I feel bad for set collectors
Wabittwax
Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭
Not to put a dark cloud over the graded card industry, but I believe we are about to hit a stalemate. Common cards from the 60's and later (with the exception of a few sets) are not worth grading anymore. I have submitted a couple thousand commons from 1974-1980 over the last year or two but I'm pretty sure that I am done with that era now. Lately I've been grading 1975 Topps and reselling them but cards are in the tanker right now. I've actually graded more than 1% of all the 1975 Topps myself. I have about 300 more 1975 that I am getting ready to send in but I have decided to weed them out for obvious 8's so I am down to 150 that have a shot at 9's. I was paying $500-$600 per mint/nm 1975 Topps set but I won't do that anymore. Graded commons from a lot of those years are about to come to a screetching halt because resell prices are lower than grading fees, even for PSA 9's in a lot of 70's sets! Take a look at this. It's all supply and demand I know and no one person can affect it either way but it will be interesting to see how dedicated collector's are to complete their sets when the supply has dried up. Guys like DSL and Shoeless are eventually going to realized that they are losing money on grading commons. Will collector's pay what it takes to get a card they need or leave their set at 20% for years? This next year will weed out the men from the boys. With 102 people making the 1975 Topps set, a pop 20 common barely gets grading fees. What's up with that? I think many people aren't very serious about making their sets. If commons do come to a dead halt though, prices will eventually come back up as supply dries up and dealers will start to resubmit again, but that may be a 2 or 3 year cycle. I'm curious to know how many of you 70's guys will pay whatever it takes to complete your set if supply dries up or will you be happy at 50% complete for months and months. Or will you be happy submitting cards yourself at $6 each and when they come back a PSA 9, they are worth $3 each. Any opinions?
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Comments
There is bountiful amounts of high grade raw 70's and 80's material out there. Set builders from the years you mentioned can still buy sets or partial sets/groups of commons cheaply enough to submit their own cards for grading. They don't have to buy them already graded. As you said, the law of supply (lots of raw high grade) exceeds the demand (for cards in graded form).
Setbuilders Sports Cards
Ebay: set-builders & set-builders2
You know,I'm no genius or critic but your topic would be much easier to read if ya made an attempt at paragraphs,forced myself to read as it is interesting what you bring up but it made my eyes hurt.
My Auctions
My belief is that submitting 72 Topps or newer to get 9's is a gambler's game in which only the strong and skilled prosper. But human nature tells me that people will believe that they can beat the odds. Buying unopened wax or submitting raw cards from the 70's, needing to get alot of 9's or better is a crapshoot. It's not much different than the people who buy new wax, hoping to get a limited numbered card or special insert. Yet, vintage collectors have been predicting the complete and utter ruin of that market for two decades now. It's still here, and the riverboat mentality of the raw submitter isn't going away any time soon either.
I seem to have a real problem with run on sentences. lol.
John
Since David mentioned 72 - I'll continue with that set...
The PSA 8 market has fallen through the floor. I've had PSA 8's that didn't bring the $8.00 minimum bid that I was asking over the last few months. Most PSA 9's have been selling for $24.99 because thats where most of us have set the starting price (artificially high? Maybe... but I'll hold on to it rather than take less and most other dealers/collectors are doing the same). Does the market change over time? ABSOLUTELY!
As of a month ago, a new 72 collector joined the fray and decided to win everything that he went after. Consequently, the prices on some cards that would be gone for $40 - 3 months ago jumped to $140.00. In response to those bids, some others have been bidding a little bit higher. And as more dealers see the higher prices being paid, they've been submitting more 72's and posting them on eBay. (the number of 9's that have been on eBay last last few months had dropped dramatically as prices dropped).
Couple these thoughts with the fact that the "self-submitters" on these boards are seeing that its getting much tougher to find high quality raw cards (50's darn near impossible, 60's more work for fewer cards, 70's still a boatload out there - but a smaller boatload than last year) then we're going to see a time when prices will move back up... and more collectors will come on board... Don't forget - as of Sept 1, you must be a Gold or Platinum member to submit. That might thin the herd a little.
