Do you sense a frenzy building?
dpoole
Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
This run-up to Baltimore ANA is really something. What is it--20,000 lots in all those auctions?
I'm getting all these emailings now I've never gotten before. People begging for coins to sell, letting us know where they'll be at the show. I got one a little while ago from Paul Montgomery at B&M listing the years/grades of the coins I have in my Washington registry set, and linking all the upgrades they have in their auction for each date (making me feel pretty dang inadequate in the process, I might add!
) Wow!
I've only been back actively in the hobby since 1999, but I've never seen such a hype and buildup as this for a show.
My guess is that if this "frenzy" is affirmed by prices/activity at Baltimore, it will mark the point of a new level of activity and price increases in the hobby, and hang on to your hat. If Baltimore disappoints, we will see a disappointed doldrum for a while before it takes off again.
Any of you have any impressions?
I'm getting all these emailings now I've never gotten before. People begging for coins to sell, letting us know where they'll be at the show. I got one a little while ago from Paul Montgomery at B&M listing the years/grades of the coins I have in my Washington registry set, and linking all the upgrades they have in their auction for each date (making me feel pretty dang inadequate in the process, I might add!
) Wow! I've only been back actively in the hobby since 1999, but I've never seen such a hype and buildup as this for a show.
My guess is that if this "frenzy" is affirmed by prices/activity at Baltimore, it will mark the point of a new level of activity and price increases in the hobby, and hang on to your hat. If Baltimore disappoints, we will see a disappointed doldrum for a while before it takes off again.
Any of you have any impressions?
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i came back in 1999 myself after about a 10 year abscence and was amazed at the changes that had transpired in that time. that part of me that thinks i'm VERY important was stunned that i hadn't been consulted or at least notified!!! all the hype is self-serving and at some point, maybe Baltimore, maybe not, it will consume itself in the form to which you alluded where sales prices are way low. i think interest is still rising, but i have nothing but gut-instinct to base that on.
i try to stay optimistic, so my approach is to tune out the hype as best as i can and listen to collectors instead of the big sellers/auctioneers/consigners who have a vested interest in the outcome. the collectors i hear seem to think things are moving along nicely with no impending "thud" in the near future.
i'll admit to being pumped for next week. heck, this is my first biggeee!!
al h.
It wasnt like there rare pieces, just tougher ones to locate?
There are no economic factors or other factors to cause the market to "boom" however with low interest rates and many other investments that are none too promising, coins are a good alternative for many, hence the apparent strength.
Sales for me have been very good, especially considering that it is the summer.
adrian
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Here is their latest assessment:
"White hot" can no longer describe the current coin market. Temperatures have boiled over into mass chaos at the latest show in <fill in show name here>. People who came to the show thinking they could acquire coins by simply handing over their first born children left frustrated. Nothing short of human sacrifice or self-mutilation will even get you anywhere near this market. It was a scene straight out of Czarist Russia as frenzied coin-buyers attacked dealers for anything they could get their hands on. People were dumping cash out of their pockets as fast as they could. Fistfights ensued, greysheet carriers were trampled and pocket-protectors were smashed. A man beat a little old lady to death with his wallet as she walked to close to a coin he was about to pay 1,000 x sheet for. Therefore, I'm asking only <insert ridiculously high price here> for this coin. I have completely lost my mind. My loss is your gain. Come steal this coin from me for 100 x sheet.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
Yeah. I got the same email.
That would be POTD material over on the Open Forum, man!
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!
With the above in mine, buillion is boring compared to rare coins
Since the smart money is predicting frenzy, I am going to play contrarian and predict an okay show, which will disappoint because it is not "white hot." There is a lot of supply that needs to be taken down, 20,000 plus auction lots, dealer inventories, new deals at the show, etc.
At this juncture, the real question is can the market absorb what is being offered in all the auctions? I don't know and we will soon find out.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
i could also see many collectors converting to cash in order to build up reserves for the FORD sale(s).
