If PSA were to close its doors. How would that

boggs301012

affect the prices on the cards that are graded? Would it have a negative impact? And prices would drop or would they hold there value?
I think the prices would take a sharp drop right away. And many months later go back up , but below current levels. I ask because I truly believe PSA grading will go under.


James

qualitycards

"affect the prices on the cards that are graded? Would it have a negative impact? And prices would drop or would they hold there value?
I think the prices would take a sharp drop right away. And many months later go back up , but below current levels. I ask because I truly believe PSA grading will go under"

BOGGS - Within time, we will all "go under" - Why actually worry about it. Especially considering you collect graded cards of a player that you don't plan on selling...jay

braves72078

Boggs,

This is an interesting topic. I know that i used to submitt only for resale. I know only collect Cowboys, Braves, HOF rc's, and a few other All-Time sets (mainly football).

I think Jay offers a good viewpoint. If you only collect cards for your personal enjoyment, I would not worry alot about it because in the worst case scenario you have all your cards in nice holders.

I know for a fact that since i stopped TRYING to make $$$$$ with cards the hobby is much more enjoyable. I am not one of the "big guys" that seem to find MINT vintage cards, so i focuis on the cards that i enjoy and remember from my youth.

Braves

bongobell

James,
Interesting point, just curious as to your reasoning behind PSA "going under". Do you believe that in time all of the grading companies will close down due to mass production of modern issues? Will new companies spring up and continue grading cards?
I suppose many of us are investors in PSA whether we like it or not. Once you have so many graded cards then you have some financial commitment to the grading services.
This alleged grading of trimmed cards worries me as this could easily cause collectors to lose faith in the integrity of grading companies. The "wiwag" scandal could easily have undermined the whole structure based around card grading. We will just have to wait and see what is around the corner.
At the end of the day though I believe most of us collect cards for pleasure and the sheer enjoyment of the hobby and if the grading companies do go bust or close down then we still have our cards. Whether or not the cards are worth more or less down the road is pretty much irrevelant if we continue to collect for pleasure rather than investment don't you think?
Just my thoughts,
Nick

qualitycards

<< <i>I would not worry alot about it because in the worst case scenario you have all your cards in nice holders. >>


BRAVES72078 - That is an excellent point. IF your grading company of choice goes out of business. You still have the cards inside the holders. And thats where the value lies. Mantle cards sold well before grading was in vogue and he wil still be in demand inside a grading companies slab or in a top loader. Same with the other stars and vintage cards that have a value. The only preceived problem I see is if a card is worth so much more because it is slabbed like the newer modern cards that are worth big bucks in a 10 holder but almost nothing in an 8...jay

NHLfightguy

I think value will stay the same or maybe even increase. People would want cards in PSA slabs, and being that the populations in psa slabs won't increase, what is out there now will be it.....

boggs301012

Jay..others


Many reasons I think PSA will go under and several other Card Co's. The market has slowed down submissions are way off from what I can tell. Vintage is only going to slow down. And PSA requiring membership ( my opinion it was to help Revenue) and starting other services like PSA ticket grading. They are desperate to generate Revenue. And PSA must spend major money on reholdering cards that are damaged , scratched etc. I havent had an order yet with out sending back 20% of the order. Competition is another reason, and if they raise prices when others havent it tells me operating exspenses is affecting them. And even turn around times is now days, could be they improved but I dont think so. I believe orders are way off. If it wasnt for the registry they may have already taken the plunge. There are others Signs ...sorry my Brain isnt full functional I have to get up at 4 am to go into work.. three hours wasnt enuff sleep.

Regarding my collection, Yes I collect BOGGS it is what I collect ofr fun. But I collect other PSA cards as well. I have never shared that info befor, I own much more. Mainly Rookies in PSA form. I have 4 ebays ID's


James

interchanges

I personally don't think PSA will be closing its doors in our lifetime.
If they have to lay people off...etc...that's one thing.
Every business suffers in lax economy. But close its doors?