The thing that I think that we REALLy need is for companies like PSA and Superior to turn some of their advertising from the collecting crowd already on board - to the potential customers who have no idea about the market, grading and the baseball, football, basketball, hockey and non-sports cards from their youth.
Just my 2 cents...
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
<< <i>In the last 2 years I have cracked vending cases, vending boxes, rack boxes and packs, wax, etc..., but I really don't do that anymore.
<< <i>
There-in lies part of the problem. If you are sourcing your raw cards from unopened, the equation will continue to tilt against you over time. Although there's still tons of wax out there from the mid-70s onward, the more you open, the less there is. This results in more high grade raw vintage and less unopened. The prices of the raw cards then get reduced due to the greater availability and the prices of unopened increases due to reduced supply.
There are a handful of exceptions, where PSA 9's are still proven to be rare and difficult to find.
However -- the money seems to be in the PSA 10's -- and I have yet to meet anyone who can get 10s with any consistency. The difference between 10s and 9s is often so subtle (Except for when it is something obvious like a dot or centering) -- that I know of no submitter who routinely is banking on the 10s to put them over the top...
First, regarding the title of the thread, I too would feel bad for set collectors if they bought graded commons from the '70s for investment from 2000-2002. This glut of cards wasn't a shock to me. Several years ago in the early days of this Message Board we talked about "the Mickey Mantle theory of card population". The theory is that if you look at any year that Mantle was graded you would see that an enormous amount of his cards were graded compared to other players, especially commons in that same series or set. The conclusion was that there are as many commons floating around, but the vast majority haven't been graded yet. So the numbers are starting to catch up and there's clearly not the same demand for commons as Mantle cards. This is true for '70's cards if you look at Pete Rose, Johnny Bench, Mike Schmidt, et al.
But if you are buying for the fun and pleasure of collecting, then this is actually great news. It's a buyer's market. Dealers will stop submitting cards for grading when it doesn't become profitable and then more raw cards are going to showing up at dealer's tables at shows. Maybe it will be 1998 all over again in the very near future.
The market is dictated by supply and demand. The supply seems plentiful in most '70s issues and even '68 Topps has gotten really soft lately and same is true with a lot of PSA 8 commons with higher population from any of the '60's issues. My bigger concern about the hobby (and this was also shared with the other people I had that discussion at the National with) is that very few new collectors are joining the hobby. Beyond the stigma that it's a hobby for nerds and geeks, the hobby industry itself doesn't market itself that well into the mainstream. The corporations that make money off of this hobby need to think beyond the trade magazines and conventions and some how convince the nation and the world for that matter, that this is a great hobby. Until that happens, it will be pretty much business as usual.
Boggs cards are down way down. 8's are worthless except Rookies. 9's will fetch under 10.00 and I can pick up 10's very cheap. I bought an PSA 10 Leaf 1990 for under 20.00 can remember off hand. A year ago one sold for 150.00 I think it it at it all time low. I am buying when I can. I was shut out on the 1984 DK PSA 10 ebay was down when it ended at 77.00. It will pick up again soon next year maybe. When I finish my basic set I am done except for upgrades. With the market down I will try to find something I enjoy and is a bargain so if I ever sell I wont get hosed to bad.
James
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Its funny that you should mention
<< <i>the hobby industry itself doesn't market itself that well into the mainstream. >>
I had a whole paragraph in my previous post that dealt with the same issue - then decided to delete it before I submitted the reply.
I think that issue is a double edged sword. As a collector, I'd like to complete my sets and see the value go up. But, if more people get involved in the hobby, the value (and cost) will go up before I complete!
SO, I decided to let that sleeping dog lie.
But, yes... all marketing is targeted at those of us that are already involved. There are probably a lot more "nerds and geeks" that would be happy to get on board if they knew about the changes that the hobby has seen over the last decade or two.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
In that 30-55 demographic there are a lot of people still on the sidelines from the late 80's-Early 90's hobby crash. They are so far back on the sidelines that they don't even know that vintage has made a turnaround with grading, the registry, and set building. This something that has been enjoyed through the ages and still has lots of revitalization rooom to explore.
