Are we at the end of high-end raw vintage???

GATOR5

OK all you big boys chime in with the response and my ventures. The lock 8 in vintage
is starting to be rare in my opinion. How many collections do you guys know of that can
effect the pops.

Question being I see the mid 61-65 a good bet at the moment. I think the common 50's
stuff is already on a decline due to lack of interest or I already have it. I see alot of folks
getting into the early 60's at bargain prices due to over abundance of cards graded this
past year yet nobody can find them at shows. Are we at the bottom of the spike. 64 maris
vending fresh in a psa8 cant even open at 100 bucks. Common hungry we are but whats
left lmk, curious.

Myself well I can still impact 62's-65 but whats the use prices are scimpy...72 commons are
bringin double the money...

Your thought???????


Gator

pc

pops go up
demand drops.
economy stinks.
prices drop.
need new registry participants.

goodriddance189

i think high end vintage stuff is following the same path as the "antique store" finds (or attic finds, whatever, you get my drift) from several years ago. back before cards were big money items, vintage finds were pretty common. of course, whenever everyone understood the value, large finds became few and far between. i think the same goes for high end vintage stuff. by now, everyone realizes what vintage stuff will bring if graded. it makes little to no financial sense to sell high grade cards raw, when everyone knows that getting them graded will bring much more. so, i doubt there is any sizeable amount of high end vintage stuff that isnt either already graded, or will be shortly. just my 2 cents

-Will

jvineyard

I think you have to make a distinction between stars/semi stars and commons. I think you're correct with regard to stars and other generally high dollar cards, but I think there are plenty of high grade raw commons to be had. Until graded set building becomes more mainstream, it is still a gamble to grade a raw common from most sets.

Plus, there are a lot of collectors like me out there that have sets full of high grade raw commons. Before I caught the PSA bug I completed a run of Topps baseball sets from 1954 through 1980. Most of those sets contain commons that would be at least 8's - not all of them, but at least 1/3 to 1/2 of each set, and the rest are probably 7's. Unless I hit the lottery and get them graded, those commons won't be graded or hit the market again until I croak and my kids sell them off.

I'm sure there are a lot of sets like mine out there that will eventually get broken up and sold. When they are, the stars etc will certainly get graded, but the commons are just as likely to hit the market raw.

mrc32

I think there are a lot of nice raw sets out there like jvineyard's collection.

So I don't think we will hit a critical mass and everyboday can say..."Look the supply has dried up."

I think there will continue to be trickle of nice commons that come on the market.

Maybe the better question for the title of this thread is "Are we at the end of high-end raw vintage in dealers books?" The answer to that is probably yes. If the price for nice raw examples goes up...there will be more people that will bring out thier sets and sell.

goodriddance189

<< <i>I think you have to make a distinction between stars/semi stars and commons. I think you're correct with regard to stars and other generally high dollar cards, but I think there are plenty of high grade raw commons to be had. Until graded set building becomes more mainstream, it is still a gamble to grade a raw common from most sets. >>



i see your point, and in terms of getting your money's worth by grading cards (any grade) stars/semis are always the way to go. a psa 5 common wont get you jack on ebay, but a psa 5 star will get at or near the price you could sell it for ungraded. that wasnt the point i was trying to make though. if someone is sitting on a stash of psa 8 or 9 quality commons, odds are he will get them graded. psa 8's bring around $15 each on ebay, still more than you would make selling em for $3 bucks a pop (plus the $7 grading fee). so why wouldnt someone want to send their commons in, if they havent already?

gemint

I agree that there are a lot of high end raw sets out there. You'll see them slowly hit the market either through a Mastro auction or through the major dealers who will purchase them from the original owners and then break them up (either raw or graded). I think it will be many years before high grade raw cards become scarce. If you limit your choices by chasing a specific card or set, it can appear that there are no high end raw cards left. However, if you look broadly (e.g., any NM-MT 1950's commons), then you can come across them rather frequently.

murcerfan

I think the supply of raw high grade Football, Basketball and Hockey is still decent.

