I'm A Heritage Auction LOSER

MoneyLA · May 27, 2003 5:07PM

Okay, whoever you are, it's YOUR COIN. I've been outbid for the last time on lot 6115 in the Long Beach Sale...

"1938 25C PR67 PCGS. Dazzling reflectivity is further enhanced by thin crescents of coppery-gold and sky-blue peripheral color. A prettier 1938 Quarter could hardly be imagined."

It would have been pretty in my set but you surpassed my top bid of $1,051 and frankly, the next bid of $1,100 plus buyer's premium is too much for me to spend on something that will be locked away in a bank safety deposit box and visited maybe three or four times a year.

It's yours. Enjoy.

I'll wait for another. Unless of course you want to admit that you were just joking, plan to rescind your bids, and let me take the coin home at a more realistic price, leaving some money left over for groceries, a tank of gas, maybe a movie and dinner....

cheers, alan mendelson

michael · May 27, 2003 5:16PM

i am sorry you did not get that coin

but i can tell you that not to worry i know someone that has a pcgs proof 67 quarter 1937 that looks better then this 1938 and it is part of an original proof set from the same year and has never been dipped or cleaned and is totally original

in other words there are better coins out there for you and if it is meant to be this 1938 quarter will wind up coming to you when you least expect it or you will see another for sale within a short time frame that is less expensive and actually a better looking coin!

i have seen this phenomon many many times if you are out looking then i can almost guarantee you the right coin will come to you in the up and coming short term that is better looks wise and less money!

sincerely michael

cosmicdebris · May 27, 2003 7:27PM

Alan I feel your pain. I know what it's like to loose a coin, you wait weeks for the auction to come up, you wait hours for them to get to your lot, and in a matter of seconds it all comes crashing down.

Better luck on the next one.

solid · May 27, 2003 11:25PM

I believe Michael is right! Patience is a virtue that usually does pay off.

How many times have we all bought THE coin, only to see THE coin's
brother sell a short time later for less, or for THE coin's BIG BAD BROTHER
to come along in the next sale?!!!

Ken

wondercoin · May 27, 2003 11:49PM

Alan: I do not lot view the Heritage coins until later this morning. So, you may be absolutely right (or wrong for that matter) that the current price on this particular lot is overpriced. But, I wanted to mention one thing to you. A PR68 of this date sold in Baltimore in the B&M sale for around $9,000 as I recall. And, while a typical PR67 might make sense at no more than $750 and certainly under $1,000, bear in mind that there is a huge difference between $1000 and $9,000. IMHO, the difference encompasses wonderful quality PR67 coins and (if one is ever graded) lower quality PR68 coins. And, what would you rather have - a super PQ PR67 at $2,000 or a terrible PR68 at $6,000? Think about it and, again, my comment is not directed specifically at the Heritage coin, as I have not even seen it.

Wondercoin

LincolnCentMan · May 28, 2003 12:02AM

...at least that's $1100 you can spend elsewhere.

I've been bummed pretty often. There's a 16-S cent in PCGS 65BN that I want. The guy wants $700 for it. It's worth about $500 to me, and that's about $100 more than I think it's worth. Pop three coin in that grade. It may take a while, but I'll either find one of the other two, or the guy will eventually give up and lower it to a more realistic price. In the mean time... I have that money availible for other purchases.... and I have lots of wants.

David

IrishMike · May 28, 2003 12:26AM

I agree with Mitch, I haven't seen the coin either. If it looks like I think it does then I'd go higher. I paid $750 for my rainbowed toned 38 in a PF67 NGC holder. Another one like this one might not come along anytime soon and if I didn't already own one that I like I'd still be bidding on this one.

coinguy1 · May 28, 2003 12:34AM

I have seen the coin and I LIKE it, a lot! But, not at the current bidding level.

Someone will probably take a shot and bid big PQ money (maybe they already have) and try it for a PR68.

