Are 1975 Topps PSA 9's dead?
Wabittwax
Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭
Here's a couple of my auctions that just closed. Check these out:
1975 Topps Larry Milbourne #512 PSA 8
1975 Topps John Hiller #415 PSA 9
I'm just wondering how a PSA 8 common with a Pop of 11 can close higher than a PSA 9 common with a Pop of 4? Are 8's in more demand than 9's?
I've noticed it across the board, my low pop 8's did as well or better than my low pop 9's. This one really hurts:
Ouch
I would be willing to give the buyer $50 to forget that auction ever happened.
Have you guys had the same experiences?
1975 Topps Larry Milbourne #512 PSA 8
1975 Topps John Hiller #415 PSA 9
I'm just wondering how a PSA 8 common with a Pop of 11 can close higher than a PSA 9 common with a Pop of 4? Are 8's in more demand than 9's?
I've noticed it across the board, my low pop 8's did as well or better than my low pop 9's. This one really hurts:
Ouch
I would be willing to give the buyer $50 to forget that auction ever happened.
Have you guys had the same experiences?
0
Comments
I think that with many vintage issues -- PSA 8's is where the game and the money is. A significant percentage (minority or majority?) of collectors are only looking to build the set in straight PSA 8. Though there are many that are looking for PSA 9's or better -- but not enough to compete with the PSA 8 collectors.
A good example is 1957 Topps. There are numerous examples where a PSA 8 common sells on Ebay for more money than a PSA 10 common. That should tell you something about the state of the market, and the impression of many collectors.
The '75 PSA 9's have definitely taken a dive. They were real strong over a year ago. I sold my partial set about 8 months ago and did very good overall, but I was sorry that I didn't sell it earlier in the year. But looking back, I'm grateful that I sold it when I did, or I'd be taking a bath in those cards right now.
If you want to talk about stinkers, look at the '77 market. I have a bunch of 8's at below grading cost ($4.45 opening bid) and haven't gotten a single bid on any of them since I listed them 4 days ago. These are actually re-lists from last week and only 1 out of 20 sold for $7.45 (the remaining 19 went unsold). I guess that's great news for people who wish to complete that set.
For some reason '76's are doing fine.
You have four sets that are essentially complete - all 98% or higher. There are two other sets above 90%. The top nine sets on the registry are all above 75% and looking at the GPAs should give a pretty good indicator as to who's actively pursuing 9s and who's happy with 8s. Of those 9 sets, you have four of them with a GPA of 8.40 or higher. Pretty safe to assume these guys are interested in 9s - and because their completion is so high they have A LOT of 9s. You have three sets that have a GPA of between 8.00 and 8.10. Pretty safe to assmume these guys are OK with 8s - and given the high completion you can infer that these guys are either not terribly interested in 9s or will upgrade to 9s later on. Then there's two sort of sitting on the fence with a GPA of 8.12. One has a completion is only 77% so he still has a ways to go where he can decide on accumulating more 9s. The other is one card short of completion so his situation is decidedly different.
So among the 75T registry participants, your market for 9s may be a bit limited. I even hear one of them has even stooped to the point of building a 72 set, but that's a story for another time. So after that, you're sort of left to depending on the "niche collectors" - the people who collect a specific player or team or League Leaders or Team cards or whatever. So unless you have a card that's a lower population - and people are paying attention - and have money - and several other things, then you may not get what you think it should.
Anyway. . .for 75T, it's not just the 9s that are down. Since late last summer, the market for PSA8s has been in the tank as well.
Mike
Hiller: 17 8s, 4 9s
The Milbourne is just a tougher card all around, and one that most everyone is missing. Mike's right, most people would rather have an 8 of a tough card than a 9 of a somewhat easier card, and with the popularity of 75s, a pop 11 is still kind of tough. Now if there were a pair of auctions for the same player and the 8 went for more than the 9, then that would be weird.
I've added my last 7s to my set and will now be focusing exclusively on 8s, though with the large pops on some cards, certain 9s can be had for about $10, which make them attractive. I'm not at the point yet of spending $15-$25 on the common 9s I might need just for the sake of having 9s. But I won't spend $31 on an 8 of a common player, either.
2005 Origins Old Judge Brown #/20 and Black 1/1s, 2000 Ultimate Victory Gold #/25
2004 UD Legends Bake McBride autos & parallels, and 1974 Topps #601 PSA 9
Rare Grady Sizemore parallels, printing plates, autographs
Nothing on ebay
This quote is probably the #1 reason why certain cards go for less than they should. I used to not bid on certain items because I didn't think I would have a shot at winning. The auction would close and I'd say " I would have paid that price or higher". I now have two prices in mind when I bid. My low ball price and my top price.
PSA 8 Common
I've done enough of those with 1975's that I can live with a loss once in a while.
Sol> When I submit cards for my set, that tends to be exactly the way I see it. The problem comes in when say for 75T dealers are asking for $2-$3 per for raw stuff.
Mike
I totally agree. The problem is when PSA 8s of late 1960s - 1970s commons bring in $4 each, if they get bids at all, and PSA 9s are lucky to fetch $10. Timing on eBay is everything, and the buying and selling of sportscards on eBay, and most other venues, is hardly an efficient market.
The PSA 10 1972 L.C. Greenwood that sold for $154 in the Mile High auction is a good example. If someone showed up at my house with the card, I would probably give them at least $200 cash. But because I didn't want to register for the auction and monitor the bidding, I passed. We tend to post the large sales on eBay on this board, but rarely post great deals that were had on eBay (except for that 1979 Ryan/Johnson PSA 10 debacle . . . sorry to bring that one up again, Sol).
POTD = 09/03/2003
dgf
Taz
The whole thing almost becomes a catch 22. I think if someone's selling raw commons, they should be selling them at basically raw prices. If they want to spend the $$ to get them graded, then deal with the "token 7s" and "surface wrinkle 6s" and all the other BS that goes with grading.
On the flip side, as a seller, if I had a box of 5000 '75 Topps cards, I'd have no interest in having someone go through the box card by card, examine each corner under a loop, judge centering, etc. and end up spending hours of time and touching (possibly damaging) all the cards for them to pull 50 total cards they deem perfect, and worth spending $1 on. But, of course, that's why I send the cards in to get graded, but back to the first point - I can't really justify being dissappointed with a '70s common selling for $25, low POP or no. Look, even that Ryan/Johnson, for all the problems with it being mislisted and all - I made money at $10! Not what I wanted/expected, and I certainly wouldn't have sold it for such, but it didn't hurt because I didn't buy it for $50....
Sol...you make some very good points.
In the past week Ive see a "lot" of 1978 PSA 8's go for approx $2.00 per card. Heck..I picked up a 1979 PSA 9 for $4.35 the other day as well. Maybe the sheer size of some of these 70's sets are a factor for some of the lower prices. Collectors realize they have to buy low on a majority of the cards in order to complete a large 70's set in a fiscally responsible manner.
John
There exists an ebb and flow for every set on the registry.
All one has to do is to get a sense of the flow, and then buy low and sell high.
Not really very complicated ...
"How about a little fire Scarecrow ?"