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1932-D Washington Quarter and the POP Report

AKrickAKrick Posts: 518
in PCGS Set Registry Forum
This is for the Washington quarter experts. How accurate do you think the Pop Report is on the 1932-D? Mainly looking at the MS63 and MS64 numbers. PCGS is showing 387 graded MS63 and 288 in MS64. Are these numbers fairly accurate or way off do to upgrade attempts? Also what is the probability of some being cracked out of their PCGS holders and sent to NGC or other grading companies in hopes of getting a point or two upgrade? Thanks in advance for your input!

Rick

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    solidsolid Posts: 2,975
    I certainly don't have my hand on the pulse of the market, but here are
    the numbers from PCGS pop report and price guide:

    MS63 - 387 coins $2,400
    MS64 - 288 coins $6,300
    MS65 - 38 coins $30,000
    MS66 - 1 coin! $85,000

    I would assume that most MS63-graded coins are just that, MS63's. Same with
    MS64's and MS65's. But some percentage, certainly 5-10% or more, could be
    considered PQ for the grade. With the price jumps between grades, there is a
    big incentive to crack the coin and resubmit, possibly several times. This really
    skews the pop reports, particularly on expensive coins.

    Just to illustrate, I've come with up with an estimate of how many coins might
    actually exist in PCGS holders at the assigned grade. Just pulling numbers out
    of the air, let's say that 10% of the PCGS coins have been resubmitted an average
    number of 3 times, and another 10% of the coins have been cracked and sent to
    NGC. Who knows what the real statistics are, but using these numbers, here's
    how it stacks up.

    --------------------

    MS63 - current pop shows 387 coins

    297 coins were graded MS63, 30 of those being resubmitted 3 times = 387 coins in the pop report.

    Let's say 1/3 actually got into MS64 holders.

    387 pop report
    90- phantom coins from resubmissions
    10- upgraded to MS64
    30- cracked and sent to NGC
    ----
    257 coins still in PCGS MS63 holders

    --------------------

    MS64 - current pop shows 288 coins

    222 coins were graded MS64, 22 of those being resubmitted 3 times = 288 coins in the pop report.

    Again, maybe 1/3 actually got into MS65 holders.

    288 pop report
    66- phantom coins from resubmissions
    7- upgraded to MS65
    22- cracked and sent to NGC
    ----
    193 coins still in PCGS MS64 holders

    --------------------

    MS65 - current pop shows 38 coins

    29 coins were graded MS65, 3 of those being resubmitted 3 times = 38 coins in the pop report.

    1 coin makes it to MS66!!!

    38 pop report
    9- phantom coins from resubmissions
    1- upgraded to MS66
    3- cracked and sent to NGC
    ----
    25 coins still in PCGS MS65 holders

    --------------------

    MS66 - current pop is 1 coin, and you'd have to be nuts to crack this one!!!

    Using the numbers from above, you can see that the pop reports, versus
    the coins in actual existance, could easily be inflated by roughly 50%!

    Forgive me if my numbers don't add up...it's really late here! image

    Ken
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    AKrickAKrick Posts: 518
    Ken,

    Thanks for all your hard work in getting those figures! According to your calculations there are a total of 476 PCGS 1932-D quarters out there somewhere with grades ranging from MS63 to MS66. I went over to the Registry and checked how many sets had 32-Ds with the above grades. Of the 16 sets open in the top 20 there were eleven MS64, three MS63, one MS65. and one MS62. My best guess is that the remaining four sets in the Top 20 have 32-Ds graded MS64 or better. I also found one other MS63 in the remaining sets registered.

    According to those figures that means that less than 5% of all the 32-D quarters graded MS63 or better are in the Registry. My question is, "Where are the remaining 95%?". Either this shows that not too many collector's are in to playing the Registry game or there is one or more collectors hoarding a lot of 32-Ds.

    As you can tell from my Signature Line I'm in the market for one of those remaining 32-Ds. I had a fellow board member look at the recent Long Beach show for me and he couldn't find any dealers with one in their case. In the past I have seen one or two come up for auction at the big shows. I'm just a little puzzled that I haven't seen more being offered. In all fairness I must tell you that I live in Alaska and I'm limited mostly to looking on the internet. Anybody else have any thoughts on this topic?

    Rick
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