<< <i>The buying, selling and grading of coins takes place in a large pond of water which can be called the "coin market". For those who cant swim well or for those who are careless there is abundant opportunity to lose a large portion of money invested, due to the dangers lurking in the pond. When a person pays too much for a coin there is going to be a loss of money to that person, or their heirs. This has nothing to do with the size of a persons pocket book. Wealthy people who dont do their homework will lose money as well as those of more modest means. My advice to anyone who is new to the pond is to stay away from any crazy money deal until they are well schooled in the market. There are several areas of "crazy money" in the pond today. One is the toned coin craze. Another is named in this thread, which is condition census rarities of common coins, not just modern coins. Dont get me wrong, I buy quite a few toned Morgan dollars, but I dont pay crazy money for them. I dont mind paying double bluesheet for say an 1884 in a PCGS 65 holder which has nice original toning, but I wont pay thirty times bluesheet for an 81-S in a 64 holder. Once those particular coins are in the hands of the final buyer, he or she has lost a ton of money. JMHO. >>
This is mostly all true and definitely sound advice. But those who are paying big money for coins they don't understand are for the main part buying older coins. Those buying the moderns in high grade have generally been around the block a few times or are quick learners.
Yes, an expert and A rated player, or A and B rated player, or whatever are sometimes very similar in strength and may only be seperated by just a few insignificant rating points, just like an MS64.9 coin vs. an MS65.1 coin.
<< <i>Yes, an expert and A rated player, or A and B rated player, or whatever are sometimes very similar in strength and may only be seperated by just a few insignificant rating points, just like an MS64.9 coin vs. an MS65.1 coin.
Coin collecting is like an auction, pure competition, the Registry just made it more public! I dont care what you collect, there isnt a single one of you that wouldnt trade your set(collection) for the best known. You are all competing whether you know it or not!
You can fool man but you can't fool God! He knows why you do what you do!
<< <i>Coin collecting is like an auction, pure competition, the Registry just made it more public! I dont care what you collect, there isnt a single one of you that wouldnt trade your set(collection) for the best known. You are all competing whether you know it or not! >>
This isn't entirely untrue, but competition doesn't have to be the driving motivation or even a major factor in any individual's actions.
I love the phrase "a coin is worth what someone is willing to pay for it" wrong, after you buy the coin, a coin is worth what the next lowest bidder is willing to pay for it. Or in case you buy a coin for a long term ownership the coins worth is established at the point of sale. And for those that say "I don't care what my coins are worth" please sign your name here and the rest of us will try to find coins for you at coin vault profit margins.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
<< <i>...for those that say "I don't care what my coins are worth" please sign your name here and the rest of us will try to find coins for you at coin vault profit margins >>
your problem is that you can only see the "worth" of coins in terms of dollars. is that how you'd value, for example, your children? your pet parakeet? how about the furniture in your house, does it's "worth" derive entirely from it's value in dollars, or do you get some "worth" from enjoying the use of it? what about your food, is it's entire "worth" based on how much it cost you? why must everything of "worth" be measured in terms of dollars for you?
i'll say it again, if the only value you find in your coins is based on $, your a sorry excuse for a coin-collector.
<< <i>Coin collecting is like an auction, pure competition, the Registry just made it more public! I dont care what you collect, there isnt a single one of you that wouldnt trade your set(collection) for the best known. You are all competing whether you know it or not! >>
dude, what kind of crack are you snorting??? your babbling goes beyond senseless.
"The differences between coins in MS grades tends to be large. Obviously two coins can by chance be close, but typically there is a wide spread in quality."
That is counter to what all of the grading standards guides convey with respect to the higher MS grades being discussed. Remember our discussion regardig the word "miniscule" in another recent thread? Nothing has changed since then.
It's quite obvious that the tremendous one point premiums paid in these higher grades is for an improvement in quality that amounts to the absence of a few miniscule marks and/or other very slight improvements. I've got no problem with someone paying these premiums but I don't agree (my personal perspective) that the differences are as significant as they are touted to be by some. I think the wording in the grading standards guides makes that clear. If we're talking accurately grade coins the difference between a 67 and 68 or a 68 and 69 is a couple of miniscule marks and/or a very, very slight difference in luster and eye appeal. That's by definition and I didn't make-up the definitions.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
Wow! This thread taken off like "Mr Toad's Wild Ride" at a Six Flags Theme Park!!!
Thanks to the many of you who have contributed your honest opinions, perceptions, observations and experiences of the coin collecting hobby and the coin collecting marketplace. Many of the posts have compared and contrasted two end member groups: pure collectors vs. pure investors.
Your replies have been constructive and have helped to confirm and define that there are many different type of coin collectors who derive satisfaction from the hobby in different ways. Some collect without any concern about whether or not they are making a good investment of their funds. While others are most aware of the investment potential of their purchases, with the intent to resell their coins.
I guess that I'm a moderate because I love my coins, but I'm hesitant to (and rarely do) pay large premiums over Greysheet Bid/Ask spreads for my own personal coin purchases. I buy the coin because I like it, but I try to use the market prices to gauge my own purchases. However I do agree with several posts that true collectors do not primarily make their buying decisions on the coin's investment potential.
I personally tend to purchase in what I feel is the highest "cost-effective grade" before the coin price takes a big jump up in the next higher grade. I purchase my coins from a more "value-oriented" perpective, which works for me -- but doesn't necessarily work for many others.
One thing for sure, is that this thread has struck many nerves. I think that's because we are all very passionate about our hobby, and we are all also very firm (and opinionated) in our convictions.
I will now reply to some of the specific points made in your posts, as requested, and as I have promised, starting with the earlier posts and working my way through them in chronological order (first to last):
TradeDollarNut: I agree with your comment that "large prices paid for grade differentials is simply a matter of quality conscious collectors really wanting a certain coin because of the quality of the coin"
Oreville: Thanks for your very thorough and well thought out post -- I'll reply to your points in the order that you enumerated them:
1) I agree with you that the collecting public started the craze towards condition rarities. However I also feel that the grading services have helped to facilitate this by grading in very minute high end step-grade incremental categories (MS-68/69) by which we measure and compare our coins vs. perfection.
2) I agree that many want the finest coins available. That's not how I enjoy the hobby. But OK for others.
3) I agree that quanity can be boring, and that quality is important. I've learned that by accumulating alot of really pretty MS-63 & MS-64 early S-mint Morgan Dollars. As some say, that's the difference between an accumulation of coins, and a coin collection.
Things do move in cycles. I remember the "roll market" mania of the 1970's (quantity) which cratered eventually. That usually happens in thinly traded markets when things are being pumped...
4) Competition is good for the hobby. Some collect to compete, and some compete by collecting.
5) I like your rule of thumb concept of generally not paying more than 3x the next lower grade. It helps you maintain a conservative value approach for how much you are willing to spend on (or invest in) a coin.
You sound like a collecting moderate with a purchasing philosophy similar to mine...
Keets: I agree with your comment that the grading services have responded to the needs of the marketplace. I also agree that modern commemoratives and bullion coins are collected in high grades.
After reconsidering, I probably should have said that some coin dealers are heavily promoting high-end coins, some of whom have close symbiotic relationships with a particular grading service.
It's up to the collector of these coins to make their own decisions as to what has value for them to collect and what they enjoy collecting..
Thanks again for a very lively debate and discussion ....
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>Yes, an expert and A rated player, or A and B rated player, or whatever are sometimes very similar in strength and may only be seperated by just a few insignificant rating points, just like an MS64.9 coin vs. an MS65.1 coin.
dragon >>
""HEY"" ARE WE COLLECTING COINS, OR PLAYING CHESS!!!
It's quite obvious that the tremendous one point premiums paid in these higher grades is for an improvement in quality that amounts to the absence of a few miniscule marks and/or other very slight improvements. I've got no problem with someone paying these premiums but I don't agree (my personal perspective) that the differences are as significant as they are touted to be by some. I think the wording in the grading standards guides makes that clear. If we're talking accurately grade coins the difference between a 67 and 68 or a 68 and 69 is a couple of miniscule marks and/or a very, very slight difference in luster and eye appeal. That's by definition and I didn't make-up the definitions. >>
Whatever the definition, the fact remains that even a layman can quickly learn to differentiate several levels of quality. With practice and knowledge this can be expanded considerably.
Moderns are very much easier to grade, or stated another way moderns are much less often in the levels of preservation in which old coins are often found. The only modern that one is likely to encounter with a rub, for instance, is the '83-P quarter. No modern is often encountered with doctored or unoriginal surfaces. I've seen only one whizzed clad coin in over thirty years of collecting and studying these coins. Rel- atively few moderns even have toning and it's rarely unattractive since such coins tend to be placed in circulation.
The range in strike characteristics for regular issue moderns is huge. Please read this sentence again... The range for strike characteristics in regular issue moderns is huge. Perhaps of far greater importance is that MOST REGULAR ISSUE MODERNS HAVE POOR STRIKES. Before a coin gets up into the range that you (and the ANA) claim have tiny differences in quality a modern regular issue coin is already quite uncommon by virtue of the fact that it has a good strike.
The range in the number and severity of contact marks on most regular issue moderns is also huge. Again most modern coins are eliminated as possible gems in many cases long before one can quibble whether they are MS-66 or MS-67.
Indeed there would likely be no very high grade regular issue moderns due to the improbability of finding coins with both a good strike and clean surfaces if not for the fact that there is some correlation between strike quality and cleanliness of the coins in mint sets and the vast numbers of coins which were issued in rolls and bags. This is not to say that those rolls and bags are just waiting to be checked. They most assuredly are not. They were checked many years ago and the inferior pieces were put into circulation because of the opportunity costs of saving coin for extend- ed periods. Talk to the people who checked these coins. Many will tell you that the typical bag of some issues yielded no keepers at all. With some of the Ikes it wasn't unusual for every single ex- ample in a bag to appear to be Very Fine.
Now couple these FACTS with the fact that there were a mere handful of people who had any inter- est in these coins at the time. Even if someone actually found a bag of gems (a virtual impossibility), how many of the coins do you think he'd set aside when the money was paying 15% in bank accounts?
These coins are just simply not out there. The huge mintages have been whittled down by many years of high attrition and the coins themselves have been whittled down in circulation.
Do these facts make these coins valuable or a good investment? By no means. These facts only imply that some of these coins are scarce or rare in high grade. It requires demand, which requires collec- tors to make the coins of greater value. It requires time for the collectors to learn which of these is rare and which he just hasn't happened to see yet. It requires time for the number of collectors to grow sufficiently to create a viable market in coins which are poorly studied. And it will require time for participants in these new markets to gain the confidence to pay "exorbitant" prices for the coins.
Obviously none of these things have to happen and trends can get run over by all manner of real life and natural phenomena. It's also true that if too many are expecting this to happen that it can create a sort of self fullfilling prophesy as some scramble to position themselves in a market which doesn't yet exist. This can have disasterous consequences for those who are seeking quick profits and easy money.
So if you want to invest, stick with stocks or realestate. If you insist on investing in coins then you may well be better off with the tried and true rarities and desirable coins from the 19th century. But if you enjoy collecting coins off the beaten path, if you enjoy seeking some of the best, if you think collecting coins which have many rarities in circulation then I'd strongly recommend modern coins. ...And it's hardly impossible that they'll represent one of the best investments you've ever made.
"Whatever the definition, the fact remains that even a layman can quickly learn to differentiate several levels of quality. With practice and knowledge this can be expanded considerably."
As far as I'm concerned that's never been in doubt although some on this forum that play in the area of 20x ~ 100x one point premiums would strongly disagree with you.
"The range in the number and severity of contact marks on most regular issue moderns is also huge. Again most modern coins are eliminated as possible gems in many cases long before one can quibble whether they are MS-66 or MS-67."