The real future is in our youth. PSA can help, even dealers who currently enjoy the benefits of the set building trend can pitch the comradery and the technology angles to convert the kids. PSA websites interactive nature is a sure winner with any computer geek and can be much better moving forward.
I have chased this post a little off topic but you guys have it right. Demand is the key. Grow the demand.
RayB69Topps
Personally, I don't get a card graded (that I intend to sell) unless it's (1) a card with an anticipated grade that SMR's for at least $50, or (2) a very, very low-pop common from the 1960's and earlier.
I think we've definitely reached a saturation point for 1970's and later, and in the 1960's to some extent as well. I don't see a recovery (demand overwhelming supply) any time in the foreseeable future ..... many, many years.
Skycap
(I originally posted this on another thread by mistake)
There was noticeably more competition in yesterday's auctions.
I agree that the market is way down for 60's and 70 cards and I don't see prices rising anytime soon.However with 50's cards,prices seem to be holding their own.It may be that since I am collecting 56's,which seemingly are among the most popular set of the 50's,prices are still fairly strong.I would expect to see prices stay reasonably strong for most of the of the less collected sets,such as the early Bowman and Topps sets.I think that the reason late 40's and most 50's sets will stay strong is that there are not as many collectors building those sets due to collectors age,amount of investment needed for completion of set, and familiarity of those players with collectors.
Dude makes a good point in that there certainly are not a glut of new collectors joining our ranks.After all,the backbone of this hobby as far as new collectors is concerned will always be kids.I attribute this almost exclusively to the greed of major card companies and their shortsightedness in mass production.Then,there is the problem of being able to put a set together without spending a small fortune due to the fact that even distribution of cards is a joke.That,coupled with the price of a pack of cards that in most cases kids cannot afford makes this hobby almost a dinosaur.
While the "chase"cards certainly did wonders for card companies bottom line,they ultimately will be the demise(or already have been)of card collecting as we know it.
Does anybody else long for the days when you could sit down and open a couple of wax boxes and come real close to putting together a complete set,then buying a few packs in search of those remaining elusive cards?
Vic
<I think that the reason late 40's and most 50's sets will stay strong is that there are not as many collectors building those sets due to collectors age,amount of investment needed for completion of set, and familiarity of those players with collectors.>
Logically, your argument would be used as to why the market would be weaker...not stronger. What am i mising?
Regards,
Alan
Absolutely great thread you've started.
Gemint, FB, you guys make some points that are not so obvious and should be taken seriously by PSA and collectors alike.
I, for one, am more aggressive with my set than ever right now. Controlling my ego is most important these days. There is no need to "feel sorry for the set builder" in these times. If the set builder is doing it for love of the set/memories/childhood or whatever reason makes him warm and fuzzy...There are some rules the 70's set builder NEEDS to follow to avoid a money-pit...here's a couple...
Buy what pleases you. Don't chase cert #'s if you can help it, and whenever possible submit your own stuff. Try to buy the very best of the best regardless of the grade. There's a PSA 10 on eBay right now of a card that I already have in a "virtually perfect" PSA 9. I contacted the seller and found ...Quote: "I wouldn't have graded this a 10. It's off-white, a bit off-center with a very questionable corner...it's fuzzy...it won't make your set, Phil"... Here I was ready to go nuts for a card I already had because my ego got going. This self control (I struggle with it) will allow me to continue upgrading my cards over and over and finish with some scary cards. The best of the best will never go out of style and always command a premium. How big a premium will go in cycles. I DO think the cert buyer is in for a rude awakening when the realization hits people...there are some grotesquely overgraded 9's and 10's from the 70's...don't think this hasn't hurt eBay prices, either--it has...but that's another thread. I plan to be doing my set for years. It will be the only graded set I'll ever do (grading is too inconsistent and subjective for my tastes) and I still look at my cards nightly. How many set-builders rotate their cards in the display case to keep the eye fresh? Don't feel sorry for me as a set-builder, this is the most fun I've had in collecting. I enjoy the heck out of my cards. Try to buy the best of the best. If the quality is truly there the set sells itself...PSA or no PSA...wax, how's that for a run-on???