K S
This coin market needs a little bit of a moderating/cooling effect.
The effect of the increased number of coins at this ANA show will hopefully moderate any price increase or to stabilize coin prices and to allow for a longer and more sustainable strong coin market.
<< <i>POTD? >>
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There are no economic conditions at this time to warrant a frenzy. I would suspect there is more risk today than say 2 years ago. High unemployment. Interest rates can't get much lower. Poor corporate earnings. Record personal bankruptcies. Budget deficits. California near broke. $1 billion/week Iraq cost with a multi year commitment. North Koreans acting up. Europe getting more protectionist.
Almost afraid to ask but can it get any worse? As I have said in the past, weak coin prices get me excited, I can buy smarter. Right now I really can't get excited.
<< <i>The effect of the increased number of coins at this ANA show will hopefully moderate any price increase or to stabilize coin prices and to allow for a longer and more sustainable strong coin market. >>
Gotta agree, I think the auction houses are in for a bit of a surprise. Too many coins, too high of prices, and not enough buyers at these high prices, will tend to put things back in perspective. Sure some of the well heeled dealers will buy a lot, but in the long run, unless they have committed buyers, they will eat it in the end.
Seems to be a selling hype, not a buyers outlook of the current market.
Of course, I could be wrong as usual. But for now I am going with this theory.
hey oreville
good thought and i also liked the lines right after it. i think your line of thought is in lock step with David's If Baltimore disappoints, we will see a disappointed doldrum for a while before it takes off again in a general sort of way. what may be happening is that many collectors all got the same feeling at the same time and unbeknownst to each other, all listed in Baltimore to sell. it could end that there is just so much available that individual collector dollars are stretched and difficult choices of what to buy/what not to buy hurt final auction prices and dealer sales.
i think i chose a good time for my first major. i'll be watching carefully and asking questions.
al h.
If a coin does not meet the reserve do they still make money off of the coin? For example if a dealer or collector has a $5,000 reserve on a coin but only goes as high as $4,000 what will the auction house make off of that coin, that the dealer is still stuck with.
Do you guys think that there will be a lot of coins that do not hit the reserve. Is 20% to high of a guess.
Are coins that do not hit the reserve, still calculated as being a sale when they finally come out with how much these auctions take in? I do not think they should since they actually did not sell.
Then out of the auctions that do realize from an internet bid, how many people would you guess will not pony up the money to cover their bids. Who will get screwed then, the auction house or the dealer?
Just a few questions from a newbie.
thanks
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heck, you'll have years ta think about it when the <S>crash<S> comes
Go BIG or GO HOME. ©Bill
Speaking solely about the Lincoln Proofs,I have said before "just wait until 2009 the prices realized for the top 10% coins will reach astronomical prices."
Registry 1909-1958 Proof Lincolns
I believe most of the big coins WILL sell.
As you all know, I put Legends money where my mouth is. I plan on being a major buyer BOTH at ALL the auctions and on the bourse floor. I need high end neat coins!
Also: The collector who sold us the East Coast collection didn't need to. We bugged him to sell it. And very few coins from the set will be available fro sale (most have been placed already). I guess my version of demand and market stregnth differs from most people on these boards.
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Laura,
If I've told you once, I've told you a million times: you need to be careful and exact about what you say around here. The good folks of this forum occupy a very broad spectrum of numismatic industrial knowledge, and a goodly number of them simply will NOT really understand what you mean.
The phrase "that deserves it" is a good starting point for much greater clarification. Are they condition rarities? Keys? Hot series? Perhaps some combo thereof, or perhaps of something else altogether...
The next time I see you, remind me to give you the EVIL EYE.
EVP
PS I did not forget to put in a smiley!
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
<< <i>. We bugged him to sell it. And very few coins from the set will be available fro sale (most have been placed already). >>
If that is so, then that is $5,000,000, PLUS your profit, that has been removed from the liquidity available for those auctions.
