Condition rarity premium % classic/modern

DHeath

It's a casually stated many time on this board that modern condition rarities trade at crazy multiples compared to classic condition rarities, sometimes 10x-100x premiums for a single gradepoint. Using the CU price guide as a neutral reference, I decided to compare Franklins to Peace dollars (both are short ). In this comparison, I'm contrasting MS64 and the highest price quoted in the guide for every coin in the series. I chose MS64 because I believe it represents an average coin, and the highest price quoted to highlight the premium for condition rarity. The data looks as follows -

Franklins MS64 FBL - complete set - $8255
Franklins best complete set FBL - $191280

A 23x premium for the finest set available

Peace dollars MS64 - complete set - $13,142
Peace dollars best complete set - $352,850

A 27x premium for the finest set available

The Franklin set included a $15,000 MS67 coin that was not priced in MS66, and a $50,000 condition rarity. My assumption is that the premium charged for condition rarity is pretty homogenous throughout all series, and is not merely a modern coin phenomenon. Any thoughts?

BTW - what is the single largest % multiple in the CU price guide that any of you are aware for a single grade point, classic or modern. Does the multiple ever approach 50x?

Nysoto

There are so few bust coins over MS64 that any price guide attempt at pricing these would be only hypothetical.

Another way of looking at this is with coins in VF20 compared to MS60 coins. With the series I collect:

Flowing Hair halves VF $2400 MS60 $30,000 13x
Draped Bust, HE halves VF $400 MS60 $4,500 11x
Capped bust, common date VF $60 MS60 $450 8x
Franklins?
Kennedys?

Does not really prove anything other than I need a substantial raise to collect nice Flowing Hair halves.

Dog97

Well the "x" multiple amount is smaller but the $ amount is approx $100,000 increase in each grade past ms64 for the 84-S & 95-O Morgan.
I can't even think of a Modern PopTop that is equal to the price for 1 bump from these Morgans.
I'm not aware of any Modern worth ½ million x face like these 2 Morgans are.
Hope that made sense.

eagle7

There is no doubt that condition rarities in all coins now trade at large premiums and that is because of the two major grading services and the impact they have had on the coin market. However it may be argued that the surviving pool of coins available which will make an ms67 in the Franklin series as opposed to the surviving pool of coins in the state quarter series which may make 69 or 70 leads me to believe that a low pop coin in the Franklins would be a better "buy" simply because the odds of a significant number of coins suddenly making ms67 are miniscule compared to the odds of any state quarter making large numbers of 69 or 70 grades. There is such a huge quantity of coins available in the state quarter series to send in to the grading services. Now if I was a collector and didnt care about the money and only wanted the best, I would buy the best. But if I wanted a sure return ten years in the future, I personally would find the Franklin condition rarity a better bet for the future. Other factors do come into play here such as demand, etc etc. I think the current modern rage is good for the coin hobby because as new collectors become interested in coins such as the state quarters, a good many of them will graduate to other series as well. JMHO.

GDJMSP

Don if I didn't know better I'd swear you have been reading some my old posts