Some General Obvservations Of The St Louis Sale

wondercoin

THESE ARE SOME OBSERVATIONS CONCERNING 20TH CENTURY AND ULTRA MODERN REGISTRY COINS ONLY, EXCLUDING BUFFALO NICKELS WHICH I DID NOT ATTEND IN PERSON OR LOT VIEW. ANYONE WHO FOLLOWED THE BUFFALO NICKELS, PLEASE FEEL FREE TO COMMENT. THIS IS ALSO CONCERNING MY PERSONAL OBSERVATIONS OF THE AUCTION ONLY (not the bourse, etc).

Heritage, as usual, put on a wonderful auction and their accomodations for lot viewing, bidding, etc. were A-1. Their staff was as friendly as friendly could be. I have no doubt they are an outfit that can maximize your return on auction coins. But, I did find interesting what I perceived to be some weakness in sales of certain "Registry Quality" coins at that particular auction, which I will share with you:

1. LINCOLN CENTS: LUKE WARM AT BEST. Ex: An MS67RD 1918(p) Lincoln which I believe sold for well over "five figures" at a prior recent Heritage auction commanded far less this time. Ditto on the 34(d) in MS67RD, which commanded thousands less than just a couple months ago at the Heritage sale. I noticed some softness in neat coins like the 31(s) in 66RD as well and even the 55DD in 65RD just barely met reserve. There are many other examples and, for the most part, if you point to a sensational price (like the 1914(p) in NGC-MS66RD commanding nearly $5,000) it is often due to the "crack out" artists taking a shot at an upgrade.

2. JEFFERSON NICKELS. DEAD. If I am not mistaken, one of those pop 2 PR68 coins from the 1940's commanded around 50% of the asking price just prior to the auction. I let it go, because of my concern of the rising pops. I won the pop 5 1959(d) for under $1500 with the "juice" and had a higher bid left on it to be sure.

3. MERCURY DIMES: ??? I did not follow the mint state coins that closely, but I did win a 1942 PCGS-PR68 for a customer at $2100, where he left a bid with me way over that amount. Perhaps others here can comment on Mercs overall.

4. WASHINGTON QUARTERS: SOLID. I only won 10 out of roughly 2 dozen lots I was pursuing. I bid them based upon quality, so, admittedly, my bids were soft on a few of the "key" coins I was outbid on. But, overall, the quarters showed solid strength and it appears to me Heritage always does well in attracting the bidders for their Wash quarters.

5. STATE QUARTERS: DEAD. I believe neither of the 2 state quarters in the sale sold - those being a 2002 MS69 and a 2002 PR70DCAM. The consignor simply took a shot. Also, several of the MS70 gold Bullion coins and $5 Commems did not sell. I noticed in the "last chance" offerings that many of those failed to sell as well (not sure if that was because prices being sought were on the high side though - perhaps someone can comment?).

6. FRANKLINS: STRONG?? I was outbid on the one Franklin I was pursuing and another coin (the 1951(s) in MS66FBL) I didn't even bother to place a bid on as the coin had been run up so strongly already (close to $5,000). I did not stick around for the floor bidding, so someone can comment here as well if they desire.

7. THE PR70 ROOSIE DIME COLLECTION (FORMER #1 SET). LUKE WARM TO COLD?? I thought the set did AVERAGE at best. I won 7/7 of the coins I was pursuing for a collector, but expected to pay more than I did. Also, the coins I was personally not pursuing in many cases went "for a song". Some Pop "7" - "12" better date PR70's appeared to be closing for a fraction of what I expected them to close at. By way of example only, DHRC just listed a 2002 Proof70 Dime on their site at around $2200. Yet, some of these better date dimes from the 1980's - 1990's in PR70DCAM were closing at around $500 or less (and some less than $400!!). Perhaps Doug Wright from our boards can comment on his impression of the overall sale of Proof Roosies, but my feeling was the coins did not fare that well overall? I will say, however, that the 1968 No S dime in top grade did just fine at around $11k plus the juice.

8. STANDING LIBERTY QUARTERS: ??? I executed (2) bids on some nice SLQ's for a dealer where the coins sold somewhat beneath the bids overall, but not too bad. Also, I believe the 1919(p) in PCGS-MS68 did not sell, but appears to have been reserved for $35,000 plus the juice. I recently sold the other coin (pop 2) for a tiny fraction of that price, so I am not sure that coin not selling says that much about the SLQ market in general.