dgf
P.S. I will still pay $6 each and shipping both ways for your raw 77 commons...email me if you've got any. Have you got a vending box you want to break for the stars but don't know what to do with those "worthless" commons...I'm your man!!! Break the box, pull the Ryan, Dawson, Brett, Munson, etc. and ship me the rest. I'll take what I can use that you don't want and pay you $6 per card and round-trip shipping. One man's trash is another man's treasure...
I think there are proportionally more late 1940's through 1950's collectors chasing their target graded card supply than later-year collectors chasing their target graded card supply. That's why the value of late 1940's and 1950's cards has held up.
Skycap
John
There are just enough collectors within this market to keep prices up and the availability of high grade material is certainly limited.While I don't think that the supply of high grade cards is drying up entirely,there was not anything that I found at the national that was acceptable for grading in a PSA 8 or better.Although I am not as familiar with the major dealers as some and that may have been a factor in my lack of results. It seems that the dealers are all submitting anything that would presumably grade that high.I didn't find many dealers that had much at PSA being graded.I would say(just a guess) that the amount of raw cards was probably greater at this national than at nationals of the last couple of years.I also didn't find much in the way of graded (PSA 8 or higher) cards in the 56 set at all.As a matter of fact,in that high of a grade,there seemed to be a significantly smaller % of cards altogether for most of the 50's.
Of course,it could be that my argument is A$$ backwards.
Vic
I agree with your point very much, however not all cards were saved by dealers....
When I was a young punk, my collector buddies and I constantly displayed, handled, and pretty much "wore-out" various superstar player cards. Some of us even cleverly defaced enemy or rival teams' superstar cards. Those no-name common cards were basically left alone once obtained for our sets. Condition was hardly a concern, so why play with the commons ?? Of course since the publicity in the early 80s, kids know about condition and value.
I have always felt once a set-builder gets his particular card, maybe a second or duplicate one, he is almost certain to NOT bid on any additional copies in the same grade/condition. Also some set collectors are not looking to get every single card in graded shape. They may desire getting the keys and perhaps a few commons in slabs, but can enjoy the other 80-90% of the set in nice raw form. This makes for a very mixed or unstable market for commons.
The Set Registry is still quite new by hobby standards, while not the only reason to collect graded commons, it is a strong force. More publicity and promotion should increase interest. New collectors or converts from other venues like different graders or raw cards will be needed to keep demand up.
to pull stars in the 60s and most cards were commons
and leaders,team cards and checklists.in boxes i swear
there were more checklists than any other duplicate,next
to of course dick schofield.so as Dan the Dude has brought
to our attention if i.e.,2000 mantles are submitted in a year
and 10 joe jays (assuming same series) then there should be
a ridiculous amount of ungraded commons out there-somehwere.
true many of us flipped 'em but there was oneheckuva ratio
of "worthless" cards in all those packs.had we known to
never open them,now that would be something.
I am new to the board. I'm working on a PSA graded 1958 topps set (started about 8 months ago) I expect it will take about 5 years to complete the set-- I collect for the fun and not as an investment, although like everyone I like to know my money is being put into something that will at least hold its value.
Prices for 1958 topps have increased 20% (for high pop cards)- to the sky's the limit (for low pop cards) in the past year.
1958 topps PSA 8 Marshall # 441: $172 (ebay)- pop of 14 in "8"
1958 topps PSA 8 Turley AS: $125 (ebay) pop of 27 in "8"
1958 topps PSA 8 E Johnson (WN): $2000+ pop of ?1 at the time, now up to 3!
I think you have to put the year into perspective... supply and demand... too many high grade 1970s cards, not enough collectors building high grade sets.
1950s--- not enough high grade stuff for the number of set builders.
