Hold em or Fold em???

FB

Over the last year or so, we've seen a lot of great sets make a lot of progress. We've also seen some really tremendous sets get broken up or sold off as a whole. Some that come to mind include the Vargha 51 Bowman, the Mastro 65, Skylane's 67 set, Pekovich's 71, Carlos' 72 and 74, Castaldi's 75, John MacLane's 72 Football and more that I can't even think of.

We've got people with dozens and sometimes 100+ sets and others who collect only one or two. Through the threads I've read about some who collect and "be damned the cost" and others who invest based upon expected return and minimizing risk about getting their money back down the road.

I guess what I'm asking is what do we think that the landscape of the registry world will look like 3, 5 and 10 years down the road? Will PSA or the registry even be here? Will the players all be different? Will we have 1100 people with registered 75 Topps sets or will we reach a number of registered sets that won't grow as some sell off and others join at a similar rate?

I'd be interested in getting ideas from sharper minds than mine... and don't flatter yourselves - that bar is set pretty low!!!

GoSoxBoSox

The scale of set registry popularity depends on the economy of course. I certainly think if people have the disposable income they'll find set registry a great deal of fun and a safe place for the investor types. Us mentally ill folks who collect because we're still children inside will always be here....because for us it's not about the money.

My only real worry is that at some point there's gonna be an aweful lot of cards graded from the 1950's or 60's and up. As an investment I'd be afraid to bet big on sportscards unless I went pre-war.

I also wonder if the price of grading modern cards will pay for itself. Afterall, the population of these cards can and will jump dramatically at some point.

In 30 years they'll be collecting vintage pokemon or WWF cards. God save us.

Robby

Frank , That is a pretty tough question to answer , and I am not one to rate myself as being one of the sharper minds ! That said , I'll add my thoughts on this ! I am 52 years old ( 3 more years before I can retire ) , and I'm sure as I grow older , my interests and priorties are sure to change - maybe I'll need to sell my collection for unexpected bills , or health problems , or I die and my wife sells it all for peanuts ! The future is impossible to predict ! As Psa grows and more and more cards are graded , we should have a pretty good picture of what sets and cards are difficult to obtain ! I noticed that there is a thread about a 1965 Topps common possibly going for $1000.00 ! In 10 years , with more submissions and collectors digging out their old cards , this card might not be so rare ! Only time will tell ! For now , I'm enjoying collecting what I like and trying to make my set the best it can be ! Hopefully Psa will be around for a long time and I,ll have a good investment to boot ! Robby

seinbigd

Frank,

I hope the Set Registry is around for the long haul, but with the expense involved to run a program like this, I have to be honest and say I have my doubts. If times get tough(er), I would guess the Set Registry would probably be one of the first things CU would look at in a cost cutting measure.

But let's assume ten years from now the Set Registry is still in place. My feeling is there will be a hard-core group of collectors who have put together some incredible sets. So incredible, new collectors will be discouraged to attempt to build sets to compete with this elite group. It will be interesting to see what the population of cards graded will be in the future. Today we've already seen circumstances where it is cost prohibitive to grade certain cards when they can be regularly purchased for less than grading fees. In the future, the challenge will be the same for PSA: come up with new ways to generate revenue by attracting more people to use their products and services. The Set Registry has been an excellent marketing tool for CU towards accomplishing this goal. For me, ticket grading and PSA/DNA aren't the answer to satisfy my collecting habit; perhaps these products will create the enthusism necessary for others to enter the hobby. With a few possible exceptions, I don't think modern card sets will attract my attention due to the abundance of products and material available and the perceived ease of building these sets. On the other hand, PSA's recent entry into the grading of hand-cut cards such as those originating from Wheaties or Post Cereals from the 50s and 60s may entice me to part with the funds necessary to have these cards graded. For other collectors, grading these cards will be considered a waste of time and money. What will make any of these new products successful is when grading adds value to an item and bring a premium over raw material. We have already seen this occur with coins, comic books and common cards. I give CU alot of credit for its marketing efforts and will be interested to see what they have to offer in the future.

