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How fleeting is football glory??
Fuzz
Posts: 903
This board does seemed to be composed of a group of folks that really like numbers. So here are a few to ponder.
I looked at the major FB sets (no regionals or inserts) from the 55 Topps AA through 72 Topps and included the Fleer and Philly issues as well. What I looked at was simply, if the registery awards were today, what percentage of folks would keep there title as tops set from last year?
26 sets total:
9 of the 2002 winners are still leading:
9 sets with 2002 winners now have new leaders:
7 sets will have first time winners in 2003:
and one set (1970 Topps) currently has no one qualified for the award.
So after months and even years of sweat and turmoil: chasing those last cards down and over paying for at least some of what you need all in order to win ............. you have a coin toss (9 out of 18) chance of staying on top. Guess it shows that it might pay to come late to the party after all. Overall, 16 of the 25 qualifying sets will have first time winners. Looks like the hard part of this may be the repeat. I honestly thought that the momentum of winning last year and starting this year with a lead would have been a bigger obsticle to over come.
Fuzz
I looked at the major FB sets (no regionals or inserts) from the 55 Topps AA through 72 Topps and included the Fleer and Philly issues as well. What I looked at was simply, if the registery awards were today, what percentage of folks would keep there title as tops set from last year?
26 sets total:
9 of the 2002 winners are still leading:
9 sets with 2002 winners now have new leaders:
7 sets will have first time winners in 2003:
and one set (1970 Topps) currently has no one qualified for the award.
So after months and even years of sweat and turmoil: chasing those last cards down and over paying for at least some of what you need all in order to win ............. you have a coin toss (9 out of 18) chance of staying on top. Guess it shows that it might pay to come late to the party after all. Overall, 16 of the 25 qualifying sets will have first time winners. Looks like the hard part of this may be the repeat. I honestly thought that the momentum of winning last year and starting this year with a lead would have been a bigger obsticle to over come.
Fuzz
Wanted: Bell Brands FB and BB, Chiefs regionals especially those ugly milk cards, Coke caps, Topps and Fleer inserts and test issues from the 60's. 1981 FB Rack pack w/ Jan Stenerud on top.
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Comments
Joe
Great analysis, but you should have gone back another 11 sets to the 1935 National Chicle. Of those 11 sets, 7 of the 9 leaders remain in the lead and the other 2 would have first time winners (1951 Topps Magic and 1952 Bowman Small). I think that the shifting in the '55 - '70 leaders is because of the greater availability of high-grade raw -- easy to find a nice stack (or even cello packs) of '66 Topps FB than '53 Bowman for instance. Kind of obvious, but the tougher the set the easier to keep a lead - wonder how it correlates with the earlier thread on the toughest FB sets?
Kevin
And who is the Skins Quarterback?
I think the Braves have a good chance.
Paul
Dave - There appears to be a bit of sandbagging going on,
or else the people I've noticed winning many football auctions I've bid on,
just aren't interested in registering their cards on the PSA Set Registry.
Kevin - No doubt the 1950's are tougher than the 1960's,
still some 1960's cards are commanding insane prices.
Unlike 1960's Baseball, where you just wait for the card to come up for auction again,
with Football, you never know if you'll ever again see the card in that grade.
As for SKINSFAN - The Redskin's only chance is if Sonny Jurgensen un-retires and suits up this year ...
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"
Joe, you observation is correct that BB is more stable. I looked at the list (major sets Topps/Fleer 55-72) and found only 6 of the 22 sets have changed leaders. I believe that 3 of the 6 sets have been sold resulting a new leader. I forgot to mention that 2 of the FB sets have sold.
Kevin, I stay away from those sets at this point. They were well before my time and my checking account likes it better if I am not going head to head against you (or Marshall, etc.). I must not travel enough because nice stacks of 60's FB, while maybe easier than 50's, don't come my way all too often. I am not sure if they are really that much harder or if they have a more mature collectors base ( I don't mean older guys but people who have collected the sets for more years than the 60's collectors have worked on theirs. I am also in agreement with Art about the 66 FB. My source has also dried up a bit and have been working harder lately to find things.
Wolf, Now I know I haven't updated for a while but I haven't added too much and I know that you haven't been butting heads with me. I have been off spending most of my time on other hobbies at this point. But there are people who do not participate and will not. Others will wait till the end of October. Last year in 66T BB, the lead changes hands a few times in the last three days. Same with us on 64T FB. It only counts once a year, so until then then data is heavily skewed.
Fuzz
Thanks, I'm beginning to feel like a California raisin!
Kevin
Lots of people in the FB arena right now are into the player/HOF/Team issues and not the whole sets.
Jeremy