Ticket grading: I great idea that will probably spur interest, and make them money.
They spend major money reholdering their mistakes? I would think it'd be considered peanuts.
And as far as competition, if SCD and Beckett can afford to keep their doors open, I don't see a problem at Newport Beach.

Vargha

Certainly someone would buy the rights to the name and process, even if PSA went under. A "flip-side" scenario is that maybe PSA cards would go up in value if other cards were perceived not to have "value" by comparison.

1420sports

I do not think about it let alone worry about it. PSA is now grading coins, cutouts, etc. Plus there is still a lot of material out there.

But if they did go down, I could not imagine a drop in price.

OhioTaz

James

That is an interesting post. I have no personal knowledge about the financial viability of PSA but would offer the following.

(1) I have recently seen posts suggesting that submissions have greatly increased lately so not everyone agrees with your premise.
(2) All companies are looking for ways to increase revenues. A company that isn't is one that is going to die for certain. I would say that grading tickets, etc. is a sign of health, not weakness.
(3) I would not assume that vintage will necessarily slow. As collectors find PSA 8's or 9's becoming more scarce, PSA 7's (still often very nice cards) may rise in value and we may see more submissions of < NRMT cards.
(4) I don't know for sure but I would be shocked if PSA had more than $1.50 invested in a card holder + labor. I assume that paying the grader + advertising is the largest % of the cost. The holder bought in bulk is 10 cents max.
(5) I am not sure that there is significant competition with PSA. I would not consider PRO, etc to be competition. SGC is but that assumes THEY survive.
(6) Raising prices when others don't is a sign of true STRENGTH for a company. Sales are a sign of weakness. When you see a company marking down merchandise, you can almost bank it that they are in trouble.

Greg

MyBigToe

Take a look at SBC graded cards now and see what a negative impact going out of business has on a graded card. If PSA were to close its doors, which is highly unlikely, there are still other grading choices. One or more of the existing grading companies would step up to fill PSA's shoes.

shouldabeena10

James

I think a lot of what happens would depend on the last ditch efforts of the company to stay alive.

Let's assume that some day all the vintage cards worth grading, get graded..... and everyone has crossed over most of their holders from the other defunct companies. All that's left is the newer stuff, and people just aren't sending in enough of it to keep PSA afloat.

The company would have several choices; they could raise their grading fees to try and make up the difference. Lower the fees to try and get people to send in more cards. Or maybe change their holder style.... to try and cause everyone to regrade their "old PSA cards" into their "new and improved PSA holders."

Unfortunately, I don't think either of the price adjustment scenarios would work out too well in the long run. I can't see people paying $40 to grade a common card, and I don't think I'd ever grade my newer commons even if the price dropped to only a few bucks per card. So if price adjustments don't work, and people don't want to grade the newer stuff, then PSA has to try and get all of the cards back in the doors again... for some type of new service.

I think we'll see a trend every __?__ years, where they are forced to offer a new product/service and some people will switch camps and some won't. It could drag on for a while and cause prices to rise and fall as the collectors decide what they really want.

PSA is a business that has to make money to stay alive, and a company on the verge of going out of business can sometimes try strange tatics to keep the doors open. It wouldn't surprise me to see some odd services being offered in the last days.... if there are ever last days. (how about a new deluxe PSA card holder with a micro chip implanted where you actually hear the recorded voice of the player on your card speaking). The set registry would have The Basic Set, the Master Set; The New Gold Holder Basic Set / Master Set; The Talking Holder Basic Set / Master Set ; The Holographic Holder Basic Set / Master Set; The Scratch and Sniff Basic Set / Master Set

I'm sure the guys at PSA have had this conversation and have a few plans up their sleeves that will help keep them alive. Some collectors will like the changes, and some will probably quit collecting because of them. But, I just can't see the PSA guys sitting around grading fewer and fewer cards every year until one day they finally open the mailbox and nothings in there.

