Is the Jeff Market Dead?
clackamas
Posts: 5,615 ✭
I have 6 submissions with about 70 coin ready to go but looking at the ebay results it sems like the market is dead. Is anyone else observing this?
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a little retrospection might be worthwhile: when i first joined eBay in late 1999 it wasn't unusual for there to be between 100-175 auctions running in a search for PCGS Jefferson and on sat/sun nights the total often sank to less than 80. there are currently 431 running!!!!
here's an example of what's up on the first page in a search of PCGS Jefferson with newly listed auctions first:
17-coins graded MS66 and lower-----non Full Step.
12-coins graded Proof, generic dates and low grade Cameo's.
03-coins graded MS67 non-Full Step.
Several war nickles graded MS66FS which is rather common.
that's close to 40 of the first page which contains 50 listings!!! there are 9 pages total of similar coins a buyer needs to wade through.
what's interesting to me on that page?? not much. there are two 1973-D MS66FS coins, a 1947 MS65FS, a 1962 PR68DCAM and the ever present and certain to end close to $250 1997 SMS MS69FS entry.
the bottom line is simple---way to many coins offered by sellers who are trying to climb aboard the bandwagon and seem to have difficulty understanding and evaluating the series. that's the only plausible explanation for so many common date, low grade coins. PCGS is really not THAT tough in the grading room!!
al h.
TBT
In my opinion this may not be a bad time to put together a set of MS66FS Jeffersons.
Frank
My Jefferson Full Step Variety Set (1938 - Current)
My Jefferson Proof Variety Set (1938 - Current)
Why?
Legislation is waiting the president's signature to issue the 3 year commem 5¢ for Lewis & Clark.
Subsequent to that the Jefferson/Monticello returns. There is the real possibility of a design change here.
That would end the current design.
That's sure to generate huge interest and demand for the series.
Those who can afford to invest and wait are certainly doing so now.
Got quoins?
hey 'crusty'
a good theory but from what i see going on not true, at least with regard to PCGS holdered coins. there has been plenty of activity throughout the entire date range of the series. PCGS even stimulated some of it in the past year by changing the way they grade 1938 steps and starting to designate 1939 T1 and T2 reverses. they are also on the cusp of giving more attention to the many overdate/over mintmarks and varieties in the series if they haven't already done so.
my view based on what i track and read here is that the opposite of what you propose is happening. more material is being given a closer look and sent in for certification. about the only reason i see for coins being held onto by dealers is that they have a set price they expect and are in a position to wait till they get it. a good example is an eBay seller ID of eaglecoin who constantly lists with top of the sheet BIN's which keeps the same coins recycling, sometimes months apart. it's been going on for over 2 years now. the wiser and more practiced approach is the one taken by wondercoin in the past few weeks, turn the coins over and get the cash back into something else.
holding onto stuff as you suggest is right there with that nasty coin collecting word-----investing. that's risky at best and costly at worst.
al h.
Glen
that 1950-P in a PCGS MS66FS would sell no problem, probably $800-$1500 on eBay. the last one i show on eBay sold for $2,075 in early December of 2001 when the pop was 2 with none higher. that's one of the tougher dates in the series. i've yet to even find a raw coin with more than 2 steps.
those 1950-1970 dates are really strange compared with the coins minted since 1970. they seem cleaner on the obverse, less marks, with a weaker reverse strike. the earlier dates i find are better grade wise, the later dates are better step wise. what a quandry!!
if you have a raw 1950-P and you think it's a 66FS, Bravo and send that bugger in. i'll watch for the pop to grow by 1 and wait for the picture to post!!
al h.
Not to bash "Bob" but he has the most obvious doctored "BU RED" Lincoln cents on Ebay. Personally I would not believe any of his coins are "PQ". Bob "BU RED"
i was only using eagle as an example because their listings stick out in my files like a sore thumb. the point that i was trying to make is really an auction-across-the-board thing. why go to auction with a coin, or anything for that matter, if the intention is to offer it for sale?? there's a difference between the two.
al h.
Saw this happen with the MS State Quarters. An MS67/68 that sold for $95++, now under $25. Now the latest fad are the MS69's. Many are paying "stupid money" for these coins. Every year the mint improves the dies etc and seeing many more 69's.
Plus, how many tens of thousands of mint sets, rolls etc are sitting in collector's safes that can come into the market down the road. We''ll see many $1200-$2000 MS69's become $150 MS69's. Happened with the MS67/68's, just a matter of time until the 69's drop like a rock. Bet as the years go on, the focus will be on MS70's, then what?
On the proof side I'm seeing more and more PR70DCAMS in all years showing up on POP reports. These went for $2500+, now you can pick up some for $1250. Sure some of the early 70 collector's are saying OUCH!!! now as several more 70's are populating the series.
If you looked at POP report 6 months ago, less than 20 coins enjoyed this grade. It has more than tripled. Just give me my PR69DCAM's for $17 and in a few year's will start picking up the 70's at 25% or less than the current price levels.
A lot of this has to do with the Registry. Paying stupid money to be in top 5. But some collector's buy the position without any regard to the trends that are evident or other very apparant factors being overlooked. With 5 years to go, I'll buy my 70's down the road and move up without having to hock my car, house and wife's jewelry. And smile as those $3000 PR70DCAMS are well under $500. Well, at least these early 70 collector's can talk about the "good ole days" when only a handful of them owned a 70DCAM.
But tears in their eyes when they try and convince a buyer to pay them $3000+ for their 70's when the marketing is trending at $500. Oh well, they are sitting on their top perch now, broke but proud of their #3 set. But they're sitting on a very week perch that will eventually break and fall.
FS nickels are in short supply.
Glen
I like them because the cobo of full steps and ms65 is very hard to find in mint sets.
Last weekend was nice because there were many auctions ending. I think this helped keep some of the prices down.
I picked up 3 jems 88P, 89P, and 96D.
a 1978 ms65fs went for $350.
I wonder what prices will be like next year with the new design?
I bought a roll of 97d and 98d nickels off ebay. The majority of the coins in the rolls were the correct date.
I think the companies that roll the coins pour the new ones in along with the old. I sent the 1 of each date in for
grading. They are full steps, but I don't think I will get the 65. What's up with with 97 and 98? They are also difficult
dates for halves as well as nickels.
My wife hates it but sometimes I go to the bank and get $10 worth of nickels. I can usualy find a couple from th 50's.
I've found some from the 30's and 40's 2 silver nickels so far.
people noticing the new design and hearing all the talk about design changes.
Congress can as quickly overturn the new law freezing the reverse design as
they enacted it! The primary thing holding back prices on most moderns is the
paltry demand. Even a small increase in demand can translate to significantly
higher prices on the rarities and on the gems!
Mint sets nickels tend to be disappointments for nearly every modern date. Very
few will go MS-65 OR full step. Finding one which is both is very tough. The best
nickels do come from mint sets but this can be hard to remember after looking
through a few dozen and finding little of interest. Gem nickels and gem Ikes are
the toughest of the moderns to find, but at least with the Ikes you'll find a lot more
of the just missed coins. Rolls are very hit or miss with large numbers of misses,
frequently missing by a wide margin.