gold closed monday sept 22 $388 on the comex where is it going?

michael

are you a gold buyer or a seller?
or maybe a buyer of generic saints? better numismatic gold?

or not?

will this help the overall numismatic market?

any comments


michael

dragon

I think anytime the precious metals markets are headed north, it's certainly somewhat bullish for rare coins also, with generic gold and obviously bullion related material usually the first to respond.

I was reading some technical reports on gold recently and some people seem to think that if gold can penetrate the 400.00 barrier that it may be a straight shot to the 450.00-470.00 area before it corrects........we'll see I guess.

dragon

roadrunner

Will be a partial seller if gold stays long enough in the $400's to take a profit. Hard to say. The technicals are very bullish right now with nothing suggesting anything but continued strength. We shall see.

roadrunner

Deadhorse

I read something interesting today. It seems the strong buyers are in the Arab world and China, they are ready to play another 4+ trillion into the gold market very soon.

Not stocks, mind you, but for delivery. Western banks have already depleted half their reserves trying to hold down prices and soon the jig may be up.

If Western banks resort to being buyers as well out of a survival instinct, it could be a wild ride upward.

I expect $400 plus before Christmas and $500 or more a year after that. We could see a revaluation in the $600-$800 range in a couple of years, never again to a bottom below $500 in our lifetimes.

Time will tell, but I've got a front row seat and a vested interest. I recently aquired another batch of raw modern $50s and I feel much better about it than I have when buying numismatic items lately.

fountainheadgold

To the moon alice, to the moon

cladking

Gold prices mostly affect the coin market by putting money in peoples pockets while it's going up and removing
it when going down. They also have an effect on the base price of all the bullion value based gold coins and
at least a small psychological effect on prices of most lower value gold. In the long run it really has relatively
little effect. Gold will move up until it's at a level that the central banks feel it can be held. At this point they
will arrest the move and it will trade in a new range for a time. This level will be well shy of $600 and the drop
will bring it down to the low 400's briefly. Watch for this to occur in relatively short order.

roadrunner

I read that same article and thought the # was 4 BILLION. I think the total mined gold extant is in the $300 BILLION range. 4 TRILLION would buy it all and leave enough to buy some dot.com
stocks.

The close above $400 could be as soon as this week or next.

roadrunner

Deadhorse

<< <i>I read that same article and thought the # was 4 BILLION. I think the total mined gold extant is in the $300 BILLION range. 4 TRILLION would buy it all and leave enough to buy some dot.com
stocks.

The close above $400 could be as soon as this week or next.

roadrunner >>



My bad, it was 4.6 billion with another billion order coming up soon. At any rate, gold looks more bullish than we've seen it in awhile.

Baley

have a handful of $20 Libs, will sell one at $400 gold and then another every $25-30.
buying when gold is below 300 again, if it ever is. I expect we'll see $500 before $300 but of course anything could happen. Even inflation

Higashiyama

Deadhorse -

"Western banks have already depleted half their reserves trying to hold down prices and soon the jig may be up."

The central banks of the EU, US, and Japan don't particularly care about the price of gold. To the extent that they do care, they have agreed (as pointed out by others) to limit gold sales in order not to depress the price of gold. Total gold held by central banks has dropped about 5 % over the past 25 years. Rough numbers for current holdings, at today's price, are as follows:

USA -- $ 100 billion

Germany -- $ 40 billion

France -- $ 35 billion

Switzerland - $ 30 billion

These numbers are small compared to the size of the global economy, small compared to the global money supply, but are relatively large compared to annual gold production (about $ 30 billion). In any case, they are large enough so that the price of gold would plummet if one of these countries decided to really dump gold.

"It seems the strong buyers are in the Arab world and China"

There is undoubtedly pent up demand in China, but fundamentally the Chinese understand the process of wealth creation. They are not going to waste a lot of time dabbling in gold. The Arab world has for a long time been a major buyer of gold. This may correlate with the lack of success they have had in building wealth beyond a commodity based economy. Welfare state challenges notwithstanding, the European central bankers know a lot more about wealth creation and management than the Arabs do . . .

cladking

It does seem improbable that gold could go to extremely high valuations
without the collapse of all the major currencies. So long as stocks and fi-
nancial instruments are denominated in dollars or euros there will be safer
and more attractive yields in these areas. It is generally recognized that
currencies are overvalued relative gold so this is the effect. When the gold
comes back into line with its real value the move will end at least in the
short term. Its behavior after this time will be determined in the furture so
isn't really predictable, but if trends continue there may well be an even more
substantial rise for gold in a few years.