That's probably the case and my guess would whatever 66's ~ 68's that are made came from Mint Sets.
But however they are made these "rarities" are set apart from their 500,000,000 "brothers" by what amounts to a few marks and/or minor other differences.
Am I going to pay an extra $500 or $1,000 or $5,000 to avoid a couple of marks the size of the period at the end of this sentence? No. And typically that's what it comes down to when the 20x ~ 100x one point premiums are paid.
. . = $5,000
Unfortunately I couldn't find a way to depict very slight variations in strike or luster but essential the same applies to those characteristics when we're discussion MS-67 ~ 70 coins.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
But however they are made these "rarities" are set apart from their 500,000,000 "brothers" by what amounts to a few marks and/or minor other differences.
>>
...and the fact that the majority of their 500,000,000 brothers now reside in land fills or have been recycled. Of those remaining the overwhelming majority are now BOTH poorly made AND highly worn.
...then too I suppose that it's difficult for some to see variation in things which they hold in no esteem.
...and I never suggested that large premiums are good, bad or indifferent, but set by supply and demand and merely a fact of life.
<< <i>Right on Stuart, "BUY THE HOLES" not modern slabs. Regards, MapMaker >>
What do you collect now, Mapmaker? >>
I collect only Statehood Quarters now and its a lot of fun. I have many maps left over and I give some away to Youth Groups and promote Youth in Numimatics at our local coin club in Oceanside CA. I have all the back issues of State Quarters and supply many friends and young people with them. My Display Map has spaces for all 100 quarters and adhesive 5/8" stick on squares to "Fun" collect out of circulation. I will send anyplace in U.S if board members have any youngsters that may want one. Juut PM me and pay $5 for priority mail & handling. I will donate the $1.15 Handling charge to charity and take the loss. ( Supply limited in case I get to many requests) I am really having a ball getting kids into the hobby. Thanks for asking. Regards, MapMaker.
P.S. To Any one out there in the San Diego AREA: If you know any youngsters who might get interested in collecting come visit us at the Elks Club Wed. Oct. 8th. as the Oceanside / Carlsbad Coin Club is having a Youth Auction. Some very nice items starting at 1 cent for kids under 18 only. It will be fun. Regards, MapMaker.
"...and the fact that the majority of their 500,000,000 brothers now reside in land fills or have been recycled."
The vast majority could very well reside in a landfill but if even 0.1% survive and a fraction of those survive in MS condition were still talking about thousand of coins.
I can recognize the variations (not so hard to do) but the variations are minute and when judge in light of the coin as a whole they do not IMHO account for 99% of the coins value.
In my book ".." never equals $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
I posted this on Cladkings thread about why no one bashes classic coins - but I thinks it's also just as appropriate for Stuart's thread on today's coin market.
<< Believe it or not one can drool over moderns >>
Cladking - no argument from me on that issue - I like Pr DCam LHCs & Frankies & Washington quarters, etc, etc (not Ikes & SBAs though - but for aesthetic reasons - they just aren't very attractive - although I did see a toned Pr Ike with great colors & a cameo look - it was a drooly) -& I have collected & still have collections of these coins - even the Ikes
- BUT if I'm gonna spend $39K it won't be on a coin of which 3 Million were made & most are still available in the original sealed mint holders - I don't care if PCGS calls it a "PR100DCam with angelic toning floating on its pristine surfaces never touched by human hands even when it slipped from its sonically sealed mint plastic to the confines a special gold plated PCGS slab"- it's not a rare coin - it's a common coin - & even as the finest one graded (and even if there was a written guarantee that PCGS has viewed everyone of the 3 Million made, & promised never to grade one higher), its still not rare.
BUT I'd spend $39K in a heartbeat for a few of those wonderful and very rare patterns that Rick Kay has for sale, or for an 1893-S Morgan (though I'm not sure how nice the Morgan would be at $39K) or any number of Proof $5 or $10 gold Libs where the mintages are less than 50 coins & maybe 5-10 have survived - because in addition to being coins that you can drool over, they are excessively rare coins. I would guess, but I haven't added them up, that there are less total gold proof coins minted prior to 1915 of ALL gold coins minted by the US Mint, than there are Proof 1963 Lincoln pennies currently available to purchase.
So, although I like and collect some of the modern coins, what I want to own are rare coins that exemplify the coiners art - I'd take every one of those coins in Jeff Garrett's 100 greatest coins & think that I'd died and gone to heaven. I collect all coins, from ancient greek gold staters to some of the most recent State quarters - but if I'm gonna spend real money - its goes for real rarities - not coins where the rarity is based solely some grader's opinion that it looks better that the other 3 million examples & he assigns an artificial number that gives only the "appearance" of rarity.
I don't think the debate is about modern coins vs. classic coins, both are equally collectible. I think the real debate is where are the RARITIES with real value - & bashing modern coins or classic coins only serves to hide the real issue.
Collecting eye-appealing Proof and MS Indian Head Cents, 1858 Flying Eagle and IHC patterns and beautiful toned coins.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Newmismatist
How disingenuous to use as ones example perhaps the silliest purchase in the history of coins IMHO - NOT TO MENTION A CLASSIC COIN FROM 1963 (MOST STATE MODERNS START IN 1965 BUT THEY CONVENIENTLY USE 1963 AS A "MODERN" WHEN IT SUITS THEM) . It would be like finding the fellow who bought the most rediculous pattern coin purchase (like a $1,000 coin some guy paid $40,000 for) in the history of the world and using that example on a daily basis to argue that pattern coins sucked. THINK ABOUT IT HOW SILLY THE REFERENCE IS
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<<BUT I'd spend $39K in a heartbeat for a few of those wonderful and very rare patterns that Rick Kay has for sale, or for an 1893-S Morgan (though I'm not sure how nice the Morgan would be at $39K) or any number of Proof $5 or $10 gold Libs where the mintages are less than 50 coins & maybe 5-10 have survived - because in addition to being coins that you can drool over, they are excessively rare coins. I would guess, but I haven't added them up, that there are less total gold proof coins minted prior to 1915 of ALL gold coins minted by the US Mint, than there are Proof 1963 Lincoln pennies currently available to purchase...but if I'm gonna spend real money - its goes for real rarities - not coins where the rarity is based solely some grader's opinion that it looks better that the other 3 million examples & he assigns an artificial number that gives only the "appearance" of rarity.>>
People should feel free to collect whatever they want. Hey, I collected baseball cards in my misspent youth and early adulthood. What a waste of time and money, in retrospect, but I had a lot of fun at the time. Nothing could be more worthless now. (Note to state quarter collectors--baseball cards may be an example of what may happen in a market when supply exceeds demand over time. Which are still valuable? The "classic" Babe Ruths, Lou Gehrigs, Honus Wagners, Joe Jacksons, etc. held their value the best.)
There were 3 million plus Lincoln cents minted and most survive today. There are estimated to be 10,000 Dahlonega gold coins of all dates and denominations currently extant. Which would I rather own, a pop top 1963 Lincoln penny or a pop top pre-1861 Dahlonega half eagle (both about $39,000, though the half eagle may/may not be less expensive)? Well, you know what I collect.
That said, I would in no way interfere with anyone else collecting $39,000 Lincoln cents than I would castigate someone collecting baseball cards. In fact, I prefer big money chasing coins I do not collect, so that it stays away from areas that I do collect. Or as Lucy would say, "More Dahlonega half eagles for me!"
Edited after reading Wondercoin's reply. Other modern pop tops could be subbed for the '63 Lincoln without significantly altering the point.
I have a feeling if we got on a long private disscussion on coins we would probably agree on more issues then disagree.
If the main reason I spent money on coins was to make money, I would pull out everything right now because eye appeal coins are bringing great money at signature sales.
But if the defenition of being a "pure collector" is not caring what my coins are worth when I buy them, I would certainly then admit I am not a pure collector because I would not knowingly pay someone 50 % or more of a profit margin because I love a coin. Also while I have no children, it's a dumb analogy to compare the worth of a coin to that of a child.
I have paid above sheet for many of my coins, but I don't go off the deep end with what I pay, maybe if I was rich I wouldn't care. I think it is unreasonable to excpect a hard working honost dealer with effort and overhead costs to find me good stuff for 10 % [I know some people are like that]. But whats wrong with wanting value for my money ?
I don't excpect my coins to make me rich or I would buy stocks instead, thats not why I collect coins, but really nice coins of the caliber I like cost alot of money, so if I'm value consious, I can get more of them.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
"Edited after reading Wondercoin's reply. Other modern pop tops could be subbed for the '63 Lincoln without significantly altering the point."
Yes they could. For example, I could tell you about a couple 20th century coins I sold for under $20,000 a couple years back that are trading at $130,000+ today. But, I'm felling pain just writing these words down, so I better stop
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
RYK: Interestingly enough (and slightly off topic) I actually still have my baseball card collection from when I was a kid. We found it stashed away in an old U.S. Keds shoe box about 10 years ago.
I have a mint almost complete set of 1967 & 1968 cards including the 1967 Mickey Mantle and lots of other Hall of Famers.
Since I grew up in Atlanta, I used to trade for Hank Aaron cards... The best rade that I EVER made was for a 1962 Mickey Mantle Triple Crown Year Card.
I paid 1 cent per card when I bought them in bubble gum wax packs, and they are worth alot more now.
But the best part is that when we found that box full of baseball (and football) cards, I recovered a bit of my childhood with lots of great memories of collecting all of those wonderful cards...
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Stuart, (definitely OT) my original boyhood collection from precisely 1970-1978 was discarded, and I spent the middle and late 1980's trying to recreate it and more. I still have many of those cards from the second go around, and they are fun to peruse. The newer cards (1985-89) remind me of my med school days when card collecting was HOT and a nice diversion from the school grind. The 70's cards bring me back to the carefree boyhood days when about the most exciting annual event was the first day cards were available in the spring. The even older cards, I have cards as early as the teens, take me back to the eras of my parents' childhood and earlier, when baseball truly was a game, and the athletes were regular people, a time I never lived firsthand.
Do the cards have value? You bet. Just not the dollars and cents kind. No doubt, eventually they will end up in some dumpster.
The fascination with common modern issues does share some parallels with the baseball card boom of the 80's. Some people made money...some made a lot of money, but many got stuck holding the bag.
The fascination with common modern issues does share some parallels with the baseball card boom of the 80's. Some people made money...some made a lot of money, but many got stuck holding the bag. >>
Let's see, are there really any parallels? The cards were made in huge numbers originally in the 50's, 60's, and 70's. And few of them survived. These became avidly pursued by huge numbers of collectors beginning in the late 1970's. Despite their being much more common than many thought they soared in price because of a tremendous demand. There were ads for base- ball cards in every newspaper and shops for the cards sprang up even moderately sized towns. There were weeklies and bid sheets and many millions of people involved. Producers siezed on this as an opportunity to flood the market with a barage of new mass produced cards sold at steep premiums. The market eventually collapsed under its own weight.
You've got to be kidding!!! There are no parallels here. Most of the diminishing number of coin shops don't even stock moderns for fear of alienating their real customers. Only just this year has the first price guide appeared anywhere in print which suggests that some rare moderns might actually have a little premium to face value. I've never heard of a modern coin store and the only dealers who specialize in these are a handfull on the net. (I wouldn't be surprised if there are a hundred card dealers on the net even today for each modern coin dealer). The CDN doesn't even list any prices for any moderns above about MS-62!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Only the general public is in- terested in moderns at this grade level but this is what there is a ready market in. The US mint, possibly in an attempt to shore up the aging coin collectors, has taken the opportunity to mass produce vast numbers of new coins that are available to anybody at face value.