MoneyLA · May 28, 2003 4:04AM

Mark, thanks for your comment about the quality and the price level.

Mitch, you said "And, what would you rather have - a super PQ PR67 at $2,000 or a terrible PR68 at $6,000?" My answer is, I'd like to have a super PQ pr67 at ONE thousand and NOT two thousand, and I would never pay six thousand dollars for a pr68. Sorry, but this is not where I want to spend my discretionary income -- even though my discretionary income is a substantial amount. Im starting to think that coins, for a hobby, is now overpriced. There can be more satisfaction in other areas at lower costs. cheers, alan mendelson

jonesy · May 28, 2003 6:27AM

Wish me Luck on the two Buffalo's I'm bidding on!

lablover · May 28, 2003 10:30AM

Alan:
I feel your pain. I was watching a few "Ungraded Proof Sets". After researching prior auction prices I felt like I could compete. So, I was waiting to bid on a nice 1938 set...than bam, it went right through the roof. Burst my bubble. However, there will be another later. Reminds me of a very nice 1878-CC Morgan I wanted. Too pricey however so I passed. Guess what...found another a year later I liked just as much. And, best of all it was less than half the price of the first.
Hang in there. You'll get one at YOUR PRICE.

tporreca · May 31, 2003 9:01AM

Same thing just happened to me. Must be registry fever, my Heritage 1867 DDO 2 Cent went for $2700, a thousand more than my high bid which I thought was a good bid. Unfortunatly, this was a 1/1 coin, so I won't get another chance any time soon.

wondercoin · June 1, 2003 10:13AM

I was in the auction room when the coin sold. The bidding came down to a dealer (who lost) and the winner who I did not know. They battled it out from around $1300 to where the coin closed at $2300 with commish. No doubt a record price for a 1938 quarter in PCGS-PR67 and one I was not personally interested in paying. But, as I mentioned before, the jump to PR68 is to around a $9000+ coin, so this is certainly an alternative. It also supports the notion of paying slightly more for nice coins in the first place where warranted. Obviously, the consignor of this coin did quite well with his interesting coin.

Wondercoin

Strat · June 1, 2003 1:23PM

Sorry Alan, that was a tremendous coin, a rainbow toned beauty that would've looked great in your set. Would've looked great in my set too, but somebody wanted it more. I was the underbidder on the coin, and held the bid at $1900. The other guy hesitated for a moment, which gave me just enough time to decide I didn't want to pay $2100 plus juice for the coin. He then bid $2000, and the prize was his. Obviously, I believed in the coin, as it was the finest color proof I've seen of that date. Was it a shot 68??? It had the color and eye appeal to get that grade, but two short hairlines on the jaw probably will keep it out of a PCGS PR68 holder. So, looks like we'll both have to find another one!

MoneyLA · June 1, 2003 2:51PM

I just came back from a wonderful weekend getaway with my girlfriend and was SHOCKED to find that the coin sold for $2300. Yikes. With prices like this, I'm ready to SELL the coins in my rainbow registry set. Please IM me with inquiries, offers, etc. It's time to get out at the peak. Cheers, alan mendelson

IrishMike · June 1, 2003 8:41PM

Wow is all I can say, I figured that coin would bring a nice bid, it looked by the photos to be top notch. Oh well, I think in retrospect I got a bargain on this one.

Got this one from Mark at Pinnacle., NGC PF67

Alan, nothing wrong if you like this series to keep them in NGC slabs and put them, dare I say it in the CS Registry. I paid a third of what this coin went for.

MoneyLA · June 2, 2003 1:48AM

IrishMike, very nice coin and at one third the price of the Heritage auction price your purchase is justified. Now, if you can get it crossed you can turn a nifty profit.

Frankly, I doubt that the buyer of the Heritage Coin will be able to turn a profit on that coin for a long time. I think that in retrospect, the underbidder of the coin would not offer as much as he did the next time that coin comes up for sale. Frankly, I thought I was overpaying at $1,000. I think the heat of an auction environment pushed up the bids too much.

