Early Jeff Proofs Gradeflation: It's raining 68s

RGL

Super grades continue to fly out of Newport Beach on some early Jeff proofs ... gives you pause. As a friend observed, none or only a few of these in a decade and bam, they can't get 'em out the doors fast enough in the past few days on both types of the '42s. A bit sobering, to my view. We all know how hard a 67 is on many of these early dates, but 68s at this pace? Pops are PR-68 from two months ago vs. today ...

1938 +6 to 8
1939 +1 to 6
1940 0 (no change -- now the only date without a PR-68)
1941 +2 to 3
1942 Ty. 1 +4 to 4
1942 Ty. 2 +4 to 7

Observations, Carl, Frank, Al, Barry, etc?

And, while we're at it -- in the wake of 1975 PR-69 DCAMs doubling overnight -- did anyone notice the 1973 PR-69 DCAM just jumped from 33 to 76? Anyone have one they want to sell? Cheap?

I asked homerunhall on the Q&A Forum if he could provide any insight on this trend...

David:

Super grades continue to fly out of Newport Beach on some early Jeff proofs in recent weeks/days, particularly the big hike in both types of the 1942 posted in the pop report this week. We all know how hard a 67 is on many of these early dates. What's up? Great raw coins off the market for some time? High-end 67 regrades or crackouts? Different graders/standards? The hard-core Jeff proof gang would appreciate your insight. Thanks, Randy

Edited to add Q&A Forum answer from homerunhall:

Randy...It's probably a case of big prices bringing out some coins and/or maybe somebody bumped into a big freash high quality deal with a few super-cherries in the deal. Prices for the ultra grades have become so juicy that it's really worth dealer's time to seek out high quality deals and really pay attention to some of these Post War issues. What usually happens is that you'll see a bunch of coins being made for a while as dealers focus on a highly profitable area swooping up the available coins. Then the supply will dry up and dealers will focus elsewhere and very few new coins will be made. It's all part of the cycle.

David

wondercoin

Like I said, my "gut" told me to avoid the Heritage sale 1942 PR68 last week at close to $5k, even though the previous asking prices were around $8k-$10k. Assuming the 1938-39 coins are worth $4k -$5k (and perhaps that is the high end now), the 1940-42 probably have some more correcting downward to do IMHO.

Wondercoin

michael

for me

with modern proof jeffs of the 38 to 42 era and the huge demand currently and those prices!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! W*O*W for proof 68 coins and possibly higher
what usually happens is that they are becoming really expensive coins in higher superb gem proof 68 grades and can be sold for huge amounts of $$$$$

and with thousands made
it is now worth searching for them and reexamining older holdered coins and basically submitting them/resubmitting the older graded coins looking for A 68 to maximise their values

i think you will see more
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as an off topic

i have found that complete proof sets 1936 and 1937 are much more uncommon in higher grades and for the best buys of this era are the fully original sets kept together since the time of issue and never broken up
and a plus would be gem and higher grades
another added bonus would be exceptionally eye appealling sets

those would be REALLY VERY uncommon sets like that and still great value buys! for the "right" set with the right look
***********************************************************************************
but back to the jeffs

also the pops are not small for these proof jeffs 1938 to 42 and likely some are getting well deserved upgrades! and with proof 68 coins worth 5k to 10k it seems that they are being hunted for those higher grade quality specimums that are out there but now ever so diligently hunted

as for 4k to 10k each in a pcgs proof 68 holder i can see there is really an incentive to do this

personally from my limited experience with these coins

i know they are out there as in 35 years of specializing in and studying proof coins of the 36 to 42 era i have seen many monster 38 to 42 jeff proofs but say 30 years ago 20 years ago even 15 years ago no one really cared but currently with the demand!!!! that has all changed
i am really sorry i did not put away those coins as even for the best of the best they were really reasonablely priced ! 15 20 25 years ago

sincerely michael

CarlWohlforth

I don't know. Maybe HRH is right. It sounds reasonable.

I haven't seen any PR 68s. I have no opinion on whether fresh coins are making the grade or if standards are changing.