Perhaps in the future it will be possible to draw some parallels here, but there are few who would want this and probably no one here.
Great points in the original post, and all around.
While the registry craze certainly is certainly appealing to many collectors and is clearly responsible for the high prices paid for coins in the PR or MS 69-70 range, I don't see it ever totally dominating the hobby. I've known too many dealers and collectors who either don't care about it, or refuse to be a part of it.
<< <i>How disingenuous to use as ones example perhaps the silliest purchase in the history of coins IMHO - NOT TO MENTION A CLASSIC COIN FROM 1963 (MOST STATE MODERNS START IN 1965 BUT THEY CONVENIENTLY USE 1963 AS A "MODERN" WHEN IT SUITS THEM) . It would be like finding the fellow who bought the most rediculous pattern coin purchase (like a $1,000 coin some guy paid $40,000 for) in the history of the world and using that example on a daily basis to argue that pattern coins sucked. THINK ABOUT IT HOW SILLY THE REFERENCE IS >>
Wonder coin, I disagree with your premise that Moderns start in 1965 - THat's true for Roosies & Wash Quarters where the metal content went from silver to clad. But modern Lincolns start with the change to the Lincoln Memorial reverse in 1959 - The coin albums reflect this, as does the Registry sets - so you can't throw that 1963 into the classics, tain't - it's modern. But that's NOT an isolated example: If you were a new collector/investor the following would be good advice for someone who wanted to start collecting coins: 1. Collect something that has high demand. 2. Try & get the best grade you can afford. 3. Buy only PCGS slabbed coins - they are the most reliaible the msot accurately graded & over time will hold their value
Now so you know, I do not disagree with any of the above, I think more can be added to each of those statement, but none of the above statements is "bad" advice, But let's see what would happened if our "Novice Numismatist (NN for short)" blindly followed this advice w/o further thought:
He decides to collect Lincoln Memorial cents, because Lincoln pennies are the most widely collected series with thousands of collectors (some very knowledgeable like Stewart Blay, some novices just like NN). As soon as that's completed, he'll start on the earlier dates. Also, he likes the looks of this "classic" coin. He sees that there are many Registry sets and it is a "doable" series. One month before the 2002 ANA he inherits a very sizeable sum of money - he buys a bunch of books about Lincoln cents, reads them, and off he goes to the ANA, money in hand. He sees hundreds of dealers and is dazed and confused. Unsure of himself in navagating the bourse floor, he attends a Heritage signature sale, registers and gets a bidder card, and starting with the first lot he watches so he can learn the ropes. One thing catches his attention - there is a lot of bidding activity - there are real under-bidders and our NN waits patiently for the Lincoln memorial cents and takes the plunge. Following the sage advice of many whom he has consulted, he goes after the top pop coins in the series he has selected (Proof Lincoln Memorial cents), and he limits himself to PCGS coins only as he has heard from many dealers that he should stay away from coins graded by other grading services. In the process he resolves to list his set on the registry as soon as it is complete. He buys some coins at the 2002 ANA & deligently continues his quest. Exactly one year later, at the Baltimore ANA, he completes his set of 46 proof Lincoln Memorial cents - it certainly would be a top registry set as NN was able to acquire top pop coins for all but 10 coins. Every coin was bought in auction and every coin had an under-bidder. Of the coins he has purchased the following are his stats: 1959-1986 Top Pop coins with none higher all but 2 coins (1959 & 1964) 1987-2003 Top Pop coins with none higher for all but 8 coins, (1987, 1988, 1990, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002 & 2003) only because he didn't see any come up in any of the Heritage Auctions (NN is a very loyal fellow) Cost for these 46 coins (every coin a real sale & can be verified on Heritage's auction Archives: ( I bet everyone knows where this is going by now - but this figure may surprise a lot of people) $141,429. An average of $3,075 for each coin (and yes our lucky NN got that POP 1 1963 Pr70DCam penny - spots and all) Here's his set:
Grading Purchase Top Pop/# Available Date Grade Service Cost Date # Better
Total $141,429 (Average cost per coin $3,075) If you omit his 8 non-top pop coins from 1987 onward ( which only average about $55 each) his average cost for the other 38 coins is about $3,700 per coin.
The problem with NN's collection is that he doesn't own a single rare coin! Probably the lowest mintage is the the 1959 Cent with only 1.1 Million, & all left the mint in sealed plastic, as did every other one of these coins. (I haven't checked, but I would bet that not many of those dates have less than 3 million made for each date)
Lets take this little hypothetical one step further: Suppose NN was satisfied with the next lower grade - how much would he have spent?
$1,306 and about 10 coins would be in the exact same grade as the top pop collection listed above -
Query: which course is the best road for NN to take in his collecting endeavors? (To make this even more interesting, if NN had not listened to the sage advice he was given and simply dilegently searched for mint sealed proof sets, he could have purchased every coin listed above AND every other coin that came with the Lincoln penny in each of those proof sets for about $750 TOTAL, (perhaps as high as $1000 as there are a bunch of special proof sets & I'm not sure whether the Lincoln cent is in the special sets) with every coin sealed in plastic. check out the CDN Greysheet if you don't believe it)
So the question is not: Should NN collect modern coins? The question to be considered is: HOW should our intrepid NN collect modern coins?
So no one confuses this with bashing modern coins or registry sets. I have collected top pop coins, I have had a #1 registry set (Proof IHCs) & I have thoroughly enjoyed collecting them. I would put together a nice set of Lincoln memorial proof pennies, but if you gave me $140,000 I would have a lot of change left over - & I'd start working on one of those pattern coiled hair stellas, or a high grade 1793 Large cent or some wonderful proof gold coins, an 1895 Morgan, a set of Matte Proof Lincolns, etc, etc, etc. But I would not waste over $140,000 buying common coins. I'm quite certain someone could put together this same scenerio for other top pop modern coins, & I bet you could spend a Million dollars & own the same thing that a YN would own if he carefully purchased one of each proof set from 1950 to date - the earlier ones would be tough, but I saw a nice 1953 set and 4 nice 1954 sets at LB for greysheet bid, so with the exception of the 1950-1952, I know this would be very doable, fun & maybe quite profitable. Would they all be top pop DCams - certainly not, but it would still be a very impressive set of coins, especially if our intrepid NN actually sat down , learned to grade coins and looked at a lot of mint sealed proof sets - he might have fun, his downside would be minimal, and he might make some money on his collection if he learned to be selective and grade coins -
The last piece of advice that I'd give to NN is: Buy rare coins, not rare plastic. If that last bit of advice was followed, NN would have almost $140,000 left over to start his next series - not a bad grub stake.
But that's JMHO
Collecting eye-appealing Proof and MS Indian Head Cents, 1858 Flying Eagle and IHC patterns and beautiful toned coins.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Newmismatist
As the average Joe collector $140,000 is major money and the alternate scenerio given by Newmismatist is where I live. If your name is Gates or Buffet the $140,000 is an afternoons spending change. This is true whether Mr. Gates or Buffet are spending the money as a pure collector not caring about recouping their money or risking the money on speculation that a strong future market will be in place when it's time to sell and make a profit on the sale. That can easily afford that risk.
For the vast majority of collectors IMHO the risk are too great (there are many other ways to invest that are far less risky) and when paying the tremendous premiums for the top pops you are paying a lot of money for very small (by definition miniscule) differences. If that's the focus for some that's fine. Maybe some have the resources to grab hold of the broad spectrum of interesting aspects of numismatics AND put a major focus on those minute details. If you're in that position that's great. But for most collectors IMHO wisdom dictates a more conservative approach to buying whether we're talking modern or classics.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
Newmismatist: Excellent post, though there are some flawed assumptions. The greatest of which is that memorial cents are in high demand. Five years ago there were virtually no collectors of these coins. Even today you'll find many dozens of people who collect the pre- 1959 cents before finding one who collects the later. True, I'm noy counting the many people who collect these from pocket change. While these are real collectors collecting real coins they have no effect on the market until they actually buy a coin.
Modern coins are a FAR larger field than merely proof cents. There are varieties (including three major proof cents), there are eight different series of regular issue coins (And 25 states quarters), There are numerous commems and special issues, they have been struck in 10 different metallic compositions including three clads, there are three separate series of bullion coins and a series which wasn't monetized. There are numerous moderns which were NEVER SOLD BY THE MINT. The only way to obtain these coins was in circulation. Many of the varieties have still to this day not been reported or have not actually been listed in any reference. If you want an example of one of these you will not find a pop top in a pcgs slab or anywhere else in some cases other than in circulation. Those who keep talking about how common moderns are would be well advised to actually look at a few of them. They are found in circulation and not only are they often pathetic there are some which are very difficult to find. A 1968-S cent for example was put in circulation- - try to find one.
High grade proof cents truly are rare coins. These are not my "cup of tea" but those who find them interesting AND can actually spot the difference in quality might well want to collect them. I person- ally think there are many other moderns with far greater potential, but NO ONE KNOWS. Who would have thought five years ago that it would ever be possible to spend $140,000 on a set of these?
If I were going to assemble this set, I'd poke through proof sets looking for the best coins. It would cost a substantial amount of time and effort and more than a little cash to find the best coins. When I was done the coins would in most cases be just slightly lower quality than the slabbed coins. There would be more than a little money left and I'd have had a blast looking. But what about people for whom this isn't a viable alternative? Some people with this kind of money find that it is time which is more precious to them. There are people who don't have access to large quantities of sets to look through. And there are people who prefer the experience of picking these coins off on E-bay much more than cherry picking sets. And there are those who simply insist on the very best.
It always boils down to what it always does-- to each his own, and prices are set by supply and demand. It doesn't matter one whit if one knowledgeable collector believes these coins are indistinguisable in high grade. It doesn't matter that most of the hobby is screaming in unison that all these coins are a sucker bet. The only thing that matters is what people are willing to pay or accept in payment for coins.
One would do well to think about the fact that the hobby considers these grossly overpriced. If so many believe this then who's buying the coins. If the hobby disparages collecting these coins now that many have gained substantial value, then who bothered to set them aside when they were just junk. And there- in lies the reason that many of these coins are high priced- - no one bothered to save any.
"Wonder coin, I disagree with your premise that Moderns start in 1965"
Newmistmatist: Great post! A couple things you should know:
1. I have stated my belief that "moderns" begin as early as 1932 since the day I got to these boards. Let's just say, I have not seen much of a following adopting my view - so if it is 1965 (or any other date), so be it. ISN'T IT FUNNY THAT WE SPEAK OF "MODERN BASHERS" AND WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT A "MODERN" COIN OR SERIES EVEN IS!!
2. Personally, I ran from the 1970's to date proof70 Lincolns YEARS AGO. OK - perhaps a bit too early as coins I happily sold for a few hundred dollars then did trade for thousands of dollars. Recently (like in a day or two ago), I got into a pretty good battle on the Registry Board (come visit) when I seriously questioned a 1999(s) and 2000(s) Lincoln in PR70DC appearing to sell for close to $20,000/pair OR 1000X the price of the undergrade PR69DC coins which in my book are roughly $10-$15/coins!!! In fact, I alerted "pmh1nic" of this point on a thread, but, he never picked up on it 1000x jump in price for a 1999 and 2000 proof coin - JUST LIKE BILL JONES AND HIS $28,000 CONTINENTAL DOLLAR STORY, OR IF SOMEONE WOULD BUY AN 1886(o) MORGAN DOLLAR IN MS65 FOR $140,000 THAT WAS TRULY AN MS64 COIN WORTH $5,000 - SOMETIMES YOU JUST HAVE TO COMMENT, IF YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN. And, hey - it is just my opinion and I could be proven 100% wrong. Perhaps these PR70 cents will go to $20,000/coin 2 years from now - who am I to say. I was the "fool" that sold my proof Lincolns from the 1970's and 1980's for a couple hundred a coin a couple years ago and then watched a couple rise to $5,000-$10,000/coin as I sat in a Heritage auction room in disbelief
Anyway, Numismatist, if you read my comment here and find that we are still debating any particular point, let me know and I'll be happy to address it.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>But if the defenition of being a "pure collector" is not caring what my coins are worth when I buy them, I would certainly then admit I am not a pure collector because I would not knowingly pay someone 50 % or more of a profit margin because I love a coin. >>
i believe the measure of a "true collector" can never, ever be measured in numbers, because numbers don't matter if you desire something strongly enough. therefore, accounting terms, like "50% profit", etc, mean nothing to me, for coins i collect, because those terms are derived exclusively from numbers.