As far as the card prices going up or down if they do eventually close up shop.... I imagine the Talking, holographic, scratch and sniff cards will hold their value just fine.... at least the vintage ones, of course.

itsawonderfullife

I have to agree with Vargha. The PSA name will live on for years to come. Here's the deal people and you heard it from me first.

People have gotten it wrong all along about the CU financial reports. It's CU that's drying PSA and not the other way around. Think about it. PSA has to pay a CEO and Board of Directors plus some other high priced beancounters a pant load of money and get virtually nothing in return. PSA dominates their market, why do they need CU? CU and PSA will separate at some point and it will be the best thing that will have ever happened to PSA. If PSA really wants to be a streamlined company, they need to move out of Newport Beach and move to an area with a modest cost of living and blow off the on-site grading at the regional shows which has to be a money loser, especially at the East Coast shows.

Here's another bit of information and you don't have to be Alan Greenspan to figure it out. SGC and GAI are hurting too or at the very best just making champ change. How do I know? It's simple. Both companies to best of my knowledge only have 2 or 3 graders. I'll assume that each grader grades about 400 cards a day. Since both are trying to undercut PSA, they probably only make $2 or $3 a card. They are lucky to make $750,000 in profit, but this is before you deduct salaries, overhead, advertising, buy backs, road shows, etc. and there can't much left. Think about it and crunch the numbers yourself. They aren't pretty!

But don't ever forget: It's a wonderful life!

murcerfan

they need to move out of Newport Beach and move to an area with a modest cost of living and blow off the on-site grading at the regional shows which has to be a money loser, especially at the East Coast shows.

another genius heard from.

Fuzz

James,
Is it excessive worry that keeps you from sleeping ?? While the long term viability of any company is always unknown, your "I think"'s and "from what I can tell"'s seem way of the mark.
First a commidity type company raises prices ONLY if business is strong. You LOWER prices to generate short term revenue, not raise them. Also look at the lack of a decent "special" for some time, this appears to be an inidcation of further strength.
Secondly, Dell has started a new printer business but I suspect that it does not mean that they are in trouble. They have the equipment and staff in place. It is a way to grow revenue at low cost. Sounds like a good move and I expect to see more of them.
Lastly, I looked up some financial info on the company, it is public you know. First line I saw was revenues up 39% for nine months, losses fall buy 93%. They have no debt, are cash flow positive and have cash in the bank. The losses seem to stem from amoritization and good will charges not operating expenses. While I would not buy the stock because they are losing money, that appears on track to stop in the near future if not already (I did not check the statements issues this week). Balance sheet seems OK and operations show profit of almost $20M. I suspect concerns of their demise are greatly exagerated.
Fuzz

boggs301012

i]Is it excessive worry that keeps you from sleeping ?? While the long term viability of any company is always unknown, your "I think"'s and "from what I can tell"'s seem way of the mark. Just my opinion.


I see PSA in a diffrent light. I have been here for years and have a name. I really liked the boards now I dont come here much. Jerks like "FUZZ" ruin the boards I try to say what I think I am not always right and never will be. I will go on a limb and say this people know my name. And I am not an arrogant pricI( like half the people here. And I dont make offhand remarks at people .


Psa is slowly reverting to PSA of old they may not go under but they have tarnished their image. WIGWAG need I say more. Keep customers in the dark. 6 months later the same old holder. Problems with major submitters.Whining about GAI being to close, that was tacky on there part they acted like 8 year olds. I see the Ticket grading in a diffrent way. Vintage is going to keep going strong. Modern will need diehards like me to submit. I throw money away ever order. ALOT of cards on ebay are not new but collectors giving up there sets. Yes there is new but not as much as it was last year.

I wont be posting here very often. Always an silent unknow A$$hole in the woods.

JAMES MILES

pc

i see their inventory is at zero.
finally they bit the bullet.
for sale

murcerfan

Boggs..........