Home PCGS Set Registry Forum

spenders vs registry quality?

What does it take to have a coin become very valuable (common coin from last 40 years)
- does it have to be top pop? top 300?

When submitting these "moderns" - is the goal to score a 'touchdown' once every 10 coins, 5 coins, 50 coins?

If you are doing this, do the 'touchdowns' need to be turned quickly before they get pulled back to only 1st downs, or even just short yardage.

What kind of values would you expect on a MS 68 8/0
penny
nickel
dime
quarter
half
dollar

Thanks, still trying to make my hobby become an income generatorimage

Comments

  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,974 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Sinin: Truly, "your mileage may vary". The first step is to have a sharp eye and an understanding for the series you are submitting. After a few "tests", you should know if being a submitter is for you. image

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • TypetoneTypetone Posts: 1,621 ✭✭
    Very certain that being a submitter is not for me. Hey, I love looking through hundreds of mint sets for IKES, finding maybe 3 - 5 to submitt, and getting back 4 64s and 1 65.image

    Greg
  • RELLARELLA Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    Just to stick with the tagline/metaphor theme...don't base your expectations about modern submissions on the posted stuff on these boards. The warning there should be "results not typical". There are no general rules to follow when it comes to pricing by pop. In the short set Lincoln Wheats (somewhat modern and I know that series) there are dates that are statistically tough but command less money compared to other similar pop report coins (usually) because the people who know the series realize that the coin is easy to make, so they buy and sell it at lower prices and the pop stays down because it is not pursued by these market makers. Even on eBay the prices generally follow this accepted rarity "correction" and not the pop reports. It took me a lot of convincing to finally agree that at least in this small category the market is more efficient than it seems it should be.

    Or you could think that it all makes sense...you just have to factor in all variables. Then you get something like this:

    If you want to know the price of an individual coin; first research sales data if not on that coin on "similar" coins popwise (make sure they exhibit similar trading ranges in other grades if you are using other dates to compare prices). Throw out any obviously abberant prices realized...create a time-based price trendline using a simple mathematical "best fit" equation if you can collect enough relevant data to support it...otherwise just take your best guess on the current price TODAY based on the history of prices realized. Plotting price and date on a X-Y graph and then eyeballing an estimated price is almost as good as using the best fit. Then go on these boards and start a post saying "I have coin X popY/0 what is it worth?" Average the results of all responses (board member responses from agreed upon subject matter experts of the series in question should count as multiple responses of the same answer)...write this number down. Once again throw out abberant responses (and any responses from potential buyers) before calculating. Now I'll skip over the obvious use of standard deviation formulae and give a real world rule-of-thumb (no math degree needed) process to use. Look at your data set...are the data points really really close to each other? Then write down 0.90. Are they really far apart (is the largest value at a multiple of the smallest or are there values both far under and far over the historic value)? You would probably want to write down 0.15-0.25 for this. For middle of the road results just guess an amount between 0-1 (0.0 being completely random and 1.0 being all data points are equal). Don't worry; after a few of these you'll be jotting that number down like a pro! Now for the final part...take the absolute value of the extrapolated historic price less the average board response price. Multiply this number by your 0.0-1.0 value. Take the resulting value and if the historic price is higher than the board response price subtract the result from the historic price...if the board response price is higher add the resulting value from the last step to the historic value. The resulting number is the value of the coin! Oh and just one more note...Heritage and Teletrade auction values should be automatically rejected as data points when using this value calculator. Another note...Yahoo! auction values should be automatically rejected...eBay auction values for auctions ending on holidays or late at night should be automatically rejected...Board member price quotes from members with usernames beginning with the letters "R" "w" or "d" should be automatically rejected. Formula not valid in all states. Please use formula on or before 6/13/03. For a complete listing of all formula rules and details please send a self-addressed stamped envelope to: Stupid PCGS Modern Coin Value Formula, P.O. Box 7070 Young America, MN 55397-7070.

    See how easy it all is? image

    RELLA
    Do not fall into the error of the artisan
    who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
    while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
    twenty times.
  • Rella, you forgot the correction factor for which phase the moon is currently in!

    Robert Getty - Lifetime project to complete the finest collection of 1872 dated coins.
  • RELLARELLA Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    Rob,

    That was the simplified version that I presented...please follow the mailing offer to receive a copy of the complete formula.

    How's the 1872 set coming along? I have some ground to cover first but I'm going to try to give you some competition by the time they introduce the 1872 year sets to the registry. It'll probably be the only pre-1934 year with two people really gunning for the top!

    RELLA
    Do not fall into the error of the artisan
    who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
    while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
    twenty times.
  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Rella,

    Do you mind if I just follow you around and use the same hand motions/facial expressions you do? image
  • foodudefoodude Posts: 3,572 ✭✭✭
    A ouji board helps too!
    Greg Allen Coins, LLC Show Schedule: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/573044/our-show-schedule-updated-10-2-16 Authorized dealer for NGC, PCGS, CAC, and QA. Member of PNG, RTT (Founding Platinum Member), FUN, MSNS, and NCBA (formerly ICTA); Life Member of ANA and CSNS. NCBA Board member. "GA3" on CCE.
  • RELLARELLA Posts: 961 ✭✭✭
    Dang, dpoole I'm not sure. What do they look like? I was just trying to emulate Andy last weekend...how did I do?

    Right now I'm thinking if a crack documentary team followed me around for a week and filmed me I would be horrified by the resulting tape. I'm probably prone to doing lotsa smarmy expressions like Clay on American Idol but I just have never realized it. I was never any good at that stoic expression stuff that is so popular in MN where I grew up...maybe I need to take another crack at adopting it. image

    RELLA
    Do not fall into the error of the artisan
    who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
    while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
    twenty times.
  • sinin1sinin1 Posts: 7,500
    Thanks alot RELLA - I will do correlation coeeficients to value coins in the future - and then regressions to see what grade is needed before submission.

    You might not believe this, but I went grocery shopping in Young America, MN today.

    After a good submission, I will post results here to see if anyone likes any enough to PM me a good offer.image
  • lavalava Posts: 3,286 ✭✭✭
    Good question, but keep in mind that it is relative to whether you are asking about old coins versus new coins. Many coins in the last 50 years were minted in such high numbers, and many still exist in very high grades in storage. Older coins, by contrast, are thought to pretty much have made their way into the hands of a third-party grader. Comparing pop reports bears this out. There is just a much larger quantity of unslabbed modern coins out there, so while a top 100 pop might feel good today, it might be top 200 one year from now. It is very much for this reason that I fail to understand the interest in modern coins.
    I brake for ear bars.
Sign In or Register to comment.