<< <i>Also while I have no children, it's a dumb analogy to compare the worth of a coin to that of a child. >>
that's part of my point - that "value" is really meaningless if you have something for the love of it.
i really, truly do love my coins. it's a different love than that of my children, but it is real love. that's why i say when i pay 10x retail for a coin, it doesn't have the slightest concern for me, because "dollars" are truly fleeting, whereas the payback i get from enjoying what i love is infininte.
<< <i>I have paid above sheet for many of my coins, but I don't go off the deep end with what I pay, maybe if I was rich I wouldn't care. I think it is unreasonable to excpect a hard working honost dealer with effort and overhead costs to find me good stuff for 10 % [I know some people are like that]. But whats wrong with wanting value for my money ? >>
NOTHING is wrong w/ that!!! my point, though, is that some folks can ONLY estimate "value" in terms of "money". is the only payback you get from owning a coin measurable in terms of dollars?
<< <i>really nice coins of the caliber I like cost alot of money, so if I'm value consious, I can get more of them. >>
although my coin collection is pretty danged extensive, if i were limited to only ever owning five coins, i could still be happy, so long as they are coins i truly love
lemme ask you this. how much did your wedding ring cost? would your wife let you sell it for 10% more than you paid for it? double? would she be all right if you hocked it for five-times it's original monetary value? let's say you promised here you'd buy 1 just like it to replace it, would it be all right to sell it for 10x it's retail value, is that ok? you might say that coins don't compare to a spouse, & you'd be right, BUT love is love, & yes, someone can love their coins as much as they love their wife, just a different kind of love. that's how i feel about the coins in my collection.
Some people who sell coins have only one goal in mind, to maximize shareholder wealth. They are the shareholders. That is classic business strategy. It's neither good nor bad until you add the "how" into it.
The issue then becomes how does the seller intend to maximize his wealth. Some sellers are in it for the short term, others the long term. Some think that if they're marketing is good enough, there is an endless stream of suckers they can live off of. Others want long term relationships with buyers they intend to take care of.
Some feel that they should not attempt to protect buyers from the brutality of market forces - if a high grade modern sells at auction at 40K, well then that's what they're worth and they will do everything they can to market them for even more.
Others feel that even if high grade moderns are selling at auction for major bucks, that they can see the writing on the walls.
Another thing to consider, and no small thing, is the potentially permanent effect registry sets will probably have on top pop coins. 40K for almost perfect moderns may be worth that forever and maybe even more because of the registry sets, and also because the grading services may have an eye towards supporting the market by not grading another top pop coin, which I think happens infrequently - gotta give the submitters a motivation to submit.
Anyway, while it would shock me to see an investment fund investing in high grade moderns as opposed to classic rarities, such would be an arguably educated nod towards the modern market. I don't thing that is going to happen but i have been shocked by many things before.
So, anyway, some coins sell for major bucks when they in my opinion should not, and other really desirable coins sell for fractions. Personally, there are several old sayings which come to mind......a sucker is born every minute......a fool and his money will soon part.....and....caveat emptor.
I find it interesting that some of the most influential and insightful coin people sells quite a few "top pop" coins. I can think of two that I think i know who are decent people.
Maybe they just like moderns and that is all there is to it. Maybe if the market collapses they will be hit the hardest. Interesting thought, there, eh?
Maybe all of us classic coin lovers are missing the boat. I don't think so...at least not me as i'm not primarily in it for the money.
Maybe moderns are topped out. I'm not sure quite frankly - don't underestimate man's search for meaning and significance ("Who am I - why let me tell you! I have the finest set of Lincoln sets dating from 1940 until 1945!......in the world! No one beats me in my little corner! When it somes to Lincolns from 1940 until 1945 I AM THE KING!!!!!")
Maybe they are just in their infancy.
Personally, the feeling I get is the feeling i had when the Dow crested 12500 and the NASDAQ went over 5000. But, the buying and selling of moderns isn't like the stock market where dramatic things can happen in a heart beat. If moderns crest and sag, it will be a trend that occurs over time to some degree.
(Sorry if i went a little afar off of your topic....)
The number of modern collectors in the future is tough to predict, but due to the very nature of the coins and their distribution in the various grades, it is likely they will always be collected in high grade by many of those collecting them. As (or if) the number of collectors continues to increase there will be a substantial change in the pricing for most all the high grade issues rather than merely the pop tops.
<< <i> I think that today's oversold market sectors include coins that are being heavily marketed by some of the the grading services (i.e. Registry Sets) to encourage people to become overly condition census conscious -- with the effect of influencing them to pay phenomenal and (to some) unjustified markups on condition rarities of common coins. >>
Stuart - the TPGS don't market coins - they sell OPINIONS - if people want to buy opinions as if they are playing a slot machine, how are you going to discourage them? - It's the prospect of a "huge" payoff that keeps the customers feeding the quarters into the machine.
<< <i> I feel that as a result people are overly focusing on condition rarities of otherwise very common coins, rather than date, type or series rarities. The key here is that the grading services are the ones who make the rules because they determine and assign the grades to the coins (like MS68/69 or PF-68/69).
I applaud the grading services' very successful marketing approach which promotes and appeals to our very competitive nature in an environment that thrives in America today, in gambling & competitive sports, etc. They are turning passive collectors into active competitors, and are helping to keep score of the "winners" through registry sets. >>
It's the same reson why someone will literally risk there life to climb Mt. Everest, it's why people bet on horse races, - it's not the oldest "profession", (the urge to gamble and be #1) but close!
Collecting eye-appealing Proof and MS Indian Head Cents, 1858 Flying Eagle and IHC patterns and beautiful toned coins.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Newmismatist
<< Stuart - the TPGS don't market coins - they sell OPINIONS - if people want to buy opinions as if they are playing a slot machine, how are you going to discourage them? - It's the prospect of a "huge" payoff that keeps the customers feeding the quarters into the machine. >>
Ron: While the TPGS's don't directly and explicitly market coins, they do have a very significant effect on the rare coin market through the marketing of their services for original grades, regrades, etc.
I don't have any interest in either encouraging or discouraging others' and how they enjoy the numismatic hobby. I was simply stating my own personal collecting and investing preferences. It's up to each individual to participate and enjoy this hobby however they wish to.
I was quite frankly surprised to see my thread rejuvenated after a year. Thanks for your post!
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Newmismatist----- That is one of the most completely documented, intelligent and best analyses I have ever seen here or elsewhere. I remember sitting through the Baltimore ANA sale of the Stella Colbert #1 Washington Registry Set and later being astonished at the total for the sale. It wasn't long after that Heritage recieved all my PCGS Washingtons and I moved on to some rarer coins. I kept a few examples where the coin was a joy to own on its own merits though. I think Bowers pointed out recently something to the effect "a conditionally rare common coin is still a common coin". Thoughtfull post.
I remember the moment of clarity I had when I read your above post last year. Rereading it again this year, I relived the moment. Excellent post--one of the HOF posts from these boards.
Wow, when I quickly read this thread, I didn't realize that Stuart had posted it a year ago. It's even more relevent today than it was last year. One thing that we as collectors need to keep in prospective is that collecting coins is first and foremost a hobby that can give each of us and all of us great enjoyment - turning it into a contest of who has the highest "number" really has little to do with the concept of collecting coins for pleasure (and if done well, there is a profit element).
I say this from many years of collecting AND after having put together a #1 registry set (Proof Indian Head Cents) - My #1 registry set is no longer #1, and much of it was sold almost 2 years ago at the FUN show - the same show that the 1963 Pr70RD DCam Lincoln cent sold for $39,600. I could NOT understand the sale of that coin for the price realized. In my very nice collection of Proof IHCs I had an 1871 PR66RD Cam - highest graded, finest known and a coin that I believe will one day be in a Pr67 holder - there were about 900 Total Proof 1871's struck and the total Population of Pr66s was less than half a dozen - no one can buy a bunch of original mint sealed 1871 proof sets and submit them - I've personally seen 20-30 high end Pr65RDs and IMO its unlikely that there is a nicer Pr 1871 IHC that's survived 130+ years. Despite a prior Auction sale price realized of $12,650, My coin did not meet its reserve of $10,500.
In case you're wondering why I liked this particular coin, here's a link to it when it sold in a prior auction.
I knew that there was something totally out of whack when I was told the the very common (and grossly over-graded) 1963 Pr70RD DCam Lincoln cent sold for $39,600! Why? Because someone needed that NUMBER (PR70RD DCAM) to become the owner of the #1 Registry set of Proof Lincoln Memorial Cents. Without actually adding it up, I would take an educated guess that you could buy every prrof set from 1959 to 2003 that has a proof Lincoln Memorial cent (not counting any mint error varieties) for less than $500, and you could complete that endeaver at any modest coin show with no effort other than having to have a large enough briefcase to carry all of the sets. Not a single rare coin in that group, and all availavble in their original mint packaging. Now I will admit that there is a premium for Cameos and Deep Cameos, but there are hundreds, if not thousands in that series and any claim that they are rare is an artifical extrapolation based on the fact that only a fraction of the total mintage has been graded; for the simple reason that for virtually all of these coins the grading fees exceed the value of the coins by many multiples of the coin's value.
Although I enjoy collecting all coins and I would for my own enjoyment put together sets of exceptionally nice modern coins, I think that grading common moderns is something like the dot.com scam of a few years ago - it is literally fed by the urge to hit the jack-pot - I for one can't see any descernable difference between 68's 69's and 70's - (with the exception of the 1963 Pr70RD DCam 1CN which I referenced above, which was an impaired PR64RB coin worth about 25 cents) - There's literally millions of those coins, they all look the same and in the vast majority of cases, they are worth face value plus only a small premium for whomever took the time to pick a nice one out of the 1000s that are readily available.
Well, that's JMHO, and it's probably worth less than two cents - (of course it depends how nice the two cents is )
There are some who might question my consistency in writing the above in view of the fact that I have (and will) pay premium money for exceptional toned Morgan dollars (and even some other nice toned coins). My Answer is quite simple: Those exceptional coins are quite rare and they are unique visual works of art that transcend ordinary coins. By way of example, an exessively rare 1927-D $20 St. Gaudens, looks no different visually from its very common 1927-P counter-part. But my 1880-S Gold, Red and Green Morgan dollar - the "Christmas Tree" that I've posted on these boards, looks like no other Morgan dollar that I've ever seen, and when seen in person, is a breath taking coin. It is to me, why I collect coins - the pleasure of owning a coin that whomever sees it says one word: "WOW"
When someone collects the paper insert inside the plastic, - they are deluding themselves as they are not collecting coins, they are collecting someone else's opinion, nothing more and nothing less; and when they go to sell their collection they may be sorely disappointed. The highest numerical grade rendered by someone as to a coin's grade is an opinion that, while often useful in determining a coin's realtive value, is not a good reason to collect coins - what's inside the plastic, that's the reason to collect coins.
I prefer to collect coins!
