True Amount of Vintage Out There
PSAtan
Posts: 164
I think we've all noticed this trend - A major dealer buys slabbed cards, breaks them out and resells suggesting a higher grade than what the card had received. I've seen this 1000 times. I just noticed a 1954 Dan Dee partial set mostly in GAI 3 -5 won by Kit Young. Kit Young doesn't sell slabbed cards, thus these will be broken out and resold at a premium. The Mantle alone in GAI 3 will pay for the entire lot of cards.
This leads me to my question - How much vintage is really out there? We've all resubmitted cards, dealers are constantly cracking, using Beckett ungraded to up their prices and many cards in the registry are sold among the upper echelon so the set GPAs don't include new cards.
I'm starting to get the feeling that there's a lot less vintage stuff out there than it appears. A thousand dollars spent on baseball cards is huge for most collectors out there. We all can't go dropping big dollars. We all have family responsibilities, taxes and unexpected payments like when all our pipes burst. I hate when I hear how tough it is for dealers. I hate hearing how tough the margins are. In reality, these businesses can afford to carry cards and sell them one at a time. Their pricing techniques are nonsense. We all get hacked with the first column of Beckett when we go to sell while they use the second column when we are buying. Additionally, dealers get large price breaks on grading submission costs if they choose to go that route. Also, check out the inventories of the PSA authorized dealers. See what percentage of cards are overgraded. From my research, I say it's almost 70 percent. Check out Bleam's scans. Check out Maraya's scans. I pointed out a PSA 8 1949 Bowman Paige a few days ago on Maraya's website. For god's sake, it has bent corners. I know for a fact these dealers are constantly lobbying PSA and other graders to knock up grades.
I used to think the power was in the hands of the grading companies. They are powerful. However, I've noticed that these major dealers wield quite a bit of power too. I can't imagine every buying another card from a dealer. I've been raped too many times to sit down. Ebay is the only fair way to find a card at market value. Unless, of course, you are bidding on Block ebay auctions which have their own rules. Ebay is addictive, but there's some safety in a free market. I think major powerhouse dealers are seeing the end of a long reign. Their inventories aren't moving and we'd all rather buy the cards from Mussolini than dish our money over to those pigs.
Curious as to your thoughts,
Satan
This leads me to my question - How much vintage is really out there? We've all resubmitted cards, dealers are constantly cracking, using Beckett ungraded to up their prices and many cards in the registry are sold among the upper echelon so the set GPAs don't include new cards.
I'm starting to get the feeling that there's a lot less vintage stuff out there than it appears. A thousand dollars spent on baseball cards is huge for most collectors out there. We all can't go dropping big dollars. We all have family responsibilities, taxes and unexpected payments like when all our pipes burst. I hate when I hear how tough it is for dealers. I hate hearing how tough the margins are. In reality, these businesses can afford to carry cards and sell them one at a time. Their pricing techniques are nonsense. We all get hacked with the first column of Beckett when we go to sell while they use the second column when we are buying. Additionally, dealers get large price breaks on grading submission costs if they choose to go that route. Also, check out the inventories of the PSA authorized dealers. See what percentage of cards are overgraded. From my research, I say it's almost 70 percent. Check out Bleam's scans. Check out Maraya's scans. I pointed out a PSA 8 1949 Bowman Paige a few days ago on Maraya's website. For god's sake, it has bent corners. I know for a fact these dealers are constantly lobbying PSA and other graders to knock up grades.
I used to think the power was in the hands of the grading companies. They are powerful. However, I've noticed that these major dealers wield quite a bit of power too. I can't imagine every buying another card from a dealer. I've been raped too many times to sit down. Ebay is the only fair way to find a card at market value. Unless, of course, you are bidding on Block ebay auctions which have their own rules. Ebay is addictive, but there's some safety in a free market. I think major powerhouse dealers are seeing the end of a long reign. Their inventories aren't moving and we'd all rather buy the cards from Mussolini than dish our money over to those pigs.
Curious as to your thoughts,
Satan
0
Comments
1)I disagree with you on your last point. "We'd rather buy the cards from Mussolini than dish our money over to those pigs" referring to major powerhouse dealers.
Not me--ebay is an enormous time consumer and I count on my long-term relationships with major dealers to get lots of the cards I need. You seldom see the tough vintage cards come up on ebay as major dealers if they have them will try to cut a deal with their large preferred customers. There is no advantage on ebay--highest price wins.
More and more, however, I am buying cards from other collectors--most of which register their sets and some even post here.
