Matte Lincoln proofs..... undervalued?
Bustman
Posts: 1,911 ✭
Seems to me matte lincoln proofs ( 1909-1916) are a very good deal right now. MS lincolns are through the roof, while the matte proofs have had very little change. Does anyone have a theory as to why this is?
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The problem is, most of the ones I see, do not meet all of those requirements. And, most of the ones that do, bring considerably over published prices.
In my opinion, they are a bit too scarce to be the target of promotions and, due to their subdued appearances, they are not appreciated by most novices.
On a side note, I see many more attractive, high-grade Matte Proof Buffalo Nickels than I do the cents, despite the fact that the nickels typically (excluding prices of certain RD cents) sell at higher levels.
Mike Printz
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
<< <i>Many find Matte proof coins to be difficult to grade, and I'm guessing Mark would echo that as well. >>
Nope, Mike, I think they are actually quite easy to grade.
I would still agree with the original post as well. The Matte Proofs are less volatile than what has been happening in the MS arena. An absolutely beautiful PR67RD 1909 just sold off the David Hall website for a bit over $6000. A pop 5 in 67RD early MS coin would run about $12,000-15,000 right now.
Mike
Harlan J. Berk, Ltd.
https://hjbltd.com/#!/department/us-coins
I may be wrong. Did anyone else notice it. I do agree there are very few really nice ones going up for sale.
I have been looking for a nice 09 VDB for about 4 years now.
I know my duplicate 1909 V.D.B. in Proof 67 red recently sold to a board member for $80,000.I would be willing to sell one of my 1914's in Proof 68 red for $100,000.Maybe this is a good deal ....but I don't know Jack Schit.
Jack the knife- Are you a surgeon? Anyway the 1909 that david Hall sold recently was a very,very good deal for the coin.It looked like the Norweb coin.Did you buy it?
Stewart
Unless you believe that the 1917 Matte Lincoln is a "reality" coin, then the 1909 VDB Matte Lincoln is the key Matte Proof Lincoln cent (and they are comparatively expensive). The 1916 Matte Lincoln is right behind it. The 1915 Matte Lincoln is next. The 1912 Matte Lincoln in full red is very scarce (and in 65 and up full red grade the 1912 is EXTREMELY scarce).
It is VERY prudent to buy Matte Proof Lincoln Cents certified by one of the Big 3 (because Matte Lincolns look like business strikes). I've seen many unscrupulous (or unknowledgeable) sellers offering raw business strikes as Matte Proofs. Go certified! matteproof
No Lincoln collector can ignore the detail a high grade Matte has. The 09 vdb's don't have as much, but look at the beard detail on the 15 and 16 below.
Here are three of mine:
1909 vdb PCGS PR66RB
1915 PCGS PR65RED (Stewart should recognize this 66 hiding in a 65 holder!)
1916 PCGS PR66RB
Something I wanted to point out with these is that the 1916 RB coin is simply toned a little, and does not have what I consider "BROWN" on it. The toning over the portrait is sea green and purple. I took this picture with a lot of light to minimize the light toning. You can't do that with real brown on the coin. It just doesn't work. Same with the 09 vdb.
This one has kept me on the search for for more.
FrederickCoinClub
Larry, that is a really cool coin! Did they give you a brown or a red-brown on that? When they give a brown on that, it is an injustice. That is classic 1916 toning color, but the pattern is very, very interesting.
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
Greg
what grade is that 1910 ?
stewart
I was thinking the same thing. I'm guessing 65rb on the 1910.
i guess i cant add more!
oh and we need more coin posts like these!!!!!!!!!
any matte proof that is a really super choice proof and/or gem or higher and brown and/or red brown
and is nicely colored and with none of the usual spots and is clean overall is a monster greast rare fantastic beautiful totally undervalued coin
forget about all the red proofs
BORING..................................................... expensive way over appreciated but still nice if you gots them though
michael
michael
Here's Tim Liston's 1916 66rb:
I guess this is the thread to say thanks again for talking up my 1912 MP Lincoln about 20 years ago in an Ivy auction.
Sold for all of $750, I think.
"Ask, and it shall be given you; seek, and ye shall find; knock, and it shall be opened unto you." -Luke 11:9
"Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God is one LORD: And thou shalt love the LORD thy God with all thine heart, and with all thy soul, and with all thy might." -Deut. 6:4-5
"For the LORD is our judge, the LORD is our lawgiver, the LORD is our king; He will save us." -Isaiah 33:22
I like that 1916 66 RB a lot!! The granular surface and the color look fantastic together.
Was your coin one of those gorgeous "RB" pieces with multicolored patina, or a "RD" one?