Collecting eye-appealing Proof and MS Indian Head Cents, 1858 Flying Eagle and IHC patterns and beautiful toned coins.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Newmismatist
Comments
Those statements regarding various strength players and winning are not accurate
dragon
<< <i>cladking,
Those statements regarding various strength players and winning are not accurate
dragon >>
I stand corrected. It is true that any player can lose when he underestimates his opponent.
<< <i>The buying, selling and grading of coins takes place in a large pond of water which can be called the "coin market". For those who cant swim well or for those who are careless there is abundant opportunity to lose a large portion of money invested, due to the dangers lurking in the pond. When a person pays too much for a coin there is going to be a loss of money to that person, or their heirs. This has nothing to do with the size of a persons pocket book. Wealthy people who dont do their homework will lose money as well as those of more modest means. My advice to anyone who is new to the pond is to stay away from any crazy money deal until they are well schooled in the market. There are several areas of "crazy money" in the pond today. One is the toned coin craze. Another is named in this thread, which is condition census rarities of common coins, not just modern coins. Dont get me wrong, I buy quite a few toned Morgan dollars, but I dont pay crazy money for them. I dont mind paying double bluesheet for say an 1884 in a PCGS 65 holder which has nice original toning, but I wont pay thirty times bluesheet for an 81-S in a 64 holder. Once those particular coins are in the hands of the final buyer, he or she has lost a ton of money. JMHO. >>
This is mostly all true and definitely sound advice. But those who are paying
big money for coins they don't understand are for the main part buying older
coins. Those buying the moderns in high grade have generally been around
the block a few times or are quick learners.
The advice is unnecessary for them.
dragon
<< <i>Yes, an expert and A rated player, or A and B rated player, or whatever are sometimes very similar in strength and may only be seperated by just a few insignificant rating points, just like an MS64.9 coin vs. an MS65.1 coin.
dragon >>
<< <i>Coin collecting is like an auction, pure competition, the Registry just made it more public! I dont care what you collect, there isnt a single one of you that wouldnt trade your set(collection) for the best known. You are all competing whether you know it or not! >>
This isn't entirely untrue, but competition doesn't have to be the driving
motivation or even a major factor in any individual's actions.
Les
<< <i>...for those that say "I don't care what my coins are worth" please sign your name here and the rest of us will try to find coins for you at coin vault profit margins >>
your problem is that you can only see the "worth" of coins in terms of dollars. is that how you'd value, for example, your children? your pet parakeet? how about the furniture in your house, does it's "worth" derive entirely from it's value in dollars, or do you get some "worth" from enjoying the use of it? what about your food, is it's entire "worth" based on how much it cost you? why must everything of "worth" be measured in terms of dollars for you?
i'll say it again, if the only value you find in your coins is based on $, your a sorry excuse for a coin-collector.
<< <i>Coin collecting is like an auction, pure competition, the Registry just made it more public! I dont care what you collect, there isnt a single one of you that wouldnt trade your set(collection) for the best known. You are all competing whether you know it or not! >>
dude, what kind of crack are you snorting??? your babbling goes beyond senseless.
K S
for bears late breakfast. It is not really that easy to identify the minute and subtle differences
between very high MS grades like MS-67 and MS-68.We all know that each grade has three major
sections. The just barely made it bottom third, the average middle third and the premium upper third
of a particular grade. I believe that most collectors can differentiate a coin in these thirds as well as grade
a coin in the lower grades. But between a high end MS-67 and a low end MS-68 is probably beyond my ability
and skill. In specific answer to the origonal question, I try to buy coins in the upper part of the grade. They look
nicer, sell easier and always have a chance to upgrade. Also as an investment, if you buy quality, dont go crazy
in price and hold for a number of years, most such collections will show a reasonable profit as well as a fortune
in enjoyment.
Camelot
That is counter to what all of the grading standards guides convey with respect to the higher MS grades being discussed. Remember our discussion regardig the word "miniscule" in another recent thread? Nothing has changed since then.
It's quite obvious that the tremendous one point premiums paid in these higher grades is for an improvement in quality that amounts to the absence of a few miniscule marks and/or other very slight improvements. I've got no problem with someone paying these premiums but I don't agree (my personal perspective) that the differences are as significant as they are touted to be by some. I think the wording in the grading standards guides makes that clear. If we're talking accurately grade coins the difference between a 67 and 68 or a 68 and 69 is a couple of miniscule marks and/or a very, very slight difference in luster and eye appeal. That's by definition and I didn't make-up the definitions.
Thanks to the many of you who have contributed your honest opinions, perceptions, observations and experiences of the coin collecting hobby and the coin collecting marketplace. Many of the posts have compared and contrasted two end member groups: pure collectors vs. pure investors.
Your replies have been constructive and have helped to confirm and define that there are many different type of coin collectors who derive satisfaction from the hobby in different ways. Some collect without any concern about whether or not they are making a good investment of their funds. While others are most aware of the investment potential of their purchases, with the intent to resell their coins.
I guess that I'm a moderate because I love my coins, but I'm hesitant to (and rarely do) pay large premiums over Greysheet Bid/Ask spreads for my own personal coin purchases. I buy the coin because I like it, but I try to use the market prices to gauge my own purchases. However I do agree with several posts that true collectors do not primarily make their buying decisions on the coin's investment potential.
I personally tend to purchase in what I feel is the highest "cost-effective grade" before the coin price takes a big jump up in the next higher grade. I purchase my coins from a more "value-oriented" perpective, which works for me -- but doesn't necessarily work for many others.
One thing for sure, is that this thread has struck many nerves. I think that's because we are all very passionate about our hobby, and we are all also very firm (and opinionated) in our convictions.
I will now reply to some of the specific points made in your posts, as requested, and as I have promised, starting with the earlier posts and working my way through them in chronological order (first to last):
TradeDollarNut: I agree with your comment that "large prices paid for grade differentials is simply a matter of quality conscious collectors really wanting a certain coin because of the quality of the coin"
Oreville: Thanks for your very thorough and well thought out post -- I'll reply to your points in the order that you enumerated them:
1) I agree with you that the collecting public started the craze towards condition rarities. However I also feel that the grading services have helped to facilitate this by grading in very minute high end step-grade incremental categories (MS-68/69) by which we measure and compare our coins vs. perfection.
2) I agree that many want the finest coins available. That's not how I enjoy the hobby. But OK for others.
3) I agree that quanity can be boring, and that quality is important. I've learned that by accumulating alot of really pretty MS-63 & MS-64 early S-mint Morgan Dollars. As some say, that's the difference between an accumulation of coins, and a coin collection.
Things do move in cycles. I remember the "roll market" mania of the 1970's (quantity) which cratered eventually. That usually happens in thinly traded markets when things are being pumped...
4) Competition is good for the hobby. Some collect to compete, and some compete by collecting.
5) I like your rule of thumb concept of generally not paying more than 3x the next lower grade. It helps you maintain a conservative value approach for how much you are willing to spend on (or invest in) a coin.
You sound like a collecting moderate with a purchasing philosophy similar to mine...
Keets: I agree with your comment that the grading services have responded to the needs of the marketplace. I also agree that modern commemoratives and bullion coins are collected in high grades.
After reconsidering, I probably should have said that some coin dealers are heavily promoting high-end coins, some of whom have close symbiotic relationships with a particular grading service.
It's up to the collector of these coins to make their own decisions as to what has value for them to collect and what they enjoy collecting..
Thanks again for a very lively debate and discussion ....
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
<< <i>Yes, an expert and A rated player, or A and B rated player, or whatever are sometimes very similar in strength and may only be seperated by just a few insignificant rating points, just like an MS64.9 coin vs. an MS65.1 coin.
dragon >>
""HEY"" ARE WE COLLECTING COINS, OR PLAYING CHESS!!!
<< <i>
It's quite obvious that the tremendous one point premiums paid in these higher grades is for an improvement in quality that amounts to the absence of a few miniscule marks and/or other very slight improvements. I've got no problem with someone paying these premiums but I don't agree (my personal perspective) that the differences are as significant as they are touted to be by some. I think the wording in the grading standards guides makes that clear. If we're talking accurately grade coins the difference between a 67 and 68 or a 68 and 69 is a couple of miniscule marks and/or a very, very slight difference in luster and eye appeal. That's by definition and I didn't make-up the definitions. >>
Whatever the definition, the fact remains that even a layman can quickly learn
to differentiate several levels of quality. With practice and knowledge this can
be expanded considerably.
Moderns are very much easier to grade, or stated another way moderns are much
less often in the levels of preservation in which old coins are often found. The only
modern that one is likely to encounter with a rub, for instance, is the '83-P quarter.
No modern is often encountered with doctored or unoriginal surfaces. I've seen only
one whizzed clad coin in over thirty years of collecting and studying these coins. Rel-
atively few moderns even have toning and it's rarely unattractive since such coins
tend to be placed in circulation.
The range in strike characteristics for regular issue moderns is huge. Please read this
sentence again... The range for strike characteristics in regular issue moderns is huge.
Perhaps of far greater importance is that MOST REGULAR ISSUE MODERNS HAVE POOR
STRIKES. Before a coin gets up into the range that you (and the ANA) claim have tiny
differences in quality a modern regular issue coin is already quite uncommon by virtue
of the fact that it has a good strike.
The range in the number and severity of contact marks on most regular issue moderns is
also huge. Again most modern coins are eliminated as possible gems in many cases long
before one can quibble whether they are MS-66 or MS-67.
Indeed there would likely be no very high grade regular issue moderns due to the improbability
of finding coins with both a good strike and clean surfaces if not for the fact that there is some
correlation between strike quality and cleanliness of the coins in mint sets and the vast numbers
of coins which were issued in rolls and bags. This is not to say that those rolls and bags are just
waiting to be checked. They most assuredly are not. They were checked many years ago and the
inferior pieces were put into circulation because of the opportunity costs of saving coin for extend-
ed periods. Talk to the people who checked these coins. Many will tell you that the typical bag of
some issues yielded no keepers at all. With some of the Ikes it wasn't unusual for every single ex-
ample in a bag to appear to be Very Fine.
Now couple these FACTS with the fact that there were a mere handful of people who had any inter-
est in these coins at the time. Even if someone actually found a bag of gems (a virtual impossibility),
how many of the coins do you think he'd set aside when the money was paying 15% in bank accounts?
These coins are just simply not out there. The huge mintages have been whittled down by many years
of high attrition and the coins themselves have been whittled down in circulation.
Do these facts make these coins valuable or a good investment? By no means. These facts only imply
that some of these coins are scarce or rare in high grade. It requires demand, which requires collec-
tors to make the coins of greater value. It requires time for the collectors to learn which of these is
rare and which he just hasn't happened to see yet. It requires time for the number of collectors to
grow sufficiently to create a viable market in coins which are poorly studied. And it will require time
for participants in these new markets to gain the confidence to pay "exorbitant" prices for the coins.
Obviously none of these things have to happen and trends can get run over by all manner of real life
and natural phenomena. It's also true that if too many are expecting this to happen that it can create
a sort of self fullfilling prophesy as some scramble to position themselves in a market which doesn't yet
exist. This can have disasterous consequences for those who are seeking quick profits and easy money.
So if you want to invest, stick with stocks or realestate. If you insist on investing in coins then you may
well be better off with the tried and true rarities and desirable coins from the 19th century. But if you
enjoy collecting coins off the beaten path, if you enjoy seeking some of the best, if you think collecting
coins which have many rarities in circulation then I'd strongly recommend modern coins. ...And it's hardly
impossible that they'll represent one of the best investments you've ever made.
As far as I'm concerned that's never been in doubt although some on this forum that play in the area of 20x ~ 100x one point premiums would strongly disagree with you.
