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Wanna know why we bash the SMR?
GoSoxBoSox
Posts: 1,103
This 1934 Goudey Hank Greenberg PSA 6 has an SMR of $400.00.
It's not like this is a one time thing. For 6 months I've been following these cards if they're PSA 5 or higher the SMR is way off. These guys need to get with it.
It's not like this is a one time thing. For 6 months I've been following these cards if they're PSA 5 or higher the SMR is way off. These guys need to get with it.
There is a fine line between "hobby" and "mental illness"
0
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As you point out this is not just a one time thing--it happens in every set .....over and over and over again. Why? Noone at PSA pays any attention to ebay and other auctions.
I do not believe that collectors mailing in their imput is the answer.
Davalillo
I agree that collectors like us that can provide extensive proof on the market prices is NOT the answer. The burden shouldn't be on us. We pay PSA to do this for us.
Give me some background on this topic. Exactly what does PSA do to keep up-to-date? I know they say "we scour auctions, talk to dealers and collectors every week, and travel to shows looking for updates". But how do they REALLY go about this? I sometimes find it hard to believe they really follow the process the publish because they simply aren't in line with mid and upper grade auctions, web-sites, and dealers (at major shows).
I know you must've spoken to Joe about this so what is his answer?
Joe used to put a lot of effort into talking with dealers and collectors when that was his job. Then Rocchi and Baker left and Joe became president and he has a lot of things on his plate--understandable whe he cannot allocate much time to his old job.
The answer is to hire someone to do this but I think that PSA is under some pretty severe headcount restrictions that they cannot hire a person to do this job. I have tried to convince Joe that this having a price guide that collectors had confidence in would be good for PSA and would more than pay for itself in a number of ways.
Joe never responds directly to this and instead just tells me to e-mail suggested changes and justification for all of the cards in all of the sets where I felt the values were wrong. When I suggest that this is a full time job, Joe becomes defensive and it never gets anywhere.
Jim
I understand and somewhat agree with your frustration. However, I don't know of a great solution...even if all the data in the world were available. There are simply too many factors to adjust for. A typical PSA 8 card for example can be high end, low end, WIWAGED, centered perfectly, centered on the borders of being o/c, etc. Add to this, that much of EBAY pricing depends on whether there are 2 motivated bidders. Plus, we honestly don't know what percentage of EBAY auctions actually close. I am sure it's not 100%.
Davilillo had an honest gripe in that the 1952 Bowman Football set nosedived for no apparent reason. I am not sure if there was ever an explanation.
Most importantly, I would like to understand the process for justification of price movement in SMR. I was asked to participate in providing EBAY results for a few sets that I collect and will do so if and only if I can understand the process.
Regards,
Alan
Ever notice if a card that sells for $300 but SMRs for $150 finally gets updated...it never jumps up to $300 but they only increase it by $5-15 dollars.
Really....whats the point of increasing it then....
John
1. The SMR is a pretty cheap service that is optional. Any single 1964 card in my collection costs more than a years worth of SMR.
2. For the sets that we collect (baseball 1950, 1951, 1959, 1964-6, 1969, 1970) the numbers for the star and semi-star cards are generally in the ballpark.
3. Commons have no rational basis for pricing and in my opinion people who use SMR or anything else are fools when pricing commons. Let's say that there is a pop 4 PSA 9 1964 card out there that is wanted by 5 people. The value of each of those cards might be $200. If a 5th one is found it might sell for $70 (the other 4 have there copy) and the 6th one may go for $40. There is simply no way that ANY publication or amount of research can determine a market that is that volatile.
4. Using convention pricing as a barometer would exclude the MANY small collectors who cannot or will not travel beyond their region. Using EBay pricing ignores a host of issues that have been well documented but include in part (auctions that end early, auctions that close but never consummate, auctions that go for bad prices because {the seller chose a foolish end time for the auction, had a poor picture, asked too high an opening bid, scared people off with bad feedback, listed at the same time as a better example was up for sale, etc. etc. etc.).