I have seen a bunch of 67s. They all seem accurately graded to me. I haven't had one I felt should upgrade or downgrade.

It seems there is new interest in proof Jeffersons (finally!!!).

Rick Tomaska has promoted deep cameo proof coins from the 50s for a long time. Highest grade DCAM Jeffs from the 50s have brought thousands each for many, many years. It has been worth looking for and submitting candidates for many years. However I don't think there was much interest in the earlier brilliant proofs until now. So all this rambling makes me think HRH is right.

BNE

I am sorry. I don't buy HRH's explanation for a second. These early Jefferson proofs have always been exceptionally valuable in PR68. The fact that none existed for many of the issues for a dozen years should have given someone a clue that if they made the first one, they would be rolling in dough. There is no new "treasure trove." Over the last few months, sometimes these coins are made one at a time; sometimes (like yesterday) THREE NEW 1938 PR68s (an increase in the pops of over 50%) are made in a single shot. These "amazing" coins were never even CERTIFIED before? No one thought that slabbing them was smart -- if for no other reason, than to preserve them? Nope, registry participants have been played by PCGS, and PCGS' need for more $ubmi$$ion$ has led them to loosen up.

"New interest" is not bringing out these coins. There is not a huge demand for them right now, and prices are not noticeably on the increase. The truth is that PCGS got tired of hearing dealers bellyache about the tight standards and have now loosened them to be more in line with NGC (or lower) -- at least for these issues. A policy decision was made to "allow" more 68s. It is now the collector's turn to get screwed.

This is extremely disturbing to me and has really put me off of the registry (as you know, Randy). Your hesitation to buy the '42 was wise, Wondercoin, and I think Carl made a very canny move to sell when he did. These evolving standards and the current spate of grade inflation has impacted the value of coins held by registry members, and I think I have learned an important lesson. I will certainly view their "product" with much greater skepticism than before and will think twice now before purchasing coins PCGS has slabbed.

Sorry if this sounds peevish, but the registry is important to a lot of people. And if 67s become 68s overnight, the true "condition rarities" are swallowed up in the noise.

Thanks for following up with David, Randy. But I ain't buying it.

pontiacinf

thanks to BNE for saying what i couldnt put into words

wondercoin

"Your hesitation to buy the '42 was wise, Wondercoin"

BNE: Of course, I had no clue that the pop 2 would become pop 4 the next week. But, what I did know is this - I'd personally much prefer a first year issue 1938 nickel in PR68 (or even a 1939 example) any day of the week to a 1942 example and since I had a history of buying one or two of the 1938 (and 1939) examples for a fraction of the prior asking price for the 1942, it made no sense to me. Even at less than $5000, the 38-39 examples were where I wanted to place my capital, rather than in a 1942 example. So, the 1942 coin found its level in the St Louis sale for a pop 2 coin. No doubt, it will possibly find a different level as a pop 4 coin. Meanwhile, my personal "thirst" for another 1938 or 1939 example has only gotten stronger as I welcome the opportunity to possibly pluck off an example at a discount now that the "fear factor" has set in.

REMEMBER, THE 1936 WALKER IN PCGS-PR67 HAS SEEN 15 GRADED ALREADY (WITH ONE HIGHER) AND JUST TRY TO BUY A NICE EXAMPLE OF THAT COIN FOR UNDER $20,000. I can live with the 1938 Jefferson in PCGS-PR68 "exploding" to a "pop 8" and possibly correcting down to $3,000. Between the undergrade Walker I mentioned at $20,000 and the "pop top" Jefferson at $3,000, which would you want to own?

Wondercoin

BNE

Mitch --

I don't think there is much you could have said that would have made me feel better than that. Thanks for the reassurance, and I do hope that the remarkable recent increases are only a blip.

(If not, you may have the opportunity to take your pick of PR68 '38s and '39s out of dozens!)

IrishMike

Does anyone wonder any longer why the grading companies are eager to put full torch and full steps on the label buy not the date it was graded?

CarlWohlforth

Barry, have you seen some of those new 68s? I haven't.

