if pcgs grading and the registry were gone tomorrow??

michael · September 1, 2003 7:21PM

if pcgs where to go out of business totally within a week and also the registry set and collector forums where to be gone totally also never to return

what registry set coins would take the biggest hit percentagewise in terms of cash value?

in other words the top registry sets
or top 5 sets
in what series or specific coins would take the biggest hit in terms of cash value?

i think in my opinion there would be some sets that still would hold their cash value and other sets i think would take huge hits

it would be interesting to hear the thoughts

of which sets are mostly valued because of the plastic and registry set concept/grades

and which other sets are valued mostly because of the coin irregardless of the holders/grades/registry concept

and will this continue unabated the next few years??

michael

FC57Coins · September 1, 2003 9:07PM

Interesting topic Michael - Off the top of my head, I would think the market could react in two very divergent ways. Either we could go back to a market where classic coins - those of the first half of the 20th century carried the bulk of the value in the hobby - ruled the roost once again, or alternatively, there could be such a premium placed on those coins already holdered by PCGS, that the entire market on those coins would skyrocket. An interesting dilemma would be posed if you had two coins of equal quality, but one was holdered and one wasn't - it'd be interesting to see what the market would do then... Good thought provoking question!

Frank

Placid · September 1, 2003 9:14PM

I have 4 reg sets in the top 5 and I don't think my pcgs graded reg coins would lose much value at all.
I didn't buy the coins for registry set purpose it was more of a I already have the coins so let me put them in the registry.

lordmarcovan · September 1, 2003 9:16PM

Hmm. I still don't see the Seated Michael half dollar in his sig line. In fact, he is still completely without a sig line!

I told Michael I was going to pester him and not let him rest until he put the coin in his sig line. I PM'ed him instructions.

nwcs · September 1, 2003 9:46PM

I would say, without naming series, all the unpopular series you have to buy in order to have a type set would have the greatest impact.

Coins that have always been popular, or are currently popular, wouldn't have any problem. And quality still drives much so higher end examples would hold their value.

4thStooge · September 1, 2003 10:16PM

Have you heard that rumor, too?

DHeath · September 1, 2003 10:24PM

Interesting question, and I'd say the easy answer would be any series in which the coins are currently VERY expensive. My guess is in the very thinly traded market for six-figure coins, any decrease in demand could result in a single coin losing more liquidity and value than the entire Ike dollar registry. With all things financial, the bigger the investment, the bigger the risk.

tjkillian · September 1, 2003 11:11PM

I feel that my type set (1792-1964) would not loose value at all, nor my Indian Cent collection. Folks have been collecting U.S. coins since 1816, as I remember. The slabbing of coins was a brilliant idea and another company would come in and take PCGS' place. Most folks collect coins and not plastic, therefore all coins that are either undergraded or properly graded would loose little, if any, value. Only those coins that have a big price jump between grades and are on the higher of the two sides could loose value. That is assuming that the grade is not clear to most collectors.

Tom

numonebuyer · September 1, 2003 11:42PM

If PCGS went out of business today, my coins would go up in value. No one would argue that my coins are graded liberally.

Numonebuyer

DHeath · September 1, 2003 11:48PM

Typetone · September 2, 2003 12:33AM

If PCGS were to go out of business, the market for all coins would already have crashed, big. The only way they would close the doors is if no one was having coins graded anymore. This would probably occur only after a crash. Of course, PCGS could be bought anytime, but that is a different question, and I don;t think that would really affect the market.

Greg

Trime · September 2, 2003 12:45AM

Michael,
This is easy. There would be a huge reduction in all high mintage modern POP 1 coins. This will be a huge shake out in which some will lose their bottom up to their umbilicus ( belly button).
There would be a reduction in the premium of high POP over next POP in most series.
There would be a retention of value in low mintage high quality coins whose grades are not the critical factor but the rarity and the the recognition of quality within the grade (slab) were evident by the true experts. Ther will be a return to the specialist assessment of value and worth.

wondercoin · September 2, 2003 12:55AM

Micheal: DO YOU KNOW WHAT I PERSONALLY FIND FASCINATING ABOUT YOUR QUESTION?