As I said before, I believe the top 15% of those auction coins will do VERY well. Yet, that bottom 40% may have a very difficult time.
As you all know, I put Legends money where my mouth is. I plan on being a major buyer BOTH at ALL the auctions and on the bourse floor. I need high end neat coins!
Legend is not "the" market. I doubt I am going out on a limb when I say people who pony up $25k+ for one coin don't worry about the things [like under/unemployment] the average collector does.
Legend caters to a very specialized niche. Do you think Harry Winston sells fewer Rolexs when times are :tough:? By the same token [no not that type of token] I seriously doubt Legend's market space will be affected too much.
Owners of the generic, obscure, high grade/high pop, lacking eye appeal, etc. are the ones who will see no appreciation or even depreciation and should be worried if they are stretched.
I look at it this way. WHat is already very expensive I cannot or don't want to afford, it will now just be even more untenable.
I had a very large inventory of "legendary" coins in 1990 when the market tanked. Trust me, the best coins are FAR from immune in downturns.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
It follows an uncontrolable addiction which few men can control,...... or even fully understand. You are no longer the master of your domain. You have my prayers and deepest sympathy.
signed: Fellow addict
<< <i>Frenzy? WHAT FRENZY? I don see no steenkeeng frenzy! What, where? Frenzy? frenzfrenzy y frenzy frenzy frenzy frenzy...no. where? Got any coins? Where? I need coins! Coinscoinscoins! Lemme at em! I need em. I want em. I'll pay ANYTHING? Where are the toned coins? I need COLOR! colorcolorcolor. and STRIKE. Forget the holder. Just send for prompt payment. NOW! quick.
Once again resides with Legend, the original purchaser "raw" at live Eliasberg auction. Laura and i "love" the same lady!
<< <i>As I said before, I believe the top 15% of those auction coins will do VERY well. Yet, that bottom 40% may have a very difficult time. >>
Umm....my comment to that is .......hasn't this been happening for a long time and also isn't that how the bottom 40% got to be called "bottom 40% percenters in the first place?
It seems that the cream of the crop always keep rising to the top whereas the bottom coins always seem to struggle?
Question......only when the market goes into a real frenzy does the rising tide lift all "boats" including the "bottom fishing trawlers?"
What we have is clearly a selectively hot market for the most highly demanded coins.
Same-o Same-o........Just like when they CHANGED the grading standards but DENIED it.
"Oh LOOKIE......my MS65 is going .... UP ! The one I bought RAW in 1980! I think I'll send it IN !! ....eek, WHAT????"
Mr. Eureka knows of which he speaks.
Only now, it's the coins that "deserve" to rise in value. Does mine? Huh, does it, does it?
Maybe I should dump my undeserving slabbed F-XF early type.
I'm certain that most dealers will come back and say it was a great show. They always do. They will point to certain sky high prices as evidence. It will be almost impossible to know much as collectors.
Second, I believe that we will always see most action in the top 10% of coins for any date, for date collected series, or for any type, for type collected series. For investment those are the ones to focus on. Lesser graded coins are great for collectors because the prices are lower, but aren't going to be rare enough for investment coins. And, any investment coin purchased needs to have great eye appeal. Reputable dealers have been saying that for a long time.
Frankly, I see strength in most of the top 10% for most series. I have been collecting certified coins for only four years now. Most of the prices have gone up well beyond what I paid. The series I have followed are Liberty Nickels, Walkers, proof Mercs, Washington quarters, Mint state IKEs, proof Franklins, 19th century type, and 20th century type. Only proof Franklins have declined.
So, if you want investment coins stick to the top 10% for date or type. If you want lower graded coins as collector coins, that's great, but don't expect to make money. Look, my son builds and flys model rockets. There are fun, we don't expect to resell them for a profit. They are a hobby, and so are lower graded coins.
Finally, Mr Eureka is very correct. Investment grade coins will go down as well as up. Just like the stock market, returns will be volatile. Make sure you diversify your investments.
Greg