I think I remember a "RB" one from the 1980 ANA sale, but, I realize the chances of that being correct (AND the coin you're speaking of) are extremely remote.
My 1910 is a PCGS PR65RD. Touch of color on the reverse. What were you guys thinking about it?
Greg
1. Generally accepted mintage figures for the series total: 15,314. Stopper is the 09 vdb, at a total mintage of 420.
2. Pops for all grades and years:
PCGS:
RED - 576
RED/BR - 1169
BROWN - 316
TOTAL - 2,061
NGC:
RED - 220
RED/BR - 650
BROWN - 267
TOTAL - 1,139
So, if you want to build the 9 coin set in any grade, this is your basic pool. NGC is far more liberal on their color designation, as many of the RB's are really brown, or at least would never get in a PCGS RB holder.
3. PR65 should be the baseline grade for a 20th century proof coin. With that in mind, the pool drops as follows:
PCGS Total for all colors 65+ = 872
NGC Total for all colors 65+ = 621
Total 65+ = 1,493
4. NGC grades are almost one grade higher than they should be for this particular series. With that in mind, the 65+ pool drops again as follows:
PCGS Total for all colors 65+ = 872
NGC Total for all colors 65+ = 227
Total 65+ = 1,099
5. Now, if you get down to GEM RED matte proof Lincolns as graded by NGC and PCGS, you are left with the following certified coins, by year:
.............................PCGS.........NGC.......TOTAL
1909........................81............13............94
1909vdb..................15..............7............22
1910........................59............12............71
1911........................27..............1............28
1912........................14..............1............15
1913........................65............14............79
1914........................41..............5............46
1915........................24..............0............24
1916........................11..............3............14
TOTALS..................337............56..........393
The strong money is paid for PCGS GEM RED MPL's. That is most likely why these have migrated to PCGS holders. My assumption is that the NGC coins left have been tried for cross, and do not meet the PCGS criteria, so essentially, the GEM RED MPL's are in the PCGS column.
That, my friend Michael, is why TRUE GEM RED MPL's are so expensive.
We'll use our hands and hearts and if we must we'll use our heads.
I grade your 1910.....pretty darn nice !!!!! I would also grade it about $2,000.
One of the nicest matte proof Lincolns(which I do not own) is a 1909 V.D.B. from the John Story Jenks collection in an NGC Proof 68 R/B holder.It is breathtaking......and coming from me it means alot.
Stewart Blay
Greg
As you know (we’ve been around this before) I enjoy the “colorful” RB matte proof cents and I have a very well matched high-grade “colorful” set, a set that I assembled 10-12 years ago (all are in old green label holders). Everything was much cheaper then, and I could have afforded RD coins, though not as easily. But it’s a matter of taste, and judging from this thread there are those who enjoy owning and examining colorfully toned matte proof cents as much or more than RD examples. Especially now, RB-designated cents are MUCH cheaper than the RD cents, which gets back to the original question posed by this thread. Are matte proof cents undervalued? In your first reply to this thread you said that the RB spectrum is in fact the best “value” and I agree. They are undervalued and will continue to appreciate. The RD’s, heck, I wish I owned a set, but how much farther can the top-pop stuff go? One of my two RB sets may hit the auction block in 2009, when the Lincoln turns 100 and when my oldest daughter starts college, so I hope we’re both right and that nice RB matte proof cents have a lot of upside left. Four years of college for nine cents sounds like a great deal to me…….
Having just gotten my first MP Lincoln (see previous sentence), I have found this thread very interesting! Thanks to everyone for the insightful comments.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
My Complete PROOF Lincoln Cent with Major Varieties(1909-2015)Set Registry
Thanks, Tim. Yes, I still believe that the RB's are the best value. I didn't mean to give out mixed signals. I was just trying to make a point about building a gem red set of MPL's. Arguably, it is only possible to build 14 sets right now (because of the 16), and the last NGC 1916 gem red was offered at $16k, and was no where near a full red gem. Another expert I know would say publicly that there are really not ANY 1916's in gem red.
The PCGS Numbers in 66 and higher drop as follows:
...........................BROWN......RED/BR......RED........TOTAL
1909 VDB.................0..............3................9............12
1909........................1..............18............37............56
1910........................2..............13............21............36
1911........................5..............13..............8............26
1912........................5................8..............1............14
1913........................1..............13............31............45
1914........................3..............23............22............48
1915........................5..............10..............7............22
1916........................0................9..............2............11
...............................22...........110..........138..........270
Also, as you know Tim, the trick comes with what is actually in the holder. Which would you rather have, the 1910 that Greg posted, or the 1910 below offered for sale by Heritage right now for $1,500? Both are PCGS 65Reds.