You posted the exact same question on the NGC message board???

Now, wouldn't the logical question there have been "IF NGC GRADING AND THE REGISTRY WERE GONE TOMORROW?"

CONCLUSION: IMHO, this question was raised not to be fair to the issue of the impact of slabs if grading companies were to shut THEIR JOINT doors, but, as a "backdoor" attack on the PCGS Registry. IN THE FUTURE, WHY NOT TAKE A MORE EVENHANDED APPROACH TO YOUR QUERIES - I THINK YOU WILL BE SURPRISED AS TO THE RESPONSES YOU WOULD THEN GET.

Wondercoin

NewmisED · September 2, 2003 1:28AM

if pcgs grading and the registry were gone tomorrow??

Great question. Well, first of all, we could get back to collecting coins and NOT plastic.

cherrypickincoin · September 2, 2003 1:35AM

Simple actually, NGC would become the # service and ANACS would be ranked #2.

I can only see the fall of PCGS under one circumstance and that is if they are bought out by someone like Alan Hager, which just won't happen, I hope!

RKKay · September 2, 2003 1:47AM

Michael has always been very objective and candid in his posts. I have never known him to, in any way, have a hidden agenda. PCGS coins often bring a premium over NGC coins, and it seems the question is what if #1 closed its doors. I do not see any hidden agenda here, and I have no reason to believe there is one.

cherrypickincoin · September 2, 2003 1:49AM

I agree. I think Michael was just posing the question for two different sets of people. It's an interesting topic that makes you think.

ArtR · September 2, 2003 1:54AM

Ditto to RKKay's post

MacCoin · September 2, 2003 1:56AM

oh what a luck man I am. I won't take much of a hit I only have a few hunred dollars invested in the registry sets. besides I just go across the street and put my coins in a NGC registry. I would even need to resubmit them

wondercoin · September 2, 2003 1:58AM

Strange responses - I didn't know Michael believed PCGS was "#1", nor did I believe NGC thought they were "#2"?

Geez - come on guys - NGC has a larger role in the marketplace than to assume that this question is only fair using PCGS and its Registry as the sole example.

There was no need to single out PCGS plastic either here or on the NGC forum. Just a "shot" at PCGS and its Registry IMHO and, in particular, PCGS moderns I suspect.

Wondercoin

RKKay · September 2, 2003 2:07AM

Mitch - My post stated PCGS is #1 in the prices they bring. Consequently, if they closed their doors, the market (and the Greysheet) would be altered permanently. I never said NGC believed they were #2. It is often the mentality of the marketplace that a PCGS coin is worth more than an equally graded NGC coin. Personally, I feel NGC is great now that Rick Montgomery is there. Rick is a straight shooter who truly cares about the direction of numismatics.

DHeath · September 2, 2003 2:08AM

You can lose your butt in any coin, including "original skin, beautifully toned truly rare" classic coins. Collect what you like.

bhoondog · September 2, 2003 2:12AM

it's scary just to think about it..

IrishMike · September 2, 2003 2:13AM

Mitch, c'mon now its highly unlikely that this would occur and last time I checked the registry wasn't sanctified ground. It's question I am sure registry participants have thought of before. When I invested in mutual funds not only was the historical rate of return important to me, but the strength of the company was more important to me. I had to ask the question, how likely is the company to continue in business or continue this fund. To me that is a logical question. In my world of banking, institutions are not only bought out on a regular basis, but often several times as the bigger banks prey on the smaller ones. Even larger banks get swallowed up by more profitable smaller ones.