Lastly, without question the supply of high grade vintage(pre-1959) cards is drying up. Which is where the dealer relationships come in.
Davalillo
I think purchasing cars from other collectors is a great strategy. It works out well for everybody - You get cards you need, they get funds to redirect on other sets. However, I'm so tired of a great number of these dealers. Now, don't get me wrong. I made a blanket statement that might be unfair because there's a lot of decent dealers out there. I've established client/buyer relationships with some good and most bad. The bad guys look to constantly fock me. I don't mind buying my way into the good graces of a dealer. If I haven't spent money with them, why should I get preferential deals? However, once you've dropped 10K with someone, I think there's some room for a dealer to reciprocate. I can't stand the long song and dances I get when I ask for a break on a card after dropping 5K the previous week. I don't argue with them. I simply walk out and they lose my business. I'd be curious to know who you'd recommend in the dealer world. Why not PM me and give me a small list. I believe that a buyer deserves some reward for referring decent-sized buyers so I'd reference you. I've sent clients to some of these pigs and they make believe they're doing me a favor.
Thanks for the response,
Satan
My favorite vintage dealers are
Steve Novella
Kris Keppler
Chris Porter
I also like
Dave Forman
Bill Goodwin
Greg Bussineau
Brian Drent
Kurt Koltrane
Among guys on the boards or that deal mainly in 1960s-1970s I like Jay Wolt and Keith Abrams. I actually think the world of Keith.
Not many guys I do not like--would not buy from Alan Rosen.
I am leaving out the ebayers.
Dav
I do agree that raw vintage is drying up. I monitor the pop reports of 1957 Topps BB and I've found that the number of submissions has been diminishing monthly.
Always looking for 1957 Topps BB in PSA 9!
I truly enjoy Ebay; it's the way to go. Tough vintage cards do indeed come up all the time. One just has to be diligent and patient. What's the rush? Gee, if I was dumb enough to collect 136 sets totalling tens of thousands of cards, I wouldn't have time for Ebay either. Heck, I wouldn't even have a life.
Skycap
Thats the trouble in doing these lists quickly.
In that second list should also be Wayne Varner of Shoebox Cards and Andy Madec.
Mantlefan,
I agree with you. The problem with ebay for me is when I have time to do it--I end up placing a lot of bids as many of my sets are only 70-80 percent complete. Not only do I have no idea on how much to bid on these but I have to get the pop report for all the years. Then winning cards from 25 different sellers and having to keep[ track of it all is just too much. Much easier to have Jim Hoffman call me and say I am selling my 64s what do you want, here are my prices or Jerry C sell me his 52 Bowman Smalls or Jay Wolt to put together a package knowing he will be fair.
At the end of the day I know I will have to fight it out on ebay for the last few cards in some sets but I am not to that point yet.
Jim
I really do enjoy the hobby and just because I have the resources and the desire to put together a large number of sets is no reason to act like you do. Maybe I am dumb for doing it but 1) I really enjoy it and 2)It has been a great investment. I get deals from the major dealers because I buy a lot of stuff from them. If ebay works for you fine--it is just difficult for me.
Davalillo
There are still some knowledgeable collectors who don't collect slabbed cards, and no doubt some collectors are not internet savy. A portion of hobbyists will only buy face to face or with a mail order source they are comfortable with. These factors combined with 'finds" of older material which surface every so often, make a solid estimate quite difficult.
How about graded cards from non-major companies ?
There may be some 53 Bowmans in CSA or XYZ slabs , no mater how correctly evaluated or not, which would add to vintage for PSA, Etc., for grading. Perhaps someone like Larry Fritcsh has lots of material not economically correct for SCDA, and is awaitng the proper time for flooding the market. It is not unlikely many non-collectors have some cards from the 50s and 60s which they are holding untill retirement to sell. Coin collectors are known for buying material and "locking it up" to save for 20 plus years then evaluate and sell, there are probably some card collectors who have done similar years back.
The addition of new material to "vintage" cards will not dry up too soon, there is some point though, for which almost all older material will be in the hands of collectors or dealers. The pre-war items will probably diminish greatly before the 50s and 60s.
One of the dealers listed above is especially notorious for trimmed cards -- yes, trimmed graded cards. If you have bought large amounts of cards from all of these guys, then there is a very high likelihood that you have a lot of trimmed cards in your collection. He was notorious for selling trimmed raw cards before the era of grading (unfortunately I realized I was a victim years after the fact); this practice continues as he is one of the ones who not only gets the "lucky" grades but "lucky" encapsulation to begin with.