I think that is what Stewart picked up on when he saw Greg's. No spots, just a small amount of fading and some really nice color!
Forgot to mention on prices, you can throw the book out the window on nice 66 examples in RB or Red. I have paid over CU values for each coin in my set because I wouldn't settle for merely holders . . . I bought the coins!
“Gem Full Red Set” (all nine 65RD except VDB which is 64RD) – Total cost $40,300. Total number of PCGS sets available is 11.
“Really Really Gem Red Brown Set” (all nine 66RB except VDB which is 65RB) – Total cost $20,800. Total number of PCGS sets available is 8.
In both cases we’re stepping down one grade for the VDB “stopper” which seems appropriate given that “value” is the subject of this thread, not big dollar pop top. The totals come from CU numbers which may be high or low but that are “relatively” comparable. Clearly you will pay a lot more for the more common 65RD set.
So why is it that the scarcer set costs one-half the money? Simple. The perception that “Red” is a WHOLE LOT “better” (for whatever reason) than “Red Brown”. Plus, the willingness to pay whatever to achieve the highest registry value. With no particular desire to put together a nicely matched set, so it’s OK to put bright RD and average RB together just to get a higher registry placement.
Well I respectfully disagree. We’re creating SETS here, not just putting coins together to get a great registry grade. At least that was my presumption a decade ago, long before the registry was created, when I put my MPL sets together.
You hear a lot about “buy the coin not the plastic” in this forum. I agree that you need to look at the coin first. That Heritage 1910 is god-awful, it obviously turned in the holder. A lot of the higher-grade MPLs at the ANA show this summer were average at best. But I go a big step further and say that a “set” is a group of nicely-matched coins, not just an assemblage of plastic and labels designed to maximize a registry rating. I know I won’t get any “brownie points” or extra money based on the quality and consistency of my RB sets, not this year anyway. But wait until 2009 when the Lincoln cent turns 100. Somebody is gonna pay HUGE bucks for nicely-matched RB sets. I own two already. There are six more to be had, and they are real VALUE I think......
Easy for you to say coin breath!! YOU'VE GOT 16 of the 110 PCGS 66 or better Red Browns !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'll give you $20.8K for your set right now!!!
Doug you're right I do own a decent chunk of the 66RB MPL's. Maybe I should pick one of the "common" dates and buy ALL the 66RB's for that date and reduce even further the number of 66RB sets that can be assembled. Right now I could buy all six 1912's or all six 1915's (66RB) that I don't already own for under $15,000 and reduce to zero the number of 66RB sets that can be assembled. Heck for every 1912 or 1915 66RB I publicly wire-wheeled, the value of my sets would increase far more than the cost of the sacrificial coin.
Hmmmmm.......
Ah . . . the Max Mehl of Matte Proofs!
No need in doing that. You would just be buying plastic. IMO, there are some dogs in the plastic, and you have probably already reaped the cream. My initial point was that this was the general pool of coins available, and you would have to sort through these to find the even smaller pool of nice MPL's. If you sort through the Heritage archives, you will see what I mean with the 66rb's and the 65rb's.
One I am still kicking myself over is the 09vdb that sold in the Tree Many Feathers auction. Boy it was a nice one, in a 66rb holder. I dropped out at $14k, and I think it sold for $16.5k.
None of mine are spotty or overgraded. I am having a hard time finding any MPL's that would improve my set, even inside the grades I already have. This also begs another question. Am I willing to pay for the next grade up? The only "up" for me on the 09vdb is to acquire a 66red. I don't want a DIP (dog in plastic), because mine is nice. That means shelling out $30K, less what I could get for mine. The only 1916 in 66red (IMO) sold for $21K a while back. I haven't yet seen a 1911 that I like better than mine.
One thing for sure is that each upgrade for me in the future will be precious and well thought out. Coincidentally, I still have a few RB's that are not listed in my Registry Set. I just haven't been able to part with them!
I own the 1916 67 R/B in an old PCGS holder.What do you think the value is today?
stewart
Sight-unseen, PCGS PR67RB, $6,000. Depending on eye appeal, amount of real brown, color, etc., it could very easily cross the $10K threshhold.
That obviously is just a best guess.
66red would be north of $21K.
Pops for the 1916 are:
66brn - 0
67brn - 0
66rb - 8 (I have one, and you have 2, so there are only 5 left out there)
67rb - 1 (this is stewarts)
66red - 2
67red - 0
RB's don't get the respect, which is what this thread has been about for the last 20 posts.
Here is a picture of the obverse of one of the 1916 PR66red's:
Back to the RB question and what is actually in the holders. Would you give this coin a Red or a Red/Brown???