AlanAllen

please refer the guys hoarding the high-grade raw vintage football to me: joetocco@cox.net. kthx.

mikeschmidt

There are still a number of people out there who built their raw sets in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s who have many raw high grade commons (and stars) ungraded. While there may be a drying-up of their availability in the public markets -- there should continue to be a trickle of these cards into graded card holders for the indefinite future. Yes, there will always be tough cards in each set -- but, also yes, I think that there is enough supply out there to support a larger collector base for many of said sets in PSA 8 condition.

And there really seems to be more than ample PSA 7 Near Mint quality raw stuff out there for most post-war sets. It is just that the distinction presently in collectors' mind often have gargantuan multiples differentiating a tough PSA 8 from a similar PSA 7.

Machodoc

This might be stretching it a little, but I have been working on a 1933 Goudey set for some time, with emphasis on at least EX+ to EXMT examples. Although I picked up several at the Nat, I was overall disappointed with the quality of the available cards, especially the big star cards. More than once I had a dealer say that they more than ever slab the nicer cards (both 1933 and 1934) and leave the lower end stuff for us raw collectors.

I came to the Nat primed to find at least two of the 1933 Ruth cards and a nice Gehrig, but I did not see a single raw Ruth better than VG/EX, and although I did see one apparently spectacular Gehrig, there was some question of trimming on the bottom border. Quel dommage!

Most of the graded 1933 cards I saw were in the PSA3 to PSA5 range (Shoeless Joe had a great selection) and more than once I entertained the heresy of buying some 5's and cracking them out. Sanity returned quickly however and I was able to restrain myself.

Buckwheat

As far as getting nm/mt raw commons for $3, I think those days are gone. Most of the raw dealers at the show with any high grade stuff had seperated them out, and were selling them for much more. One dealer was selling raw "nm/mt" 61 commons for $12 to $18, and most of it was ex/mt. Another with cards that were probably 75% 7 and 25% 8 was selling them for $6 to $12 per card.

It becomes very risky to buy them at those prices and grade them.

Perhaps the majority of PSa 8 material will come from whole set sales of NM/MT cards. They come up occasionally, and produce several hundred high end cards from one set. I suppose they become available when people die and it gets sold, or people just want to raise some cash.

JasP24

After looking at quite a few card shops and quite a few card shows in the past year or so, I can say that at least in the Mid-Atlantic area, High end(and Im only talking PSA 8+) vintage 1960's and earlier FOOTBALL is S C A R C E. If I do find ANY, they are almost always PSA 4-5 material only. If by chance I do happen to find a descent vintage card the asking price is in the SMR PSA 9 range and that's usually a large chunk of change to plunk when chances are 50-50 that the card will actually get a 9.

Anyway, that's just my take...

Wabittwax

I don't see the logic in making raw sets anymore on pre 1950 stuff. There is so much trimmed stuff out there. Anything nice that isn't graded is probably altered. There is a reason why it's not graded. Also the value of a prewar set goes way up if every card is authenticated to not be altered, regardless of the grade that PSA puts on it. If you ever go to sell your raw set, every potential buyer will have alteration questions going through his mind.

GATOR5

Jasp-

Stay tuned, within the next year we will grade out our football (excuzme) and it will be pretty
impressive I've just been working out of the double binders. The 62s and 3's topps will be the
highlight along with the 72's. He has sendaway sets from 62-72 all ranging from nrmt and better.

Guys,

Yes everything you all say makes sense. I only to see a few cards at shows but the majority
of the stuff will come through mastro and so forth.

I just remember the early 80's looking through 5000 cts of 68's and 69's for my dad and the
commons were 5 cents. Baffles me when I see a low pop common going for crazy cash!!
I just stare at the computer boy should have been buying commons instead of stars.

Fabfrank

please refer the guys hoarding the high-grade raw vintage football to me: joetocco@cox.net. kthx.

Don't be greedy Joe. Send some of those guys the Fabfrank way.

Tipem

I have to agree that the quantity of high grade raw vintage is growing slimmer but I think that there will still be sets broken up and cards available .I do think that the days of finding dealers that are willing to sell them ungraded are probably over.I talked to many dealers at the national and the consensus was that if it was of 8 quality or higher,it went to the grading room.I did find one or two dealers that were selling raw in 8 or better condition and they were trying to get graded prices. I just couldn't see paying graded prices for ungraded cards.


Vic