Would you not advise your clients to at least be aware of the possibility that if CLCT is swallowed up, they might redo the registry or do away with it? I have dozens of friends who are now exbankers who swore their bank would never be bought out.

barberlover · September 2, 2003 2:20AM

Something is being left out of this discussion of the hypothetical, that is why did the gradeing services like pcgs and ngc catch on and last so long in the first place ?

When the mint state grading scale of 11 points from 60-70 was first filled in, there was no broad agreement on say, what seperated a mint state 64 from a 65. In order to ask more [and get more] for the 65 then the 64, there needed to be assurance in the collectors mind that what he or she bought as a 65 today would still be a 65 tommorrow or ten years from now.

I think as long as this assurance is demanded by the collecting public, the need for the grading companies like pcgs will continue.

It seems to me that what Michael was hinting at was that many coins have there value tied up in the grade on the plastic rather then the coin inside, and certainly I agree that is risky, but everyone has to make the decision for themselves if that risk is worth it or not to them.

I've heard many people come on these boards and knock pcgs or ngc as plastic companies, but those of you that do that, were you colleting in the 70's and early 80's ? I was and from what I remember, it was because of the practices going on then with ever changing grading standards and differences of opionion from one dealer to the next as well as out right fraud on the part of some dealers that brought the need out for third party grading in the first place.

I do think there are some really troubling customer service issues that have somewhat shaken my confidence recently in pcgs, but I hope David will address them [like either paying fair market value for designation errors or not designating coins].
But irrespective of that, it is much better now then it was before pcgs was here.

Les

Typetone · September 2, 2003 2:21AM

Gosh, I do hate to agree with Mitch, but it looks like a shot at PCGS.

All responses ignore the economics. Think about what would have had to have happened for PCGS to literally close it's doors. Not sell out to some other organization, or merge with NGC or whatever, but to literally close its doors with no buyer.

Seems the market would have already collapsed. All coins, registry listed or not would be down. The closing of PCGS or any coin related organization would be the result of, not the cause of a crash. Would some coins have fallen more than others on a % basis. Sure, but unlikely to be the result of the registry phenomenon as most series are now well represented by registry participants.

So if the hypothetic closing of PCGS wouldn't have any further impact on coin prices, what is the point of the question. It seems that the author is asserting that PCGS grading and the PCGS registry are artificially inflating prices currently which might lead to the hypothetic crash. That is a debatable subject, but as Mitch points out, the question should be expanded to include NGC/ANACS (ie the entire grading industry).

Personally, my belief is that the advent of quality third party grading (PCGS/NGC/ANACS) has led to a rise in the price of high quality rare coins. But, I do not feel it is artificial. Before grading, collectors would be at the mercy of dealers who sold the same coin at a higher grade than they would be willing to buy it for. In that scenario a rational market clearing price would be lower than under a regime where buy and sell grades are agreed upon. Think about it, would youpay more for an MS65 coin that you knew you could sell as an MS65, or one that you would have to sell as an MS64 (even if it was MS65 quality in your opinion).

Now, don't tell me you would pay the same because you buy the coin. Despite your own perceived skill, the market of collectors as a whole does not perceive itself as having that skill. So, market clearing prices would be lower. Or, think of it like this. Based on your skill you might know you have a premium quality MS65 coin. However, when you go to sell it, you have to convince a skeptical marketplace to get the best price. The holder is the tool to help you do the convincing.

Greg

wondercoin · September 2, 2003 2:25AM

"Personally, I feel NGC is great now that Rick Montgomery is there. Rick is a straight shooter who truly cares about the direction of numismatics"

NGC is a great company and Rick is fantastic. You may have seen that I personally selected Rick if there was going to be a few judges selected to look at a mix of NGC and PCGS coins in an inter-company "showdown". Rick is a straight-shooter and a man of honor as far as I am concerned. And, we totally agree on something for a change - let's enjoy the moment

My point was simply this - why go to the NGC meesage board and post the EXACT same question there? Since we all greatly respect NGC's position in the maketplace, to be frank - IMHO it is a "slap in face" to go their and ask their readers what would happen if PCGS went out of business and the PCGS Registry collapsed? Ask what would happen if NGC' Registry collapsed if you really care to know the impact on slabs of key companies going out of business - unless, again, the question had a deeper meaning behind it in the first place.

