Slabbing key dates -- circulated coins in popular series

Higashiyama

The thread on survival of 1916-D mercury dimes is interesting, and raises the question as to whether PCGS/NGC population report yield any meaningful insight into survival rates for certain coins.

For key coins, suchs as 1909-S VDB, 1916-D dime, or 1893-S Morgan, which are highly collectable in well circulated condition, what percentage have likely been slabbed?

NGC has slabbed about 500 1909-S VDB circulated cents, a similar number of circulated 1916-D dimes, but around 800 1893-S circulated dollars. Can we conclude that the survival of the dollar is higher?


(NGC has slabbed 158 1916-D dimes in Poor/AG, which must be the most of any coin!)

ARCO

I have a theory that most coins will circulate back from old time collectors or hoarders about every 30 to 40 years. Once the collector dies, either his/her heirs or the collector before he passes will sell off his collection. Since many collectors collected coins before the advent of the grading services they feel no need to have their coins graded until it is time to sell.

Grading started in earnest in 1896 or so. Which is 17 years worth of grading. Taking a 40 year cycle that means we have seen roughly 1/3 of the key dates slabbed for sale. Secondly we have to take into effect re-submissions. I don't think that circulated coins are resubmitted as often as MS coins, but as a guess I would dare say that 10-20 percent of the population number are resubmissions.

Therefore, based on that estimate, the current pops for key date coins (which are slabbed to authenticate otherwise very heavily counterfeited dates) are showing perhaps 1/3 of existing coins with a 10-20 percent overvaluation for resubmissions.

As an example: If the 1901-S quarter shows 200 coins graded in all grades (this is an example, not the pop number) by the three major grading services (PCGS, NGC, ANACS) then we have approximately 20-40 coins which are resubmissions. We have perhaps one third of all existing coins. So the estimate would be 1/3 or 160-180 coins accounting for resubmissions times three giving us 480-540 1901-S quarters extant.

Tyler

coinlieutenant

Interesting theory Tyler. Cant say I disagree. It will be intriguing to see how the pops look 10, 20 and 30 years from now to see how your theory stacks up.

John

jdimmick

Tyler, If your theory holds true, maybe one day I will be lucky enough to have a 1901-s Barber Quarter in original VF float out from a old-time collection. God, i hope so!!!!!!!!!!!1111


jim