I did buy a '39 in 67 that I thought was freshly made. I might be wrong about that, but that is what leads me to believe others might be fresh.

I was thinking about selling my DCAMs for a long time. There was no thought that the market was topping or anything like that. It was that I was stopped on my type set. I couldn't buy any coins at all because I ran out hobby money. I am energized to look at coins again because I know I can afford to buy one or two special coins this year. Anyway I don't think it is raining PR 68 DCAMs from the 50s....

BNE

Hi, Carl! No, I haven't seen the new 68s. They may indeed each merit the grade. I just find it hard to believe that none (for '41 and '42 Type 1) could be located for over a decade and then, within a period of two months, they become pop 3 and pop 4 coins. Has the population of 67s increased by a similar proportion over these last two months? One would think they would, if the bell curve still held. . . .

Similarly, there were two '38s and two '39s in PR68 when I started working on my sets a year and a half ago. Now the numbers have quadrupled and tripled, respectively. I (rightly or wrongly) can't help but connect the sudden appearance of early PR68 Jeffs (and a HUGE pile of new '70s 69DCAMs -- which were always regarded as hard-to-find rarities, as late as six months ago) with the clearing of house at Collectors Universe, and the installation of a new set of graders. The complaints about PCGS' tightness were certainly notorious, and it would not be unusual for a publicly owned corporation to do something to address those complaints.

As far as the beautiful coins you sold many of us, I perhaps misspoke. I simply meant to say that I hope the market continues to be as strong, and that supply and demand are in similar equilibrium if/when I decide to sell my sets. I do agree that DCAM coins from the 50s are exceedingly rare, and I have not noticed many more DCAM coins being recognized than was the case earlier. (Though I DO worry a little that former 67DCAMs may now become 68DCAMs, and that 68DCAMs for the 60s will creep to 69DCAMs. . . ).

cladking

There is no bell curve in market grading of coins. Most natural processes form bell curves,
but this is not a natural process. Grading is determined by various grading criteria and mar-
ket forces which do not affect all coins in all grades the same way at all times. Each of the
parameters of coin grading will normally form a bell curve, but the composite which is held
to market standards has little resemblence to one other than through coincidence. Even if
some coin were minted in such a way that a bell curve were generated it would totally break
down when only the highest grade pices were graded.

These may well have been the result of a single hoarder who finally "cashed in" his multi year
accumulation or perhaps the market has gained sufficient strenght to require less to make MS-68.
While this latter may disturb some long time collectors, it should be remembered that the impli-
cation is that prices have risen enough to support increased populations and that some previous
MS-68's may go MS-69 now. In either case the collector wins.

RGL

Is it possible some beautiful raw proofs/high-end slabbed 67s have been put away for better prices? Perhaps. Is it likely? It would take someone with some deep pockets and a mountain of patience to sit on such coins ... It is hard to imagine many early Jeff proofs hitting 68, but when they come spilling out like this, you have to wonder. As specialists know, it can be difficult to find these coins in even nice PR-66. The "satiny" luster of the 38-42 issues typically falls below the mirrors seen on the later dates and many were subjected to mishandling, etc. The early dates can, in fact, even for gems, be decidedly lackluster. There already is a "discount-added" grading standard in effect on these early issues, in my opinion. A PR-66 for the early dates would be lucky to rate a 65 if the date was post-1950 ... just a few thoughts.

NIckelCollector

It has only been in the last several years that the Jefferson series has gained in popularity. Circulation and proof Jeffersons have seen some significant price gains during this time. With the rise in prices, pop top Jeffersons have also seen a dramatic increase in population for most dates.

Within the Jefferson series, $5000 for a single coin represents perhaps one of the highest $ amounts for a single coin. Of course there are exceptions, but for a coin with typically a 100 coins at the next lower grade this does represent a substantial premium. A similar occurrence happened with MS68FS Jeffersons during this time.

Personally I believe the increase in PF68 & MS68FS population is primarily due to new material entering the market versus a change in grading standards. At $5000 a coin, dealers and collectors are reexamining their holdings. Basically I am agreeing with HRH's opinion.