Wondercoin

wondercoin · September 2, 2003 2:29AM

"So if the hypothetic closing of PCGS wouldn't have any further impact on coin prices, what is the point of the question. It seems that the author is asserting that PCGS grading and the PCGS registry are artificially inflating prices currently which might lead to the hypothetic crash. That is a debatable subject, but as Mitch points out, the question should be expanded to include NGC/ANACS (ie the entire grading industry)."

Greg: I often hate to agree with you as well

Wondercoin

ohbaby · September 2, 2003 2:30AM

This is actually a two parter question.

If the registry were gone tomorrow you would see the prices of super grade moderns crater. Collectors would no longer have the PCGS site to validate their spending $10,000 on an IKE or $20,000 on a modern day coin. What is amusing is how some people "need" someone to validate their questionable purchases. In essence validation [being the number one or top ten] gives them a sense of pride to compensate for some other deficiency. But that is a whole other thread. BTW, I feel the end of the registry will occur as more and more people find it meaningless and something else comes into vogue. Afterall, why spend tens of thousands and then sell losing 15-25% of your money? To be number 1?

If PCGS grading disappeared someone else would fill the void, NGC? Or maybe another comer? Lesser of an impact on coins than most people think. Especially on those truly rare coins, not those moderns where the difference between a 67 and 68 or a 69 and 70 is indistinguishable.

As I have said before imagine your coins without the holder. How much would you pay? Or, how comfortable are you cracking out all your coins and selling them raw? If you owned a red 2c ms64 you probably don't have much to worry about. But if you owned a 1971 MS66 or higher Ike I would be worried.

Typetone · September 2, 2003 2:56AM

ohbaby:

I think all coins cracked out would be worth much less. Particularly, in a regime when there is no way to get them reholdered (because the companies are gone). If I had a 64RB 2c and I cracked it out who would buy it? Well, a dealer would say its a 62BN. A collector might think 64RB, but would know that when he went to sell a dealer would say 62BN. So, he wouldn't pay 64RB prices. He would think, if the coin really was a 64RB why isn't it in a 64RB holder. In a holder, there is no debate. One can certainly argue about whether the coin is PQ or lower quality, but one can't argue about what the grading company says it is. And what a grading co says it is, is closer to an absolute standard.

The 71P IKE is a good example. A company like PCGS can look at thousands and give the best twenty or so the 66 grade. While not perfect, PCGS isn't bad. I have seen lots of 71P 64s, 65s, and 66s. Generally, the 66s are the best pieces. What a top 20 71P should sell for is a market question, but we have at least pretty well indentified the best. If all 71Ps were raw, and we looked at a particular 66 candidate piece, few of us would know whether that coin is in the top twenty, or top 100 for that matter. Maybe a few specialists could figure it out, but most of us wouldn't have seen enough to make the determination. So, the price would certainly be lower than a holdered 66. PCGS has seen enough of all coins and dates, IMO to make a pretty good determination. NGC as well, though it is easier to compare within services than between.

Greg

Greg

DHeath · September 2, 2003 2:59AM

Lose 10k on an Ike, or 10k on a high grade Trade dollar, it's still 10k. A down market is a down market. You gentlemen are fooling yourselves if you think ebb tide wouldn't affect the whole spectrum of collectors.

ohbaby · September 2, 2003 3:10AM

I guess I did not articulate my point well enough. Sure all coins would be affected BUT it is those which derive their value from for lack of a better word, hype, that will be most affected.

These moderns which are pop top selling for moon money have so much at risk versus a truly rare coin. The 2c I mentioned has maybe a $600 value vs the Ike which can fetch thousands.