Wondercoin

dpoole

Interesting stuff, Mitch!

I had a couple of folks look over two Lincolns and a Three Cent Nickel proof for bid. Both came back to tell me that the pieces in question were poor specimens for their grade/designation.

Did you (and others who were there) find that the quality of the coins in the auction were poorer than usual, in general? Does that mean that people are still holding on to their good stuff?

braddick

Thanks Mitch for the excellent read and well thought out analysis. I'm a bit surprised at the Lincolns and Jeffersons but not so much regarding the Roosevelt proofs. It appears there may be opportunity within these series as their overall popularity may have dipped, but certainly will bounce back.

Were there any Kennedies and/or Ikes present in the sale? If so, how did they fare?

If not, what is your overall impression of these two types as of late?

wondercoin

Guys: Excluding Buffalos again (which I hear are ON FIRE) I screened most of the 20th century coins in the auction and, overall, I do believe the quality was a bit lacking. I am not surprised that you heard that the Lincolns were only "so-so" you asked about, as I personally believe the lot was overall. I could give countless examples of lower end coins, but, since some board member may have bought them, I chose not to.

There was nothing in the way of Kennedys or Ikes that I recall seeing, but, I believe a top notch PCGS proof Kennedy set comes up for auction in Long Beach next month and that should be interesting. As many of you know already, I am a big fan of MS Kennedys as a collection. Since I am in the process of offering out some low pop Ikes right now, I will refrain from commenting on that series, as it would be self-serving.

Wondercoin

braddick

Mitch, I respect your reasons for NOT giving us your opinion regarding Ikes right now but disagree it would be self-serving. Anyone and everyone who knows you or has dealt with you would confirm what you write here is honest and forthright, if not sometimes downright brutally honest. Certainly not self serving or self promoting.

To those that would have us believe you are anything but ethical in your opinions and posts here, they are of no consequence anyway.

Just my opinion but one I'm sure I don't share alone.

wondercoin

Ok Pat - I'll tell you what I think.

I see the MINT STATE Ike series as one that has always been regarded as the "black sheep" in the family of the large size dollar coins. Folks try to compare them to Morgans (pops, pricing, etc), but critics are always quick to point out that one is comparing "apples to oranges". You know what I mean.

But, now - something may have changed dramatically to benefit the Ike series. The way I see it, one no longer has to compare Ikes to Morgans to make a case for value. One can compare Ikes to late date wheat cents or modern proof coins or a host of other things that can make a strong arugment for the Ike pricing I believe. Consider this - pop "5" Lincoln cents from the 1940's are now trading upwards of $6,000+/coin where the undergrade coin is worth as little as around $100. Meanwhile, a pop "4" Lincoln proof cent from the 1970's has already commanded "five figures" in a public auction. I am not even taking about $39,000 Lincoln cents from the 1960's - I am talking about coins that are selling routinely now at these levels both publicly at auction and privately. Frankly, if these Lincolns are worth $6,000 - $11,000/coin, it becomes much easier to support prices in that range for pop 4 and 5 Ikes I believe WITHOUT HAVING TO RESORT TO THE EVER DIFFICULT MORGAN DOLLAR COMPARISONS. In fact, not only is it easier, but, IMHO, give me the same low pop Ike any day to the Lincoln cent, as I believe the Ike is a much scarcer coin overall. Do you see my point?

Hence, I personally look for a strong market in mint state Ikes as from a relative basis collectors see "value" in them vis a vis other 20th century coin series. Just my 2 cents.

Wondercoin

mdwoods

Great post Mitch. I didn't attend any of the auctions, so it is nice to hear about what was hot and what was not. I went and looked at the 51 S PCGS MS66FBL Franklin that Mitch mentioned. In fact, I went and looked at it because Mitch told me I should. It was a fantastic color coin. Just the kind I would love to have in my collection. but, at over 5K with juice, it was not something I could afford. And according to 2 Frankie experts, it would not upgrade to a 67. Still, it was lovely. So much, much better looking than the online photo. mdwoods

braddick

Thanks Mitch. I know you haven't always been a fan of the Ike Series, making your opinion even more valid.

Unlike (possibly) other series with smaller coins and larger mintages, I don't see a whole bunch of MS67 Ikes being discovered and made anytime soon- even the MS66 (clad) population will remain somewhat static.