Whether the increase is due to new material or changing standards, the impact on price will be the same without a corresponding increase in demand. As others have noted recently, the Jefferson market is “dead”. If this is true, prices have only one direction to head in my opinion – down.

At current price levels, I have avoided these coins. If prices come down, I will become an active buyer.

michael

i agree with homerunhalls and cladkings comments

very well said!

sincerely michael

keets

hey randy

i guess i'm somewhere between michael and BNE. i've always expected the 1968-1975 PR69DCAM's to increase and felt certain there would eventually be high grade and CAM/DCAM coins from 1936-1942 made in every series. the speed with which the change has taken place is what has surprised me.

perhaps it's out of laziness, perhaps because you've been on top of the explosion, i haven't tracked it. can you give a comparison of what's been happening with the overall number of submissions in these growing dates at the same time the higher grades have been made?? my feeling is that it isn't an "across the board" bunch of individual collectors submitting all these coins. if that were the case it would seem that one or more of the regulars here would have made some and stepped up to cackle about it!!! aside from my couple of 73's and a few dates made by melikecoins that hasn't happened.

What usually happens is that you'll see a bunch of coins being made for a while as dealers focus on a highly profitable area swooping up the available coins. Then the supply will dry up and dealers will focus elsewhere and very few new coins will be made. It's all part of the cycle. this sounds reasonable to me. and planned. and time consuming. the only flaw from my perspective is that it would seem self-defeating considering the manner in which price is often tied to pop's. stranger things have happened.

hey frank, i think i'll follow your lead!! in fact i have. i put the brakes on my purchases a month or two ago and focused on searching for raw coins and getting a bit organized. no foresight involved, just lucky timing. the waters will clear up come the middle of summer, especially after some late spring buying frenzy at shows.

randy, i'm counting on you to keep tracking this stuff!!

al h.

Russ

Nothing to add, just wanted to pop in and say that this thread is excellent brain food.

Russ, NCNE

foodude

It may seem strange as some have suggested that after 16 years of grading PR 68 Jefferson's from '38-42 show-up in numbers with a short period of time. As some have suggested there may not have been an incentive for the owner to slab them until now. The most interesting piece of information I would like to see are the coins themselves, not just one or tow of them but a number of them.

I put away a number of these coins years ago. I am keeping two PCGS 66/67 sets and have been selling (almost done) the 65s and extra 66s. I've never seen a 68 from '38-42. I would expect and hope them to be "wow" coins that can walk, talk, and glow in the dark.

RGL

Al (and friends): Here is an eyebrow-raising answer to the number of submissions on the early proofs during the past two months ( I will see if I have time to research later dates during the weekend. ) The number of pop-top PR-68 increases, relative to the comparatively small number of coins graded, is fairly staggering, percentage-wise, at roughly around 10 percent or more.

1938: 42 coins graded / 6 PR-68
1939: 14 / 1
1940: 17 / 0
1941: 21 / 2
1942 Ty. 1: 48 / 4
1942- Ty. 2 : 34 / 4

As for the later dates, it has to be bulk dealer submissions. We know from David that one dealer alone was responsible for the overnight doubling of 1975 PR-69 DCAMs ... will try to check others ...

michael

i also agree with nickel collector's comments

he summed it up well

sincerely michael

GQ

Randy....sorry to hear about your undergraded early proof 66's and later 67's. Too Bad....try returning them to PCGS and get a refund or regrade. Must of been a bad grading week. Do you study the coin before you buy it or return "bad" coins? Or do you collect the number only? I refuse to let or allow an undergraded or ugly coin in my registry collections. My early Proofs in 66 and later proofs in 67 are absolute flawless gems. They sparkle and shine like huge opals with liquid fields. Should I sell them in shame at a "huge" discount or upgrade them at PCI?

Keets....I like your raw coin idea. I have been doing that too....alot of nice nickels of all kinds are stowed in dealers boxes. Yesterday I got a lock solid richly toned 1942-D MS65 with Six Full Steps! My local dealer (A super guy) didn't blink an eye and charged me $5.00.