In sum, SMR is a very broad and flawed guideline. Use it, or don't. Nobody is forced to buy the product. Try to improve it if you can (I wish you luck and success). Just remember that value is in the eye of the beholder. Cards are worth what YOU or the next fool are willing to pay for them. Not one penny more or less.
If you have a better system, most of us have the money to implement it and it will sell. If you cannot get PSA to do it "right". Do it better and you will get my $50/year guaranteed.
Sandy and Greg
As an example, I stopped my '65 set at 96.6%, so thats 578 cards that I had in the set. If I ventured to re-collect it, the
prices would be different then what I paid, some stars would now be lower, some higher, some low pops have had more submitted and are more attainable. Bottom line, when I sold my set to about 15 buyers (Stump buying the most). I sold
many at higher prices then SMR listed, others sold at SMR and Stump paid under SMR, when I crunched the #'s, I landed 101-102% of SMR, so overall the accuracy was right on the money.
And if you think the SMR is way off base (overall, not a card here or there) try looking at the Beckett or Tuff Stuff guides.
They have prices that are all over the place, so much so, that many dealers sell the cards at 25, 50, 75% off the stated prices. I have yet to see a dealer at a major show, discount those #'s off the SMR. Who wouldn't love seeing a stack of Al Kaline PSA-7's & 8's at 1/2 off the SMR, or 1966 FB common PSA-8's at 1/2 off - I have never seen it.
Could the SMR be better, sure! - It could also be a hulluva lot worse....jay
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Sorry Alan, I agree with you a lot, but not on this:
52 Bowman Large Football in PSA 8 was overpriced, I bought some for less than SMR, I sold some for less than SMR.
There is a lot of PSA 8 up right now - let's watch the prices and see what happens.
If you don't like the SMR, PLEASE PLEASE - stop buying it, stop reading it, stop using it.
Simple solutions for simple problems.
Jeremy
Alan was referring to 1952 Bowman Smalls not Bowman Large.
The largest transaction in the history of the set(?) just occurred at a premium to smr and psa lowers the prices the next month???
This month PSA raises all the prices for psa 8 1952 Bowman Smalls????
It is the best product out there(over a sorry field) but ewith effort it could be a lot better.
Davalillo
THANKS for letting me vent.
Paul.
It is the best product out there(over a sorry field) but ewith effort it could be a lot better.
I am glad to hear that you think it is the best product out there, I guess I am not used to people cutting on the best.
We all know what the alternative is, Vintage Beckett where they list BVG as more valuable than PSA.
I'm out, enjoy the games today. Jeremy
I agree with thefootballcardstore who mentioned it would be better with a little more effort. Maybe that means we in fact need to send the info to Joe as we feel its' justified.
How, exactly is the SMR pricing set? if its input from dealers, who are they and how do they establish their prices? If its Joe individually, why the adamant refusal to be realistic about pricing.
Lets get real - there are 1974 commons in PSA 9 that sell for over 3X the published price, and have been doing so for 6 months.
I pay the price for the smr, but genrally rely on my own research about pricing. it seems my $$ would be better spent on a periodaical that's accurate, or at least trys to be.
My $0.02.
<< <i>It is the best product out there(over a sorry field) but ewith effort it could be a lot better.
Davalillo >>
I agree that this is the bottom line.
I also believe that a true market report is more valuable, and less likely to contain rediculous values than a price guide.
It would seem that certain sets listed in the SMR need a complete overhaul.
It also seems that there is a reluctance for SMR to vary too much from the SCD Standard Catalog.
Perhaps we should be working on Lemke on some of these sets, PSA could than just scuffle along behind and "follow suit". Wilson Franks come to mind, must be lunch time.
Their methodology needs to be better understood.
James
When I'm collecting a set, I start a spreadsheet in Microsoft Access. I put in the card number, player, variation if any, the PSA grade, the PSA grade (1-10), the amount that the card sold for and the date.
I track it on a daily basis to see when I think I it is the best time to purchase. Typically, I run across some strange auctions where one person just has to have a card and bids way above the SMR.