Im also beginning to think that the whole market right now might be a bit too frothy, and this concerns me, and makes me consider selling, moving to the sidelines, and coming back to play another day. Other thoughts?

cheers, alan mendelson

IrishMike · June 2, 2003 2:26AM

Other thoughts, why yes surprisingly enough I do.

This coin illustrates to me why I collect nice coins regardless of the holder. The Heritage coin exhibits a lot more lustre than mine does, but there are no lines on mine. Is it worth 3X's mine, I dunno. Mark Feld has seen both coins, if he cares to comment I won't feel put-off a bit. I'd rather pay what I did for mine ($750) and have less risk of price depreciation than $2300 and watch the market crash. I wouldn't consider crossing it for one second, you are correct it probably would bring more if it did but at the same time I paid considerably less than someone did for the Heritage coin. Quite frankly I would rather pay less for a nice coin in an NGC holder than more for the same coin in a PCGS holder. As I mentioned, less downside risk and being an eclectic collector my discretionary income goes further toward purchasing other coins.

I have both PCGS and NGC coins in my registry set. Secondly I don't think I am qualified to tell the difference between a PCGS 67 and an NGC 67. This philosophy works for me, less investment, less downside risk, nice coins and some day the way the NGC Registry is growing prices might catch up. This would strictly be an unintended bonus for me. Lastly I like the scoring system better across the street and the fact that they have a proof quarter set for 36-42 seperately from the other proof quarter sets, which I think is a great idea.

BTW I was a big time collector of 36-42 proofs and sold all of them with the exception of the quarters. All of the coins in both PCGS and NGC holders sold anywhere from 50-150% of what I paid for them when I sold them in 2001.

My thoughts for whatever they might be worth.

coinguy1 · June 2, 2003 2:41AM

Mike,

It's obviously been some time since I saw your coin but, I'll say this - I think the one that just sold in auction had more flash, but that the color wasn't as pretty as yours. I grade both of them PR67 and I'd easily take yours over the other one, especially at the respective prices.

I often purchase coins from the perspective of a collector, as well as that of a dealer. I LOVE coins, especially colorfully toned, high quality examples. But, no matter how much I might like them, at a certain price level, I have to pass. I am constantly faced with that dilemma.

wondercoin · June 2, 2003 3:12AM

Understanding the Heritage coin is real simple the way I see it and has nothing to do with comparing it to an NGC coin (although comparing can be fun). Strat wanted the Heritage coin above $1300 and so did one other guy in the entire world. If either of them had car trouble that morning, the coin would have likely sold for roughly $1000 less than it did. Tomorrow a new guy may want it for $1000 more than the winning bidder paid, or $1000 less. This is the classic "auction game". It cuts both ways - I was lucky enough to buy a coin for a collector for roughly $20,000 under the max bid last week and nearly 2/3 less than what he was prepared to spend.

Wondercoin

MoneyLA · June 2, 2003 3:30AM

Mitch, your comments on auction pricing and outside factors such as "car trouble" mgnify the dangers of auction pricing. In fact, I believe that the Collectors Universe price/value system AVOIDS auctions because auction prices can be out of the ordinary or extraordinary -- in other words, they might not be real world pricing. Again, as nice as the Heritage coin is, I think the emotional price paid is not a real world price. And Im beginning to be convinced that a lot of today's prices are emotional -- whether caused by the Registry competition or other factors -- and they may be better avoided.