I can guess with say 50% accuracy the difference between a raw 64 and 65. I am guessing when it's a 67 vs 68 and flip a coin [pun intended] when you are talking 69 vs 70.

IrishMike · September 2, 2003 3:42AM

The question could have been posed if either one of them i.e. NGC or PCGS grading or registry went away, which would have the greatest affect on coin values. I would argue that the answer is obvious, PCGS would have a greater affect. I don't see this as taking a shot at either company, the market is what it is. Before someone says only on certain coins, I agree.

DHeath · September 2, 2003 3:58AM

Actually Ohbaby, I take your point, and partially agree. I was only observing pop tops are not a uniquely modern phenomenon, and neither is moon money. The moderns seem to always be the focus of these discussions, but the collectors paying huge premiums for condition rarities do so in all areas of the hobby. There are many classic coins which derive much of their value from the holder as well. JMO Doing an apples to apples comparison, an MS64 Ike doesn't represent much risk either.

Trime · September 2, 2003 5:06AM

IMHO, a portion of this thread seems to have gotten out of hand. I am not qualified to speak for Michael and certanly was not asked to do so, but will attempt never the less.
I believe Michael was asking how much current prices are influenced by the presence of registries (collection scoring). I am certain that he couldn't care less about whether this was a PCGS or NGC registry. I am also equally certain that he has no vested interest or even a bias of one versus the other. He is only interested in the coins and only the outstanding ones. If he has a message inbedded in the question it is his concern over the welfare of other collectors.

michael · September 2, 2003 6:00AM

RKKAY you hit the nail on the head!!!!!!

cherrypickincoin you hit the nail on the head!!!!!!!!

artr you hit the nail on the head!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

trime you hit the nail on the head!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

irishmike you hit the nail on the head!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

and any others i forgot to mention past present and future!

thanks guys for not being in fear and making slanderous statements!!!

with deep respect

michael

wondercoin · September 2, 2003 6:06AM

"thanks guys for not being in fear and making slanderous statements!!!"

Michael: I certainly hope you were not referring to my comments (and opinion, which I am entitled to as well and which was set out without curse words or hyper exchanges), which you chose to not even address. If you come freely to a public message board with a thread like this, you should be prepared to address fair comments like mine. You may not agree with me - I don't expect you to. But, I believe your clear ommission of NGC and its Registry in your thread speaks volumes (see Typetone's comment for further amplification). Care to discuss?

Wondercoin

cladking · September 2, 2003 6:10AM

<< <i>I guess I did not articulate my point well enough. Sure all coins would be affected BUT it is those which derive their value from for lack of a better word, hype, that will be most affected.

These moderns which are pop top selling for moon money have so much at risk versus a truly rare coin. The 2c I mentioned has maybe a $600 value vs the Ike which can fetch thousands.

I can guess with say 50% accuracy the difference between a raw 64 and 65. I am guessing when it's a 67 vs 68 and flip a coin [pun intended] when you are talking 69 vs 70. >>

You can flip the same coin to determine the difference between 67 & 68 whether
it's a two cent piece or an Ike dollar. Neither coin derives its value from the grading
service any more or any less than the other.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there are truly rare moderns just as there
are truly rare classics. So why single out moderns?

There are lots of interesting points and well thought out answers here.

The elimination of the registries is (as has been pointed out) incapable of occuring in a
vacuum. There would already be tremendous fallout from the collapse of the entire coin
market if the registries simply ceased or PCGS shut down operations because of a lack
of business. Even if this scenario were possible it would likely have far less effect on the
market than most imagine. Much of the reason that the registries exist has nothing to do
with ego or lots of collectors with more money than sense, it has to do with the internet.
In the old days if a collector wanted to put together a top quality set it would have been
virtually impossible. He'd have either spent a life time searching rolls and inventory or he'd
have had to pay someone a lifetimes wages to do it for him. Today high grade coins can
be found much more easily. This is partly because the grading services have separated
them by quality but much more because one can sit at his computer and search the inven-
tory of hundreds of coin sellers.