Case in point. I was just following a certain card in PSA 10. It sold for $388.00 one week and just a week the same type of card went for $0. A couple of people really wanted that card, but I didn't bite. I waited for the next one to come up and got it for $45.00. SMR said it was worth $175.00.
Recently ebay purchased Paypal cause it really became like a sub-tool for their business. There are alot of PSA graded material on ebay. Wouldn't be surprised if sometime in the future ebay purchased Collectors Universe. What is it $3.00+ a share? How many share are out there?
I haven't done a search or checked on CLCT stock recently. Does it state how many employees work at PSA? What are their hours? Do they work Monday through Friday from 8:00 to 5:00? Would their profit margin and credibility go up if they staffed 24 hours a day - 7 days a week? Would more product and more profit be gained if they were to expand their services?
Collectors Universe and PSA wouldn't make a dime if you (and me) didn't sent cards in to be graded. And why do we do this? We do it to sell on ebay, to collect and in some instances share what we have acquired in the PSA Set Registry. What would your card be worth if it wasn't listed in the Registry or given a value in the SMR or compared to scarceness in the Pop Report? Probably very little.
PSA could do better and their communications with their clients could be better. Wasn't their a board for awhile where you could ask Joe O questions? I think there were about 4 posts there and it went away?
Just some ramblings.
Dale
1st Finest Set - 1981 Baseball Fleer Master - Retired
1st Finest Set - 1955 Baseball Golden Stamps - Cleveland Indians - Retired
1st Finest Set - Mel Harder Baseball Master - Active
Mel Harder Showcase Set - Active
#15 on Current Set Registry - 1972 Topps Baseball - Retired
#23 on All Time Set Registry - 1972 Topps Baseball - Retired
I wonder why Joe never thought of this
The main thing that keeps the SMR from being more acurate is the cost of the additional research. Hiring a person devoted to doing the research might be a good idea. But it is not cheap. It is not like there are 100,000 people that pay for the subscription to spread the cost around. Anyone know what the paid circulation is? My guess would very low 4 digit numbers, and that might be high. And to really get it accurate, you probably need several people working full time on it.
I personally would be willing to spend more, but if they raised the price 50% and a third of the people decided not to renew, then the revenue is the same, and there is no money to pay for the additional work. I agree that they are not real accurate on some things, and worse on others. But then I know how much time I spend keeping up with prices on one set. I can't imagine the time it would take to price 100's of sets. CLCT has to make the decision on how much additional spending will improve the product versus how much increased revenue they will get as a result, and determine if it makes business sense.
I would like to see them spending less effort on expanding the number of issues that they price, and more effort getting the major issues priced correctly.
I wouldn't even offer an SMR in print (they probably only do it because of the advertising in it, not for the content).
Presently, they have all of the sets registered in a database and they have a database containing the Pop Report.
What would it take to search ebay for all transactions and incorporate that into their database and make it available on line to users, like they do now. Do it on a daily or weekly basis, whatever would work. If your worried about profit from advertising, put it as a pop up or part of the uploaded page.
According to the last statement, and it doesn't list everyone, David Hall was making $300,000. It doesn't list all of the people and what they make, but here is the link for your enjoyment.
Financial Information for CLCT - Collectors Universe
1st Finest Set - 1981 Baseball Fleer Master - Retired
1st Finest Set - 1955 Baseball Golden Stamps - Cleveland Indians - Retired
1st Finest Set - Mel Harder Baseball Master - Active
Mel Harder Showcase Set - Active
#15 on Current Set Registry - 1972 Topps Baseball - Retired
#23 on All Time Set Registry - 1972 Topps Baseball - Retired
I subscribed to the website www.TrueCardPrices.com to see how well it worked.
It's very nice, informative - especially for auction history. A nice compliment to the SMR.
The one draw back is that it leaves in auctions ending that didn't meet reserve amounts, making some of the data look a little inaccurate.