Mitch, care to move my rainbow set for me??

cheers, alan mendelson

IrishMike · June 2, 2003 3:32AM

Mitch, I think most of us understand that it only takes two bidders to run up the price on a coin. The question was asked of me if mine would cross and I answered it to the best of my knowledge. Crossing is a result of wanting to either place it in the CU Registry or hoping that by crossing from NGC to PCGS it would increase in value do to either the registry phenomenom or a perceived increase due to "the PCGS has to be tighter" thinking. One would have to ask the buyer and underbidder if they would have shelled out the same kind of money if it was in a NGC holder rather than PCGS and speculation is fun too.

wondercoin · June 2, 2003 3:58AM

"Mitch, care to move my rainbow set for me??"

Alan: Hey - interested in bringing your lovely girlfriend to Orange County next weekend for a brunch on me? I'd be happy to look at the set there. Or, I'll just PM you the next time I am coming into LA. In the meantime, enjoy the coins

Wondercoin

MoneyLA · June 2, 2003 8:38AM

Mitch IM me with a number. we happen to be going to costa mesa saturday. alan

Strat · June 2, 2003 9:09AM

As the underbidder, I'll reply to the holder question. If this 38 proof was in an NGC holder, then I wouldn't have bid as strongly for it. The reason is that there is still a market preference for PCGS coins, and while I believe this concept is gradually changing, it is still there, so I would've bid less, but would've still wanted this coin if it were NGC. In retrospect, if it were an NGC coin, then it would've likely been mine today. While I do have a PCGS registry set, my primary goal is to form the best set I possibly can, in terms of eye appeal and attractiveness. I chose PCGS because their coins tend to have better resale value, plus my set is nearly complete, so at this point, I would like to complete my goal. I suppose I'm not a typical registry set owner, as realistically I don't expect to be #1, but still want to participate. This brings about the question of, if this so, then what difference would it make if I included NGC coins in my set. The answer is that I have and do include NGC coins in my set, but cross them into PCGS holders to accomplish my initial goal. Why change when so close to completion? If I believe NGC would become the market leader in this series, and if their coins start bringing more, then from a financial perspective, it would be time to consider a change.

I also have another decision to make. The 1940 proof quarter has been a very tough coin for me to find, as I've scoured shows and auctions trying to find a quality one. I was the underbidder on the original beauty (PCGS PR67) in this past February's Goldberg Sale. When the bidding reached $1000 for that coin, I felt I was being run up on the coin, and put down my card, thinking that another one would surface sooner or later. This Long Beach show produced two opportunities, as I won the PCGS PR67 in the Heritage Sale for $100 over Bluesheet, and while it is only golden toned, I felt it was a good buy. My quandary now is that the floor also produced a gorgeous brilliant specimen in an NGC PR66 holder. While I prefer a toned coin, the NGC coin flat out has better eye appeal, so it just may be included in my set. I'm saying this to demonstrate that I appreciate quality coin in NGC holders, and to also demonstrate that I do not let emotions interfere with making a coin buying decision. While I can't speak for the guy who won the coin, once the price approached the limit I was willing to pay, I backed off. In order to determine a limit, I asked another dealer to view the coin. His response was that as a color coin, it was worth $1500, and we discussed owning the coin for mutal resale at that price. I told him that if the bidding went above that price, then I would be bidding as a collector, with the goal at that point being its addition to my set. Does this sound like a case where emotions ran away with my bidding? I took the time to evaluate the coin, got a second opinion, checked the online bidding to see where the coin would open, took notes on the prices realized of the preceding lots, and prepared for a battle. I lost the coin, but was satisfied with my effort. I would've been upset if I hadn't tried, you see.

So, while many think the money paid for color coins is absolute nuts in this market, my feeling is that a coin's price should be carefully considered, knowing full well that many of the best coins offered for sale are going to be in auctions, where the owners know strong competition exists. Would I be stuck in the coin if the other guy didn't bid one last time? Well, then I would've owned it forever, and was prepared to do so. Why not? It was one helluva coin. But I also knew where I could've recovered at least $1500 for the coin, so it helps immensely to know that going into the auction. Plus, I could've recovered additional cost by selling my current 38 model, which was bought reasonably awhile ago. So did emotions play a part in owning the 38 in question? Better ask the other guy.