My real question now is if I grade the coin where should I send it? PCGS will give me the ususal FS designation but I'm heavy with 1942-D's and want the Six steps noticed. Any advise (see related thread).....

MY SHAMEFULL UNDERGRADED PR66 AND PR67'S

keets

hey GQ

if i'm not mistaken, ANACS, SEGS, and PCI will note the step count on the insert. NGC will note FS only if it has 6 steps, so you get the notation without getting it. i personally agree with the way ANACS and SEGS grade the series while i think NGC tends to overgrade. no experience with PCI holdered Jefferson's in my collection. so it comes down to personal choice. logically, if you're overloaded with that date in 65-66FS as you said, put it in a hard 2X2 and sock it away.

1940's D mint coins are rather easy through 1946, don't you think?? a local seller has one 1939 T2 and four 1941-D's that he's offered me. all the coins are MS65-66 with nice steps that unfortunately have nicks or bridges. i offered him $6 for the coins and told him we could dicker when we see each other on Tuesday. he wants FS slabbed money for them and i explained to him that they aren't FS or slabbed which he doesn't understand. the $6 offer may not be what they're worth, but it's what i'm willing to pay which is a large and distinct difference.

this particular guy is a Flea market dealer who thinks everyone overgrades while his tendancy is to grade incorrectly. i suspect he has a sizeable stash of coins and he may be testing me for future sales. we like each other so i hope this tree can bear some Nickel fruit down the road.

al h.

GQ

Keets...It seems that the 1942-D was always a "key" coin in the collection, demanding a premium in price. It is interesting how key dates in this series are getting quite populated....everyone went out and slabbed them....thus making them not so rare as per pop numbers. I believe this is collector driven....Jeff people like myself want nice coins in nice holders. The 1940's-D's are all quite nice....I agree.

I must also agree that ANACS and SEGS are putting out some nice Jeffersons. ANACS did write the book on grading Jeffersons years ago before the Registry or before anyone took Jeffersons serious. All my SEGS coins are right on....the variety coins are dead-on. They both will explain the grading, type, die variety, RPM's, mintage, DDR's, DDO's, correct step count and etc. I like that. I have some RPM's that are quite impressive with both. Giving all due credit to PCGS....yes....their grading standard is high and also dead on....I like that too.

I am going to make my first real controversial Forum statement today....I am PCGS true and blue but PCGS Full Step coins are "VAGUE". A full blown full stepper is just that....but I have to scratch my head when I see most if not all FS designated coins. My No Step Collection contains about 33% of coins that can and would make PCGS FS designation. PCGS....you are loosing alot of collectors and money by not doing RPM's...many more popular and distinct that the old '54 and'55 d/s's and s/d's.

I gave my '42-D a nice warm acetone bath and put in in an Intercept Shield 2X2. These are nice! Going to take one of my Vintage Triumph Motorcycles out for a spin today....come back and have a cold beer....and twirl that coin around in my hand for awhile......maybe try to recover from being told I have crummy proofs....Life is good.

WHERE'S THE STEP???

keets

I gave my '42-D a nice warm acetone bath and put in in an Intercept Shield 2X2

SOL!!!!!!--------that would be smiling out loud, not the more readily accepted abbreviation.

i recently started an Intercept Shield Jefferson collection in the folders they make. my goal is toned coins and i have a fairly good start. i'll fill the holes with premo coins and replace them with toners as i find the coins. the kicker is that there are some truly beautiful raw nickels in true MS66 with great colors------to be had for less than $3!!!! as a bonus most FS coins i run into aren't sold as such with any premium and there are so many varieties to look for...............

al h.

RGL

GQ: I am afraid you read something into my post that was not there ... and your tone makes it seem as though you thought I was attacking you personally. How did I indicate your coins were lousy? I never even mentioned you. I was merely stating that it can be difficult to find a nice PR-66. How did you read that as me complaining about undergraded coins? If anything, I was indicating there were/are 66s out there, that in my opinion, don't rate the holder, which, we all know, is true. How you perceived that as a blast at you is way beyond me. You need to read a little more carefully and closely before you start blasting people with insults.