Relative toughness of early football sets

AlanAllen

Using the method described in this thread, I tried to objectively determine the relative toughness of all mainstream football sets from 1948-1967. Once I got to 1961 though, it was becoming clear that the results were skewed by lack of submissions. For example, 1967 Philadelphia had more cards with zero examples graded 8+ than every set in the 40's and 50's combined, but most of those have never had a single example submitted.

That said, I think the stats from 1948-1960 are pretty reliable. With the usual caveats about the limitations of this method, this study produced some interesting results. I broke it down to two categories: Bowman-era and early Topps. I also have Fleer-era and Philadelphia-era stats, but as I mentioned I don't think they are reliable. Anyhoo, here are the numbers:

Set_______________Pop 8+ <=5__Pop 8+ = 0__Avg. 8+/card__% Graded 8+__Ranking
1948 Bowman______37__________1__________6.73________33.7%________3
1948 Leaf _________84__________18_________2.89________12.8%________1
1949 Leaf _________46__________12_________2.16________13.2%________2
1950 Bowman______0___________0__________22.15_______46.2%________9(t)
1951 Bowman______2___________0__________15.74_______42.4%________8
1952 Bowman Large_16__________0__________10.51_______28.1%________6
1952 Bowman Small _51__________0__________7.25________37.3%________4
1953 Bowman______18__________0__________9.40________30.8%________5
1954 Bowman______0___________0__________21.22_______53.4%________9(t)
1955 Bowman______22__________0__________14.28_______44.4%________7

This is pretty much what I expected, the two Leaf sets are the toughest, followed by '48 Bowman and '52 Bowman Small. I'm surprised at how easy '50 Bowman was.

Set_______________Pop 8+ <=5__Pop 8+ = 0__Avg. 8+/card__% Graded 8+__Ranking
1955 Topps AA______0__________0________39.46__________39.0%_______5(t)
1956 Topps________2__________0________30.68__________54.5%_______5(t)
1957 Topps________8__________0________26.50__________43.7%_______3
1958 Topps________59_________1________8.93___________32.4%_______1
1959 Topps________2__________0________23.68__________58.4%_______4
1960 Topps________13_________0________15.48__________45.7%_______2

This one truly shocked me; by every measure, 1958 Topps was the hardest of the bunch. Clearly here, the numbers don't tell the whole story, as '55 came in dead last, but is extremely popular and therefore tough to build. Interesting results nonetheless.

I mostly did this stuff for my own twisted amusement, so take it for what it's worth.

Joe

thefootballcardstore

Pretty Cool Joe - thanks for the post!
Would have thought 52 Small has 2 or 3 and on the tops side, everyone says how tough the 55AA is, but ranks 5th.

Nice stats ~

Jeremy

Wayne8348

Joe,

I think that is a pretty telling graph you put together. I worked on the 58 topps football for a while and many of the cards in psa 8 just aren't out there. The only thing that this formula doesn't take into account is how many people are actively pursuing the set. For instance, if a set averages a pop 10 for most cards and 25 people are actively trying to compete the set then this set would be far more difficult than one with an average of 5 cards in pop 8 with 2 people working on the set. I wonder if there is anyway to account for the number of set builders above a certain percent competion in the formula?

Wayne

AlanAllen

Exactly right Wayne; I'm open to suggestions on that I was considering adding a metric for number of registered sets over 50% or something like that.

Joe

72leadfoot

AllanAllen

Nice job on the work you did. I've been telling people for 2 years that the 58's are one of the tuffest sets to build. I've got the current number 1 set on Registry. Also, who ever put the weighted weight for this set is smoking crack. It's one if the worst I've ever seen.

Wayne
I'd be interested in buying some of your 58's.

______________________________________________

Buying 1956, 57, 58 and 1962 FB PSA 7-9
paulorruth@msn.com

ironranger

72leadfoot,

I believe that Wayne sold his '58's on ebay through Dan Markel. I am sure that you bid on more than a few of them. If I recall correctly, Wayne purchased most of his cards from DSL and kept them for only a month or two.

Is that correct Wayne? I was curious as to why you decided against building the set.

72leadfoot

ironranger

If that's the case than I got most of the ones I wanted.

I remember when wayne email me and said he was going to light me up with his sniper bids, I thought it was pretty funny, I'd get a email like 2 hours before the auction closed saying get ready it's coming.

Paul
--------------------------------

Buying 1956, 57, 58, and 62 FB PSA 7-9
paulorruth@msn.com

SKINSFAN

bottom line it still comes down to supply and demand. 55 aa,s may be much easier pop count wise but there a 10x or more sets then 58.counting non reg to date. many sleeper aa sets out there..also i think there is much more nice raw cards 56/57/58 and 59 for sure then 55 aa,s.% wise i think much more left to grade from the late 50,s years then 55 aa,s or the leaf issues for sure.but as long as the demand holds and i do not see it changing at all 55 topps will be king of football.not knocking 58,s.i really like the set. i think it might be may next set. a little comp for you leedfoot

Wayne8348

Ironranger,

I did sell my cards a few months ago through Dan Markel and most of them were purchased through DSL late last year. I wanted to work on a vintage football set so I bought a number of cards all at once. I decided against completing the set mainly because I felt that the cards just weren't that attractive to look at. I just didn't like them. My favorite set is the 1955 topps aa but I'm not ready to let go of that much $$$ to build that set right now. I'm pretty sure that Paul did buy several of my cards when Dan auctioned them.

Paul,

I assume that's a joke about me emailing you to "light you up" with my snipes. I definitely wish you the best on competing your set. It is one tough set in psa 8.

wayne

Fabfrank

Joe- Great analysis. I'm in your camp regarding the undervalued/underappreciated nature of vintage football. I believe there is more raw out there (especially 60's material) that just haven't been submitted yet.
I hate to admit it but when it comes to graded cards, the baseball guys are the ones on the leading edge. With so many more baseball collectors than football collectors, I feel more cards get submitted thus there are greater pops. Football will catch up but it's going to take time.

Davalillo

Joe,

Good work--I agree completely. Early Leaf sets in psa 8 are and will continue to be most difficult. 1948 Bowman and 1952 Bowman Small next most difficult followed by 1952 Bowman Large and 1953 Bowman.

1950 Bowman, 1951 Bowman, 1954 Bowman and 1955 Topps All America relatively easy by comparison.

Also believe that 1957 Topps and 1958 Topps more difficult than 1955 Topps to put together in psa 8. 1959 is a snap and after that are only beginning to see the submissions--1962 could be tough because of black borders and 1965 Tall Boys due to condition but putting rest of them together in psa 8 should not represent too much of a challenge.

Davalillo

72leadfoot

Wayne

There was some guy about 3-6 months ago that was giving me some pretty good comp on the 58's for awhile and I thought it was you. He email me several times, telling me to get ready cuz his snipes where coming. To me it's no big deal, I thought it was pretty funny.

Skinsfan

You can bring it anytime.

------------------------------------------

Buying 1956, 57, 58 and 62 FB PSA 7-9

Wayne8348

Skinsfan,

It wasn't me but that is funny. I had a guy email me one time telling me to quit bidding against him - I was costing him money. I emailed him back and told him that he cost me a card I wanted. Good luck with your set.

Wayne