(If you were to look back and not know, you might be fooled into thinking that some cards sold for much less than they really did).
I encourage everyone, at 4.95 a month, to give it a try for a month. They accept PAYPAL.
Jeremy
Edited to add:
I am in no way affliated in a business relationship with the above website or HomeTown Sports LLC
The basic problem with any price guide is knowing when to reflect a price change without really throwing the market out of its equilibrium. The other issue is identifying if the prices illustrated are retail or wholesale. We are still in the heat of people battling it out over low pop cards. I see you set registry guys paying more for commons than most people pay for cars. In order for a monthly price guide to be accurate it requires that several sales be monitored. You cannot possibly expect a monthly price guide to reflect sales that change as often as they do. Imagine what happens when the SMR changes to reflect the rapid fluctuations in the market of data that is 6 or 8 weeks old.
It takes time to publish the magazine. Even if the prices were accurate by the time that data is compiled and entered into the computer, the information goes to the printer and then finished product is mailed, it really is no longer timely and is really only giving us a picture of history. What is really needed is an inexpensive weekly or even daily price guide. Cards are traded everyday. Imagine our stock market if we could only see prices on the tick on a weekly or monthly basis.
If I can be so bold, I think that the real issue here is that you guys need to be reassured in black and white as to what your collections are worth. Guess what? That guide, even if it were 100% accurate, does not really reflect the real value of your cards. Your collection is worth what a willing buyer is willing to pay for it at that given moment. The price guide only reflects history when it can. It is not a guarantee or a prediction of things to come. You guys possess all of the information that you need to value your collections.
That is not to say that the price guide should not attempt to reflect that historical information but the SMR lists tens of thousands of cards. It is the responsibility of the collector and PSA to make sure that this guide is as accurate as possible. How difficult is it if you are already following certain issues to fax, e-mail or mail the information that you compile? You are doing it anyways, aren’t you? Sure we pay for the SMR but that does not mean that we should not contribute
The greatest resource PSA has is this board. Collectors here are so far and away head and shoulders above anyone else in terms of pricing, set and gossip info. PSA should utilitze this. I would need four hundred letters of endorsement from the website and I can't have all them come from my mom and dad. So, it's basically Satan versus Joe. Who can make a volcano erupt? I think the choice is an easy one.
Hey, we're the new generation and we have something to say - the Monkees 1968
Satan
<< <i>
Case in point. I was just following a certain card in PSA 10. It sold for $388.00 one week and just a week the same type of card went for $0. A couple of people really wanted that card, but I didn't bite. I waited for the next one to come up and got it for $45.00. SMR said it was worth $175.00.
Dale >>
So what price should the SMR reflect?? How can it possible be accurate for something like this?? You could hire 100 people and not be any more accurate on something like this.
GO MARLINS! Home of the best fans in baseball!!
2)Some of you guys overestimate the complexity of this--when this was Joe's job he did a good job at it--now it is no ones job and the SMR suffers. One person dedicated to pricing is all that is needed--unless you are going to try to break out the commons and treat them separately as well.
Davalillo
<< <i>
<< <i>
Case in point. I was just following a certain card in PSA 10. It sold for $388.00 one week and just a week the same type of card went for $0. A couple of people really wanted that card, but I didn't bite. I waited for the next one to come up and got it for $45.00. SMR said it was worth $175.00.
Dale >>
So what price should the SMR reflect?? How can it possible be accurate for something like this?? You could hire 100 people and not be any more accurate on something like this. >>
Dale,
I think you're totally taking this thread the wrong way. In some cases I agree with you. I've stated a few times in this thread that the case I'm talk about has been constant over a period of time. Those are the cases I feel the SMR is missing. I believe Davilillo speaks of the same issue.
I think we all know it'll never be perfect because we all defined success differently.
Tom
Dale >>"
"So what price should the SMR reflect?? How can it possible be accurate for something like this?? You could hire 100 people and not be any more accurate on something like this. "
The point is that you can't. You can give the people the most recent history information as to what cards are selling for and let them make the choice on what to spend. If I see that a certain card for $388.00 on one day and $0 on another day, I'm gonna think that there really isn't that much interest in it, only for that person who ran the bid up with others who wanted it.