DHeath · September 2, 2003 6:30AM

The 84-S Morgan personifies the coin I see as representing the greatest loss of capital.

VF = $19
EF = $36
AU = $325
60 = $3650
62 = $8500
63 = $28500
64 = $107500
65 = $190000
66 = $275000
67 = $450000

Suppose you own a nice borderline 67 that made it into the holder after 20 tries. Now suppose PCGS/NGC/ANACS and their associated market and guarantee were gone. Makes the moderns look pretty tame huh.

michael · September 2, 2003 6:39AM

for me there is nothing to discuss

i posted a thread and expected some comments

i did not expect anyone to get a ?guilty conscience?

become fearful and attack me

which for me is okie

you cant fix correct change convert anyone but yourself

i think you should look inside yourself instead of attacking outside of yourself

if you look inside yourself there you will find the answers you seek but i must admit you might not like what you see but it is there nonetheless
anger and fear never got anyone anywhere

me thinks the debate is within yourself

and myself i think you are a much better man than your words have shown on this thread!

michael

wondercoin · September 2, 2003 6:46AM

"i posted a thread and expected some comments"

And you got some. Your anti-modern, anti-PCGS, tacit or express, position was just a bit too "thick" today and I responded, as did Typetone. No biggie; next thread

Wondercoin

Typetone · September 2, 2003 6:49AM

For those who think PCGS, plastic, the registry, and the internet are all hype, who wants to go back to these days?

Greg

Back in the "Good Old Days"

dbldie55 · September 2, 2003 6:50AM

I would like to see a borderline MS67 1884-S. It is clear PCGS has never seen one either. Many Morgans have a nice track record for bringing record money even raw.

DHeath · September 2, 2003 6:56AM

Dbldie,

Respectfully, what percentage of that market buys anticipating holdering a coin for a tidy profit, or for perhaps an upgrade? Are you of the opinion the raw coin in the absence of TPG would fetch the same money? Would it be as easy to market?

MikeKing · September 2, 2003 7:05AM

Michael, did you ever think you'd be as powerful as Alan Greenspan?

DMWJR · September 2, 2003 7:15AM

All that would do is close the market and assure that there would not be any more PCGS coins graded. If it happened right now, I would imagine that the value of the PCGS plastic that I have right now would actually increase in value.

jdimmick · September 2, 2003 7:27AM

Dont think I would lose a dime, My Key-date collection would be unaffected.

If even nobody wanted to buy PCGS slabbed coins anymore, then I break them all out send them to ANACS or NGC and theyd all come back at least the same grade, with a majority of them possibly a half grade to grade higher.

jim

michael · September 2, 2003 8:38AM

well i must admit mike king i am certianly getting quoted and mis quoted

as it diverted the real issue of this thread

if you are afraid to answer then attack mis quote use words that i never used here hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm what are they afraid of?

well it is a biggie to many coin buyers at their expense which they have not figured out yet with some coin dealers not making a market or believing in specific coins they sell

michael

NewmisED · September 2, 2003 8:41AM

I would imagine that the value of the PCGS plastic that I have right now would actually increase in value.

So it IS true........Doug collects plastic.

cladking · September 2, 2003 8:43AM

<< <i> what are they afraid of?

>>

This says it all right here.

Some of us feel like we're all in this together and some feel others aren't quite as worthy.

Bear · September 2, 2003 8:58AM

The answer for Frankies, is that we would all send our raw coins to lucy for her

seal of approval and grading. As for a loss of a company with the prestige of PCGS

it would cause a major disequilibrium in the coin market place with values becoming

fluid for an extended period of time. While companies will always seek to fill a created need,

it will take a long times for any company to reach the status of PCGS, if ever. Just the thought

of this question has distressed me.

if pcgs grading and the registry were gone tomorrow??

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