While there wilI be a hard-core group of collectors whose collections will be sold by their estates, I would expect to see the turnover of sets on the Registry as we have seen recently to continue to grow. It is my opiniion sets will continue to be liquidated as collectors' priorities change. Some will sell their sets and utilize the proceeds outside of the hobby as we have read about on the boards recently for such purposes as to pay bills, tuition, medical expenses, purchase a home, car, start a career, get married, start a family, etc. etc. Others will be motivated to sell to realize a profit while others will sell due to their lack of interest in a given set and/or to satisfy their need to start a new collecting project and enjoy the thrill-of-the-hunt once more. In simplest terms, it is my opinion these are the forces at work in our hobby which will create future collecting opportunities.

The Set Registry has been a great innovation for the hobby. Lets hope it continues for years to come.

Vargha

Well said, Steve.

ABBAdad

I certainly wouldn't consider myself a sharper mind, but it is my contention that the amount of high grade vintage raw material will slowly and continually dry up the farther into the future we go. As the pop reports slow down, the demand, I believe will continue to increase, thereby increasing value to high grade vintage sets.

If this does happen, then it seems that PSA and other grading companies may need to slightly lower their grading fees to try to induce people to send in their lesser grade raw cards. Of course, in 20 years, the 1990 Leaf set with Sammy Sosa's and Frank Thomas' rookie cards will be considered "vintage" thereby creating a whole new market. However, cards from 1983 or so and forward are available by the boatload in Mint condition.

As for the true vintage high grade set (1975 or so and prior), I believe high grade complete sets will hold their value and slowly increase in value in years to come due to the supply/ demand factors.

David

thegemmintman

I tend to agree with ABBAdad. Diminishing raw vintage and increasing demand will produce a long term rise. I will add however that the 9's and 10's (particularly 10's ) will probably do best as there will be abundant cards in lesser grade.



Regarding Seinbigd's comments:



<< <i>If times get tough(er), I would guess the Set Registry would probably be one of the first things CU would look at in a cost cutting measure. >>



Boy I don't know about that. Hey ten years from now anything is possible, but when you weigh the cost of maintaining the Registry versus the increase in submissions because of it, the Registry is a home run for CU and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.



<< <i>My feeling is there will be a hard-core group of collectors who have put together some incredible sets. So incredible, new collectors will be discouraged to attempt to build sets to compete with this elite group. >>



I just don't agree. The vast majority of Registry participants already know that they have little shot for the top spots, but they compete anyway and build the sets because it's fun!

I do however respect your opinion .

GoSoxBoSox

I sure hope all of us that think vintage will be a great investment are correct. Then, MAYBE, I'll be able to retire someday.

pc

from an "investment" standpoint low pop cards are a SELL now
and a BUY later when the pops are higher.this is clearly the pattern
that has worked.the implications for the set registry are more
favorable as cards become easier to locate as their costs drop.
lower card prices are bullish for the set registry and bearish for
"investors" aka speculators.to bet that supply will decrease
seems inadvisable as this has never been the case where money
has been a factor.with coins we've seen mysterious discoveries
of 3 million "mint" 1898-0 and 1904-0 silver dollars,thousands
of carson city dollars and with cards there always seems to be "finds"
of some sort.the lower the prices the more accessible to new
collectors but when speculators can no longer make money things
get pretty slow.the result will be in my opinion an ever growing registry.
i believe the psa set registry would be the very LAST "asset" psa would
sell.

PSAtan

I agree with the position that the registry is here to stay. It's by far and away the most intelligent thing the hobby has seen. Personally, I believe its institution was the pivotal moment in PSA history. As I've stated before, 25 out of 700 card sets are superstars or rarities on average. PSA has found a way to bring in the other 675 cards. That's momentous. I think the registry will expand to include more specialty sets, player sets and theme sets.

Also, I agree that ticket grading isn't going to impact their bottom line at all. I don't think there's a large segment of our group into ticket stubs. Also, condition of a stub isn't really important. You just want something that isn't torn up.

As for the future, I think cards will continue to see an increase in value. I don't think the cards will ever shoot up like the initial increase back in the late 80's/early 90's. I think kids collecting will follow the same cycle we all followed - Current wax put away until after school, a rediscovery process, big value purchases as they become more successful in business, selling off to buy a home, concentrating on a few sets that satisfy a sense of nostalgia and death. PSA is safe with the registry. People may not be able to compete with current HOF sets, but it's still a way to gauge how you stand in a very subjective world.

Last, I believe regional issues are the best investments right now. They don't have to be PSA 9s and PSA 10s. They are rare and condition-sensitive. These cards are seldom mint because of the products they were inserted with. These cards allow collectors to differentiate their collections. We all have a lot of the same cards. Specialty cards will increase because they are still many times rarer than Bowman and Topps. Pre-War issues seem safe too. The paper drives and years since isssue have reduced the chances of a new surfeit of cards in the market place.

I don't see any major changes for the next few years. I think some of the grading companies will merge or disappear. I see a decline in show attendance with the internet. But, these are still objects in demand. The method of sales might change but the product is stable.

PSA does face in a challenge with providing new, inventive services. However, they might look into providing their own insurance policies, financing card purchases like cars, renting cards, time-share on cards and other methods that have been successful with real estate and motor vehicles. Also, there's no reason they don't try a PSA store where you can buy supplies, get cards graded on premises and lease space to dealers. They could bring in stars to sign cards, offer seminars and organize trading days. We're all sick of waiting for long turn around times on our cards. With a group of properly trained graders, strategically located superstores could provide quick service at a fairer price. Also, they can sell current jerseys, cards, figurines, etc...

Of course, I'm seldom right about anything so don't bank on my thoughts. If anything ask me to pick football games and go against my picks to become a quick millionaire.

Best,

Satan

RayBShotz

Frank...good one! This hobby has been an active one for decades. I believe that the PSA Registry has reinvented it. The ExMt and NrMt and MINT collectors of yesteryear are slowly becoming the PSA 6 and 7 and 8 and 9 collectors of today. For serious hobbyists I believe that the PSA Set Registry is where its at. Those who accumulate nice graded cards now; especially when acquirable at bargain prices, will benefit in the long run and add nice cards to their collections.
I believe that the field will get even more crowded over time. Those who grab the nice cards being crossed over from raw to PSA graded now will be rewarded in the long run.
Those are my late night musings.
RayB69Topps

shouldabeena10

I like to think of it this way.....

1. How often do you find yourself explaining the concept of a "graded card" to a person that has never seen or heard of one before.

2. What percentage of American homes still don't have computers?

3. What percentage of computer owners still don't have access to the internet?

4. What percentage of internet users don't know about eBay, Yahoo, etc?

5. What percentage of eBay users still haven't stumbled across their old love of collecting cards yet?

6. What percentage of card collectors still don't dabble in graded cards yet?

7. What percentage of the world "outside of America" is starting to fall in love with Football, Baseball, and Basketball?

8. What percentage of new card buyers will become vintage buyers when they see their card values droping every year?

Even if the answer to most of these questions is only 10 or 15%, (which I think would be very low), that's a ton of people that have yet to make it here!

and my final question is...... what are all these people going to buy when they finally show up to the big dance and find out that we've sucked up all of the graded 8's, 9's and 10's?

It may not happen in the next couple of years.... but I think they are coming!! (humming theme song to Jaws)

Of course, I also think UFO's are droping off little green men in my back yard... so I could be wrong.

- Mike

Vargha

My yard as well, Mike.

ABBAdad

Mike,

I love your ID picture. Is that a self-portrait??

Dave

ABBAdad

Come to think of it Mike, if I gained a few pounds, it would look alot like me!

Dhjacks

We are either pioneers who have stumbled onto the infancy of something really great ....or we are really stupid for thinking anyone else will ever care how many really nice, well centered SP commons are in the population.

If prices go way up, I make money.

If prices go way down, I get all those great cards.