MoneyLA · June 2, 2003 9:24AM

Strat wrote: "So did emotions play a part in owning the 38 in question? Better ask the other guy. "

Im curious to know if the high bidder has buyer's remorse today??

cheers, alan mendelson

Strat · June 2, 2003 9:36AM

<< <i>Im curious to know if the high bidder has buyer's remorse today?? >>

All I can say is that he took a rather lengthy pause before making his final bid. So, I almost had the coin at $1900 plus juice, but was certain he wouldn't have bid further.

MoneyLA · June 2, 2003 9:40AM

Call him up today... maybe he'll accept a couple of hundred dollar loss to pay for his mistake. cheers, alan

coinguy1 · June 2, 2003 10:07AM

Strat, I must say, you sound quite rational and sensible to me. Perhaps you're involved in the wrong hobby.

Strat · June 2, 2003 10:12AM

LOL, Mark thanks!

Sure Alan, why don't you give me his number? Jeers!

IrishMike · June 2, 2003 10:21AM

Hey great post Strat. The 41 has been the one that I've been looking to upgrade to 67, maybe I am getting too picky, but the rest of the ones in the series are really appealing and I can't find one to match them.

OT, 30 posts about proof quarters, has to be a record on the CU forum.

MoneyLA · June 2, 2003 10:34AM

guys, the proof-67s for the 1940s are not rare. unless you are talking about color examples??? If I recall, I paid in the range of about $200 each when I put together my #1 registry set a couple of years back. Am I now a Rip Van Winkle and slept through some great price explosion or are you referring to color-versions of these dates/grades?? cheers, alan mendelson

Strat · June 2, 2003 10:57AM

Alan, there has been a price explosion. Bluesheet for a 40 in PCGS PR67 is $395 and a 41 in the same grade is $410. Expect any toning to be drab brown at those levels, and I would say decent examples will cost you at least 20% more. My brilliant 40 NGC PF66 from Long Beach cost $350 and that was a dealer to dealer transaction. Dealers know that PF67's are needed for registry sets, so that's one reason they're not letting them go lightly. When I say that I scoured the floor the last two LB shows, this includes going through multiple double row stock boxes of coins, and not coming up with a single 1940 with eye appeal. Now I feel fortunate to have two!

I do think the 1940 has just been difficult for me, as it sounds like IrishMike is having difficulty finding a 41 to match the look of his set. So yes, I think we're talking about toned examples.

Strat · June 2, 2003 11:03AM

IrishMike,

Attached is a pic of my 41. Not to poke fun, but to say that the 40 PR67 I bid on in that aforementioned Goldberg Sale had the exact same look, same color and would've been a sweet match. C'est la vie!

Wonderful 38, by the way, I must congratulate you on that coin!

wondercoin · June 2, 2003 11:07AM

"His response was that as a color coin, it was worth $1500, and we discussed owning the coin for mutal resale at that price. I told him that if the bidding went above that price, then I would be bidding as a collector, with the goal at that point being its addition to my set."

Yep - this is the exact point EMOTIONS play into the situation. And, that isn't to say the emotions of a collector are not admirable.

Wondercoin

IrishMike · June 2, 2003 12:14PM

Strat, I've seen your 41 in a recent auction, no? Anyway that is a great coin.

Mike My42obv
42Rev

Strat · June 2, 2003 2:30PM

WC, I went out to dinner with my wife and told her about this thread. Her response was nearly the same as yours, that the bidding had to have some emotions involved. While I supported the reasoning behind my bidding, the desire to possess this coin resulted in my willingness to bid $400 higher, so there's a number to quantify Alan's contention of emotional value, how much more the color of the coin prompted a bidder to pay.

Irishmike, very nice 42, looks like you have a few of 'em up your sleeve! I aquired my 41 from a Kingswood Auction last May.

I'm A Heritage Auction LOSER

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