Skycap
<< <i>One of the dealers listed above is especially notorious for trimmed cards -- yes, trimmed graded cards. >>
I have made no purchases from any of those guys because they all deal in really high grade material and it makes no sense for me to buy and 8 and break it out and lose 75% of my purchase price. Those are all names that I have heard that are associated with getting doctored cards into holders. I think that it is unfair to point fingers unless you know that the cards are altered. I am not challenging skycap's claim that he has had bad experiences with one of the guys on that list--was just trying to avoid another witch hunt thread.
I am sure that some of the rumors are true and then there are those that perpetuate due to the human condition. We just cannot help ourselves from yapping it up without having real firsthand info. Remember we live in a country where we are innocent until proven guilty.
The kinder gentler,
MBT
I do not and have not bought ungraded cards in the last 12 years.
I know every one of these dealers personally and I think all are leading dealers with great reputations.
The bad cards I got that that would not grade came from outfits not in business today.
Davalillo
I think that there is a great deal of vintage left out there.I am sure that there are a lot of collectors(especially older collectors) that have really nice raw sets.I do think that the amount of raw vintage that is being graded is drying up but there is still a large amount in private hands that has yet to surface in the big boys hands. At this years national I met many dealers that were selling raw only and graded seemed to be down this year.I think that a large part of the graded that is being listed on e-bay is recently graded.While the trend for graded will be for it to continue to dry up,I think that there will be a steady supply for a few years at least.
Vic
<< <i>I'm unwilling to pay their vastly inflated prices, >>
- Me too
<< <i>I truly enjoy Ebay; it's the way to go. Tough vintage cards do indeed come up all the time. >>
- I agree
John
John,
Could you shorten your responses a little.You make reading a thread teadious.I bet you are long winded in a conversation also.
Vic
JEB.
<< <i>Davalillo,
One of the dealers listed above is especially notorious for trimmed cards -- yes, trimmed graded cards. If you have bought large amounts of cards from all of these guys, then there is a very high likelihood that you have a lot of trimmed cards in your collection. He was notorious for selling trimmed raw cards before the era of grading (unfortunately I realized I was a victim years after the fact); this practice continues as he is one of the ones who not only gets the "lucky" grades but "lucky" encapsulation to begin with.
Skycap >>
Now now, I have it on good authority that when they all became PSA authorized dealers, they underwent religious conversions.
<< <i>Now now, I have it on good authority that when they all became PSA authorized dealers, they underwent religious conversions. >>
Hopefully "one dealer" had the water of the mighty Mississippi poured on his head.
It's not perfect, but I'd say it's as good an estimate as any. Remember, there are some years that MM was a DP, so adjust accordingly.
What is worrying, MantleFan posted about 57 submissions drying up, and you have to think that there are only a set number of cards out there that will be graded and regardless of where you think we are in that distribution (i.e. 50% of the total universe, or closer to 80%), it is a finite universe. At some point, the grading companies are not going to have cards to grade. Like the buggy whip manufacturers before them, I wonder what will become of them.
I don't think dealers or collectors cracking and resubmitting represents that big a dent in the business even though I've always wondered about the pop report for that reason.
Here's to enjoying the ride and the view.
eBay auctions
I've never met you, but I do appreciate your sharing your knowledge. I also respect your courteous response to Skycap's comments. I'm guessing you must've kicked his wife or slept with his dog.....er...or something.
As for amount of vintage available, I still believe there is a LOT more to be found. Many collectors just aren't motivated to have their cards graded. An example is my co-worker. He has a beautiful 56 baseball set. I've told him for years to get it graded. The set sits in a binder in his room. I've seen the cards and would estimate that the set would grade mostly 7, with a decent amount of 8's. He doesn't collect anymore and bought the set years ago on a whim.
Now that is one example. I know other guys who are sitting on hi grade 60's and 70's singles and just don't need to sell yet. But gradually this material will come to market. I just don't think you will see the frequent big finds like we did during the 80's
Along those same lines, if other people like eBay for whatever their gig may be..... than that's great for them as well. All of these buying options are very viable depending on the card or size of transaction.
Personally, if I have a large amount of cards to get for a particular set I'd rather do a big deal to gain an average lower price per card. Then...fill the gaps at shows and eBay.
Back to the point of the thread. I ask myself the same question to myself all of the time that PSAatn asked here? I think the only answer is for all of us to stop what we're doing and conduct a physical inventory
If we all know of someone like this - and probably guys like Norty and Qualitycards know several - wouldn't it be stretching things to say that there is not much left out there for encapsulation?