Neat coin with lots of potential, in my opinion. Not a large run of coins needed to complete a set and the different metal composition and design changes (1976) make it an interesting set too.
Couple that with coins that sport lustrous surfaces and others that have a Matte appearance and others still with mirrored and CAMEO appeal and I think of it as a winning series.

It is also somewhat difficult to locate in Superb GEM grades, across the board, yet pricing is still within reason for the Collector.

cladking

It's not nearly so likely to seem self serving if I sing Ikes praises, since I have a very
small position in them relative to other moderns like the clad quarters. Many people
claim moderns are uncollectible because few have been slabbed and populations are
sure to grow from present levels. I certainly don't follow this logic, but Ikes are the "on-
ly" moderns for which this is just not true. Ikes have been getting slabbed for many
years. While most mint sets are not cherry picked for the smaller denomination coins,
they are cherried for Ikes. Rolls and bags have also been gone through looking for gems.
The fact is the coins aren't out there because they were simply never made. I collected
clad quarters for years and basically ignored the Ikes because they appeared not to exist
at all in gem. The first gem Ike I saw was in the mid-70's. These are real coins that really
circulated rather than sit in storage for many decades. This is not to imply that the gems
got worn out, just that the coins were used and gems were, are, and will be very scarce.
The reason these are cheap is not that they are common, but rather that demand is low.

By the same token, the population increases in the 1932-1964 coins will not be nearly so
great as some assume. These coins too have been collected for some time and people have
had a chance to get them graded. Many bags and rolls do exist, but substantial numbers
have been checked. There will be pop increases in the moderns(post '64). Even some of the
most common ones have pops under a thousand. Those who buy coins based on population
reports should avoid modern minors, especially proofs, since the numbers will rise as interest
grows.

foodude

There was a beautifully toned NGC 67 Iowa Comm in the Signature sale, or at least it looked that way in the pic. I don't remember the lot numbe. Did anyone get a first hand look at this coin? If yes, please comment.

foodude

The lot number of the Iowa Comm. I was referring to was 7665.

The link is http://www.heritagecoin.com/common/auctions/closedviewlot.asp?s=318&l=7665&sid=30D3CD6652A84D9BAB6E8C29410C040A

Dabigkahuna

Mitch,

Thanks for that well written report. I wish I could have been there but I did have some coins in the Heritage Signature auction so I watched using the "live bidding" feature that Heritage has on Ebay.

I viewed the bidding from Patterns thru the Double Eagles. The gold seemed to have strong bids especially for the gem material. It looked like the Pattern coins were super active! Even the cleaned coins were bring in huge amounts.

I only own one pattern, a proof Silver 1859 50c J-239. I pulled it from the Heritage consignment at the last moment. Im glad I hung onto it.


Larry

michael

wow a great thread with much interesting market observations

hope this can continue after every major show by attendees!

sincerely michael

BNE

Thanks for your report on the Heritage auction, Wondercoin! I ended up winning that 1942 Type 1 Jefferson in PR68. Was the coin attractive in person? It looked very nice on the site.

I thought your comments were on target. DHRC was asking $9250 for a '42 Type 1 in this grade, and -- compared with that -- this purchase looks like a bargain. But I, too, fear "gradeflation." On the other hand, I "need" this coin for my sets, if I want to truly have the best. But I have mixed feelings about this purchase.
Did I overpay? Will new money be coming into this series with the redesign? I'd love to know your opinion.

wondercoin

BNE: If the coin is still pop 2, then you likely bought the DHRC coin, as I know the collector that owns the other piece he bought as a pop 1 and paid a lot of money for. Or, the coin is really pop 3? Probably easy enough question to simply ask DHRC - my guess is the coin is pop 2.

I personally think you did fine on the coin BNE at that level since you needed it for your set (and it was nice). I simply did not want to stock the coin for $5k+ myself in light of what has been happening with Jeff proofs lately. Of course, the 1942 is not a "modern" coin per se, but it is a coin that generally commands just a few hundred dollars in the undergrade, so I personally felt uncomfortable with it at this point (as did at least one other serious proof nickel dealer I spoke to about the coin). This is not to say the coin shouldn't be worth $6k or $7k today, but, to tell you the truth, I would personally chose the pop 2 Wash quarter proofs at slightly higher price levels myself rather than the Jeffersons simply due to the stronger demand for proof quarters of those years.

