your computer at 3am in the morning; stereo cranked up, carpel tunnel setting in, firing off 200% SMR shots at every blank you have left on your checklist. You'll be cussing at the snipers, and laughing wildly at your small victories as your empire grows.

Your UPS man will start giving you annoyed looks as he lugs packages to your door everyday. Your closets will start to fill up with boxes full of cards. You'll be late for work everyday, as you have to check the new pop counts. Your e-mail in-box will overflow, and you'll spend countless hours trying to figure out a way to beat the system.

Do yourself a favor. Run now, while you still have a chance. Forget you ever saw these message boards and leave this crazy world behind you. Take up a different hobby, something much less expensive.... like painting or sea shell collecting.

Heed my warning, young Buccaneer, and you will live a much happier life and ...... oh, sorry I have to go now... the UPS man needs me to sign something at the door ....

GoSoxBoSox

shouldabeena10,

Great post!! We are sick aren't we? Unfortunately you speak a lot of truth.

I find giving the USPS mailman (Chris, in my case) a nice christmas bonus goes a long way. He's now more interested in what I get than I am. He's the sick person.

mrc32

shouldabeena10- Great POST

Mykabota

Shouldabeena10,
I have to delete my confirmed current high, outbid notice and the usual end result “item not won” emails in blocks. I need that sniping program. Thanks for the laughs.
Michael

FB

Buccaneer,

I think that the advice that you've received so far has been pretty "dead on" and I think that I can expound a little bit more on strategy... and give you a little more background on the types of set builders that you'll run in to on eBay and the registry.

1) The "Gotta Have the Best" collector is the one that will by the best of each example available. As Vargha explained - if a card has a PSA population of 1 in PSA 9, 0 - 10's and 35 - 8's, then this is the type of card that the GHB collector will throw down big money for. If you're budget conscious, then this isn't you.

2) The "Casual Collector" will buy a card here and there as the mood strikes them. They may gravitate towards rookies, or World Series cards, or League Leaders as they slowly build their sets. This way requires a lot of patience and you can still get whacked when you add $3 to $5 shipping to each card purchased. I wouldn't recommend this way for a 700 card set.

3) The "Bottom Feeder" is the person who is looking to pick up cards cheaply, is patient and has the will to let cards go if they rise above your set bid. I will take this even one step further because I do bottom feed on some sets. Its best to wait for dealers who load up large volumes of cards that you might need in order to keep the shipping costs down. Dealers like bbcexchange, rushoeless, dslsports, etc will throw 50 to 100 or more cards from a set up at a time and bottom feeding becomes cheaper because there is so much available and the people bidding only have so much money available.

4) The "Team and/or Player" collectors are going to drive you batty from time to time. These are the folks that will make it impossible to buy either Yankees or Mets or Cubs or Red Sox at your bottom feeding price because they need them for their 30 card team set. They won't make a big dent in your collecting, but they can leave you wondering why a 1970 PSA 8 Glenn Beckert just went for $45.

5) The "Submitter/Collector" are the folks who are generally the most budget conscious and use the excess submissions to sell on eBay and help offset the cards that they've had to buy on eBay. If you're looking to save money - as David has already said - this is the way to go. Its tough and frustrating, but if you have a good eye and can actually handle the cards before buying them - its the best way to go.
(if you live in an area of the country where you don't get many card shows - this is very, very tough because you can't count on eBay to supply high quality raw material very often)

You can also save yourself a ton of money by educating yourself about the set that you're collecting. Get access to the Population report and learn which cards are relatively tough (low pop) and which ones are so easy that they should be used as drink coasters - then gauge your bids accordingly.

As you move up in the rankings, learn what cards other collectors on that set are still missing. It might give you an idea about now much those cards might cost you at the moment. Some times its just better to keep your standard bid and grab the next one or the next one rather than pay 5x for one. People get crazy as they near the finish line.

Best of luck to you! I' currently sitting at #4 or #5 on the 70 registry at 78% complete. I think that its going to take a back seat until I make some more progress on the 71 set. Take care and see you on the boards!!!

Oh!!! and the masses are right. Virtualizard should drop in soon. He just sold his 70 set 98% complete for around $14k or so.

Buccaneer

shouldabeena10: To use the common venacular - LOL. Esp. the "young" Buccaneer part (I started collecting in 1968).

FB: Thank you very much. In my studying the past 2 months on eBay, Sports Market Guide, PSA web site and talking with dealers, I still don't know the direction I want to take. I do have some quality cards that I can sell (once graded) but beyond that...? Sets were what collectors did in the old days but now it seems that focus is all on Mantle PSA 9 cards (or similar). I will continue to look and learn, esp. digging into the Pop reports. Good luck on your sets, those were exactly my years as well (plus 1960).

FB

Steve,

Keep looking and learning...

I've been at this for 3 years (the graded card game) with 25 years of on and off raw collecting and finally feel like its starting to come into focus. I finally:

know what sets I want to collect (64 to 72 Topps)

know how much I'm willing to pay for most cards

know that I prefer the search for raw cards and rush that I feel when the PSA invoice pops than buying everything on eBay.

know that I won't chase cards to unwarranted prices

have no regrets when I lose auctions

don't have to have the best set

know that I want this collection to sell for more than I paid for it - so I've got to watch what I pay!

Hopefully, you can figure it out quicker than some of the rest of us have!!!