"The range in the number and severity of contact marks on most regular issue moderns is also huge. Again most modern coins are eliminated as possible gems in many cases long before one can quibble whether they are MS-66 or MS-67."
That's probably the case and my guess would whatever 66's ~ 68's that are made came from Mint Sets.
But however they are made these "rarities" are set apart from their 500,000,000 "brothers" by what amounts to a few marks and/or minor other differences.
Am I going to pay an extra $500 or $1,000 or $5,000 to avoid a couple of marks the size of the period at the end of this sentence? No. And typically that's what it comes down to when the 20x ~ 100x one point premiums are paid.
. . = $5,000
Unfortunately I couldn't find a way to depict very slight variations in strike or luster but essential the same applies to those characteristics when we're discussion MS-67 ~ 70 coins
<< <i>
But however they are made these "rarities" are set apart from their 500,000,000 "brothers" by what amounts to a few marks and/or minor other differences.
>>
...and the fact that the majority of their 500,000,000 brothers now reside
in land fills or have been recycled. Of those remaining the overwhelming
majority are now BOTH poorly made AND highly worn.
...then too I suppose that it's difficult for some to see variation in things
which they hold in no esteem.
...and I never suggested that large premiums are good, bad or indifferent,
but set by supply and demand and merely a fact of life.
"BUY THE HOLES" not modern slabs.
Regards, MapMaker
<< <i>Right on Stuart,
"BUY THE HOLES" not modern slabs.
Regards, MapMaker >>
What do you collect now, Mapmaker?
<< <i>
<< <i> your babbling goes beyond senseless(dorkkarl)!
K S >>
Your right, you better leave!
<< <i>
<< <i>Right on Stuart,
"BUY THE HOLES" not modern slabs.
Regards, MapMaker >>
What do you collect now, Mapmaker? >>
I collect only Statehood Quarters now and its a lot of fun. I have many maps left over and I give some away to Youth Groups and promote Youth in Numimatics at our local coin club in Oceanside CA. I have all the back issues of State Quarters and supply many friends and young people with them. My Display Map has spaces for all 100 quarters and adhesive 5/8" stick on squares to "Fun" collect out of circulation. I will send anyplace in U.S if board members have any youngsters that may want one. Juut PM me and pay $5 for priority mail & handling. I will donate the $1.15 Handling charge to charity and take the loss. ( Supply limited in case I get to many requests) I am really having a ball getting kids into the hobby.
Thanks for asking. Regards, MapMaker.
P.S.
To Any one out there in the San Diego AREA: If you know any youngsters who might get interested in collecting come visit us at the Elks Club Wed. Oct. 8th. as the Oceanside / Carlsbad Coin Club is having a Youth Auction. Some very nice items starting at 1 cent for kids under 18 only. It will be fun.
Regards, MapMaker.
Camelot
The vast majority could very well reside in a landfill but if even 0.1% survive and a fraction of those survive in MS condition were still talking about thousand of coins.
I can recognize the variations (not so hard to do) but the variations are minute and when judge in light of the coin as a whole they do not IMHO account for 99% of the coins value.
In my book ".." never equals $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000.
<< Believe it or not one can drool over moderns >>
Cladking - no argument from me on that issue - I like Pr DCam LHCs & Frankies & Washington quarters, etc, etc (not Ikes & SBAs though - but for aesthetic reasons - they just aren't very attractive - although I did see a toned Pr Ike with great colors & a cameo look - it was a drooly) -& I have collected & still have collections of these coins - even the Ikes
- BUT if I'm gonna spend $39K it won't be on a coin of which 3 Million were made & most are still available in the original sealed mint holders - I don't care if PCGS calls it a "PR100DCam with angelic toning floating on its pristine surfaces never touched by human hands even when it slipped from its sonically sealed mint plastic to the confines a special gold plated PCGS slab"- it's not a rare coin - it's a common coin - & even as the finest one graded (and even if there was a written guarantee that PCGS has viewed everyone of the 3 Million made, & promised never to grade one higher), its still not rare.
BUT I'd spend $39K in a heartbeat for a few of those wonderful and very rare patterns that Rick Kay has for sale, or for an 1893-S Morgan (though I'm not sure how nice the Morgan would be at $39K) or any number of Proof $5 or $10 gold Libs where the mintages are less than 50 coins & maybe 5-10 have survived - because in addition to being coins that you can drool over, they are excessively rare coins. I would guess, but I haven't added them up, that there are less total gold proof coins minted prior to 1915 of ALL gold coins minted by the US Mint, than there are Proof 1963 Lincoln pennies currently available to purchase.
So, although I like and collect some of the modern coins, what I want to own are rare coins that exemplify the coiners art - I'd take every one of those coins in Jeff Garrett's 100 greatest coins & think that I'd died and gone to heaven. I collect all coins, from ancient greek gold staters to some of the most recent State quarters - but if I'm gonna spend real money - its goes for real rarities - not coins where the rarity is based solely some grader's opinion that it looks better that the other 3 million examples & he assigns an artificial number that gives only the "appearance" of rarity.
I don't think the debate is about modern coins vs. classic coins, both are equally collectible. I think the real debate is where are the RARITIES with real value - & bashing modern coins or classic coins only serves to hide the real issue.
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
How disingenuous to use as ones example perhaps the silliest purchase in the history of coins IMHO - NOT TO MENTION A CLASSIC COIN FROM 1963 (MOST STATE MODERNS START IN 1965 BUT THEY CONVENIENTLY USE 1963 AS A "MODERN" WHEN IT SUITS THEM) . It would be like finding the fellow who bought the most rediculous pattern coin purchase (like a $1,000 coin some guy paid $40,000 for) in the history of the world and using that example on a daily basis to argue that pattern coins sucked. THINK ABOUT IT HOW SILLY THE REFERENCE IS
Wondercoin
<<BUT I'd spend $39K in a heartbeat for a few of those wonderful and very rare patterns that Rick Kay has for sale, or for an 1893-S Morgan (though I'm not sure how nice the Morgan would be at $39K) or any number of Proof $5 or $10 gold Libs where the mintages are less than 50 coins & maybe 5-10 have survived - because in addition to being coins that you can drool over, they are excessively rare coins. I would guess, but I haven't added them up, that there are less total gold proof coins minted prior to 1915 of ALL gold coins minted by the US Mint, than there are Proof 1963 Lincoln pennies currently available to purchase...but if I'm gonna spend real money - its goes for real rarities - not coins where the rarity is based solely some grader's opinion that it looks better that the other 3 million examples & he assigns an artificial number that gives only the "appearance" of rarity.>>
People should feel free to collect whatever they want. Hey, I collected baseball cards in my misspent youth and early adulthood. What a waste of time and money, in retrospect, but I had a lot of fun at the time. Nothing could be more worthless now. (Note to state quarter collectors--baseball cards may be an example of what may happen in a market when supply exceeds demand over time. Which are still valuable? The "classic" Babe Ruths, Lou Gehrigs, Honus Wagners, Joe Jacksons, etc. held their value the best.)
There were 3 million plus Lincoln cents minted and most survive today. There are estimated to be 10,000 Dahlonega gold coins of all dates and denominations currently extant. Which would I rather own, a pop top 1963 Lincoln penny or a pop top pre-1861 Dahlonega half eagle (both about $39,000, though the half eagle may/may not be less expensive)? Well, you know what I collect.
That said, I would in no way interfere with anyone else collecting $39,000 Lincoln cents than I would castigate someone collecting baseball cards. In fact, I prefer big money chasing coins I do not collect, so that it stays away from areas that I do collect. Or as Lucy would say, "More Dahlonega half eagles for me!"
Edited after reading Wondercoin's reply. Other modern pop tops could be subbed for the '63 Lincoln without significantly altering the point.
I have a feeling if we got on a long private disscussion on coins we would probably agree on more issues then disagree.
If the main reason I spent money on coins was to make money, I would pull out everything right now because eye appeal coins are bringing great money at signature sales.
But if the defenition of being a "pure collector" is not caring what my coins are worth when I buy them, I would certainly then admit I am not a pure collector because I would not knowingly pay someone 50 % or more of a profit margin because I love a coin. Also while I have no children, it's a dumb analogy to compare the worth of a coin to that of a child.
I have paid above sheet for many of my coins, but I don't go off the deep end with what I pay, maybe if I was rich I wouldn't care. I think it is unreasonable to excpect a hard working honost dealer with effort and overhead costs to find me good stuff for 10 % [I know some people are like that]. But whats wrong with wanting value for my money ?
I don't excpect my coins to make me rich or I would buy stocks instead, thats not why I collect coins, but really nice coins of the caliber I like cost alot of money, so if I'm value consious, I can get more of them.
Les
Yes they could. For example, I could tell you about a couple 20th century coins I sold for under $20,000 a couple years back that are trading at $130,000+ today. But, I'm felling pain just writing these words down, so I better stop
Wondercoin
I have a mint almost complete set of 1967 & 1968 cards including the 1967 Mickey Mantle and lots of other Hall of Famers.
Since I grew up in Atlanta, I used to trade for Hank Aaron cards... The best rade that I EVER made was for a 1962 Mickey Mantle Triple Crown Year Card.
I paid 1 cent per card when I bought them in bubble gum wax packs, and they are worth alot more now.
But the best part is that when we found that box full of baseball (and football) cards, I recovered a bit of my childhood with lots of great memories of collecting all of those wonderful cards...
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Do the cards have value? You bet. Just not the dollars and cents kind. No doubt, eventually they will end up in some dumpster.
The fascination with common modern issues does share some parallels with the baseball card boom of the 80's. Some people made money...some made a lot of money, but many got stuck holding the bag.
<< <i>
The fascination with common modern issues does share some parallels with the baseball card boom of the 80's. Some people made money...some made a lot of money, but many got stuck holding the bag. >>
Let's see, are there really any parallels? The cards were made in huge numbers originally
in the 50's, 60's, and 70's. And few of them survived. These became avidly pursued by huge
numbers of collectors beginning in the late 1970's. Despite their being much more common than
many thought they soared in price because of a tremendous demand. There were ads for base-
ball cards in every newspaper and shops for the cards sprang up even moderately sized towns.
There were weeklies and bid sheets and many millions of people involved. Producers siezed on
this as an opportunity to flood the market with a barage of new mass produced cards sold at
steep premiums. The market eventually collapsed under its own weight.
You've got to be kidding!!! There are no parallels here. Most of the diminishing number of coin
shops don't even stock moderns for fear of alienating their real customers. Only just this year
has the first price guide appeared anywhere in print which suggests that some rare moderns might
actually have a little premium to face value. I've never heard of a modern coin store and the only
dealers who specialize in these are a handfull on the net. (I wouldn't be surprised if there are
a hundred card dealers on the net even today for each modern coin dealer). The CDN doesn't even
list any prices for any moderns above about MS-62!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Only the general public is in-
terested in moderns at this grade level but this is what there is a ready market in. The US mint, possibly
in an attempt to shore up the aging coin collectors, has taken the opportunity to mass produce vast
numbers of new coins that are available to anybody at face value.
Perhaps in the future it will be possible to draw some parallels here, but there are few who would
want this and probably no one here.
While the registry craze certainly is certainly appealing to many collectors and is clearly responsible for the high prices paid for coins in the PR or MS 69-70 range, I don't see it ever totally dominating the hobby. I've known too many dealers and collectors who either don't care about it, or refuse to be a part of it.
Oh and I totally suck at chess.