And, BNE - a question for you, as I am interested what a sophisticated proof Jeff nickel collector has to say. Ignore the pop reports for a moment. Do you think a 1938 or 1939 nickel in PR68 is as scarce as a 1942 in PR68? There has been ample trading history on the 1938 and 1939 coins in PR68 around $4k - $5k as I recall. SHOULD A 1942 REALLY BE WORTH MORE THAN A 1939? If so, tell me why (without resorting to a pop report). In short, I personally think the 1942 nickel found its "true level" (or close to it) in that auction. Wondercoin.

Russ

<< <i>but, I believe a top notch PCGS proof Kennedy set comes up for auction in Long Beach next month and that should be interesting. >>



Bear's number one registry set, The Jay Ross Collection, is being handled by Goldberg. It's also included in their eBay Live auction.

For those interested, the listings for the set start here.

Reading the descriptions and looking at some of the estimates and minimums, it's obvious Goldberg isn't used to handling moderns.

Russ, NCNE

BNE

Thanks very much for your input, Mitch. I really appreciate your pulse on the market. It may indeed be the DHRC coin -- although Heritage's photos make it look very different. I am anxious to eyeball it, and expect to receive it later this week.

In answer to your question, I consider the '38 (5/0) and '39 (6/0) Proof Jefferson to be a "rarer" coin at the PR68 grade -- regardless of what the populations say. 1942 Type 1's seem to "come nice" a lot more often than other early years -- witness the huge number that exist in 67. (The one currently in my DCAM/CAM set is stunning, with notable cameo contrast -- it really "belongs" more there than the one I just bought.) With '38 and '39, you have to take your time to find a nice example in 67, and the absolute rarity of the first two years is more apparent, compared with a '42 Type 1.

Other, very subjective, factors would make me guess that the '38 and '39 would be more sought-after issues in PR68, too: 1938 is the first year of issue which, to me, makes it an important coin -- it is important to get your set started with a bang. Plus, both 1938 and 1939 have interesting varieties.

I did keep the approx. $5000 going price for the first two years of issue in mind while bidding, although I was prepared to go slightly higher. I am very happy bidding stopped where it did and I think this is the right price for the coin at a pop anywhere from 2-5 (as long as they don't go and make a 69 now!!).

As far as the collector who bought this coin when it was a pop 1, I can understand his motivation, and can only say "ouch!!" I wish regime changes at the top of PCGS didn't cause these fluctuations and fears.

Thanks, again!

pontiacinf

thanks alot mitchell...

making me ree-think a few things

wondercoin

BNE: Good analysis on 1938/9 vs. 42!

And, if you do decide to stay with your slightly cameo 67 piece, just let me know and I may be able to get you a small profit on the Heritage coin (so long as the pop does not go up in the meantime!!)

Wondercoin

greghansen

It is the occasional thread like this that causes me to wade through all the other nonsense to find these nuggets. What can I add other than my sincere thanks for your decision to share.

Typetone

Proof Mercury Dimes seem to be cold. When the telemarketer dropped his bids the market began to return to more normal levels. These are great coins, but the prices got ahead of themselves. I really like the value of the 42, 39, and 37 PCGS PR68s if they can be had in the $2K to $3K range. I love the 40 and 41 in PCGS PR 68 up to $4K and more for superior examples. I don't really like the 36 in PCGS PR67 at current levels.

MS C/N IKEs in MS67 are not usually available. Those who have them rarely sell. If you want an example and Mitch has them to offer, step-up. These are rare coins. I see no sign they are dropping in value since I sold my collection 9 months ago. 65s and 66s got ahead of themselves and are coming down to Earth. Now might be a good time to do a set. I price IKEs for Travers price guide (only in MS65). I worked on the 2004 prices in April. They have come off some.

Any comments on what better date and grade cameo proof Franklins are doing. Seems like they have been dropping for awhile. Any change yet? For example a 52 in PCGS 66CAM or a 53 in PCGS 67CAM were probably $2,500 coins two to three years ago. Where are they now?

Greg

solid

Great information and insights all around!!!

RGL

Mitch and BNE, thanks for your enlightening discussion of the PR-68 42 Ty. 1. I agree wholeheartedly that the 1938 and 1939 are rarer/more desirable in the same grade. I think BNE did well on the price paid, I had forecast this coin going around $5,500. It was vastly overpriced by DHRC.