1948 Leaf SGC 88 Brecheen

helionaut

I happened to read BMW's article/advertisment in Beckett Vintage this month and have been keeping an eye on their SGC 88 Brecheen. It had been slowly picking up in bidding as the days wore on. 15 minutes ago it was at $1226. Then all of a sudden it more than quadrupled to $5101. The leading bidder right now has a 1 feedback, so we'll see if that holds up, but that means someone else bid $5000.

Any thoughts on the final price? It certainly is a tough card. I was looking hard at 48L for a possible new set to start, but the gates to that sandbox are too high for me. This very tough SP I'm thinking will end up over to 5 figures-- $12,100.

mikeschmidt

My thoughts:

Third bidder on this card is in at $1,201 -- less than 10% the final hammer price. In many auctions -- the placement of the third bidder is paramount. If the winner decides to sell, it is at least a good starting point to what the seller would realize if (s)he decided to part with the card. Obviously, the timing of the bids is important to consider -- but it's a good starting point.

Second bidder has a feedback of one, has been on Ebay for nine months, and has only apparently won one item, a 1980-1981 Mark Messier rookie card graded PSA 9 MINT for $300. To have a $12,000 bid on this card come from out of nowhere seems.....surprising.

What were your thoughts on the centering of the card? It seemed to be less than perfect both from front and reverse

As a point of comparison, let's remember that a Ted Williams PSA 8 sold for less than $5,300 in a national auction, Vern Stephens for slightly over $1,500. So many commons/stars from the set are available for less money than this one.

Ball4cards is a frequent winner/bidder on BMW's auctions. Specifically, he won the Bronko Nagurski card for $80,000. He seems to frequently purchase high-dollar cards and seems to have the money to support it.

The 1948 Leaf baseball (And football!) sets will always be some of the toughest post-war sets out there. They are unimaginable tough in high grade -- but can be much easier if you start allowing 6s and 7s in your set. Throw in the SPs, and you have quite a little challenge on your hands.

As a [dated] point of comparison, it was about three years ago that one of the SP commons in PSA 10 GEM MINT grade sold for I believe less than $3,000. It may have been slightly more, like $4,400, but I don't recall specifically. Goodwin sold that example in a run of 8s, 9s and that 10 that he had come across.

uniship

great, now for the next 5 years we get to hear over and over and over and over and over how SGC cards are worth 5 figures in the grade of 88 from that set, and PSA's are relatively worthless. Wonderful.

z2345

Very impressive. Brecheen is one of the short prints but I understand that there are quite a few SPs in the 1948 Leaf set. Is there anything else about this player or this card that makes this card worth $12000?

Griffins

First off I've dealt with this seller for years and have had nothing but good experiences- in addition to that Brian did me a huge favor once that in the long run probably cost him some business, but he didn't think twice about it. All in all very professional with excellent service.
As far as the card goes I was absolutely floored by the price it went for. I've been pursuing this set for 4 years now, and the 49 short prints (plus the two variations) can be really tough, but I thought this might top out around 4K if things got really stupid. The centering on this one was too far off for the grade in my opinion, and I gave it a pass, although my snipe wouldn't have even registered.
2-3 years ago there were 4 of us going after this set and the prices got pretty high- g-vg shortprints were topping 800. A couple of guys finished the set, and the other guy and I emailed each other and called a truce. The prices for that condition settled back into the $250 range, with 7's going for around 700. It's a prime example of SMR being completely worthless. Brecheen may be one of the tough ones, but I wonder if it would've gone so high had it not been marketed so well in Beckett the week before the auction. Based on the results of this one if I was going to sell any of mine I'd call Brian to see if I could consign it!

cardbroad

Griffins "Based on the results of this one if I was going to sell any of mine I'd call Brian to see if I could consign it!"

I'd consign it on the contingecy that it's on ball4's want list. If it isn't they also make nice coasters.

aro13

The first sale of these cards is nice - but a key will be what they would sell for if they were to sell again. Agreed that the seller is first rate and their promoting of the cards is first rate. I would doubt, though, that this card would sell for anywhere near this amount the next time it sold.

goodriddance189

the seller is first rate. especially when it comes to hobby knowledge and business sense. that is where the praise should end. Wentz is a foul mouthed jerk, period. ive been reading up on the SGC boards, and most of his posts are blatantly attacking PSA. he resorts to childish name calling and unfounded accusations (even against some CU board members), sometimes even bordering on libel. it seems his whole m.o. is to bring down PSA. i can understand him choosing sgc over psa, but he should simply say that he likes sgc because they have better grading standards. many CU members use the same reason for choosing psa, but rarely (if ever) have i seen CU members attack sgc's business practices and the like. Wentz would make a great politician, he has already figured out how to run a great smear campaign. how ANYONE on these boards still tolerates him is beyond me.

gemint

Does anyone have a link to the scan of the card?

goodriddance189

<< <i>Does anyone have a link to the scan of the card? >>



just do a completed auctions search for bmw. this card would have gotten an 8 o/c at best from psa.

aro13

gemint-Here you go.
Link to Auction

helionaut

Here's the auction link
Centering isn't great. While you really can't tell from a scan, the it certainly looks as nice as most 8s I own, but maybe a little softness in the lower right corner. I don't know if it would've gotten an 8oc, it'd be close. With SGC's greater range of grades, it's tougher to compare directly.

As to losing bidders being a guide to possible value, that's not always accurate. I was seriously contemplating making a $1500 bid, thinking, stupidly, that I could win it in the greatest snipe of all time. But with over 2 hours to go, it went ballistic. So there could have been plenty of other people willing to go $2000, $4000, $5000, etc. but those bids couldn't be placed.

Still, future value of this particular card and any others that might surface will be interesting to follow. In Wentz's ad/article, he mentions the 52T Wehmeier as being a card in a similar situation. The first 8 sold for a huge sum ($30K, $80K? Can't recall), but the splash that made was soon followed with several more cards getting that grade and a dilution of value. When news of sales like this spread throughout the hobby, those guys that have a few nice commons laying around will get around to looking at what they might be worth. The original buyer might, and probably will take a hit, but then again, maybe not. Another 1 or 2 8s might not soften prices, but 4 or 5 will. This is a tough card, and if it took so long for this one to surface, can there be many more out there?

goodriddance189

<< <i>Centering isn't great. While you really can't tell from a scan, the it certainly looks as nice as most 8s I own, but maybe a little softness in the lower right corner. I don't know if it would've gotten an 8oc, it'd be close. With SGC's greater range of grades, it's tougher to compare directly. >>



he apparently took down the scan of the back- it was o/c about 5/95, on the verge of being miscut

mikeschmidt

The reverse of the card was definitely not as well-centered as the front. It was the t/b on the card reverse that was particulary not so nice.

z2345

<< <i>he apparently took down the scan of the back- it was o/c about 5/95, on the verge of being miscut >>




I wonder why he took down the scan of the back of the card. Did anyone save the scan of the back?

helionaut

Yes, here they are:
Front
Back

Vargha

It easily looks like a PSA 8 on the front, but doesn't seem to make the 90/10 centering requirement for the back.

z2345

Thanks Helionaut. The front looks ok, but the top to bottom centering on the back of the card would just barely miss the miscut designation for PSA. Hopefully the buyer is not looking to cross this card over to a PSA holder.