<< <i>How disingenuous to use as ones example perhaps the silliest purchase in the history of coins IMHO - NOT TO MENTION A CLASSIC COIN FROM 1963 (MOST STATE MODERNS START IN 1965 BUT THEY CONVENIENTLY USE 1963 AS A "MODERN" WHEN IT SUITS THEM) . It would be like finding the fellow who bought the most rediculous pattern coin purchase (like a $1,000 coin some guy paid $40,000 for) in the history of the world and using that example on a daily basis to argue that pattern coins sucked. THINK ABOUT IT HOW SILLY THE REFERENCE IS >>
Wonder coin, I disagree with your premise that Moderns start in 1965 - THat's true for Roosies & Wash Quarters where the metal content went from silver to clad. But modern Lincolns start with the change to the Lincoln Memorial reverse in 1959 - The coin albums reflect this, as does the Registry sets - so you can't throw that 1963 into the classics, tain't - it's modern. But that's NOT an isolated example: If you were a new collector/investor the following would be good advice for someone who wanted to start collecting coins:
1. Collect something that has high demand.
2. Try & get the best grade you can afford.
3. Buy only PCGS slabbed coins - they are the most reliaible the msot accurately graded & over time will hold their value
Now so you know, I do not disagree with any of the above, I think more can be added to each of those statement, but none of the above statements is "bad" advice, But let's see what would happened if our "Novice Numismatist (NN for short)" blindly followed this advice w/o further thought:
He decides to collect Lincoln Memorial cents, because Lincoln pennies are the most widely collected series with thousands of collectors (some very knowledgeable like Stewart Blay, some novices just like NN). As soon as that's completed, he'll start on the earlier dates. Also, he likes the looks of this "classic" coin. He sees that there are many Registry sets and it is a "doable" series. One month before the 2002 ANA he inherits a very sizeable sum of money - he buys a bunch of books about Lincoln cents, reads them, and off he goes to the ANA, money in hand. He sees hundreds of dealers and is dazed and confused. Unsure of himself in navagating the bourse floor, he attends a Heritage signature sale, registers and gets a bidder card, and starting with the first lot he watches so he can learn the ropes. One thing catches his attention - there is a lot of bidding activity - there are real under-bidders and our NN waits patiently for the Lincoln memorial cents and takes the plunge. Following the sage advice of many whom he has consulted, he goes after the top pop coins in the series he has selected (Proof Lincoln Memorial cents), and he limits himself to PCGS coins only as he has heard from many dealers that he should stay away from coins graded by other grading services. In the process he resolves to list his set on the registry as soon as it is complete. He buys some coins at the 2002 ANA & deligently continues his quest. Exactly one year later, at the Baltimore ANA, he completes his set of 46 proof Lincoln Memorial cents - it certainly would be a top registry set as NN was able to acquire top pop coins for all but 10 coins. Every coin was bought in auction and every coin had an under-bidder. Of the coins he has purchased the following are his stats:
1959-1986 Top Pop coins with none higher all but 2 coins (1959 & 1964)
1987-2003 Top Pop coins with none higher for all but 8 coins, (1987, 1988, 1990, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002 & 2003) only because he didn't see any come up in any of the Heritage Auctions (NN is a very loyal fellow)
Cost for these 46 coins (every coin a real sale & can be verified on Heritage's auction Archives: ( I bet everyone knows where this is going by now - but this figure may surprise a lot of people) $141,429. An average of $3,075 for each coin (and yes our lucky NN got that POP 1 1963 Pr70DCam penny - spots and all) Here's his set:
Grading Purchase Top Pop/# Available
Date Grade Service Cost Date # Better
1959 Pr68DCam PCGS $920 4/30/03 Pr69DCam/ 3 3
1960 LD Pr69DCam PCGS $3,910 7/30/02 Pr69DCam/ 9 0
1960 SD Pr68DCam PCGS $2,530 7/30/02 Pr68DCam/ 10 0
1961 Pr69DCam PCGS $1,782 9/17/02 Pr69DCam/ 8 0
1962 Pr69DCam PCGS $1,207 1/11/03 Pr69DCam/ 29 0
1963 Pr70DCam PCGS $39,100 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 0
1964 Pr69DCam PCGS $201 1/13/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
1968-S Pr69DCam PCGS $3,795 11/23/02 Pr69DCam/ 22 0
1969-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,150 5/3/03 Pr69DCam/ 35 0
1970-SLD Pr69DCam PCGS $3,220 11/23/02 Pr69DCam/ 33 0
1970-SSD Pr68DCam PCGS $4,600 1/11/03 Pr68DCam/ 11 0
1971-S Pr69DCam PCGS $14,950 7/29/03 Pr69DCam/ 4 0
1972-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,006 9/20/03 Pr69DCam/ 50 0
1973-S Pr70DCam PCGS $6,325 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 4 0
1974-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,265 1/11/03 Pr69DCam/ 145 0
1975-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,150 7/29/02 Pr69DCam/ 84 0
1976-S Pr69DCam PCGS $1,207 7/29/02 Pr69DCam/ 65 0
1977-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,565 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 11 0
1978-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,680 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 10 0
1979-STy1Pr70DCam PCGS $10,925 3/23/03 Pr70DCam/ 9 0
1979-S Ty2Pr70DCam PCGS $2,760 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 23 0
1980-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,680 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 16 0
1981-S Ty1Pr70DCam PCGS $8,050 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 8 0
1981-S Ty2Pr69DCam PCGS $718 3/3/03 Pr69DCam/ 65 0
1982-S Pr70DCam PCGS $3,220 1/11/03 Pr70DCam/ 12 0
1983-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,725 11/23/02 Pr70DCam/ 25 0
1984-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,380 9/17/02 Pr70DCam/ 32 0
1985-S Pr70DCam PCGS $575 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 34 0
1986-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,955 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 26 0
1987-S P69DCam PCGS $87 1/13/03 Pr70DCam/ 5 5
1988-S P69DCam PCGS $37 11/25/02 Pr70DCam/ 19 19
1989-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,380 9/17/02 Pr70DCam/ 33 0
1990-S P69DCam PCGS $80 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 7 7
1991-S Pr70DCam PCGS $603 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 28 0
1992-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,380 3/23/03 Pr70DCam/ 28 0
1993-S Pr70DCam PCGS $632 3/1/03 Pr70DCam/ 49 0
1994-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,955 11/23/02 Pr70DCam/ 23 0
1995-S Pr70DCam PCGS $2,530 11/23/02 Pr70DCam/ 12 0
1996-S Pr70DCam PCGS $1,610 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 32 0
1997-S Pr70DCam PCGS $356 8/6/03 Pr70DCam/ 14 0
1998-S Pr69DCam PCGS $36 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
1999-S Pr69DCam PCGS $36 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
2000-S Pr69DCam PCGS $31 7/29/03 Pr70DCam/ 1 1
2001-S Pr69DCam PCGS $57 2/23/02 Pr69DCam/ 894 0
2002-S Pr69DCam PCGS $42 10/15/02 Pr70DCam/ 6 6
2003-S Pr69DCam PCGS $26 7/22/03 Pr70DCam/ 10 10
Total $141,429 (Average cost per coin $3,075)
If you omit his 8 non-top pop coins from 1987 onward ( which only average about $55 each) his average cost for the other 38 coins is about $3,700 per coin.
The problem with NN's collection is that he doesn't own a single rare coin! Probably the lowest mintage is the the 1959 Cent with only 1.1 Million, & all left the mint in sealed plastic, as did every other one of these coins. (I haven't checked, but I would bet that not many of those dates have less than 3 million made for each date)
Lets take this little hypothetical one step further: Suppose NN was satisfied with the next lower grade - how much would he have spent?
$1,306 and about 10 coins would be in the exact same grade as the top pop collection listed above -
Query: which course is the best road for NN to take in his collecting endeavors? (To make this even more interesting, if NN had not listened to the sage advice he was given and simply dilegently searched for mint sealed proof sets, he could have purchased every coin listed above AND every other coin that came with the Lincoln penny in each of those proof sets for about $750 TOTAL, (perhaps as high as $1000 as there are a bunch of special proof sets & I'm not sure whether the Lincoln cent is in the special sets) with every coin sealed in plastic. check out the CDN Greysheet if you don't believe it)
So the question is not: Should NN collect modern coins? The question to be considered is: HOW should our intrepid NN collect modern coins?
So no one confuses this with bashing modern coins or registry sets. I have collected top pop coins, I have had a #1 registry set (Proof IHCs) & I have thoroughly enjoyed collecting them. I would put together a nice set of Lincoln memorial proof pennies, but if you gave me $140,000 I would have a lot of change left over - & I'd start working on one of those pattern coiled hair stellas, or a high grade 1793 Large cent or some wonderful proof gold coins, an 1895 Morgan, a set of Matte Proof Lincolns, etc, etc, etc. But I would not waste over $140,000 buying common coins. I'm quite certain someone could put together this same scenerio for other top pop modern coins, & I bet you could spend a Million dollars & own the same thing that a YN would own if he carefully purchased one of each proof set from 1950 to date - the earlier ones would be tough, but I saw a nice 1953 set and 4 nice 1954 sets at LB for greysheet bid, so with the exception of the 1950-1952, I know this would be very doable, fun & maybe quite profitable. Would they all be top pop DCams - certainly not, but it would still be a very impressive set of coins, especially if our intrepid NN actually sat down , learned to grade coins and looked at a lot of mint sealed proof sets - he might have fun, his downside would be minimal, and he might make some money on his collection if he learned to be selective and grade coins -
The last piece of advice that I'd give to NN is: Buy rare coins, not rare plastic. If that last bit of advice was followed, NN would have almost $140,000 left over to start his next series - not a bad grub stake.
But that's JMHO
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
Great post! (here and in other thread). It makes the point well.
Are your real initials "QDB"?
As the average Joe collector $140,000 is major money and the alternate scenerio given by Newmismatist is where I live. If your name is Gates or Buffet the $140,000 is an afternoons spending change. This is true whether Mr. Gates or Buffet are spending the money as a pure collector not caring about recouping their money or risking the money on speculation that a strong future market will be in place when it's time to sell and make a profit on the sale. That can easily afford that risk.
For the vast majority of collectors IMHO the risk are too great (there are many other ways to invest that are far less risky) and when paying the tremendous premiums for the top pops you are paying a lot of money for very small (by definition miniscule) differences. If that's the focus for some that's fine. Maybe some have the resources to grab hold of the broad spectrum of interesting aspects of numismatics AND put a major focus on those minute details. If you're in that position that's great. But for most collectors IMHO wisdom dictates a more conservative approach to buying whether we're talking modern or classics.
of which is that memorial cents are in high demand. Five years ago there were virtually no
collectors of these coins. Even today you'll find many dozens of people who collect the pre-
1959 cents before finding one who collects the later. True, I'm noy counting the many people
who collect these from pocket change. While these are real collectors collecting real coins they
have no effect on the market until they actually buy a coin.
Modern coins are a FAR larger field than merely proof cents. There are varieties (including three
major proof cents), there are eight different series of regular issue coins (And 25 states quarters),
There are numerous commems and special issues, they have been struck in 10 different metallic
compositions including three clads, there are three separate series of bullion coins and a series
which wasn't monetized. There are numerous moderns which were NEVER SOLD BY THE MINT. The
only way to obtain these coins was in circulation. Many of the varieties have still to this day not
been reported or have not actually been listed in any reference. If you want an example of one
of these you will not find a pop top in a pcgs slab or anywhere else in some cases other than in
circulation. Those who keep talking about how common moderns are would be well advised to
actually look at a few of them. They are found in circulation and not only are they often pathetic
there are some which are very difficult to find. A 1968-S cent for example was put in circulation- -
try to find one.
High grade proof cents truly are rare coins. These are not my "cup of tea" but those who find them
interesting AND can actually spot the difference in quality might well want to collect them. I person-
ally think there are many other moderns with far greater potential, but NO ONE KNOWS. Who would
have thought five years ago that it would ever be possible to spend $140,000 on a set of these?