But I can track history on the selling of a particular card.
1st Finest Set - 1981 Baseball Fleer Master - Retired
1st Finest Set - 1955 Baseball Golden Stamps - Cleveland Indians - Retired
1st Finest Set - Mel Harder Baseball Master - Active
Mel Harder Showcase Set - Active
#15 on Current Set Registry - 1972 Topps Baseball - Retired
#23 on All Time Set Registry - 1972 Topps Baseball - Retired
2) Agree with Davalillo - this really shouldn't be that hard, just a couple of hours a day. And if JO doesn't have time to talk to Davalillo, I'm sure he doesn't have time to track '66 Topps commons on ebay. Set up a bunch of searches on ebay, get price lists from dealers and make changes where necessary.
Now, if you wanted to make it THE guide, tracking all the low pops and the like, you'd have to hire someone else - how many nuance cards are in each set, that are not common values due to scarcity, but are not named stars?
<< <i>Just curious..who has actually used the SMR lately when trying to decide whether or not to buy/sell a card or set? >>
I actually use it quite a bit, but realize it's limitations. particularly in the commons. I think many of us use it more than we may admit. In fact, I think that it would be hard to find a card in there that I wouldn't give you 1/2 of SMR for w/o any other info. But I would love to hear some examples if anyone has them. Now there are a lot of cards that go for multiples of SMR, but mostly that is population related in very volatile cards.
For example, Suppose I were to offer you today a 1961 Topps #484 Aaron PSA 8 for $225. Unless you follow this set, most would have a hard time knowing if this is a good price or not. So you go to your SMR and see that it says $110. Now even if the SMR is off by 50%, you know tht this is not a good deal. If you offered me a 1953 card of anybody, I would have no idea if it was a good price or not, and would have to refer to the SMR. If I see that your price is 1/2 of SMR, I would probably buy it on the spot, knowing nothing more than that.
For basketball cards the SMR is way off, at least for the pre-1981 that I follow.
But I must say that thanks to the SMR, I have bought some really nice cards.
Some seller's put buy-it-now on ebay using the SMR, which in turn are great buys
Just by looking at the earliest set
1948 Bowman they are way off
the last 6 months commons have been going for at least 150-200, the smr has these for 70-90
in the 1981
the mchale psa 9, is listed at 45, when it goes on ebay(rarely) it goes for at least 150
1979
english psa 9 is listed for 35, the last few have gone for at least 150, it usually goes for over 75
evey year between is like this
basically, very few cards are priced correctly in basketball
Isaias
1. 75-76 Topps Keith/Jamaal Wilkes in Psa 8+
2. 1971-72 Trio stickers PSA 8+
3. BSKB 1977-78 topps psa 10
Basketball Autos
1992 Courtside Flashback
Action Packed HOF Autos(need elvin hayes,both bill bradley,and the 1st bill walton)
2001 and 2005 Greats of the Game
UD=retro,epic,legends,legendary,generations and chronology
2006 Topps Style 1952 Fan Favorites Autos #/10 (Refractor Autos)
Press Pass Legends
<< <i>I have never seen a business where it is the responsibility of the paying customers to keep the information in a publication accurate. >>
car racing
The one thing I want changed STILL (Joe has definitely listened to us in the past few months) is to get more articles and icksnay the game used bat guide. If the SMR was quarterly and every month we received a magazine with articles and profiles, that would be something I would consider paying a little more for.
I think that anything less than once a month for a price guide is not enough.
My view is eliminate all articles entirely which I find to be useless and make it a price guide only.
Davalillo
I like articles such as Fogels recent Goudey review. I like advertising and seeing cards I will never own. The pricing rarely changes, and Joe has added a few sets - if it was a quarterly price guide, more could be added as well as give ample time to prepare a thorough price guide.
Still would like to buy your 38 Joe D PSA 4!