I personally believe that there is relatively little raw stuff from the 50s in PSA 8 or higher still out there but lots of PSA 8 from the 1970s.
It depends on how nice you want 'em. I did '57s in 7-8 with tremendous ease compared to building 70's sets in legitimate mint condition. I would agree that building 70's sets in NM or even NM/MT isn't too taxing, but high-grade for 70's means 9's or better. If you're not a cert. buyer---and even if you are-- that's harder than you think. I've done 50's and 70's and they're pretty comparable...depending on how nice you gotta have 'em. Also, and this may hurt, there are more people with increasing discretionary income in the 30-something crowd who have more warm fuzzies for Schmidt and Brett than Ed Mathews. The hobby won't feel this for a few years but it's coming. These collectors will chase childhood and may fall out of love with players they never actually saw. Willie, Mickey and the Duke were the greatest and will always have a following, but so will Schmidt, Brett and Yount. It's even more obvious with commons...it's amazing when I talk to guys doing 50's and 60's sets, full of players from prior to their birth, hearing them mispronounce the names...70's cards are still a few years away from a mature following, but they ARE coming...and the supply of TRUE quality is not as limitless as you think...
dgf
sentimental value does add some extra worth to a card ..but scarcity is what makes it go up steadily over time.
my guess would be that most pre war collectors never saw any of those players play.
for every 10 new members that joins the 70's gang there will be 1000's of new cards graded psa 8 or better.
for every 1 collector that joins the 50s gang ...there might only be so many cards to go around.
i believe that as a regular collector gets more advanced in the hobby ...two things happen
1) he begins to specialize in a particular area ( a set, a team, obscure sets, etc) and begins to narrow his collection to the highest grade possible
2) he starts focusing in older, more challenging and nostalgic sets (50's and pre war)
Groucho Marx
Believe me... you don't have to be a newbie to offend around here!
I agree with your statements. Service is definitely a key, but its generally a key to keeping the existing customers satisfied than bringing new ones on board. I too was a little ticked that some of the dealers that I was looking to visit were either closed when I arrived during my "VIP hour" or closed before the show shut down for the day.
At the PSA Registry luncheon, Joe Orlando had a Q & A session. During it, I asked him a question about PSA's operations... I felt that PSA would go a long way towards quieting some grumbling on the boards if they could try to ensure that cards were graded "first in, first out" within each service level. Right now, you can have a vintage common invoice arrive on Sept 1 and get graded by Sept 29th, while another vintage common arrives on Sept 15th and be completed on Sept 22. This isn't a HUGE problem, but it is a source of annoyance, especially if its your invoice that sits around for a month while others come and go.
Sets - 1970, 1971 and 1972
Always looking for 1972 O-PEE-CHEE Baseball in PSA 9 or 10!
lynnfrank@earthlink.net
outerbankyank on eBay!
Did you read my post? 8's are pretty simple from the 70's...so are 7's from the 50's and 60's...the point is this...
There are not that many legitimate--key word, here-- MINT cards from the 70's. The 8 population from the 50's and certainly the 60's will be comparable to the 9-10 poulation of the 70's. Pair this with the fact that PSA is rather inconsistent with their 9's and 10's from the 70's (generous), it will make a super-sharp, centered, clean, focused, pack-fresh, 70's set look pretty good. Also...sad to say...life expectancy starts to play a role here as well. Pre-war guys will always be there, but I believe that number isn't going to grow significantly any time soon if you get my drift.
dgf
P.S. Have you taken a good look at any 70's vending recently...you may be enlightened by the horrors that lurk within.
-- Show closes to traffic at 6pm
-- Dealers mus be out of the hall at 6:30
-- Most dealers require an hour to 90 minutes to get their items secured for leaving them in the hall overnight
-- That means dealers must start packing up 30-60 minutes before the end of the show.
Arriving in the morning is a similar situation. Dealers can't start unpacking until they're allowed to their table.
That said, I agree that I've seen way too many dealers start packing up at 3pm or something - and seen tables totally locked up until 10 or 11am.
Mike
Website: http://www.qualitycards.com
Mike