If I were going to assemble this set, I'd poke through proof sets looking for the best coins. It would
cost a substantial amount of time and effort and more than a little cash to find the best coins. When
I was done the coins would in most cases be just slightly lower quality than the slabbed coins. There
would be more than a little money left and I'd have had a blast looking. But what about people for
whom this isn't a viable alternative? Some people with this kind of money find that it is time which is
more precious to them. There are people who don't have access to large quantities of sets to look
through. And there are people who prefer the experience of picking these coins off on E-bay much
more than cherry picking sets. And there are those who simply insist on the very best.
It always boils down to what it always does-- to each his own, and prices are set by supply and demand.
It doesn't matter one whit if one knowledgeable collector believes these coins are indistinguisable in
high grade. It doesn't matter that most of the hobby is screaming in unison that all these coins are a
sucker bet. The only thing that matters is what people are willing to pay or accept in payment for coins.
One would do well to think about the fact that the hobby considers these grossly overpriced. If so many
believe this then who's buying the coins. If the hobby disparages collecting these coins now that many
have gained substantial value, then who bothered to set them aside when they were just junk. And there-
in lies the reason that many of these coins are high priced- - no one bothered to save any.
typos
Newmistmatist: Great post!
1. I have stated my belief that "moderns" begin as early as 1932 since the day I got to these boards. Let's just say, I have not seen much of a following adopting my view - so if it is 1965 (or any other date), so be it. ISN'T IT FUNNY THAT WE SPEAK OF "MODERN BASHERS" AND WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT A "MODERN" COIN OR SERIES EVEN IS!!
2. Personally, I ran from the 1970's to date proof70 Lincolns YEARS AGO. OK - perhaps a bit too early as coins I happily sold for a few hundred dollars then did trade for thousands of dollars. Recently (like in a day or two ago), I got into a pretty good battle on the Registry Board (come visit) when I seriously questioned a 1999(s) and 2000(s) Lincoln in PR70DC appearing to sell for close to $20,000/pair OR 1000X the price of the undergrade PR69DC coins which in my book are roughly $10-$15/coins!!! In fact, I alerted "pmh1nic" of this point on a thread, but, he never picked up on it
Anyway, Numismatist, if you read my comment here and find that we are still debating any particular point, let me know and I'll be happy to address it.
Wondercoin
<< <i>But if the defenition of being a "pure collector" is not caring what my coins are worth when I buy them, I would certainly then admit I am not a pure collector because I would not knowingly pay someone 50 % or more of a profit margin because I love a coin. >>
i believe the measure of a "true collector" can never, ever be measured in numbers, because numbers don't matter if you desire something strongly enough. therefore, accounting terms, like "50% profit", etc, mean nothing to me, for coins i collect, because those terms are derived exclusively from numbers.
<< <i>Also while I have no children, it's a dumb analogy to compare the worth of a coin to that of a child. >>
that's part of my point - that "value" is really meaningless if you have something for the love of it.
i really, truly do love my coins. it's a different love than that of my children, but it is real love. that's why i say when i pay 10x retail for a coin, it doesn't have the slightest concern for me, because "dollars" are truly fleeting, whereas the payback i get from enjoying what i love is infininte.
<< <i>I have paid above sheet for many of my coins, but I don't go off the deep end with what I pay, maybe if I was rich I wouldn't care. I think it is unreasonable to excpect a hard working honost dealer with effort and overhead costs to find me good stuff for 10 % [I know some people are like that]. But whats wrong with wanting value for my money ? >>
NOTHING is wrong w/ that!!! my point, though, is that some folks can ONLY estimate "value" in terms of "money". is the only payback you get from owning a coin measurable in terms of dollars?
<< <i>really nice coins of the caliber I like cost alot of money, so if I'm value consious, I can get more of them. >>
although my coin collection is pretty danged extensive, if i were limited to only ever owning five coins, i could still be happy, so long as they are coins i truly love
lemme ask you this. how much did your wedding ring cost? would your wife let you sell it for 10% more than you paid for it? double? would she be all right if you hocked it for five-times it's original monetary value? let's say you promised here you'd buy 1 just like it to replace it, would it be all right to sell it for 10x it's retail value, is that ok? you might say that coins don't compare to a spouse, & you'd be right, BUT love is love, & yes, someone can love their coins as much as they love their wife, just a different kind of love. that's how i feel about the coins in my collection.
K S
The issue then becomes how does the seller intend to maximize his wealth. Some sellers are in it for the short term, others the long term. Some think that if they're marketing is good enough, there is an endless stream of suckers they can live off of. Others want long term relationships with buyers they intend to take care of.
Some feel that they should not attempt to protect buyers from the brutality of market forces - if a high grade modern sells at auction at 40K, well then that's what they're worth and they will do everything they can to market them for even more.
Others feel that even if high grade moderns are selling at auction for major bucks, that they can see the writing on the walls.
Another thing to consider, and no small thing, is the potentially permanent effect registry sets will probably have on top pop coins. 40K for almost perfect moderns may be worth that forever and maybe even more because of the registry sets, and also because the grading services may have an eye towards supporting the market by not grading another top pop coin, which I think happens infrequently - gotta give the submitters a motivation to submit.
Anyway, while it would shock me to see an investment fund investing in high grade moderns as opposed to classic rarities, such would be an arguably educated nod towards the modern market. I don't thing that is going to happen but i have been shocked by many things before.
So, anyway, some coins sell for major bucks when they in my opinion should not, and other really desirable coins sell for fractions. Personally, there are several old sayings which come to mind......a sucker is born every minute......a fool and his money will soon part.....and....caveat emptor.
I find it interesting that some of the most influential and insightful coin people sells quite a few "top pop" coins. I can think of two that I think i know who are decent people.
Maybe they just like moderns and that is all there is to it. Maybe if the market collapses they will be hit the hardest. Interesting thought, there, eh?
Maybe all of us classic coin lovers are missing the boat. I don't think so...at least not me as i'm not primarily in it for the money.
Maybe moderns are topped out. I'm not sure quite frankly - don't underestimate man's search for meaning and significance ("Who am I - why let me tell you! I have the finest set of Lincoln sets dating from 1940 until 1945!......in the world! No one beats me in my little corner! When it somes to Lincolns from 1940 until 1945 I AM THE KING!!!!!")
Maybe they are just in their infancy.
Personally, the feeling I get is the feeling i had when the Dow crested 12500 and the NASDAQ went over 5000. But, the buying and selling of moderns isn't like the stock market where dramatic things can happen in a heart beat. If moderns crest and sag, it will be a trend that occurs over time to some degree.
(Sorry if i went a little afar off of your topic....)
adrian
the very nature of the coins and their distribution in the various grades, it is
likely they will always be collected in high grade by many of those collecting
them. As (or if) the number of collectors continues to increase there will be a
substantial change in the pricing for most all the high grade issues rather than
merely the pop tops.
It sure was, thanks Sequitur for bumping.
--- WingNut
<< <i> I think that today's oversold market sectors include coins that are being heavily marketed by some of the the grading services (i.e. Registry Sets) to encourage people to become overly condition census conscious -- with the effect of influencing them to pay phenomenal and (to some) unjustified markups on condition rarities of common coins. >>
Stuart - the TPGS don't market coins - they sell OPINIONS - if people want to buy opinions as if they are playing a slot machine, how are you going to discourage them? - It's the prospect of a "huge" payoff that keeps the customers feeding the quarters into the machine.
<< <i> I feel that as a result people are overly focusing on condition rarities of otherwise very common coins, rather than date, type or series rarities. The key here is that the grading services are the ones who make the rules because they determine and assign the grades to the coins (like MS68/69 or PF-68/69).
I applaud the grading services' very successful marketing approach which promotes and appeals to our very competitive nature in an environment that thrives in America today, in gambling & competitive sports, etc. They are turning passive collectors into active competitors, and are helping to keep score of the "winners" through registry sets. >>
It's the same reson why someone will literally risk there life to climb Mt. Everest, it's why people bet on horse races, - it's not the oldest "profession", (the urge to gamble and be #1) but close!
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
Ron: While the TPGS's don't directly and explicitly market coins, they do have a very significant effect on the rare coin market through the marketing of their services for original grades, regrades, etc.
I don't have any interest in either encouraging or discouraging others' and how they enjoy the numismatic hobby. I was simply stating my own personal collecting and investing preferences. It's up to each individual to participate and enjoy this hobby however they wish to.
I was quite frankly surprised to see my thread rejuvenated after a year. Thanks for your post!
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
I remember the moment of clarity I had when I read your above post last year. Rereading it again this year, I relived the moment. Excellent post--one of the HOF posts from these boards.
I say this from many years of collecting AND after having put together a #1 registry set (Proof Indian Head Cents) - My #1 registry set is no longer #1, and much of it was sold almost 2 years ago at the FUN show - the same show that the 1963 Pr70RD DCam Lincoln cent sold for $39,600. I could NOT understand the sale of that coin for the price realized. In my very nice collection of Proof IHCs I had an 1871 PR66RD Cam - highest graded, finest known and a coin that I believe will one day be in a Pr67 holder - there were about 900 Total Proof 1871's struck and the total Population of Pr66s was less than half a dozen - no one can buy a bunch of original mint sealed 1871 proof sets and submit them - I've personally seen 20-30 high end Pr65RDs and IMO its unlikely that there is a nicer Pr 1871 IHC that's survived 130+ years. Despite a prior Auction sale price realized of $12,650, My coin did not meet its reserve of $10,500.
In case you're wondering why I liked this particular coin, here's a link to it when it sold in a prior auction.
Pretty 1871 Pr66RD IHC
I knew that there was something totally out of whack when I was told the the very common (and grossly over-graded) 1963 Pr70RD DCam Lincoln cent sold for $39,600! Why? Because someone needed that NUMBER (PR70RD DCAM) to become the owner of the #1 Registry set of Proof Lincoln Memorial Cents.
Although I enjoy collecting all coins and I would for my own enjoyment put together sets of exceptionally nice modern coins, I think that grading common moderns is something like the dot.com scam of a few years ago - it is literally fed by the urge to hit the jack-pot - I for one can't see any descernable difference between 68's 69's and 70's - (with the exception of the 1963 Pr70RD DCam 1CN which I referenced above, which was an impaired PR64RB coin worth about 25 cents) - There's literally millions of those coins, they all look the same and in the vast majority of cases, they are worth face value plus only a small premium for whomever took the time to pick a nice one out of the 1000s that are readily available.
Well, that's JMHO, and it's probably worth less than two cents - (of course it depends how nice the two cents is
There are some who might question my consistency in writing the above in view of the fact that I have (and will) pay premium money for exceptional toned Morgan dollars (and even some other nice toned coins). My Answer is quite simple: Those exceptional coins are quite rare and they are unique visual works of art that transcend ordinary coins. By way of example, an exessively rare 1927-D $20 St. Gaudens, looks no different visually from its very common 1927-P counter-part. But my 1880-S Gold, Red and Green Morgan dollar - the "Christmas Tree" that I've posted on these boards, looks like no other Morgan dollar that I've ever seen, and when seen in person, is a breath taking coin. It is to me, why I collect coins - the pleasure of owning a coin that whomever sees it says one word: "WOW"
When someone collects the paper insert inside the plastic, - they are deluding themselves as they are not collecting coins, they are collecting someone else's opinion, nothing more and nothing less; and when they go to sell their collection they may be sorely disappointed.
The highest numerical grade rendered by someone as to a coin's grade is an opinion that, while often useful in determining a coin's realtive value, is not a good reason to collect coins - what's inside the plastic, that's the reason to collect coins.
I prefer to collect coins!
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist